Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Great Japan quake generates 8-foot tsunami in California

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 23:00 GMT le 11 Mars 2011

A great earthquake rocked the coast of Japan at 5:46 GMT on March 11, generating a dangerous tsunami that raced across the Pacific. The mighty earthquake was rated 8.9 on the Richter scale, making it the 7th most powerful tremor in world history. The world's 8th largest earthquake, a magnitude 8.8 event, hit Chile on February 27, 2010; never before have two top-ten earthquakes hit so close together in time. Today's quake was the strongest in Japanese history, and will likely be the most expensive natural disaster in world history, surpassing the $133+ billion dollar price tag from Hurricane Katrina.

Figure 1. Model-computed energy from the March 11, 2011 tsunami as visualized by the NOAA Visualization Lab.

In the U.S., the highest tsunami waves from the earthquake hit northern California and southern Oregon, with a wave height of 8.1 feet observed at Crescent City, CA, 8.6 feet at Port San Luis, CA, 8.7 feet at Arena Cove, CA, and 6.1 feet at Port Orford, OR. The tsunami swept four photographers out to sea in the Crescent City harbor, injuring three of them and leaving one missing. Extensive damage was done to the harbor and 35 boats. Up to $2 million in damage also occurred in the Santa Cruz harbor south of San Francisco.

Figure 2. Tide gauge at Crescent City, CA during the March 11, 2011 tsunami. The green line shows the height of the tsunami wave; the red line shows the observed water level. The highest tsunami wave came at at 17 UTC (9am PST), an hour and 10 minutes after the initial wave, and was 7 feet high. Image credit: NOAA.

Crescent City was hit by a devastating tsunami after the March 28, 1964 magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Alaska, which killed ten people in the city and destroyed much of the business district. The city is fortunate today that the tsunami hit at low tide, or else water levels would have been five feet higher in the city during the wave. The tide gauge at Crescent City, CA (Figure 2) shows that at least 18 separate tsunami waves have hit the harbor as of 2:45pm PST. The first wave came at about 15:50 UTC (7:50am PST), was about 2.5 feet high, and was not preceded by the ocean falling and water being sucked out to sea. After this initial wave, the ocean level dropped rapidly by 8 feet, and then a series of large waves began rushing in and out, with up to a 13 foot difference between low water and high water. The rapid speed of the in-rushing and outflowing waves were what did the damage to the harbor and its boats. The largest wave came at 17 UTC (9am PST), an hour and 10 minutes after the initial wave, and was 8.1 feet high. Fortunately, this wave came near the time of low tide, and the wave was only 2 feet above last night's high tide mark. Tidal range between low and high tide is about 5 feet at Crescent City. The tide is now rising, and new tsunami waves with height of 3 - 4 feet are still rushing in and out, with the one just before 21 UTC (1pm PST) reaching a height about 2 feet above high tide.

Figure 3. Propagation of the March 11, 2011 Honshu tsunami was computed with the NOAA forecast method using the MOST model with the tsunami source inferred from DART® data. From the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, located at NOAA PMEL in Seattle, WA.

Portlight.org is mobilizing to provide financial assistance to people with disabilities affected by the disaster, and there will undoubtedly be a huge relief effort by numerous charities in the wake of the earthquake. Your financial contributions and prayers for those affected will be valuable.

Jeff Masters

Waves (Feather3)

During our tsunami warning that had been downgraded to an advisory, this afternoon. It was getting closer to high tide, but it was strange, watching the surges: one minute, the beach was bare, and within minutes, a surge would build up as wave after wave, low, but surging, would inundate the beaches....more shots to come.

Categories: Earthquake

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901. SquallyWx 03:00 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: not sure what this implies 0232: The plant operator says the top of the fuel rods is 3 metres above water - AFP, quoting Kyodo That is a major problem. Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

902. Patrap 03:00 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
A Top Fuel Rod is 9 ft out the Coolant...? Dat's a bad way to fly. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

903. sunlinepr 03:01 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
This Europe area was exposed to Chernobyl Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8440

904. beell 03:01 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting Patrap: Staying indoors and maybe in a Basement would be a wise choice,,or Deep underground away from the Source And stay out of the rain. Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12859

905. N3EG 03:03 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
KI (potassium iodide) only works to block radioactive iodine, not cesium. Member Since: 23 avril 2005 Posts: 36 Comments: 202

906. PcolaDan 03:06 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
from BBC #0248: For those of you with Google Earth capability, there's a new website with high-definition satellite images of the affected areas. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

907. Thundercloud01221991 03:06 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
"We are assuming that a meltdown has occurred" at a nuclear power reactor, Japan's chief Cabinet secretary says. FROM CNN Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3655

909. sunlinepr 03:14 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Summary of Chernobyl Fallout health effects; If a meltdown occurs, Japan will most probably suffer from these effects. USA is quite far, and I would say Only an expert should be the one comenting on the effects. Link * Stillbirths, miscarriages, infant mortality, general mortality, cancer mortality, sudden deaths. * Thyroid cancer. * The 40 % increase in all malignancies between 1990 and 2000 correlates with radioactive fallout levels. * Psychological diseases correlate with levels of radioactive pollution. * In adults there is growing evidence of a syndrome marked by deteriorating memory and motor skills, occurrence of convulsions, and pulsing headaches. * In the Chernobyl territories cataracts have become a common disease. * Urogenital illnesses correlate with levels of radioactive pollution, and include interruption of pregnancy, * Diseases of the cardio-vascular system and blood are one of the most common consequences * There is much evidence correlating fallout levels with endocrine/hormone diseases, e.g. incidence rate for Type 1 diabetes mellitus in Belarus. S * In some of the Chernobyl-polluted territories immune systems are compromised, * In the radioactively polluted territories the typical consequence of infringement of the immune system appears as an immuno-deficiency. * There is accelerated ageing among the people in radioactively polluted territories in the Ukraine: * The array of diseases commonly considered exclusive to the elderly is now typical for children in all of the heavily polluted territories. * There are many studies showing a wide range of chromosomal aberrations in the Chernobyl radioactively polluted areas. * In the polluted territories, compared with clean ones, there is increasing morbidity by intestinal toxicosis, gastro-enteritis, dysbacteriosis, sepses, respiratory viruses, herpes infections * There are increases in children%u2019s general morbidity, and increases in rare illnesses in the Chernobyl polluted territories of * Practically all forms of studied nosology are more prevalent[ * Total child morbidity in Ukraine increased by 2.9 times between 1986 and 2001, * Respiratory system diseases occurred everywhere in the polluted territories and tend to correlate with levels of radioactive pollution:- * Cardiovascular system diseases in children occurred more frequently in the polluted territories, * Dental diseases in children are more frequent in the Chernobyl radioactively polluted territories. * Congenital malformations. Increased rates of teratogenic effects reported all over Europe, * The proportion of children with impaired intellectual development is consistently greater in polluted areas. I Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8440

910. Barefootontherocks 03:14 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting beell: And stay out of the rain. Truly. Here's a story I read today. From the 1950s, about a thunderstorm in NY after an above-ground nuclear test in NV. The Troy Incident Member Since: 29 avril 2006 Posts: 135 Comments: 16286

911. Some1Has2BtheRookie 03:17 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: "We are assuming that a meltdown has occurred" at a nuclear power reactor, Japan's chief Cabinet secretary says. FROM CNN I had heard something similar to this, except they were saying one of the reactors was "in danger of a meltdown". Some of the "experts" were questioning if a meltdown was not already in the process. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

912. Neapolitan 03:19 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
0315: In its latest update , Tepco clarifies the problem with Reactor 3: "High Pressure Coolant Injection System of Unit 3 automatically stopped. We endeavoured to restart the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System but failed." Gotta love to hear the world "failed" when talking about radiation containment attempts... Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

913. presslord 03:19 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
The Ukraine government is trying to turn Chernobyl into a tourist destination Link Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

914. Neapolitan 03:20 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Breaking News Alert: Partial meltdown likely under way, AP reports March 12, 2011 10:16:08 PM Japan’s top government spokesman says a partial meltdown is likely under way at a damaged nuclear reactor, the AP reports. Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

915. sunlinepr 03:21 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting Patrap: West Coast USA Danger IF Japan Nuclear Reactor Meltdown..... Very informative link... Excellent Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8440

916. Some1Has2BtheRookie 03:25 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
I just heard that they are pumping sea water into the core of the reactor. I would reason this to be a last ditch effort for it will certainly mean the end of the reactor from being put back into service. Bill Nye, the science guy, is now talking about a report that they are adding boron to the core? I missed his explanation why they would be doing this but he thought it was a drastic measure. CNN Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

917. mbjjm 03:29 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Japan's Met agency has upgrade Friday's earthquake from magnitude 8.9 to 9.0 Member Since: 23 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310

918. N3EG 03:33 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie: Bill Nye, the science guy, is now talking about a report that they are adding boron to the core? I missed his explanation why they would be doing this but he thought it was a drastic measure. CNN I just read that boron is used as a "control" in nuclear reactors. It's been a long time since high school chemistry for me...this is making me feel old. Member Since: 23 avril 2005 Posts: 36 Comments: 202

919. Thundercloud01221991 03:34 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: Very informative link... Excellent can you repost that link I cant find it Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3655

920. SquallyWx 03:34 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
CNN is saying there MAY be a meltdown occurring in 1 or 2 reactors. Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

921. TomTaylor 03:35 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
God the hysteria surrounding this event is ridiculous. I don't know what to say about nuclear power. But I can't say I approve of filling our planet with more of those plants. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3886

922. srada 03:37 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
it seems this meltdown may appear to be happening, if so then why are we sending 50,000 troops? Link Member Since: 17 août 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

923. WatchingThisOne 03:37 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting Xyrus2000: It's got a ways to go before melting through. First it has to get through the reactor casings. Then it has to get through the containment floor. Then it has to get through the flooring under that. If it was built to code, the corium lava would have to melt through quite a bit of material before every making it through. (Chernobyl's corium never made it through and ended up solidifying into long streamers from where it melted). If the reactor is built on top of rock and not near any water table then contamination should be minimal. If it is sand/clay/dirt, the corium would likely turn it into liquid glass which may act as a container once it cooled. The risk for an explosion or outgassing is fairly small unless there is a large pool of water or other quickly vaporizing/decomposable material that the corium comes into contact with. The big danger for contamination in the case of melting through the floor is if the reactor is in a location where it can leech into the water table. Instant superfund site, and you wouldn't want to be eating any of the local sushi for a while. A very good explanation. Thanks. Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

924. PcolaDan 03:38 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
from BBC Problems for second Japan reactor A second nuclear reactor is experiencing serious problems at Japan's earthquake-damaged Fukushima power station in northern Japan, which was hit by a big explosion on Saturday. The plant's operator says pressure is rising inside reactor No. 3 after it lost its emergency cooling system. A similar problem led to a blast at the plant's No. 1 reactor on Saturday. An estimated 170,000 people have been evacuated from the area around the plant, the UN nuclear watchdog says. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

925. SquallyWx 03:38 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting srada: it seems this meltdown may appear to be happening, if so then why are we sending 50,000 troops? Link I was wondering the same thing. We should not be exposing our troops to radioactivity! Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

926. atmoaggie 03:41 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Stepping off into what I know very little about... The "radiation" in this scenario is gamma ray wavelength, is it not? It behaves just as our usual subject matter of UV, visible, or IR. So, I wonder if the gamma ray satellites are sensitive enough at the right frequencies to detect the same from earth and/or atmospheric aerosols, rather than from the cosmos. And if there isn't too much background radiation to actually track a thick enough plume from Japan. Of course, they would have to have the ability to turn around and look nadir. Satellites such as this one: http://fermi.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Seems like a very long shot, but... Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

927. srada 03:42 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting SquallyWx: I was wondering the same thing. We should not be exposing our troops to radioactivity! Yes, ABC is reporting that a partial meltdown is underway so I wouldnt think sending 50,000 of our military personnel over there right now would be the wisest decision especially if and I stress IF this meltdown is the worst case scenario and it affects the US.. Member Since: 17 août 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

928. SquallyWx 03:44 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting srada: Yes, ABC is reporting that a partial meltdown is underway so I wouldnt think sending 50,000 of our military personnel over there right now would be the wisest decision especially if and I stress IF this meltdown is the worst case scenario and it affects the US.. I am not very educated in this area, but hopefully they are not being put in harms way. Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

930. SquallyWx 03:47 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Has anyone noticed the activity in the Gulf of California and in California itself? Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

932. PcolaDan 03:48 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting SquallyWx: Has anyone noticed the activity in the Gulf of California and in California itself? What kind of activity? Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

933. TomTaylor 03:49 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting SquallyWx: Has anyone noticed the activity in the Gulf of California and in California itself? Earthquake activity? What type of activity are you talking about? Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3886

934. SquallyWx 03:51 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: What kind of activity? Earthquake activity. I always feel uneasy about activity after a big quake in another part of the world. Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

935. SquallyWx 03:52 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Link Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

936. TampaSpin 03:52 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
been away all day and after reading backwards, things seem to be falling apart by the second in Japan and the Nukes.....not a good thing at all! Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

937. atmoaggie 03:53 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting JohnTucker: There is no applicable fallout now, there is not likely to be unless the cores are exposed to the atmosphere, and japan is HUGE. Our troops can handle a fallout situation anyway. Japan will be able to deal with it much better with us there. It certainly isn't the first time. ? It's a little smaller than California by sq miles. Huge? Not quite China or Russia huge. Maybe not-tiny would be a better size description? Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

938. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:54 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting SquallyWx: Has anyone noticed the activity in the Gulf of California and in California itself? Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40428

939. Neapolitan 03:56 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
0352: The news coming from Japan remains bleak. Government spokesman Yukio Edano: "We do believe that there is a possibility that meltdown has occurred - it is inside the reactor, we can't see. However, we are acting, assuming that a meltdown has occurred and with reactor number 3 we are also assuming the possibility of a meltdown as we carry out measures." Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

940. PcolaDan 03:56 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting SquallyWx: Earthquake activity. I always feel uneasy about activity after a big quake in another part of the world. Looks fairly normal to me. They constantly have tremors, most not even felt. I could easily be wrong though. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

941. AussieStorm 03:58 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Japanese Government Confirms Meltdown Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) said March 12 that the explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 nuclear plant could only have been caused by a meltdown of the reactor core, Japanese daily Nikkei reported. This statement seemed somewhat at odds with Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano’s comments earlier March 12, in which he said “the walls of the building containing the reactor were destroyed, meaning that the metal container encasing the reactor did not explode.” NISA’s statement is significant because it is the government agency that reports to the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy within the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. NISA works in conjunction with the Atomic Energy Commission. Its role is to provide oversight to the industry and is responsible for signing off construction of new plants, among other things. It has been criticized for approving nuclear plants on geological fault lines and for an alleged conflict of interest in regulating the nuclear sector. It was NISA that issued the order for the opening of the valve to release pressure — and thus allegedly some radiation — from the Fukushima power plant. NISA has also overseen the entire government response to the nuclear reactor problems following the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. It is difficult to determine at this point whether the NISA statement is accurate, as the Nikkei report has not been corroborated by others. It is also not clear from the context whether NISA is stating the conclusions of an official assessment or simply making a statement. However, the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), the operator of the Fukushima nuclear plant, also said that although it had relieved pressure, nevertheless some nuclear fuel had melted and further action was necessary to contain the pressure. If this report is accurate, it would not be the first time statements by NISA and Edano have diverged. When Edano earlier claimed that radiation levels had fallen at the site after the depressurization efforts, NISA claimed they had risen due to the release of radioactive vapors. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13291

942. WatchingThisOne 03:58 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: So this trajectory, though it's the actual observation, would be the real observed fallout path, if it had been released on march 10? It's beginning to sink in just how serious this could be. Thanks for the new post, Dr. Masters. Member Since: 15 juillet 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1249

944. SquallyWx 03:59 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting PcolaDan: Looks fairly normal to me. They constantly have tremors, most not even felt. I could easily be wrong though. I suppose the ones in the Gulf of California are more alarming to me. All occurred in the last week, with the latest being within the last hour. Member Since: 25 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 63

945. TampaSpin 04:03 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: 0352: The news coming from Japan remains bleak. Government spokesman Yukio Edano: "We do believe that there is a possibility that meltdown has occurred - it is inside the reactor, we can't see. However, we are acting, assuming that a meltdown has occurred and with reactor number 3 we are also assuming the possibility of a meltdown as we carry out measures." OUCH! Quoting AussieStorm: Japanese Government Confirms Meltdown Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) said March 12 that the explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 nuclear plant could only have been caused by a meltdown of the reactor core, Japanese daily Nikkei reported. This statement seemed somewhat at odds with Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano’s comments earlier March 12, in which he said “the walls of the building containing the reactor were destroyed, meaning that the metal container encasing the reactor did not explode.” NISA’s statement is significant because it is the government agency that reports to the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy within the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. NISA works in conjunction with the Atomic Energy Commission. Its role is to provide oversight to the industry and is responsible for signing off construction of new plants, among other things. It has been criticized for approving nuclear plants on geological fault lines and for an alleged conflict of interest in regulating the nuclear sector. It was NISA that issued the order for the opening of the valve to release pressure — and thus allegedly some radiation — from the Fukushima power plant. NISA has also overseen the entire government response to the nuclear reactor problems following the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. It is difficult to determine at this point whether the NISA statement is accurate, as the Nikkei report has not been corroborated by others. It is also not clear from the context whether NISA is stating the conclusions of an official assessment or simply making a statement. However, the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), the operator of the Fukushima nuclear plant, also said that although it had relieved pressure, nevertheless some nuclear fuel had melted and further action was necessary to contain the pressure. If this report is accurate, it would not be the first time statements by NISA and Edano have diverged. When Edano earlier claimed that radiation levels had fallen at the site after the depressurization efforts, NISA claimed they had risen due to the release of radioactive vapors. Getting more serious it sounds by the minute. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

946. Neapolitan 04:08 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
0406: More on the specific dangers of Fukushima 1 plant's reactor 3: The BBC's Chris Hogg in Toky says the reactor is fuelled with uranium and plutonium, meaning the consequences of a meltdown are much more severe than at the other reactors. Just keeps getting better. "Minor steam explosion" indeed... Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11143

947. Ossqss 04:09 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Just keeps going! Why? http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/quakes_big.php Because it is not finished? Too much energy in too short of time. I don't like it, again. Think about the plate, something has to give, somewhere......... Member Since: 12 juin 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8154

949. CyclonicVoyage 04:20 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Authorities presuming meltdowns may be under way at 2 other reactors. That's in addition to number 1. Member Since: 30 janvier 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259

950. Skyepony (Mod) 04:21 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Is that it on visible?... The sun came up.. slow this down & zoom in just NE of the lake. Here's Fukushima on a map for reference. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29268

951. TampaSpin 04:21 GMT le 13 Mars 2011
Quoting Ossqss: Just keeps going! Why? http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/quakes_big.php Because it is not finished? Too much energy in too short of time. I don't like it, again. Think about the plate, something has to give, somewhere......... I agree a release of such energy there must have built up more energy somewhere else one would think. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

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