La Niña weaker; may be gone by summer
A significant shift is occurring in the Equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America, where the tell-tale signs of the end to the current La Niña event are beginning to show up. A borderline moderate/strong La Niña event has been underway since last summer, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) about 1.5°C below average over a wide stretch of the Equatorial Pacific. These cool SSTs have altered the course of the jet stream and have had major impacts on the global atmosphere. The La Niña has been partially responsible for some of the extreme flooding events in recent months, such as the floods in Australia, Sri Lanka, and Colombia. La Niña is also largely to blame for the expanding drought over the southern states of the U.S. But in the last few weeks, SSTs in the Equatorial Pacific have undergone a modest warm-up, and these temperatures are now about 1.2°C below average. A region of above-average warmth has appeared immediately adjacent to the coast of South America--often a harbinger of the end to a La Niña event. An animation of SSTs since late November shows this developing warm tongue nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May. The weakness displayed by the current La Niña event has prompted NOAA's Climate Predictions Center to give a 50% chance that La Niña will be gone by June. If La Niña does rapidly wane, this should help reduce the chances for a continuation of the period of high-impact floods and droughts that have the affected the world in recent months.
Figure 1. A comparison of the the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between this week and two months ago shows that a tongue of warmer-than-average waters has appeared off the coast of South America, possibly signaling the beginning of the end of the current La Niña event. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
What does this mean for hurricane season?
As many of you know, the phase of the El Niño/La Niña is critical for determining how active the Atlantic hurricane season is. La Niña or neutral conditions promote very active Atlantic hurricane seasons, while El Niños sharply reduce Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear. Will the probable demise of La Niña this spring allow an El Niño to take its place by this fall? Well, don't get your hopes up. Since 1950, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center records that there have been sixteen La Niña events during February (26% of all years.) In half of those years, La Niña was still active during the August - September - October peak of Atlantic hurricane season, six (38%) transitioned to neutral conditions, and only two (12%) made it all the way to El Niño. So historically, the odds do not favor a transition to El Niño by hurricane season. The latest set of computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña (Figure 2) also reflect this. Only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season.
Figure 2. Predictions made in January 2011 of the evolution of El Niño/La Niña over the coming year shows that only two of the sixteen models predict El Niño conditions by hurricane season, while four predict La Niña and ten predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University IRI.
I'll have a new post by Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2011 Feb 16 2205 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been moderate with occasional
M-class and frequent C-class events throughout the period. Region
1158 (S21W39) has produced two M-class flares; the largest an M1/1F
at 16/1425Z with associated Type II radio sweep and a 330 sfu
Tenflare. Growth in Region 1158 leveled off at 620 millionths but
maintained its E-type configuration and beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. Region 1161 (N13E25) produced an M1 x-ray event at
16/0139Z. LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME at 16/0248Z.
Region 1161 has shown continual growth. The group currently has an
area of 330 millionths and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next
three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more
M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or
greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity
from Region 1161.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind velocities
throughout the period gradually decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An
increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor
storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18
February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected
arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active
as the disturbance subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 114
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 085
Uh....No more Wolfman Jack....Uh.....No more Kasey Kasem......................Dammit Jim
The Sumerian Return Rep will also be in attendance.
The Wormhole Opens October 1 2012 2200 UTC
BP will be handling the Lottery and arrangements.
Book early and often,
Good Luck.
Live Long and Prosper
JT is the 12th Iman
I saw it on the intranets,,its true
Slide 8 of this presentation has the system specs. System has 4992 processors.
Oh Jesus will you and RecordSeason ****ing stop that already! You guys remind me of the trolls that we had in December/January.
Just put them on ignore.. then you wouldn't even know they were doing it.. unless someone quotes them.
Me too. It's terrible what some parents do to their children. Not only that, DCF knew about this a while ago and they didn't do squat. The blame should be put on them as well.
I already did that with RS yesterday, and I did it on another window with JT before I made the post. It's sickening to see the little comments they make at the end of their posts.
[Bye Aussie! :o)]
Aww. I thought it would make up for the Olympics last year...
not a science site."
Author Unkown
If they were using 64 cores at the new global resolution, every run would take more than 6 hours.
See: ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/nova/tsunami/Pa sti_NCEP_CCS%20.ppt
They run GFS on either Cirrus or Stratus, the Power6 type.That other stuff takes so long, partly, because much of it isn't parallel and cannot be run on a cluster effectively.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER BINGIZA (05-20102011)
4:00 AM Reunion February 17 2011
=====================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Bingiza (993 hPa) located at 20.7S 43.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5//12 HRS
Near Gale Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern sector
Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 21.2S 43.7E - 35 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 22.0S 44.1E - 20 knots (Depression sur Terre)
48 HRS: 25.7S 45.3E - 30 knots (Depression subtropicale)
72 HRS: 26.9S 44.1E - 35 knots (Depression subtropicale)
Additional Information
======================
System has moved south southwestward at about 10 knots during the latest 6 hours. Convection remains fluctuate above the center. According TRMM microwave picture at 19:12 PM UTC low level circulation has rapidly re-organized within the last hours.
Last numerical weather prediction outcome at 12 hrs (CEP, ARPEGE, ALADIN) forecast a slowdown of the system for the next 24 hours. System is located between two dual steering flow of the subtropical ridge. The present forecast still estimate a landfall today between Belo and Morombe. Despite the good actual environmental conditions, the system has not enough time to deepen significantly before the second landfall. Maximum average wind speed could reach 35 knots at the time of landfall. Associated precipitation could be locally very heavy on the southwest of Madagascar until Friday evening.
Beyond 24 hours, according to the weakening of the subtropical anticyclone, overland depression should dip down south southeastward, come back over water south of Madagascar on Friday or Saturday, track temporarily southwestward of the subtropical ridge and dip down again south southeastward towards a mid latitude trough with a subtropical and then and extratropical structure.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issed at 6:30 AM UTC..
I was more curious about how many cores they use to run the models though (it didn't say in the presentation). I could always go digging or shoot them an email to find out.
It's unlikely they would use all those cores on a single run, as parallel performance drops significantly if you break the domain into chunks that are too small to effectively utilize the resources.
Not funny... bad man.. stop it, and don't do it again.
Its not unknown Pat.
I said it in response to another member.
LOL...I don't care who you are, THAT was funny
Bangladesh~ A tornado coupled with hailstorm lashed several upazilas in the district, leaving about 100 people injured and 70 houses damaged. Wheat and maze in a vast tract of land were also ruined in Sadar, Baliadangi and Haripur upazilas during calamities on Wednesday afternoon. Around six-inch high hails covered almost 5,000 hectares of the wheat and maze lands in Baliadanga, upazila chairman Probir Kumar Roy and Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) Moniruzzaman said after visiting the affected areas. As many as 70 farmers, who were working in the fields, were injured, they said. Haripur UNO Harun-or-Rashid said wheat in over 70 percent of the lands in the upazila was levelled in the seasonal storm that also injured some 30 farmers. About 70 houses were damaged in Dhantola and Paria unions. District crop production expert Abdul Majid said the extend of damage was under assessment.
House Fiscal 11 Budget Proposal Could Devastate the National Weather Service's Life-Saving Warnings and Forecasts
WASHINGTON, Feb. 15, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As hurricane and tornado seasons approach, funding for the NWS will be nearly 30 percent less than the first half of 2011, if the Continuing Resolution proposed by the House majority is enacted. Congress's move will necessitate work furloughs and force rolling closures of Weather Warning Offices across the country. The effects will be felt in every aspect of daily life, including emergency management, television weather, and information used by our nation's citizens for transportation, commerce and agriculture.
The National Hurricane Center, the Storm Prediction Center, the Aviation Weather Center, the Tsunami Warning Centers, River Forecast Centers and local Weather Forecast Offices located in communities across the nation are all victims of Congress's budget cut.
"When the budget blade drops on the NWS, it will be felt around the country," said NWSEO President Dan Sobien. "In the next hurricane, flood, tornado or wildfire, lives will be lost and people will ask what went wrong. Congress's cuts and the devastation to the well being of our nation's citizens are dangerously wrong."
Ok, I am lost again... last year the young ones on here had to explain "word" to me... what the heck is "sign"?
Disclaimer: Any disparaging remarks about Canada or Canadians are tongue-in-cheek and meant solely for entertainment purposes. Please note that no Canadians were injured in the writing of this post, though some have been lightly bruised.
I believe that may be a JFLORIDA'ized version of *sigh*
ROFLMAO.. I still like that one.. I stole it for the blog... but changed the names to protect the innocent.
Even us old guys get a good one every now and again
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