Another flooding mega-disaster: Sri Lanka recovers from extreme flooding
At least 43 are dead and thousands still in refugee camps due to extreme flooding in eastern Sri Lanka caused by record monsoon rains. According to the United Nations, the rains in recent weeks in Sri Lanka have been the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping, and the flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Sri Lanka's previous most devastating flooding disaster was the 2004 tsunami, but as The Economist commented, "in terms of the numbers of people displaced and farmland inundated, the floods have been even more devastating than the tsunami of December 2004." Damage estimates start at $500 million, and much of Sri Lanka's agriculture has been severely damaged by the disaster. Also of concern is the large number of land mines from the recent Sri Lanka civil war that may have been unearthed by the floods. Water is also a major concern in the flood-hit area, as fighting between government forces and Tamil Tigers rebels from mid-2007 to May 2009 damaged or destroyed almost all of the water facilities.
Figure 1. A family affected by the 2011 Sri Lanka floods braves the flood waters. Image credit: United Nations.
Sri Lanka is now the fifth nation in the past six month to suffer a flooding disaster unprecedented in its history. As I reported in a previous post, the other four mega-impact floods--the July 2010 Pakistan floods, the December - January Queensland Australia floods, the November 2010 Colombia floods, and the January 2011 Rio de Janeiro floods--were all accompanied by an atmosphere laden with moisture, due, in part, due to sea surface temperatures over nearby ocean areas that were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record. However, that was not the case for the Sri Lanka floods. Ocean temperatures during December 2010 were 0.2°C below average in the 5x5 degree square of ocean adjoining the island (5N - 10N, 80E - 85E). The floods appear to be due to the normal monsoon rains that typically affect the region this time of year, enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific.
Figure 2. Satellite-estimated precipitation over Sri Lanka for January 3 - 9. Up to 18 inches (525 mm) fell over eastern Sri Lanka. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Jeff Masters
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Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
was there a mass banning
real quiet
LOL
Sarah,your constituents deserved you.
They should probably talk with DR. Phil (is he a climatologist or meteorologist?)about the extent of warming, in that timeframe, shown in those graphs. He does not agree :)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm
LOL...never heard that before ! Thanks
Global warming is affecting the seasons. Autumn and winter are coming later in many places; spring is coming earlier. If you look at a typical lake or maybe a stream in the far North it melts earlier in the spring and it freezes later in the fall. The very timing of the seasons is changing such that the food sources for some insects and birds are not in the places they are supposed to be when the migrations of these creatures arrive at the place where they are expected to be fed. And so, the very timing of nature and the seasons is being upset by global warming.
If this is true, a valid question would be:
Is GW going to alter Hurricane Seasons? Are we going to see hurricanes more frequent in off season months?
Time will tell us the anwser....
Actual Data - How many hurricanes have there been in each month?
Link
[PDF]
migratory species and climate change
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View
Disrupted breeding, barriers to migration and increased disease transmission are just some of the threats migratory species face from Climate Change. ...
Glossed right over that, myself...
Global Analysis
Annual 2010
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
Global Highlights
* For 2010, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record, at 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). 1998 is the third warmest year-to-date on record, at 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average.
* The 2010 Northern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest year on record, at 0.73°C (1.31°F) above the 20th century average. The 2010 Southern Hemisphere combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the sixth warmest year on record, at 0.51°C (0.92°F) above the 20th century average.
* The global land surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the second warmest on record, at 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20th century average. The warmest such period on record occurred in 2007, at 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average.
* The global ocean surface temperature for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average.
* In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which influences temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. A moderate-to-strong El Niño at the beginning of the year transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
Please Note: The data presented in this report are preliminary. Ranks and anomalies may change as more complete data are received and processed. Effective with the July 2009 State of the Climate Report, NCDC transitioned to the new version (version 3b) of the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. ERSST.v3b is an improved extended SST reconstruction over version 2. This report uses the ERSST.v3b dataset to assess the entire year. Therefore, values for individual months of January-June presented in this report may differ slightly from those reported when ERSST.v2 was the operational dataset. For more information about the differences between ERSST.v3b and ERSST.v2 and to access the most current data, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
Global Temperatures
The year 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year since records began in 1880. The annual global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average. The range associated with this value is plus or minus 0.07°C (0.13°F). The 2010 combined land and ocean surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was also the warmest on record, while the combined land and ocean surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere was the sixth warmest such period on record. The annual globally averaged land temperature was 0.96°C (1.73°F) above average, which tied with 2005 as the second warmest year record. The range associated with this value is plus or minus 0.11°C (0.20°F). The warmest year was 2007, at 0.99°C (1.78°F) above the 20th century average. The decadal global land and ocean average temperature anomaly for 2001–2010 was the warmest decade on record for the globe, with a surface global temperature of 0.56°C (1.01°F) above the 20th century average. This surpassed the previous decadal record (1991–2000) value of 0.36°C (0.65°F).
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, affecting weather patterns in many parts of the world. The year began in a moderate-to-stong warm (El Niño) phase. The globally averaged January ocean surface temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 1998—a year that also began with a strong El Niño. Temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific declined through the year, although the ENSO warm phase offically remained through April. The global ocean surface temperatures for the period January–April were the second warmest on record, behind 1998. In May, sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled below the El Niño threshold (0.5°C), signifying a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. By July, ENSO officially shifted into a cold (La Niña) phase as the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean continued to cool to below-average temperatures. With La Niña firmly in place, and central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures continuing to cool, the globally averaged ocean temperature for the period September–November was tenth warmest on record. For the period January–December, the shift from a warm phase to a cold phase ENSO contributed to a globally averaged ocean surface temperature anomaly of 0.49°C (0.88°F) above the 20th century average, tying with 2005 as the third warmest such period on record. The range associated with this value is plus or minus 0.06°C (0.11°F). 2003 and 1998 tied for the warmest years on record, at 0.51°C (0.92°F) above average. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), La Niña was expected to peak during the end of 2010 into early 2011 and last at into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011 with a lesser intensity.
2010 Global Significant Weather and Climate Events
Global precipitation in 2010 was well above the 1961–1990 average, ranking as the wettest on record since 1900. Precipitation throughout the year was variable in many areas. Regionally, drier than average conditions were widespread across much of French Polynesia, the Solomon Islands, Hawaiian Islands, northwestern Canada, extreme northwest and northeast Brazil, and southern Peru. The wettest regions included most of Central America, much of India, southwestern China, east Asia, Borneo, and parts of Australia.
January–December 2010 Global Precipitation Anomalies
Canada experienced its driest winter (December 2009–February 2010) since national records began in 1948, with 22 percent below-average precipitation. According to Environment Canada, many locations across Ontario, Canada received no snow or traces of snow during March 2010, setting new low snowfall records. Toronto City, which typically receives 22 cm (8.7 inches) of snow during March recorded no snow this year. This broke the low snowfall record which dates as far back as 1898. To the west, Alaska had its third driest January on record since 1918.
Levi, the Northeast (or Repeating, or Winter) Monsoon is a standard winter feature for Sri Lanka (and other areas in and around the Indian Ocean). Up to 70% of that nation's annual rain falls during that time.
More...
More...
More...
Please see post 322.
That said the earth is warming up and man maybe accellerating it. We need to do what we can and in reasonable to not pollute the earth and come up with renewable energy because with in the next 50 years we won't have oil to live off of like we do today.
It was a major outlier for one,and data was sparse for two. Even now, there are explanations being given that range from low solar to the very strength of the La Nina itself. I personally feel the latter is unlikely, one does intensify a signal for southern and eastern US warmth and expect it to turn colder. However the combination of events.. low solar, previous volcanic activity, the rapid drop of global temps with a cold PDO, not warm, and stochastic forcing ( random reactions to previous events) may all have something to do with this. In any case one can look for temps from the northern and central plains east to run below normal into and through much of February, with warmth over the interior southwest trying to come out into Texas. A period where the weather does break and it turns warmer in the areas targeted for that may occur later in Feb into March, but a cold and storm mid and late March into April should develop across the northern part of the nation. The northeast and lakes, which had the warmest March and April back to back last year on record will be far from it this year.
While Feb will not be as cold and snowy for the south and east as last year, it will still be more wintery than I had it portrayed, though again, the biggest snowstorms as is now becoming obvious will be mainly north of I-40 in the plains, the Ohio river and Mason Dixon line further east. In the end, the mid and late winter "battle ground" that was highlighted will still be there ( its actually showing its colors already) but lined up south of the axis I had, more like a center point of Amarillo to Atlantic City than Denver to Durham New Hampshire.
by joe b
New World Post-Pandemic Reforestation Helped Start Little Ice Age, Say Scientists
So part of the 'little ice age' can be attributed to the reforestation in the Americas.
There're other reasons for the little ice age, as is mentioned here:
LOL
As there's a flood out in California
And up North it's freezing cold
And this living on the road
Is getting pretty old
So I guess, I'll call up my big mama
Tell her I'll be rolling in
But you know, deep down
I'm kind of tempted
To go and see my Bessie again
So,
Wazzzzz up!!!!!!! ;)
Atmo, I was up your way yesterday when the rain came through. The rain was horizontal at times.
(horizontal) That, it was!
Energy from the Sun Has Not Increased
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
August 27, 2009
Subtle connections between the 11-year solar cycle, the stratosphere, and the tropical Pacific Ocean work in sync to generate periodic weather patterns that affect much of the globe, according to research appearing this week in the journal Science. The study can help scientists get an edge on eventually predicting the intensity of certain climate phenomena, such as the Indian monsoon and tropical Pacific rainfall, years in advance.
An international team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) used more than a century of weather observations and three powerful computer models to tackle one of the more difficult questions in meteorology: if the total energy that reaches Earth from the Sun varies by only 0.1 percent across the approximately 11-year solar cycle, how can such a small variation drive major changes in weather patterns on Earth?
The answer, according to the new study, has to do with the Sun's impact on two seemingly unrelated regions. Chemicals in the stratosphere and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean respond during solar maximum in a way that amplifies the Sun's influence on some aspects of air movement. This can intensify winds and rainfall, change sea surface temperatures and cloud cover over certain tropical and subtropical regions, and ultimately influence global weather.
Link
Global surface temperature (top, blue) and the Sun's energy received at the top of Earth's atmosphere (red, bottom). Solar energy has been measured by satellites since 1978.
The amount of solar energy received at the top of our atmosphere has followed its natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, but with no net increase. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. This indicates that it is extremely unlikely that solar influence has been a significant driver of global temperature change over several decades.
By Alister Doyle, Environment CorrespondentPosted 2011/01/16 at 3:45 pm EST
OSLO, Jan. 16, 2011 (Reuters) %u2014 Shrinking ice and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is reflecting ever less sunshine back into space in a previously underestimated mechanism that could add to global warming, a study showed.
Satellite data indicated that Arctic sea ice, glaciers, winter snow and Greenland's ice were bouncing less energy back to space from 1979 to 2008. The dwindling white sunshade exposes ground or water, both of which are darker and absorb more heat.
The study estimated that ice and snow in the Northern Hemisphere were now reflecting on average 3.3 watts per square meter of solar energy back to the upper atmosphere, a reduction of 0.45 watt per square meter since the late 1970s.
The price of climate change?
By MICHAEL RICHARDSON
SINGAPORE — Generations of Australians have learned that their island-continent is a land of alternating droughts and floods. Recent prolonged rain and devastating flooding across eastern Australia, particularly in the state of Queensland, underscore this heartbreaking cycle.
Weather experts say that the immediate cause is natural: a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature of the central Pacific Ocean along the equator and in air pressure of the atmosphere above. Known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it affects weather patterns in many parts of the Pacific, including Australia and Southeast Asia.
However, there are also signs that that ENSO itself may be affected by man-made climate change. As Queensland counts the heavy financial cost, some fear that the economic disruption and damage to industry and infrastructure may be repeated more often and more intensely in Australia in future. Losses to the Queensland economy and the cleanup bill are expected to exceed $10 billion. The national growth rate may also take a hit. Queensland is Australia's largest coal exporter — mainly to Asia — and accounts for about 20 percent of the country's $1.2 trillion economy, which relies heavily on mineral, energy and farm exports.
ENSO has two extreme phases in its typical seesaw every three to eight years. One, El Nino, is associated with hotter than normal temperatures and diminished rainfall. The other, La Nina, usually brings above-average wet weather and lower temperatures.
The Australian government's Bureau of Meteorology said earlier this month that the La Nina phase bringing the deluge to eastern Australia was the strongest since at least the mid-1970s. As a result, Australia had its third wettest year on record in 2010.
Indonesia's Met Office reported recently that rain across the far-flung island-nation would continue until June. It said the dry season, which normally starts in April and lasts until October, would only start in July. Meanwhile, Brazil and Sri Lanka have been hit by unusually heavy and damaging downpours, just as northern Europe and much of the United States feel the bite of abnormally frigid winter weather.
Despite these bursts of wet and cold weather, two leading U.S. climate agencies said on Jan. 12 that the average land and sea surface temperature last year tied with 2005 as the warmest on record since data collection started in 1880. The global temperature was 0.62 degree Celsius above the 20th-century average.
Attributed by many scientists to the growing release of carbon dioxide, methane and other global-warming gases from human activity into the atmosphere, this temperature rise is happening at the same as the natural ENSO cycle. James Hansen, director of one of the U.S. climate agencies, said that the average global temperature increased as fast in the past decade as in the prior two decades, despite year-to-year fluctuations associated with ENSO.
A summary on the state of the Australian climate published last year by the Met Bureau and the CSIRO, Australia's leading scientific research organization, said that in the past 50 years the mean temperature in Australia had risen by about 0.7 C and was projected to increase further by 0.6 to 1.5 C by 2030. It said that if global greenhouse gas emissions continued to grow at business-as-usual rates, Australia could be 2.2 to 5.0 C hotter by 2070.
Scientists say that the warming trend increases the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts and floods. In addition to being the equal hottest year ever, 2010 was also the wettest on record. A hotter world causes more evaporation from land and oceans. A warmer atmosphere holds and releases more water, which can mean more violent storms and bigger floods.
The equatorial expanse of the Pacific, which is far larger than the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, is critical to the development of ENSO. During La Nina, trade winds blowing west bring moist air to northern Australia and Indonesia. Heated by the tropical sun and warm water, the air rises to create towering bulbous clouds and heavy rainfall.
A question that must concern Australia and Southeast Asia is whether man-made global warming from burning fossil fuels and clearing forests is intensifying natural weather patterns like ENSO and, if so, how?
It is clear that if an exceptionally dry El Nino phase occurs against the backdrop of long-term man-made global warming, one will make the other hotter. This happened in Indonesia in 1997-98 during the Asian financial crisis when forest fires spread haze pollution across Southeast Asia.
Some scientists also think that there is a link between rising global sea temperature and the strength of ENSO cycles. The annual climate statement by the Australian Met Bureau, issued on Jan. 5, noted that sea-surface temperatures in the Australian region last year were the warmest on record, 0.54 C above the 1961 to 1990 average. The last decade was also the warmest on record for sea surface temperatures. The statement added that "very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring."
Echoing the scientific panel advising the United Nations on climate change, the Australian Met Bureau-CSIRO assessment for 2010 said that there was a greater than 90 percent certainty that increases in greenhouse gas emissions have caused most of the global warming since the mid-20th century.
If those who believe that man-made global warming gases are intensifying extreme ENSO weather are right, the flood devastation in Australia is a warning that we upset the complex climate system at our own peril.
Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of South East Asian Studies in Singapore.
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