Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Another amazingly snowy winter for the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:18 GMT le 11 février 2011

As northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas dig out from the two feet of snow dumped this winter's latest epic snowstorm, it's time to summarize how remarkable the snows of the past two winters have been. So far this winter, the Northeast U.S. has seen three Category 3 (major) or higher snow storms on the Northeast Snowfall Impact (NESIS) scale. This scale, which rates Northeast snowstorms by the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm, runs from Category 1 (Notable) to Category 5 (Crippling.) This puts the winter of 2010 - 2011 in a tie for first place with the winters of 2009 - 2010 and 1960 - 1961 for most major Northeast snowstorms. All three of these winters had an extreme configuration of surface pressures over the Arctic and North Atlantic referred to as a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). In this situation, the band of winds that circles the North Pole weakens, allowing cold air to spill southwards into the mid-latitudes.

In the past twelve months, we've had six major Category 3 or stronger storms on the NESIS scale, by far the most major snowstorms in a 12-month period in the historical record. Going back to 1956, only one 12-month period had as many as four major snowstorms--during 1960 - 1961. New York City has seen three of its top-ten snowstorms and the two snowiest months in its 142-year history during the past 12 months--February 2010 (36.9") and January 2011 (36.0"). Philadelphia has seen four of its top-ten snowstorm in history the past two winters. The Midwest has not been left out of the action this year, either--the Groundhog's Day blizzard nailed Chicago with its 3rd biggest snowstorm on record. According to the National Climatic Data Center, December 2010 saw the 7th greatest U.S. snow extent for the month in the 45-year record, and January 2011 the 5th most. December 2009 had the greatest snow extent for the month in the 45-year record, January 2010 the 6th most, and February 2010 the 3rd most. Clearly, the snows of the past two winters in the U.S. have been truly extraordinary.

Figure 1. The six major Category 3 Northeast snowstorms of the past twelve months. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A cold January in the U.S.
January 2011 was the coldest January in the contiguous U.S. since 1994, according to the National Climatic Data Center, and ranked as the 37th coldest January in the 117-year record. Despite the heavy snows in the Northeast U.S., January was the 9th driest January since 1895. This was largely due to the fact that the Desert Southwest was very dry, with New Mexico recording its driest January, and Arizona and Nevada their second driest.

A cold and record snowy winter (yet again!) in the U.S. does not prove or disprove the existence of climate change or global warming, as we must instead focus on global temperatures averaged over decades. Globally, January 2011 was the 11th warmest since 1880, but tied for the second coolest January of the past decade, according to NASA. NOAA has not yet released their stats for January. The cool-down in global temperatures since November 2010, which was the warmest November in the historical record, is largely due to the temporary cooling effect of the strong La Niña event occurring in the Eastern Pacific. This event has cooled a large portion of the surface waters in the Pacific, leading to a cooler global temperature.

Some posts of interest I've done on snow and climate change over the past year:

Hot Arctic-Cold Continents Pattern is back (December 2010)
The future of intense winter storms (March 2010)
Heavy snowfall in a warming world (February 2010)

Have a great weekend, everyone, and enjoy the coming warm-up, those of you in the eastern 2/3 of the country!

Jeff Masters

Snow and icicle sun (emilinetdd)

Cardinal City (dypepper)

Another exciting day for me, shooting the Cardinals in the Snow!

Categories: Winter Weather

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1. Neapolitan 15:22 GMT le 11 février 2011
Excellent post, Dr. Masters. Thank you. The warm-up will be appreciated very much by my friends and family spread across the Great Plains... Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

3. Floodman 15:33 GMT le 11 février 2011
Great post, doc! Thanks again for the work you do! Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

4. Orcasystems 15:38 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Floodman: Great post, doc! Thanks again for the work you do! Morning Flood... little cool your way the past few days :) Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

5. taco2me61 15:44 GMT le 11 février 2011
Great Post Dr Masters :o) I have to say I will welcome the warm weather.... Bring on spring :o) Taco :o) Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

6. Xandra 15:44 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Orcasystems: For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations. Member Since: 22 novembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

7. EnergyMoron 15:47 GMT le 11 février 2011
thx doc Member Since: 8 décembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3

8. Orcasystems 15:50 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Xandra: Not bad... but not one of my quotes... try again :) That's called cherry picking, to try and make your point. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

9. OCF 15:50 GMT le 11 février 2011
A long-time lurker here, posting for the first time. This comment should have been on yesterday's topic, but then the site does have a 24 hour waiting period - so read this as if it were a comment on that previous thread. (The three-letter user name means something on some other website; it won't make sense here.) I de-lurked because I was born and raised in Bartlesville, OK. (I live in Southern California now.) What is this ... -28 F in Bartlesville? -31 F in Nowata? Freaky! Insane! Incomprehensible! The coldest temperature I've ever been in (well, I was sane enough not to be outdoors in the pre-dawn) was -28 F - and that was in Madison, Wisconsin. It hit -28 twice in Madison within a week's time in January, 1979, wrapped around a big snowstorm (the Bilandic Blizzard, for its effect on Chicago mayoral politics). And that was Madison, where you might expect that sort of thing. I cannot fathom that kind of temperature in Bartlesville. The coldest I remember growing up there was -5 F, in late December, in the immediate aftermath of the second biggest snowstorm that happened when I was there - 9 inches. (The biggest snowstorm was 16 inches in mid-March, and on that latter occasion, it may never have even gotten down to freezing, during or after.) And that -5 F was itself pretty unusual. One thing that struck me about yesterday's temperatures was that they were out of line. Look at Tulsa, Wichita, Topeka, and try to predict from those what the temperature should have been in Bartlesville, and you could see -5 or -10, but not what they were which was 20 degrees cooler than that. A weird extra-cold pocket settled right near the Kansas-Oklahoma border, and in that pocket (not isolated by any significant natural barriers) temperatures were an extra 15 or 20 degrees colder. Of course, what I remember from that -28 in Madison was that there was some town in northwestern Wisconsin (Rice Lake?) that was its own weird extra-cold pocket then and hit -60 F, which was also hard to believe. I was trying do devise explanations involving the precise siting of the Bartlesville airport (and not doing a good job of convincing myself), but then it was actually colder in Nowata anyway. I know where Hogshooter Creek is (can't help with the history of the name) - it runs along the Washington/Nowata county line, so it's in between Bartlesville and Nowata. Oh, and just to throw in a tropical weather reference: we lost the top third of a tree in our yard during Hurricane Carla. That was 600 miles inland - Carla was some amazing storm. Member Since: 10 février 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 22

10. HaloReachFan 15:54 GMT le 11 février 2011
I went back to the last blog Tried to catch up but after seeing Neo post about proxies I had to laugh. He said "Gotcha" So when they call this next month the 6th warmest is that all the way back? Using those proxies? How many states are there? "Gotcha" Member Since: 15 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563

11. weatherman566 15:54 GMT le 11 février 2011
That map of the snow isn't very accurate. Where's the snow in the southeast for the December 2010 and January 9, 2011 storm? Member Since: 15 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

12. PalmBeachWeather 15:55 GMT le 11 février 2011
Many, many friends in Xenia Ohio(where I grew up) they are absolutely sick of it. Glad I left 27 years ago. Palm Beach county Florida now... I have forgotten how bad some of the winters suck, but my friends keep me informed Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084

13. NEwxguy 15:55 GMT le 11 février 2011
It really has been a memorable winter,not only for us up here in New England but the majority of the US has felt the wrath of winter at some point this winter.Predicting 50 degree weather end of next week up here,which will seem like a heatwave. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 816 Comments: 13132

14. atmoaggie 15:58 GMT le 11 février 2011
Ummm, shooting cardinals or just shooting cardinals? Nice update, Doc. Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

15. Floodman 16:01 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Orcasystems: Morning Flood... little cool your way the past few days :) Yes man and you should have been here for the whining...LOL You'd think it was a personal insult from God or something, the way people took on about it...you were here though (on this site I mean), and heard RitaEvac? Imagine all of that, only louder and tens of thousands more voices...LOL So how are things up your way? Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

16. atmoaggie 16:02 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting OCF: A long-time lurker here, posting for the first time. This comment should have been on yesterday's topic, but then the site does have a 24 hour waiting period - so read this as if it were a comment on that previous thread. (The three-letter user name means something on some other website; it won't make sense here.) I de-lurked because I was born and raised in Bartlesville, OK. (I live in Southern California now.) What is this ... -28 F in Bartlesville? -31 F in Nowata? Freaky! Insane! Incomprehensible! The coldest temperature I've ever been in (well, I was sane enough not to be outdoors in the pre-dawn) was -28 F - and that was in Madison, Wisconsin. It hit -28 twice in Madison within a week's time in January, 1979, wrapped around a big snowstorm (the Bilandic Blizzard, for its effect on Chicago mayoral politics). And that was Madison, where you might expect that sort of thing. I cannot fathom that kind of temperature in Bartlesville. Funny you should mention the upper midwest and 1979 as I just stumbled across something cool while researching for something else. Would we just consider it normal or freaky, absurd cold if all of the Great Lakes near-completely froze over? Happened (Assuming the obs are any good): Currently: Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

17. Xandra 16:03 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Orcasystems: Not bad... but not one of my quotes... try again :) That's called cherry picking, to try and make your point. Sorry Orca! It was a quote from Patrap and I accidentally quote your name instead ;) Patrap forgot to mark an important sense! Member Since: 22 novembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 758

18. PalmBeachWeather 16:06 GMT le 11 février 2011
Yes man and you should have been here for the whining...LOL Would you like a little whine with your post? Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084

19. Orcasystems 16:08 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Floodman: Yes man and you should have been here for the whining...LOL You'd think it was a personal insult from God or something, the way people took on about it...you were here though (on this site I mean), and heard RitaEvac? Imagine all of that, only louder and tens of thousands more voices...LOL So how are things up your way? Its been pretty good.. weather is normal.. we are in spring here now, and starting to plant bulbs and Golf. I "might" have to mow the lawn this weekend... and before anyone jumps on the GW bandwagon.. I have mowed the lawn up here over the Christmas/New years period many many times. Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

21. PalmBeachWeather 16:11 GMT le 11 février 2011
Mubarak has stepped down.Finally Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084

23. Neapolitan 16:19 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting HaloReachFan: I went back to the last blog Tried to catch up but after seeing Neo post about proxies I had to laugh. He said "Gotcha" So when they call this next month the 6th warmest is that all the way back? Using those proxies? How many states are there? "Gotcha" And there you are yet again asking me how many states there are. Can you please provide me a little background information? That is, is it that you're unsure of the number yourself? Have I written something that makes you believe I'm unsure of the number? Are you trying to make some clever point, but failing at it? Are you perhaps given to uttering strange non-sequiturs? Do you draw some weird correlation between the number of states in the Union and global climate? I'd really appreciate it if you'd explain your motivation. Failing that, please check with Google; you'll get your answer. Thanks! Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

24. PalmBeachWeather 16:22 GMT le 11 février 2011
51 states now after reading the blog..Latest is "State of confusion" Member Since: 3 octobre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084

26. Neapolitan 16:28 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Cochise111: Sorry to disappoint the AGW proponents, but AGW, or climate change, or climate disruption isn't responsible for the supposedly "freakish" weather events going on around the world. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704 422204576130300992126630.html Getting truthful climate science news from an editorial in a far-right business newspaper is like asking the manager of a steakhouse how he feels about vegetarianism. Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

28. Patrap 16:37 GMT le 11 février 2011
A Journey of a Thousand Miles, begins with but a single step. Congrats to the Egyptian People for taking it in a NON-violent manner. They are truly walking towards Democracy this day. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

29. hydrus 16:39 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Floodman: Yes man and you should have been here for the whining...LOL You'd think it was a personal insult from God or something, the way people took on about it...you were here though (on this site I mean), and heard RitaEvac? Imagine all of that, only louder and tens of thousands more voices...LOL So how are things up your way? A personal insult from God..lol Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

33. HaloReachFan 16:41 GMT le 11 février 2011
There goes MichaelSTL. "Guys the weather is doing a wooble right now" That is all this is. He copy's and paste's the same information all the time. With no avail. No proof that man is causing this. Time to go back to the drawing board. Member Since: 15 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563

34. HaloReachFan 16:42 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane: Ahhh...don't worry about him. Things are always a bit convoluted for those who refuse to take the Marxist sunglasses off. Wait. When did they get sunglasses? You better inform me on which brand they are. I don't want to get caught out on the street with my Foakley's on if they are. Member Since: 15 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563

36. HaloReachFan 16:45 GMT le 11 février 2011
This website is slowing me down from doing my homework. But wait I thought college drop outs don't have homework? Yet another lie from the side that lies. I wanted that to be clever it wasn't. Member Since: 15 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563

39. Chicklit 16:49 GMT le 11 février 2011
"Fear has been defeated; there is no turning back." quote of anonymous Egyptian... "We were all looking for Egypt and thank God we found her today." Activist Wael Ghonim Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

41. greentortuloni 16:50 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane: Ahhh...don't worry about him. Things are always a bit convoluted for those who refuse to take the Marxist sunglasses off. It's a zinger! It's a call people who disagree with you Marxist zinger! Only single points though, no fake aw shuks. Member Since: 5 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1189

42. Jedkins01 16:54 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Patrap: A Journey of a Thousand Miles, begins with but a single step. Congrats to the Egyptian People for taking it in a NON-violent manner. They are truly walking towards Democracy this day. LOL they aren't being violent right now, but there were gun battles just a few days back. Its good to see it has changed to a peaceful demonstration. Be careful, revolutions are dangerous. Hopefully no extremists will get in, because Egypt has a pretty serious military. A lot of them are trained in the U.S. and they carry similar equipment. Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

43. Jedkins01 17:00 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting cat5hurricane: Ahhh...don't worry about him. Things are always a bit convoluted for those who refuse to take the Marxist sunglasses off. Thank God those who wear Marxist sunglasses are less than 1% of the U.S. population. :) Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

44. HaloReachFan 17:04 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting Jedkins01: Thank God those who wear Marxist sunglasses are less than 1% of the U.S. population. :) But they all seem to be on this site. Wonder why? Member Since: 15 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563

45. JupiterKen 17:04 GMT le 11 février 2011
MichaelSTL... you post graph after graph yet make no point. Do you have one? Member Since: 3 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 295

46. RitaEvac 17:07 GMT le 11 février 2011
Ahhh, fresh blog Member Since: 14 juillet 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8912

47. overwash12 17:09 GMT le 11 février 2011
Why are records for coldest temperatures still being broken amidst AGW? Member Since: 24 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1049

48. stillwaiting 17:10 GMT le 11 février 2011
any chances of a snowstorm in the NE over the next 2 weeks?? Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970

49. Neapolitan 17:14 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting overwash12: Why are records for coldest temperatures still being broken amidst AGW? Because weather isn't the same as climate. If you'd like, I can guide you to some educational resources on the differences between the two; there's a lot of information you might find fascinating. Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

50. HaloReachFan 17:15 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting JupiterKen: MichaelSTL... you post graph after graph yet make no point. Do you have one? I've been asking that. For a long time now. Member Since: 15 septembre 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 563

51. hydrus 17:17 GMT le 11 février 2011
Quoting stillwaiting: any chances of a snowstorm in the NE over the next 2 weeks?? Link IT has a missing image..:( Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14314

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