Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Orcasystems:


bad man.. bad man...
Stop encouraging them

We are, all of us, evil men in the service of a vengeful God, Orca...

ThinkProgress has learned that a law firm representing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the big business trade association representing ExxonMobil, AIG, and other major international corporations, is working with set of “private security” companies and lobbying firms to undermine their political opponents, including ThinkProgress, with a surreptitious sabotage campaign.

Quoting Skyepony:
ThinkProgress has learned that a law firm representing the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the big business trade association representing ExxonMobil, AIG, and other major international corporations, is working with set of “private security” companies and lobbying firms to undermine their political opponents, including ThinkProgress, with a surreptitious sabotage campaign.

More evil men in the service of a vengeful god

Quoting shakaka:
Here's a tip: freshman physics and basic chemistry thermo classes barely scratch the surface. If this is as far as you people have gotten, be quiet. You don't really know what you're talking about even if by blind luck you happen to be correct every now and then.

I didn't know you had to have a degree in math or science to discuss the weather here. This blog used to be fun........it's like a big pissing contest now......sigh...

re:116
Movieclips is NOT a YouTube,,

A Embed YouTube or Link can in no way break the thread here.

If one has a problem with a Browser with a post,just use the HIDE feature and it will disappear.

Or "Das Poof" it.

Quoting swampdawg:


I didn't know you had to have a degree in math or science to discuss the weather here. This blog used to be fun........it's like a big pissing contest now......sigh...

You just have to know how to deal with puffed up little popinjays, hon

I just yell SQUAWK at 'em....

:)

LOL, Amy...

I get a degree every day.

Usually the "Third" degree though,,

A Quick Look At 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted: Feb 14, 2011 1:49 PM by Natalie Noah
Updated: Feb 14, 2011 2:01



It is a good time to start thinking about the coming 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. The season will officially start June 1st and end on November 30th. The 2010 estimates were correctly projected, a busy season, and forecasters are calling for an above-active one for 2011.

While El Nino conditions are unlikely this year, La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific are generally conducive toward an active hurricane season. Uncertainties whether La Niña conditions or neutral conditions are more likely for this hurricane season. Sea-surface temperatures in the far North Atlantic remain at record warm levels, which is an indication that we are in a active period during 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be above normal and wind shear is predicted to be favorable for storm formation. Models are calling for an increased chance of U.S. landfall in this year, especially for the western Gulf states.

Forecasters across the country are predicting an above average season. Seventeen named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. A normal season has nine to twelve named storms, of which five to seven reach hurricane strength and one to three become major hurricanes. For now from expert predictions, expect another active round of storms for this upcoming 2011 hurricane season.

National Hurricane Center (NHC) 2011 Tropical Cyclone Names



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

Some people get a degree to show how much they know, other get a degree and realize how little they know.

Quoting JFLORIDA:


No they are both not really factors in Global warming. That is not how it works. The first law is obeyed and more heat is transfered within the system.


Frankly I would think you would had at least took the time to understand something correctly before disparaging those studying it.


It also tells me that half this board cant accurately say why the earth is not a frozen ball right now or at least didn't become one permanently in its past.


After all the complaining. Thats just sad.



Ok now for the issues.


Common usage in the south "heat" is synonymous with temperature. "This heat is unbearable."

Now in thermodynamics heat is something else.

I am certainly looking forward to you correcting everyone on this matter. And I will point it out from here on out.

I like how you came out guns flying when you knew I wasn't coming back.

Here's what you guys love posting from Wiki on almost a daily basis:

"The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower atmosphere. As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only warming mechanism.[1][2]
This mechanism is fundamentally different from that of an actual greenhouse, which works by isolating warm air inside the structure so that heat is not lost by convection.
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824, first reliably experimented on by John Tyndall in 1858, and first reported quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[3]"

This is a simple concept, and one that I understand perfectly well. Greenhouse gases absorb radiation from the Earth and re-radiate it, thereby "trapping" a certain amount of solar radiation that allows the planet to be warmer than a standard blackbody heated only by direct solar radiation.

You said this earlier today:

Quoting JFLORIDA:
So when we have have cold down in Mexico and extreme warmth in the arctic we are losing ice volume that in the summer months would be reflecting energy.

So we can expect more energy then heat to be put into the system this summer as a result of the climate system that made it cold down in Mexico.

This is the statement I had a beef with. To which I responded:

Quoting Levi32:


This is a flawed statement. Heat is the process of energy being transfered between objects that are in thermal contact with each other due to a thermal gradient. Radiation is a method of transferring energy. If you take away more arctic sea ice then more heat is going to be added to the system through increased absorption of solar radiation.

You cannot have more energy added to the system than the amount of heat gained if the work done by the system is positive. That violates the First Law of Thermodynamics which states that the change in the amount of internal energy of a system is equal to the heat added to the system minus the work done by the system. The Earth's atmospheric-oceanic system is always doing more work as it warms up and gains energy. Thus, according to the equation of the 1st law, Q must always be greater than Delta-E.

Q is the net amount of heat absorbed by the system, which includes re-radiated heat from greenhouse gases. The first law must hold here, but your statement contradicted it. You have yet to explain yourself on this point. I don't see the need to personally attack me here, yet again. Can you not simply have a scientific discussion with me? I hope you realize that I wasn't even debating AGW with you that whole time. Just simple physics.

2011 Atlantic Hurricane names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Meteorology scares me a bit, I feel smart when my friends don't know what the North Atlantic Oscillation is, but than I realize I don't really know what it is either. I spose that's what college will be for

NOAA aint Wiki..last I checked.

I thought "Q" was that Alien on Star Trek the Next Generation as well.





Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.

It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.

Quoting TaylorSelseth:


Thanks, Levi!

Do you have any links for info on the PDO and how in affects the weather in the US?

You can learn some more about the PDO here, and from here you can view the average effects of the PDO on temperature and precipitation over North America.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
lol. yea.

No you said reflected IR was a part of it - and its not and something incoherent about the first law of thermodynamics.

You know I dont know everything I dont mind being wrong. Perhaps you should learn a little humility when criticizing people working at this a lot longer then you. And Anthony Watts.

I think you do.

"No you said reflected IR was a part of it"

I said greenhouse gases both absorb and reflect IR radiation. From what I have been taught, there is no such thing as a perfect blackbody.

You still haven't justified your statement that "we can expect more energy then heat to be put into the system."

Quoting swampdawg:


I didn't know you had to have a degree in math or science to discuss the weather here. This blog used to be fun........it's like a big pissing contest now......sigh...

that no one will ever win

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Also the first law applies to isolated systems. So either way you are incorrect as the earth, sun atmosphere is NOT.

I didn't understand that fragmented sentence.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
No they do not the absorb and emit. That is the greenhouse effect.

They absorb, re-emit, and reflect. The greenhouse effect is primarily from re-radiation. I don't understand what your issue is with this.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
In the natural sciences an isolated system, as contrasted with an open system, is a physical system that does not interact with its surroundings. It obeys a number of conservation laws: its total energy and mass stay constant. They cannot enter or exit, but can only move around inside. An example is in the study of spacetime, where it is assumed that asymptotically flat spacetimes exist.

Isolated system

See also: Thermodynamic system

Yeah that basically follows my Physics textbook definition:

A closed system is a system into or out of which thermal energy can be transferred but from which no constituents can escape and to which no additional constituents are added.

From the University of Wisconsin:

The Earth system as a whole is a closed system. The boundary of the Earth system is the outer edge of the atmosphere. Virtually no mass is exchanged between the Earth system and the rest of the universe (except for an occasional meteorite). However, energy in the form of solar radiation passes from the Sun, through the atmosphere to the surface. The Earth in turn emits radiation back out to space across the system boundary. Hence, energy passes across the Earth's system boundary, but not mass, making it a closed system.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Give me an example of a greenhouse gas reflecting.

It is my current understanding that every material that is not a perfect blackbody reflects some of the radiation that hits it, as well as letting some pass through it.

Perhaps somebody with a more advanced background in physics can confirm or deny that statement I just made.

Anyone who cant hold their Cussing tongue here is relegated to the recycle bin Immediately.

Reason and logic never open with a potty mouth.

So yer dismissed.


The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas about weather, the outdoors, and nearly everything. Some blogs, such as Dr. Masters' Blog, have special community standards that apply only to them. For the blogs at large, as well as special or featured blogs, our Terms of Service apply. Please remain within the bounds of the Terms of Service. This document will strive to provide pointers for operating within the Wunderground community.

Rules of the Road

1. Please do not carry on personal disputes in the blogs.
2. Threats, intimidation, especially that which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.
3. Foul language is not allowed.
4. Please avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather.
5. Do not circumvent administrative action by creating new users, etc.
6. No spam.

184. Levi32 11:04 PM GMT on February 14, 2011

You must really be bored... you have been tweaking their tails all day, they have even been trying to double team you.

Me tinks the author is a "they" as well here.

So anyone who agrees with published known data and peer-reviewed material accepted by the Scientific Community,,Globally, is a they?


Fascinating

Quoting JFLORIDA:


I dont even know if that would matter with gases in a atmosphere. Its not part of the "greenhouse effect" but might be some kind of feedback someone is working on if it exists.

Which is fine but the whole discussion is about that energy. So then energy is conserved. Did I say it was not?

Yup.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
So when we have have cold down in Mexico and extreme warmth in the arctic we are losing ice volume that in the summer months would be reflecting energy.

So we can expect more energy then heat to be put into the system this summer as a result of the climate system that made it cold down in Mexico.

Oldest to newest relating to the earlier subject matter, to one degree or another, from the old dusty paper bin and one recent related discussion paper. OK, they were the first few in that directory in that folder, LOL :)

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1960ApJ...132..473 G


http://langley.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/D ocuments_1980/Stephens_JAS_Cirrus_1980.pdf


http://modis-atmos.gsfc.nasa.gov/_docs/Stephens_a nd_Tsay_%281990%29.pdf


http://www.mdpi.org/sensors/papers/s8031832.pdf


http://www.atmos-meas-tech-discuss.net/4/33/2011/ amtd-4-33-2011.pdf

Quoting Levi32:


Yup.

+1

Can we define and quantify,"yup" ?

I dont think its happening personally.

Maybe "they" do.



wattsupwithdat

Quoting Levi32:


Yup.

Well done grasshopper :)

Quoting RecordSeason:



"They"

No, its THEM !! ~~ LOL

Draw your own inference :)