La Niña weaker; may be gone by summer
A significant shift is occurring in the Equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, where the tell-tale signs of the end to the current La Niña event are beginning to show up. A borderline moderate/strong La Niña event has been underway since last summer, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) about 1.5°C below average over a wide stretch of the Equatorial Pacific. These cool SSTs have altered the course of the jet stream and have had major impacts on the global atmosphere. The La Niña has been partially responsible for some of the extreme flooding events in recent months, such as the floods in Australia, Sri Lanka, and Colombia. La Niña is also largely to blame for the expanding drought over the southern states of the U.S. But in the last few weeks, SSTs in the Equatorial Pacific have undergone a modest warm-up, and these temperatures are now about 1.2°C below average. A region of above-average warmth has appeared immediately adjacent to the coast of South America--often a harbinger of the end to a La Niña event. An animation of SSTs since late November shows this developing warm tongue nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May. The weakness displayed by the current La Niña event has prompted NOAA's Climate Predictions Center to give a 50% chance that La Niña will be gone by June. If La Niña does rapidly wane, this should help reduce the chances for a continuation of the period of high-impact floods and droughts that have the affected the world in recent months.
Figure 1. A comparison of the the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between this week and two months ago shows that a tongue of warmer-than-average waters has appeared off the coast of South America, possibly signaling the beginning of the end of the current La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
What does this mean for hurricane season?
As many of you know, the phase of the El Niño/La Niña is critical for determining how active the Atlantic hurricane season is. La Niña or neutral conditions promote very active Atlantic hurricane seasons, while El Niños sharply reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear. Will the probable demise of La Niña this spring allow an El Niño to take its place by this fall? Well, don't get your hopes up. Since 1950, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center records that there have been sixteen La Niña events during February (26% of all years.) In half of those years, La Niña was still active during the August - September - October peak of Atlantic hurricane season, six (38%) transitioned to neutral conditions, and only two (12%) made it all the way to El Niño. So historically, the odds do not favor a transition to El Niño by hurricane season. The latest set of computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña (Figure 2) also reflect this. Only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season.
Figure 2. Predictions made in January 2011 of the evolution of El Niño/La Niña over the coming year shows that only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season, while four predict La Niña and ten predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University IRI.
I'll have a new post by Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I figured pat, my dad's been to so many countries for medical aid i can't even count haha
you say that until the first weapon or bomb is found because of those, then what?
That's not what it said. It said it was upgrading the ocean model to using MOM4, which is a dedicated higher res ocean modeling system.
Every "blessed" climate model I'm aware of includes at least a rudimentary ocean model, even if it just a "swamp" ocean model. Even low res climate models such as GISS's ModelE contain multiple different ocean models, and it's had that capability for quite some time.
Saudis and Egyptians, all i'm saying is that everyone will be against it until they prevent a bomb or weapon on board and it'll be seen as a lifesaver.
BoM Subsurface Pacific Ocean Equatorial Average Temperature and Anomolies at 150 Meters
Hmm, 2 billion a yr, 30 yrs in power, 50 billion dollar net worth. Yep, Mubarak was keeping it all.
LOL
Pat what would stop one from after going through the metal detectors getting a knife from one of the restaurant? its insane how easy it truly could be... tis like the detectors are for peace of mind.
you cant really be saying that you are okay with risking thousands of innocent lives as long as due process is followed are you?
Tan comes to mind.
House Fiscal 11 Budget Proposal Could Devastate the National Weather Service's Life-Saving Warnings and Forecasts
WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.
"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the wellbeing of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."
Did you actually read it? it wasn't a mere "request for a government audit"; it's a very long indictment flush with conspiracy theories and baseless allegations of malfeasance, corruption, and general scientific incompetence. Or, as I said earlier, a witch hunt--exactly the kind of thing people like Nova must resort to, as the science just isn't going their way. And that's understandable, if not forgivable...
And as an aside to that bit of drama: the planet continues to warm.
P.S. -- Can you please define "flip out" for me?
They are, and for the companies who make the detectors/scanners.
They also just voted to cut spending on JSF-35 engines, they are cutting everywhere, true to their running stance
Pretty amazing...
It's called security theater, and it's been practiced by every government since antiquity in order to create a false sense of security while simultaneously justifying continued or expanded military spending by exaggerating or creating some external threat. Of course, the expenditures of security theater end up draining treasuries dry, along with expansive military spending.
In other words, what the US is going through is something that has happened many times before, to many historical powerful nations from the Roman Empire to the British Empire to the Soviet Union.
As Mark Twain said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.".
Worker Dies at Cubicle, Found a Day Later
Feb 16, 2011 – 1:31 PM
lol.... how could you not notice...
NASAexplorer | October 13, 2009
"Climate Change and The Global Ocean" is the first episode in the six-part series "Tides of Change", exploring amazing NASA ocean science to celebrate Earth Science Week 2009.
"will be upgraded from the limited area GFDL MOM3 to the global
MOM4"
Not sure how that could be anything but a non-global ocean model to global ocean model upgrade.
"Limited area" doesn't at least imply that it isn't global? How could a global model be called "limited area"...
NOUS42 KWNO 161958
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1955Z WED FEB 16 2011
THE 18Z NAM IS UNDERWAY AND RUNNING ON TIME..
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
And looks good for the next cycles: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/i ndex.html#TARGET
Yes. It's something done to placate the gullible masses, and to allow them to feel safe. The fact of the matter is, there are literally thousands of ways a determined, creative, and half-smart person could cause massive casualties, and there is absolutely no way to stop them. The TSA is a huge and bloated agency whose only mission is to prevent terrorists from attacking in ways they already have (and likely won't try again); there's very little thought given to the myriad other ways to make a violent political statement, and hence very little in the way of efforts to prevent any such actions. No, it's much easier to make 87-year-old ladies take off their shoes before boarding and to run infants through a particle detector; so long as they do that, everyone is happy and snug as a bug in a rug.
Or so they're led to believe.
According to this, there was a 59 degree difference in min/max temp on the 10th, too (high 29, low minus 27).
Heck of a cold front.
But it's only weather...
NASA | Arctic Sea Ice 101
NASAexplorer | October 06, 2009
NASA climate scientist Tom Wagner provides a look at the state of Arctic sea ice in 2009 and discusses NASA's role in monitoring the cryosphere.
Well me tinks those 19 Saudis and Egyptians with Box Cutters and a Plan outta Logan got us well,into a bad situ with our collective pants around our ankles in Sept 2001.
3000 Lives to be specific.
Someone correct me if I am wrong however
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