Potentially historic winter storm poised to impact 100 million Americans
A huge and potentially historic winter storm is taking shape over the Southern Plains today. By the time the storm exits New England on Wednesday night, as many as 50 million Americans may see heavy snows of at least 6 inches or dangerous ice accumulations of 1/4" or more from the massive storm, and 100 million will be affected by the storm. A potent jet stream with strong winds will dive southwards over the central U.S. today, allowing a cold Arctic airmass to spill southwards out of Canada. In front of this cold air, a flow of very warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northwards, providing copious moisture to fuel snowfall amounts that will likely approach two feet across portions of Iowa and Illinois on Tuesday. The storm could be Chicago's biggest blizzard since January 1999, when a storm dumped 21.6" of snow. Accompanying the heavy snow on Tuesday will be strong winds gusting to 40 mph in Northern Illinois and Northwest Indiana, and a blizzard watch is posted for Chicago. Strong winds in Chicago are expected to generate 14 - 18 feet waves on Lake Michigan, with occasional waves up to 25 feet. A significant coastal flooding event is possible for Chicago, with beach erosion and flooding along Lake Shore Drive. Many major cities will likely receive over 8 inches of snow from the storm, including Kansas City, St. Louis, and Detroit. Perhaps of greater concern is the potential for a major ice storm along a swath from Northwest Oklahoma to Massachusetts. Widespread freezing rain is expected to bring over 1/4" of ice to many major cities, including St. Louis, Indianapolis, Columbus, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. Some regions could see up to an inch of ice, and widespread power outages due to toppled power lines are likely for millions of people. Damages exceeding $1 billions are possible from this ice storm. In addition, the storm's powerful cold front will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms to the deep South. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is giving Louisiana and surrounding states a "slight risk" of severe weather on Tuesday, and severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are likely Tuesday afternoon in this region.
Figure 1. Probability of receiving at least 1/4" of ice for the 24 hours ending at 7am EST on Wed Feb 2, 2011. Image credit: NOAA.
Very dangerous Tropical Cyclone Yasi headed for Australia's flooded Queensland
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here, and the waters surrounding Australia have been exceptionally active over the past week. We had the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones last week, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma brushed New Zealand, bringing flooding and landslides to the North Island, and was the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca skirted the west coast of Australia and dissipated before making landfall. Tropical Cyclone Anthony hit flood-ravaged Queensland, Australia, over the weekend, as a weak tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. Fortunately, Anthony dropped only modest amounts of rain, and no new flooding disaster occurred in Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.
Queensland is in serious danger of renewed extreme flooding this week from Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Yasi has intensified to a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, and is undergoing a period of rapid intensification that is expected to take it to Category 4 strength. Yasi is expected to hit Queensland on Wednesday, probably as a major Category 3 or stronger storm. In addition the storm's damaging winds and storm surge, Yasi will bring torrential rains. The GFS model is predicting that Yasi will dump 5 - 10 inches of rain over a large swath of Queensland, which would likely cause destructive flooding.
One positive note: the European Center model was remarkably accurate predicting the formation of Yasi over a week in advance, so Queensland has had plenty of time to prepare for the arrival of the storm.
Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 23:20 GMT on January 30, 2011. At the time, Yasi was a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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1-3 inches is the conservitive side, the high end is 6-8 inches but they wont go there yet!
That would be incredible.
This is one of the fastest temperature drops i have ever witnessed first hand.... 30 degrees drop in about 30 minutes.
And then another arctic front the early to middle portion of next week.
It gets cold ,and come Thurs Friday a Gulf Low is going to Tozz some Moisture over a Large area along the GOM Coast and inland.
Stay Tuned..
Itsa gonna get dicey for a lotta folk.
EMMY I LOVE YOU!!!!!
Morning folks.
Good luck, Keep.
Click for large animated image:
the temp here between sunday 33C(91.4F) and monday 24C (75.2F) or 9C(48.2F)
I see Yasi on radar. Yasi will move right over this radar site, just hope it stays online.
Updated: Tue Feb 1 14:00:03 UTC 2011
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E TX...NRN/CNTRL LA...WCNTRL MS...SRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011246Z - 011445Z
STRONG PV-ANOMALY WAS MOVING INTO E TX/SRN OK AT DAYBREAK. INTENSE
LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN AN INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE OVER FAR E TX. 12Z SHV
SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT STORMS ARE LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH
ABOUT AN 800 METER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...RECENT
STRENGTHENING OF STORMS AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. MEANWHILE...E OF THE LINE...E-W
ORIENTED WARM ADVECTION DERIVED BANDS OF STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING...PRIMARILY OVER SRN AR AND NRN LA. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WERE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL
PRODUCTION WITH THESE STORMS.
IF STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE/INTENSIFY...PARTICULARLY THE SQUALL
LINE...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
..RACY.. 02/01/2011
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 33929394 34419223 33739023 32369016 31299090 30669231
30529269 30879448 31909411 33929394
Willis island, Australia wunderground page and WunderMap®
12:30am
Temp: 28.2c
Air temp: 21.5c
Dew point: 23.6c
Humidity: 76%
Wind Direction: SSE
10min speed: 65km (35kts)
Gusts 80km: (43kts)
Pressure: 998.9hPa
Rainfall: 9.0mm
Hey, i am well over 1000miles away from Cairns
Viewing: 551 - 573
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