Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Renewed flooding in Sri Lanka kills 11, affects 1.05 million
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:21 GMT le 07 février 2011 +4
Renewed flooding in Sri Lanka due to heavy monsoon rains has killed at least 11 people and inundated the homes of 1.05 million people over the past week. The floods occurred over the central, north, and east portions of the island, and have the potential to devastate the rice crop and cause hundreds of millions in damage. Many of the areas affected were also hard-hit by January's 100-year flood, which killed 43 people, affected over 1 million people, and did at least $500 million in damage. Those floods destroyed 21% of Sri Lanka's rice crop. Heavy rains from the annual northeastern monsoon are common in the region from December through February, but this year's rains have been enhanced by the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. According to the United Nations, the rains in January in Sri Lanka were the heaviest in nearly 100 years of record keeping. The flood that resulted was a 1-in-100 year event, according to The U.N. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. Rainfall at Batticaloa, Sri Lanka, during the 42-day period December 1 - January 12 was 1606 mm (63"), which is about how much rain the station usually receives in an entire year (1651 mm, or 65".) Satellite estimates of rainfall over Sri Lanka for the first week of February show that up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain has fallen. The latest rainfall forecast from the GFS model projects that a tropical disturbance (91B) near Sri Lanka will bring an additional 1 - 3 inches of rain to the flood area this week, so the flood waters will be slow to recede.


Figure 1. AP video of the latest flooding in Sri Lanka.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Flood
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51. Skyepony (Mod) 19:27 GMT le 07 février 2011    
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FLAGLER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 300 PM EST

* AT 212 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRESCENT CITY...OR 7 MILES EAST OF SALT
SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CRESCENT CITY...ANDALUSIA...BUNNELL...PALM COAST AND FLAGLER BEACH.


radar
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29958
52. weathermanwannabe 19:30 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Afternoon............Impressive looking squall line for this time of the year approching Central and South Florida. Hopefully nothing too severe emerge from this one but I don't like the pattern that seems to be setting up for March and April when the stronger ones will show up.
Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6858
53. iceagecoming 19:49 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting tkeith:
I just voted in the poll Doc has up, and when I saw the results, I was kinda shocked.
The comments on Wonderpress blog are overwhelmingly negative. The results of the poll are overwhelmingly positive.

"hanging chads"?



That seems to be consistent with the regulars around
here, par for the course.


http://sidc.oma.be/

Solar activity at all time low, I wonder what that
will be construed as, we'll see.
Member Since: 27 janvier 2009 Posts: 21 Comments: 853
55. SQUAWK 20:11 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




Back to the news axiom. "If it bleeds - it leads!"
Member Since: 9 décembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2497
56. pmagn 20:12 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.





These are desperate times my friend!

And the weather/climate is the culprit.
Member Since: 19 juillet 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6
57. Grothar 20:14 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




Funny you should mention that, did you see this?

DELRAY BEACH — With blue- and purple-colored, balloon-looking animals lining the beach all weekend, it's not hard to believe Delray Beach Ocean Rescue's James Scala when he says 197 people were stung by Portuguese man-of-war on Sunday alone.

Scala said 46 people were stung Friday, and another 84 on Saturday at Delray Beach.

Clint Tracy, a Boca Raton Ocean Rescue captain, said the man-of-war were first seen on the beach Thursday.

Lifeguards flew purple warning signs to notify swimmers.

He said many of the man-of-war were probably pushed to the shore by winds blowing east.

Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19672
58. CycloneUK 20:14 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




Disaster is exiting to us. I feel it too.
Member Since: 5 Mars 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:18 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41329
60. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:19 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Magnitude 6.2 - SOLOMON ISLANDS
2011 February 07 19:53:42 UTC
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41329
61. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:22 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41329
62. PakaSurvivor 20:28 GMT le 07 février 2011    
KOG - Thanks for the warning. I just call my daughter-in-law to warn her and have her check her local weather station in Tampa.
Member Since: 20 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
63. Skyepony (Mod) 20:39 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




He had a blog about rainbows once..
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29958
64. Patrap 20:39 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Every Home should have at least 1 NOAA weather ALERT Radio.


It may save you and your Families Life .



Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112971
65. Skyepony (Mod) 20:42 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Region 1.2 is up to 0.

Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29958
66. Patrap 20:45 GMT le 07 février 2011    
We found this a tad interesting for a change of entry..


Do Indulge and stroll thru it if you will,..
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67. Grothar 21:20 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
We found this a tad interesting for a change of entry..


Do Indulge and stroll thru it if you will,..


How did I miss that one? I could have been on a roll for days with that material.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19672
68. gordydunnot 21:23 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Skyepony, did he explain where the pot of gold was.Thought I'd clear that up.
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69. 7080734 21:33 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Skyepony:
Region 1.2 is up to 0.


So, is the La Nina dieing down?
Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
70. caneswatch 21:35 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Nice lookin' storms are coming this way. It might be another stormy night.
Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479
71. CybrTeddy 21:40 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting 7080734:

So, is the La Nina dieing down?


Correct, should be neutral by hurricane season.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20633
72. 7080734 21:44 GMT le 07 février 2011    
What do you think 2011's Severe Weather Season will be like with la Nina dieing down?
Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
73. GeoffreyWPB 21:45 GMT le 07 février 2011    
WPTV Storm Team 5
West Palm Beach

Gusty winds continue across Florida ahead of a cold front that will swing through overnight. Wind gusts approaching 40mph, but are not expected to get any higher. Much cooler tomorrow.
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248
74. washingtonian115 22:07 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting 7080734:
What do you think 2011's Severe Weather Season will be like with la Nina dieing down?
I think we could see an active server weather season.Especially with this up coming pattern change.
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 11188
75. CybrTeddy 22:08 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting 7080734:
What do you think 2011's Severe Weather Season will be like with la Nina dieing down?


Similar to 2008's I would hazard to guess..
Higher than normal tornado season. Average amount (vs less than amount last season) of thunderstorms over the summer in Florida. And of course - a more active hurricane season, though probably less than 2010's, more like 15-17 named.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20633
76. GeoffreyWPB 22:28 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9248
77. BahaHurican 22:38 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


Funny you should mention that, did you see this?

DELRAY BEACH — With blue- and purple-colored, balloon-looking animals lining the beach all weekend, it's not hard to believe Delray Beach Ocean Rescue's James Scala when he says 197 people were stung by Portuguese man-of-war on Sunday alone.

Scala said 46 people were stung Friday, and another 84 on Saturday at Delray Beach.

Clint Tracy, a Boca Raton Ocean Rescue captain, said the man-of-war were first seen on the beach Thursday.

Lifeguards flew purple warning signs to notify swimmers.

He said many of the man-of-war were probably pushed to the shore by winds blowing east.

Geez, Grothar, that manowar looks like some eerie other-world creature come to take over the world! Look at those "antenna" and that freaky blue colour! Hard to believe anybody who got stung by one did so on land....
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
78. GeoffreyWPB 22:38 GMT le 07 février 2011    
79. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:39 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41329
80. Grothar 22:40 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez, Grothar, that manowar looks like some eerie other-world creature come to take over the world! Look at those "antenna" and that freaky blue colour! Hard to believe anybody who got stung by one did so on land....


That is why you should never touch them on the beach. There is a chemical that really does harm. We have had them on our beaches for years. They leave a welt that last for weeks.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19672
81. Jedkins01 22:41 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.




Because fair weather isn't exciting, what kind of real weather enthusiast gives a a crap about fair weather?


I'll take stormy weather any day over fair weather, unless what I'm doing absolutely requires fair weather. But most of the time I'm doing something outside, stormy weather just makes it more exciting :)
Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5420
82. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:43 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Skyepony:


He had a blog about rainbows once..


lol

sky stop that

Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41329
83. BahaHurican 22:44 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Afternoon all.

A fading la nina giving way to a neutral season is pretty bad for us, IIRC.... I seem to recall one study that suggests threats to US coast and Caribbean islands are greatest during neutral years.... even if the season doesn't get above 15 NS, we're more likely to see steering patterns that favor landfall as opposed to early recurvature over the ocean waters....

Will be very interesting to see how quickly la nina fades, and whether it stays faded...
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
84. Patrap 22:46 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Google is our friend.

The 360-degree Rainbow

Posted by: JeffMasters,

Most people don't realize it, but a rainbow is actually a full circle. You usually can't see the full circle, since half of the rainbow lies beneath the horizon, where it is not raining. After all, there is no weather underground. However, if one is in an airplane or overlooking a waterfall, the 360-degree rainbow can be seen. I know--I have seen them twice from research airplanes that were flying through rain showers. Check out the 360-degree rainbow image at the bottom. Note that there is a separate optical phenomena, called a glory (caused by diffraction), surrounding the shadow of the airplane.

Unfortunately, I only had a 23mm wide angle lens, and could not capture the entire 360-degree rainbow. To my knowledge, no one has captured a photograph of a full NATURAL 360-degree rainbow. You can easily photograph one using a sprinkler, as this photographer has done here.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112971
85. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:46 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


That is why you should never touch them on the beach. There is a chemical that really does harm. We have had them on our beaches for years. They leave a welt that last for weeks.

yep i remember when i was boy
we go out to the banks jigging for cod
the flesh of im would get torn up in the lines
if ya got the stuff on ya it would burn the skin right off yer hands
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41329
86. BahaHurican 22:47 GMT le 07 février 2011    
I dunno why, for me at least, a tropical wx blog somehow likely to be focused on tropical wx...

I post every day we have a great day... like today was excellent, with high near/over 80 F. OTOH, I'd rather read about the storms...
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
87. hydrus 22:56 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting BahaHurican:
I dunno why, for me at least, a tropical wx blog somehow likely to be focused on tropical wx...

I post every day we have a great day... like today was excellent, with high near/over 80 F. OTOH, I'd rather read about the storms...
Large and cool looking dome of high pressure near you...
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14692
88. Grothar 22:56 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep i remember when i was boy
we go out to the banks jigging for cod
the flesh of im would get torn up in the lines
if ya got the stuff on ya it would burn the skin right off yer hands


Nasty creatures, they are.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19672
90. Jedkins01 22:58 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Forecasters specifically noted that there wouldn't be any severe weather today, just "scattered showers". However, just as I called for, I suspected there would be chance of isolated severe weather, and sure enough 4 severe reports today. Nothing special, but still, they downplayed any threat of strong storms. They didn't even mention heavy rain ,just light to moderate showers... Right, the PWAT got to about 1.85 today. We had a burst of torrential rain earlier.
Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5420
91. BahaHurican 22:58 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting hydrus:
Large and cool looking dome of high pressure near you...
Looks like a change coming between tomorrow and Wednesday.... well back 2 the jacket and socks, I guess...
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
92. hydrus 23:00 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


Nasty creatures, they are.
The ocean is brimming with them. Especially way down, where the really scary ones live.....
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14692
93. BahaHurican 23:00 GMT le 07 février 2011    
I'm gone for a while... will check in later to see how far that front has progressed...
Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961
94. Jedkins01 23:02 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Similar to 2008's I would hazard to guess..
Higher than normal tornado season. Average amount (vs less than amount last season) of thunderstorms over the summer in Florida. And of course - a more active hurricane season, though probably less than 2010's, more like 15-17 named.


Last years lack of severe weather and lightning in Florida was the lowest Ive ever seen in 16 years living here. So this next year will have to be more active severe weather wise and thunderstorm wise in Florida.
Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5420
95. hydrus 23:03 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like a change coming between tomorrow and Wednesday.... well back 2 the jacket and socks, I guess...
Weather is just plain weird up here...Its suppose to get back to normal in ten days.....cough, hack
Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14692
97. Neapolitan 23:16 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Surfcropper:
Ever notice everything discussed on this blog is rooted in disaster?

Hurricanes, Floods, Ice storms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes, Global Warming, Solar Storms, Deaths, Destruction, Record Breaking Catastrophies...we're all going to die at the hands of random universal physics!!

Never once has Dr. Masters focused on a nice, breezy, sunny day somewhere. Its like severity is all we desire.

Nice, breezy, sunny days don't generally kill people, that's all. They don't destroy property. They don't initiate mass evacuations. They don't cause food prices to soar, or energy to run short, or infrastructures to crumble, or nations to go to war over dwindling resources. They don't cause political or societal upheaval. In short, the chaos and confusion brought about by both natural and man-made catastrophes have always shaped civilizations and species; is it really any wonder we're fascinated and horrified by them?
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11305
98. Levi32 23:21 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, should be neutral by hurricane season.


Though there is a pretty good chance it will remain near weak La Nina/neutral conditions through the summer and then restrengthen into a 2nd-year La Nina next winter.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25607
99. CybrTeddy 23:31 GMT le 07 février 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:


Last years lack of severe weather and lightning in Florida was the lowest Ive ever seen in 16 years living here. So this next year will have to be more active severe weather wise and thunderstorm wise in Florida.


Same here, it pretty much shut off by July too.
Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20633
100. Levi32 23:37 GMT le 07 février 2011    
The solar F10 Radio Flux was forecasted to be up to 100 by February of 2011, but it's still stuck down near 80.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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