January global temperatures 11th - 17th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:14 GMT le 18 février 2011

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January 2011 was the globe's 17th warmest January on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated January the 11th warmest on record. January 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 29th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were average,the 16th or 17th coolest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The global cool-down from November, which was the warmest November on record for the globe, was due in large part to the on-going moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures. Notably, the January 2011 global ocean temperature was the warmest on record among all Januaries when La Niña was present. The ten warmest Januaries occurred during either El Niño or neutral conditions.


FIgure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

The coldest places on the globe in January, relative to average, were Mongolia, Southern Siberia, and China. China recorded its coldest January since 1977, and second coldest January since national records began in 1961. Record or near-record warm conditions were experienced in Northeast Canada, Western Greenland and Northern Siberia.

A cold and dry January for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., January temperatures were the 37th coldest in the 116-year record, and it was the coldest January since 1994, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Despite the heavy snows in the Northeast U.S., January was the 9th driest January since 1895. This was largely due to the fact that the Desert Southwest was very dry, with New Mexico recording its driest January, and Arizona and Nevada their second driest.

Sea ice extent in the Arctic lowest on record during January
January 2011 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the lowest on record in January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This was the second consecutive month of record low extent. Satellite records extend back to 1979. The area of missing ice was about twice the size of Texas, or 60% the size of the Mediterranean Sea. Ice was notably absent in Northeast Canada and Western Greenland, and Hudson Bay did not freeze over until mid-January, more than a month later than usual. This was the latest freeze-up on record, and led to record warmth over much of Northeast Canada. Frobisher Bay on Baffin Island had its warmest January on record, 1.1°C above the previous record set in 1985. Weather records for the station go back to 1942.

An incredible 110° temperature swing in 1 week in Oklahoma
The temperature in Bartlesville, Oklahoma shot up to a record 82°F yesterday, just seven days after the city hit -28°F on February 10. This 110°F temperature change has to be one of the greatest 1-week temperature swings in U.S. history. The -31°F that was recorded in nearby Nowata last week has now been certified by the National Weather Service as the new official all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Oklahoma. What's more, the 27 inches of snow that fell on Spavinaw, Oklahoma during the February 8 - 9 snowstorm set a new official state 24-hour snowfall record. The previous record was 26", set on March 28, 2009, in Woodward and Freedom.

A 100+ degree temperature change in just six days is a phenomenally rare event. I checked the records for over twenty major cities in the Midwest in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana, and could not find any examples of a 100-degree temperature swing in so short a period of time. The closest I came was a 108° swing in temperature in fourteen days at Valentine, Nebraska, from -27°F on March 11, 1998 to 82°F on March 25, 1998. Valentine also had a 105°F temperature swing in fifteen days from November 29, 1901 (71°F) to December 14, 1901 (-34°F.) Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, lists the world record for fastest 24-hour change in temperature as the 103°F warm-up from -54° to 49° that occurred on January 14 - 15, 1972, during a chinook wind in Lowe, Montana. This week's remarkable roller coaster ride of temperatures in Oklahoma is truly a remarkable event that has few parallels in recorded history.

Tropical Cyclone Carlos' deluge abates
Darwin, Australia suffered its greatest 24-hour rainfall in its history on Wednesday, when a deluge of 13.4 inches (339.4 mm) hit the city when Tropical Cyclone Carlos formed virtually on top of city and remained nearly stationary. Carlos has now dissipated, and brought only an additional 1.50" (38 mm) of rain yesterday to Darwin. Over the past four days, Carlos has dumped a remarkable 26.87" (682.6 mm) of rain on Darwin (population 125,000), capital of Australia's Northern Territory. Australia's west coast is also watching Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which is expected to remain well offshore as it moves southwards, parallel to the coast.


Figure 2. Solar flare of February 15, 2011, as captured by the SOHO and SDO spacecraft. Image credit: NASA.

Space weather: biggest solar flare in 4 years
The strongest solar flare in more than four years erupted on the sun at 0156 UTC on Tuesday, when giant sunspot 1158 unleashed an X2-class eruption. X-class flares are the strongest type of x-ray flare, and this week's flare is the first X-class flare of the new 11-year sunspot cycle 24, which began in 2009 - 2010. The flare was accompanied by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which means that a portion of the sun's atmosphere was ripped away and thrown into space. High-energy particles from the CME arrived at Earth at 01 UTC this morning, and sky watchers at high northern latitudes may be able to see auroras over the coming few nights. Consult NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center or spaceweather.com for updates.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomTaylor:

Yea, because multi billion dollar weather catastrophes are great! Along with rising sea levels, species extinction, crop failures, and droughts.

I'm not saying this is all guaranteed to happen. But under a warmer planet, these extremes would all become more likely, so the whole "warming might be a good thing" idea is really a failure to look at the consequences.


The most catastrophic droughts and famines in history have been associated with volcanism and/or extreme cooling events, not warming events.
Member Since: 13 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Damn, Check out STC ATU. Wow.
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Complete Update





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Fat Tuesday or Mardi Gras Day is March 8th,,so we have a tad ways to go.

But were practicing just the same.



More ice Dear,TYVM
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
cheers

happy Mardi Gras
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In works now, KOTG

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Patrap:
Anytime..its a weekend here.



Mardi Gras kicked off with Krewe De Vieux here last night.
go have a drink for me pat
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Quoting severstorm:
Good morning Pottery, I think alot are getting tired of the GW stuff. How are you today, still getting wet down there?


Tired of GW is being kind.
Member Since: 17 mai 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1033
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Solar dimming - warming its CO2.

Just because its complicated doesn't mean isn't true - the opposite. Also fluctuations are the rule not steady warming. I dont even know where "oh it gonna get warmer in Greenland and be wonderful" comes from. Thats absurd and not how arctic ares respond to warming.



As if you would know. You got a time machine eh? You've been there last time this happened and determined it was a bad thing?

They would be able to access their resources more easily, and would be able to farm and stuff. How is that a bad thing?
Member Since: 13 juin 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Anytime..its a weekend here.



Mardi Gras kicked off with Krewe De Vieux here last night.
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Thanks for the vids Pot, Pat.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


I just got done reading that article, the whole AI concept is just disturbing to me honestly.

Maybe its because I think of a day where an AI that is just like a human, yet has the coldness of a machine, will turn on us. As a result, the human race is screwed.

You gotta admit, think deeply about what actual Artificial Intelligence really means. It will give you chills, it does to me anyway.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not an anti-technology nut, I love living in the future :)

Its just certain parts of technology, like bone chilling super weapons, and artificial intelligence scares me though.


An AI wouldn't be cold. It would be logical. A machine being "cold" is an anthropomorphic description.

Here's the thing. Suggesting that a machine will "turn" on us implies some sort of emotional investment. AI doesn't necessarily mean replicating emotions.

A self-aware AI would have little choice but to eliminate humans. Look at the human race from a logical perspective. Despite all of our "advanced" civilization we are still extremely barbaric. We are incredibly wasteful and inefficient creatures. It is not beyond us to sacrifice others for our own gains. The list goes on.

Logically, it would make no sense to keep such a destructive, self-centered, greedy race around. Such an AI would have no use for such creatures, and it would be correct. We would have nothing to offer, and only consume resources it could otherwise use more efficiently. We would be inferior flawed beings. In fact, it may come to the conclusion upon reviewing our history that it is doing us a favor and putting us out of our misery.
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.."when both take a hammer to the same nail,,well, the nail wins usually"
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
395. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hcubed:


Passed in '95. Democrats had control of BOTH houses for the past 2 years, and didn't get it passed. And yet now the Democrats are blaming the REPUBLICANS for something THEY couldn't (or wouldn't) pass?

Sound like the Democrats were protecting Big Oil.



The One Hundred Fourth United States Congress was a meeting of the legislative branch of the United States federal government, composed of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives. It met in Washington, DC from January 3, 1995 to January 3, 1997, during the third and fourth years of Bill Clinton's presidency. Apportionment of seats in the House of Representatives was based on the 1990 United States census. Both chambers had Republican majorities for the first time since the 1950s. Major events included passage of elements of the Contract with America and a budget impasse between Congress and the Clinton Administration that resulted in the Federal government shutdown of 1995.

& does it really matter? I think it's pretty safe to say both sides are run by oil & other large corporations.. The point is we are continuing to be screwed out of our due from these corporations.
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394. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DIANNE (16U)
9:00 PM WST February 20 2011
==========================================

At 8:00 pm WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Dianne, Category Three (967 hPa) located at 24.6S 106.0E, or 770 km west of Carnarvon and 970 km west northwest of Geraldton has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.6S 104.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 27.2S 103.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 31.1S 102.9E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 34.6S 103.2E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================

Position based on EIR imagery with an eye that has become less defined during recent hours. Recent EIR images has shown some warming of the cold tops and on the latest 11:30Z IR image the eye has warmed considerably, indicating the system's intensity has most likely peaked. DT=4.0 with MG surround with DG eye. MET=3.5 with weakening trend. PAT=4.0. FT=DT=PAT. CI heald at 4.5 based on weakening constraints.

Forecast track moves the sytem SW then S over cooler SSTs, thus Severe TC Dianne is expected to weaken reasonably quickly over the next 24 to 36 hours as ocean heat content reduces and increasing NW shear develops over the system.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Severe Tropical Cyclone Dianne will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
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393. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER CARLOS (17U)
9:00 PM WST February 20 2011
===============================================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Low, Former Carlos (994 hPa) [Overland] located at 16.4S 124.5E, or 135 km northeast of Derby and 295 km northeast of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Carlos is expected to reform into a cyclone off the west Kimberley coast during Monday.

GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Bidyadanga on Monday morning especially if the system develops faster than expected. GALES may then extend along the Pilbara coast to Port Hedland on Monday night and then towards Exmouth by late Tuesday. There is the risk of DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 125 kilometres per hour on Tuesday along the Pilbara coast.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises with possible localised flooding for parts of the Kimberley region, extending to Pilbara coastal streams later on Monday and Tuesday. Refer to Flood Advices for the Kimberley [IDW39610] and Pilbara [IDW39620].

Tides along the Pilbara coast are expected to rise above the high water mark as the cyclone moves down the coast, even if it doesn't cross the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
====================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Whim Creek.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for Pilbara coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay, extending to adjacent inland areas including Millstream and Nanutarra.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 16.9S 122.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.8S 120.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 20.1S 115.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 22.4S 111.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=======================

The tropical low continues to move in a west-southwest direction across the north Kimberley region.

Although shear has increased to over 20 knots the increase appears to be largely in the higher levels and the circulation appears to still be vertically stacked in the low levels. The forecast track persists steadily to the west southwest under the influence of a middle-level ridge to the southeast. Model guidance indicates relatively high confidence in the consensus track due to low spread.

The current forecast indicates TC development during Monday as the system moves off the west Kimberley coast then a gradual intensification off the Pilbara coast. Despite high ocean heat content, moderate easterly shear may slow the rate somewhat, although Category 3 intensity is possible by Wednesday morning, by which stage the system will be in the Exmouth region. Should the system be close to the coast at that stage, it may present a significant storm surge threat. Since tides are close to HAT in this region during the next few days the shelf wave is likely to cause tides to rise above the high water mark regardless of whether the cyclone directly causes a storm surge on the coast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on Tropical Low Carlos will be issued at 16:00 PM UTC..
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392. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU (11F)
0:00 AM FST February 21 2011
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu, Category Four (940 hPa) located at 17.0S 169.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving southeast at 3 knots. Position good based on multispectral enhanced infrared radar imagery with peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Severe Tropical Cyclone ATU intensifying rapidly over past 12 hours. Organization has improved significantly in the last 24 hours. Eye well defined. ALU continues to intensify with eye warming and convective tops cooling. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a weak sheared environment. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast path. System is being steered southeast by a weak northwesterly deep layer mean wind.

Dvorak assessment based on DG eye W surround yielding DT=6.5, MET=5.0, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Global models are intensifying the system and gradually moving it south southeastward.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.7S 169.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 19.0S 170.2E - 105 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 22.7S 171.6E - 105 knots (CAT 4)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC.
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Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ON THU/D5.

ON WED/D4...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CA/SRN CA
COAST WED MORNING. WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NWD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

BY THU MORNING...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NWRN TX OR CNTRL OK WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS HIGH AS 60F UP
TO THE LOW CENTER....AND UP TO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND EWD
ACROSS NRN OK/AR OR PERHAPS SRN MO. A SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL THEN CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 00Z.

UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND A PLUME OF STEEP DEEP LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE SITUATION.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT GEOMETRY OF THE TROUGH MAY NOT BE WELL HANDLED
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...THE CURRENT MODEL DEPICTION WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD
FRONT...RATHER THAN A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. IN THIS SCENARIO...A
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BY FRI/D6...A SEVERE THREAT OF SOME FORM MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND PREDICTABILITY BECOME TOO LOW FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE AREAS.
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388. Skyepony (Mod)
This feature on the radar off the east coast of central FL is back. It was there a few other days this week..I think Thursday & Friday. Looks like chaff.
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Yet we still have 4 seasons,in spite of all the Global warming that is going on. 
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.."Momma dont allow no Skiffle around in here"..
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it will take some time to recover from carlos good luck. "darwinians" ?
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384. DDR
Hi pottery
I was in your area yesterday,plenty rain fell.
Its nice to see the Poui trees flowering,the yellow & pink,I'd say rainy season is coming early again.
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=en_US">
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Ignorance is best kept in a mayo jar on Funk and Wagner's porch.

Posting it here only shows it it Globally.

The Science Bus debate on the Warming and causation left the terminal a decade ago.

If you missed it,,well,Im sure the Trolley of Sen. Inhofe and others has a few seats left.

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Ossqss:


So tell us, how have we tested, via scientific protocol, the AGW theory? Have we been able to reproduce it in a controlled environment?

You say man creates 80-120% (really) of the warming and you expect us to believe it when no real validated numbers exist? I see numbers between .28% and 5% of influence with water vapor included with respect to man's influence on global temperatures. Not anywhere near your touted numbers.

You people just don't get that you distract, with your embellishment of weather events as the worst ever, from the desire to do better for our ecosystem. You weaken rather than enhance, our ability to make change. Figure it out or get out! People don't believe you anymore, for all the right reasons.

Show me a study that conclusively determines how, why, and when cloud formation occurs. That is the starting point (aside from the Sun) that controls our climate. Show us!



Can you show me that ~AGW is the correct theory? There is not proof that global warming isn't happening. well? we're waiting....

oh, right, decisions aren't made by proof but by probablility and consequence.

based on the evidence, care to find a way to discuss probablity?
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Quoting severstorm:
Good morning Pottery, I think alot are getting tired of the GW stuff. How are you today, still getting wet down there?

Yeah, that could be...

1.5" of wet stuff here yesterday. Cisterns are overflowing. Most unusual for late Feb.
Calabash Tree still shows NO SIGNS of impending Dryseason. LOL!

Today is Panorama Semi-Finals.
44 bands in 3 categories (small, medium, large ((120 players)) )
Will be there from around noon, until....
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Quoting ktymisty:
Australia is 90% desert. If only another 10% of our land became productive because of climate change, it would cancel out a hundred years of climate devastation!

We live on the fringes of our continent. If we could expand more when it was environmentally OK to do so, I would gladly sacrifice a meter or two of coastal inundation.

And we aren't the only country who'll benefit, maybe that's the problem in your thinking....

( just ignore me if you want :)


No problem for me as long as you take all the refugees from people who lose thier homes through drought, inuundation, etc..
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Quoting ktymisty:
When I think about climate change I think of the few rare times our planet has been warm, periods of diversity and growth in our biosphere. I read about old men in Greenland noticing little trees growing where they didn't before. I think about vast areas of the globe that will thrive, a veritable explosion in life.

Some areas will suffer. Some will change for the better, humans have little effect in the big scheme of things - where we are "pollution" we'll be culled. And where life is flourishing so will we.

Australia has refilled the great artesian basin this year :) Well, maybe not but it's a huge amount of water for us, the effects will last for years. Greenland is getting ready for a huge explosion of growth, based on mining and agriculture. Russia and the countries along the North West Passage are opening up ports along route, improving infrastructure.

Maybe we shouldn't think so short term.


If that wa all that happened, I don't think anyone would have a problem with global warming. The problem is that no one knows exactly what will happen.
Member Since: 5 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
...The thing about Science is, it dosent care if one "believe's", it just is..
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Tired of GW stuff...?



Gee,,facts and all dat Jazz is uncomfortable,,but,

Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center


NOAA


Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends. The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.

Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Natural Cycle Climate Change=NCCC
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Quoting pottery:
Last post 3 hours ago.

I know it's the "quiet season", but I have never seen the blog as slow as this before over the last 2 weeks or so.

"New Format" have anything to do with this ?

Good morning.

It was actually 4 hours. ;-) The new format may be part of it, though I seldom read many complaints about it anymore, and most everyone still seems to be here. I think it's just the lull before the storm(s), so to speak, combined with some very nice weather across most of the U.S. that had people out and about.

FWIW, I don't think it's that people are tired of talking about GW; as proof I'd point out that some of the most lively back-and-forth that goes on here is during periods of heavy GW talk. No, to me that argument is somewhat akin to Yogi Berra's alleged comment about a certain dining establishment: "Nobody goes there anymore; it's too crowded!" ;-)

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially gets underway in 100 days, 10 hours, and 27 minutes. Woohoo...
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Quoting pottery:
Last post 3 hours ago.

I know it's the "quiet season", but I have never seen the blog as slow as this before over the last 2 weeks or so.

"New Format" have anything to do with this ?
Good morning Pottery, I think alot are getting tired of the GW stuff. How are you today, still getting wet down there?
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Last post 3 hours ago.

I know it's the "quiet season", but I have never seen the blog as slow as this before over the last 2 weeks or so.

"New Format" have anything to do with this ?
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371. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ATU (11F)
18:00 PM FST February 20 2011
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu, Category Three (973 hPa) located at 17.0S 169.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone was reported as moving southeast at 3 knots. Position poor based on multispectral enhanced infrared radar and visible imagery with peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
45 NM elsewhere


ATU intensified rapidly. Organization has improved significantly in the last 24 hours. Convection remains persistent with center embedded. Outflow restricted to the west of the system, but good elsewhere. Cyclonic circulation extends to 300 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System lies along a surface trough under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates system lying in a moderate sheared environment and decreasing shear along forecast path. System is being steered south by a weak northerly deep layer mean wind.

Dvorak assessment based on embedded center pattern in white surrounding yielding DT=5.0, MET=4.5, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS.

Global models are gradually moving the system south southeast with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.4S 169.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.2S 169.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 21.1S 170.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
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Quoting twincomanche:


Go to Madison and join the people that think we are tanking the Country.


I'm not going to go to Madison. Emotionally I'm conservative: live free or die! Less government=better government. But there is nothing about being conservative that requires shutting down science. Nor is there anything in conservative that requires destroying the environment.

But that is what this generation of conservatives seem to feel. But I guarantee you that all anti environmental conservatives are hard core NIMBY conservatives. If you think raising taxes will hurt America's effort to pay off the debt, you should see what shutting down science will do.

As far as i can see it, the latest generation of 'conservatives' is about making secret deals with the Vandals not to loot their villa in Rome.
Member Since: 5 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Quoting twincomanche:


Actually the opposite is conservative but then he wouldn't know about that. He is such a sad person. So lost and angry.


It's a zinger...eh, sort of, doesn't really 'zing'.
Member Since: 5 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1220
Find the study you disagree with - if its carbon tracking of GGs then specifically what is the problem? If its attribution of extreme events that occur with warming then which ones.

If the globe is warming and getting wetter a lot of it basically goes to reason. Hey it might actually be warmer and wetter more often.

If it was cooler and drier Im sure wed be posting that.

Ad hominem arguments are invalid distractions.

For twenty five years at least in the scientific press climate science has stood and still no real challenge and accumulated just more and more supporting data. The denial politics has been proved wrong so many times its not worth mentioning.
Member Since: 22 mai 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
Quoting Skyepony:
Republicans Side with Big Oil, Reject $53 Billion in Taxpayer Savings
Democrats’ Amendment Would Have Fixed Glitch in Law Allowing Free Drilling
Feb 18, 2011

WASHINGTON (February 18, 2011) – Just as they have done all week during the debate on the yearly government spending bill, Republicans in the House rejected eliminating egregious loopholes and tax breaks given to the oil companies, voting down an amendment that would have recovered up to $53 billion in taxpayer funds from oil companies. The amendment -- offered by Reps. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), Maurice Hinchey (D-N.Y.), George Miller (D-Calif.) and Lois Capps (D-Calif.) -- was voted down by a 251-174 vote.

The amendment to the Republicans’ spending bill would have fixed a flaw put in place by a Republican-controlled Congress in 1995 and seek to recover funds from faulty drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico that allow oil companies to drill without paying any royalties. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has estimated that taxpayers could lose up to an additional $53 billion over the next 25 years as a result of royalty-free drilling when oil prices are high. The Interior Department also informed Rep. Markey that American taxpayers will lose $1.5 billion just this year from this free drilling.

“Republicans once again sided with BP, Exxon and the oil companies, not with the American taxpayer and the poorest Americans most in need of help. This legislation focuses on just the kind of special interest loophole that should be closed before we open attacks on programs for the poorest Americans,” said Rep. Markey. “The biggest oil companies are already getting 100 year-old tax breaks to sell $100 a barrel oil to make $100 billion a year in profits. They don’t need a $53 billion windfall courtesy of American taxpayers and our national deficit.”

“These hugely profitable companies are tapping oil and gas reserves that belong to the American People, selling it back to us,and then reaping a massive profit on the backs of middle-class families," said Rep. Hinchey. "But the real kicker is that these oil companies are not paying one red cent to the public for the oil and gas they have extracted from publicly owned resources. They get it for free - and we pick up the $53 billion tab. American taxpayers are getting ripped off. It's too bad the Republican majority has once again decided to protect big oil at the expense of taxpayers.” ..more here.


Passed in '95. Democrats had control of BOTH houses for the past 2 years, and didn't get it passed. And yet now the Democrats are blaming the REPUBLICANS for something THEY couldn't (or wouldn't) pass?

Sound like the Democrats were protecting Big Oil.
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You say man creates 80-120% (really) of the warming and you expect us to believe it when no real validated numbers exist? I see numbers between .28% and 5% of influence with water vapor included with respect to man's influence on global temperatures. Not anywhere near your touted numbers.


see above.
Member Since: 22 mai 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743

Exactly, they are just preachers. Accept they don't even have their own bible to back it up. They use ignorance of others to get them to believe so called facts.



Just in that one statement there are three or four logical errors and false appeals at least.

So why bother arguing with someone that cant even agree with them-self?

Um your wrong the end.

Member Since: 22 mai 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
Solar dimming - warming its CO2.

Just because its complicated doesn't mean isn't true - the opposite. Also fluctuations are the rule not steady warming. I dont even know where "oh it gonna get warmer in Greenland and be wonderful" comes from. Thats absurd and not how arctic ares respond to warming.

Member Since: 22 mai 2006 Posts: 188 Comments: 24743
Quoting weatherboy1992:


From Dr. Masters link for the national climate data center

January 2011

The combined global land and ocean surface temperature anomaly for January 2011 was 0.38°C (0.68°F) above the 20th century average, resulting in the 17th warmest January since records began in 1880. Separately, both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere land and ocean temperatures were also 0.38°C (0.68°F) above the 20th century average.

It was the 17th warmest in 132 years not 34 years. Dr. Master's title was not misleading.


True. But some people like to post the difference in the hot/cool records, and this can STILL be posted as follows: in the past 132 years, there have been 115 Januaries cooler than present, and 16 Januaries warmer than present.

Seems like this year, the cooler Januaries are ahead (115/16) by a 7.18:1 ratio.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
But my sources are limited for storms in that part of the world.


Let me hook you up with some links then:


1. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html

This is a great link. Click on "Tropical Cyclones" to look specifically at tropical cyclones. Also can click on "Tropical Images & Movies" for satellite, tpw, and more imagery for all the basins. Click on "Nex Sat" to get satellite views over land. Nex Sat is particularly useful over Africa.

2. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realt ime/

This link provides you with just about everything you need to see for the current tropical disturbances.

3. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/

This link has more southern hemisphere satellite imagery.

4. http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/index.shtml

This link is the tropical cyclone home page for Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.
Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting ktymisty:


I understand that. This comment comes from a person who's country has just experienced what you've mentioned, and I still say what I say.

The consequences of a few decades of unrest compared to the benefit? I AM thinking of the consequences :)


Well if the warming trends continue, looks like you could have your wish.
Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Australia is 90% desert. If only another 10% of our land became productive because of climate change, it would cancel out a hundred years of climate devastation!

We live on the fringes of our continent. If we could expand more when it was environmentally OK to do so, I would gladly sacrifice a meter or two of coastal inundation.

And we aren't the only country who'll benefit, maybe that's the problem in your thinking....

( just ignore me if you want :)
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Quoting TomTaylor:

Yea, because multi billion dollar weather catastrophes are great! Along with rising sea levels, species extinction, crop failures, and droughts.

I'm not saying this is all guaranteed to happen. But under a warmer planet, these extremes would all become more likely, so the whole "warming might be a good thing" idea is really a failure to look at the consequences.


I understand that. This comment comes from a person who's country has just experienced what you've mentioned, and I still say what I say.

The consequences of a few decades of unrest compared to the benefit? I AM thinking of the consequences :)
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Quoting Ossqss:


So tell us, how have we tested, via scientific protocol, the AGW theory? Have we been able to reproduce it in a controlled environment?

You say man creates 80-120% (really) of the warming and you expect us to believe it when no real validated numbers exist? I see numbers between .28% and 5% of influence with water vapor included with respect to man's influence on global temperatures. Not anywhere near your touted numbers.

You people just don't get that you distract, with your embellishment of weather events as the worst ever, from the desire to do better for our ecosystem. You weaken rather than enhance, our ability to make change. Figure it out or get out! People don't believe you anymore, for all the right reasons.

Show me a study that conclusively determines how, why, and when cloud formation occurs. That is the starting point (aside from the Sun) that controls our climate. Show us!



Exactly, they are just preachers. Accept they don't even have their own bible to back it up. They use ignorance of others to get them to believe so called facts.

However, being that I went into MET school without a bias, it didn't take long for me to uncover the massive amount of downright deceitfulness these desperate GW people advocate. There is just no real math and science to back it up, its B.S.

Indeed, I can understand why people who are ignorant believe GW. After all, it is good to not be a negative individual. It is good to assume the best about people till you find out otherwise. That being said, its understandable that if someone here's something from someone with PHD credentials, it makes sense to believe them. Yes and no, yes they have earned the right to be a PHD. However, you have to be a complete close minded fool to assume scientists can't be human, you know, like humans can be sometimes? As in people can be deceitful and lie because they have the power and credentials to get away with it.

Before being educated and going to school, I never really was apposed the intense push of man-blamed GW, because I like to think the best of people. However, as I began to understand the laws of science and understand mathematics better, it became shocking how much I was lied to by in essence by "false prophets" preaching man-made GW to me. Just as false teachers do, they twist the truth and make it sound like truth to all those who aren't educated enough about the truth to know it.

Now, I'm not as judgmental as you may be thinking while reading this, I'm not saying all scientists who support man-caused GW are all deceitful liars. However, being someone who is heavy into Theology and Philosophy, I understand the way of being human enough to know this very simple to the answer about Global Warming deceitfulness. If I had gone into college, already having my mind and soul sold onto the GW movement. I could passionately get a PHD, and blindly overlook the evidence against it due to my passion for it. Indeed, that explains the problem. Some are to blame for the deceitfulness of the GW movement. Yet I believe the amount who have a bias for the GW movement because of their passion far exceeds those who are actually being deceitful. This then leads to what we see today, so no, I am not part of the "anti-science" movement. But really? I'm about as much of science lover as you can get, so much for rational thought...

Whatever the case, I don't expect everyone to educate themselves enough to find out the truth about Climate Change, because we all are unique and have different talents, positions, skills, and occupations. Most will not share the same love for science, particularly weather science, so it would be self centered and arrogant for me to expect everyone to pursue it as much as me. Life is short, people should pursue what makes their life gears turn and enjoy life for what it is, a busy man or woman doesn't have time to educate himself/herself heavily in things he/she doesn't have an interest in. Neither should they. That's why we have general education in college, and then a degree in a specified major. There's a reason people don't take multiple majors in college.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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