Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

rescue teams could be heading into the lions den a months worth of rad in an hour would mean 2 years worth in 24 hours

"Yukio Edano, Japan's chief cabinet secretary, confirmed that a hydrogen explosion occurred at the Unit 3 reactor on Monday morning, local time. He said people within 20 kilometres of the nuclear plant were ordered to stay inside following the explosion.

He added that the reactor's inner containment vessel, which holds nuclear rods, remained intact."

Note what he did not state: that the containment building was intact.

It has been the same with the other reports; it's always been on the vague side. I have never heard nor read an official statement that the containment building for reactor no. 1 was intact following the explosion. Maybe there has been one.

Does anyone know of an official statement in that regard? Not a statement that *containment* remained intact but that the *containment building* remained intact. We have never had a top-down look at that no. 1 reactor building, and it is difficult to know what the scale is looking at photos that I have seen.

I'm looking for reassurance here, not advancing a position.

WTO

MARKETS ›
NIKKEI 225 /quotes/comstock/64e!i:ni225 9,616 -638.24 -6.22%
Hong Kong /quotes/comstock/08s!i:hsi 23,132 -117.68 -0.51%
Australia /quotes/comstock/27w!i:xao 4,710 -24.65 -0.52%
Shanghai /quotes/comstock/16k!i:000002 3,067 -4.56 -0.15%

1514 shoreacres "OK, it's time for the dumb question of the night.
The Guardian reported just a few minutes ago that "the government's top spokesman, Yukio Edano... told reporters that the head of the plant had told him the reactor and its container vessel were both still intact."
How do they know that? I thought they'd lost all generating and electrical power. How could they do remote monitoring? or any monitoring at all? I may have missed all this earlier in the process...."

Easy, really really easy: wishful thinking. If it works for the fossil fuel companies... the public is just as likely to believe that "all is well" while some nuclear plants go kablooey.
Heck, I certainly believe that "the control room" with nothing left to control "is still intact."
And you can, too! Just clap your hands together and say "I believe in fairies. I believe in fairies..."

1365 JohnTucker "[inre]1354[aspectre] No, that sounds about right. The closest ones didn't have time."

Hadda correct some times (brain crosswitted itself on the S-wave speed, then failed to immediately correct the resulting miscalculation cuz the YourComment box is too short to see the obvious mistakes).

More luck of epicenter placement than of distance that the tsunami didn't do a LOT more damage to the northern SendaiBay cities.
OshikaPeninsula (along with Tashirojima and Kinkasan islands off its south coast) shielded everything north of the mouth of the NatoriRiver from a tsunami direct from the epicenter.
As is... Sendai, Tagajo, Shiogama, Higashimatsushima, and Ishinomaki received only a sideways-spillover tsunami from the main tsunami bulge, instead of getting a direct hit like Minamisanriku.
Even Natori received a measure of benefit since the portion spilling sideways&northward off of the main tsunami bulge was no longer heading toward it.

If the epicenter had been located a bit farther south, the results of a direct-tsunami hit woulda been like total YUCK!!!
Unlike the mountainous eastern coast north of the OshikaPeninsula, most of the northern SendaiBay coast is nearly flat for miles inland before the land reaches 7metres/23feet above sea-level.

Amazon.com just ran out of these $200 geiger counters:

In this other view of the 2nd explosion, there is sound and you can hear various detonations (seems like 3 det.).... There is also a fireball, different from the 1rst. blast...

Bed time for me. Prayers and a lot of them need to go out to the many suffering now and those that might suffer later. Rough times coming for the many that have lost everything they had. Ya, Japan is not a third world country but, parts of it seem far worst now.

Quoting sunlinepr:
In this other view of the 2nd explosion, there is sound and you can hear various detonations (seems like 3 det.).... There is also a fireball, different from the 1rst. blast...

I count three explosions as well. That is at least two too many.

I am a bit concerned about that billowing cloud of steam in your earlier video ... is that still going on?

Quoting alfabob:


Well that pretty much proves it right there. If you listen to the pitch of each explosion, you can tell the first one is muffled and lower pitched. The other two are slightly higher pitched and only one explosion is visible. Definitely have a radioactive plume.

And that is the MOX reactor :(

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


I count three explosions as well. That is at least two too many.

I am a bit concerned about that billowing cloud of steam in your earlier video ... is that still going on?

That's all that has been shown in Youtube and Reuters for the moment... I would say that it should have kept going for a while...

Gnite all.... Thinking about all those brave people in there, working to contain those reactors... being exposed to be blown away or get contaminated... How they should be thinking about their loved ones that were killed and are missing...

and all the complexity that the situation involves...

At evac center in #Fukushima prefecture where pple are getting tested for radiation

Quoting weatherboy1992:
At first I wondered if the triple boom was some sort of echo--but that can't be the case. So far from the explosion---the camera is obviously looking from some miles away--there could not be a triple echo. Not in a few seconds.

Didn't have that echo quality to it. BAM! BAM! BAM! Three explosions, three failures. The question is, what were they?

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Didn't have that echo quality to it. BAM! BAM! BAM! Three explosions, three failures. The question is, what were they?

exchanger condenser and water tank boom boom boom

Was Dr. Masters' blog entry on particulate travel taken down? I'd sure like to see an update on that.

As I recall from that and a GFS forecast that someone posted, the worst of it should stay N of 30 degrees once it gets out into the ocean a bit. Still valid?

Quoting alfabob:
Three main layers of containment.

That, sadly, is exactly what I was thinking. RPV, secondary containment, reactor building.

Edit: and just enough time between explosions for overpressure to rapidly build and propagate through the outer two layers.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for area south of 10S between 90E-125E
2:00 PM WST March 14 2011
=====================================

The monsoon trough lies over the Kimberley, connecting to a weak tropical low [22U] near the WA/NT Border. The low is expected to drift slowly to the southwest over the next few days, remaining weak and over land.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Very Low

Another tropical low [23U] is located near 12S 89E. It is expected to continue to slowly drift southwest and is not expected to move back east of 90E.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Very Low

Quoting sunlinepr:

Looks like above 40 as it goes out of the frame. Do you have an EPAC view?

Edit, er 30 degrees. Was looking at TPW *sheepish look*

Any thoughts on the 5 meter sea level change that did not cause a tsunami? Sorry if this was discussed earlier.

This has gone well beyond the nightmare scenario now and nearly into the worst case scenario.

Japan Earthquake Update (14 March 2011 07:00 CET)

Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) has provided the IAEA with further information about the hydrogen explosion that occurred today at the unit 3 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. A hydrogen explosion occurred at unit 3 on 14 March at 11:01AM local Japan time.

All personnel at the site are accounted for. Six people have been injured.

The reactor building exploded but the primary containment vessel was not damaged. The control room of unit 3 remains operational.

The IAEA continues to liaise with the Japanese authorities and is monitoring the situation as it evolves.

FromLink

RT news service goofed. The Fukushimi Dai-Ichi(#1)and Fukushima Dai-ni(#2) powerplant sites are not located in the city of Fukushima.
They are located near the eastern coast of FukushimaPrefecture.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20102011
10:00 PM RET March 14 2011
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 7 (1002 hPa) located at 11.0S 87.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.5S 86.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 12.2S 84.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.7S 80.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 14.5S 77.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
=====================

System has intensified for the last 24 hours. A cluster persists since 1600z yesterday, but CC satellite imagery shows an exposed ill-defined low level circulation northeast of the convection. Low level inflow is good and also upper level divergence poleward, but easterly wind shear remains rather strong. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a slow west southwestward track within the next days. Current conditions should persist up to Wednesday and wind shear will remain the limiting factor for a rapid intensification. Beyond, it is expected that wind shear decreases and then the system should clearly intensify, but with the slow down towards the south, cooler sea surface temperature might limit intensification.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

"Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) has provided the IAEA with further information ... "

Perhaps not the best source atm.

- Nikkei off 6.2%
- Other Asian markets more or less flat
- Yen has been pulled back down
- All major currencies basically unch
- Dow futures off 54 point (less than 1/2 percent)
- Waiting for Europe - if its going to come apart, it should start there

Remember: massive intervention can be your friend in times of crisis, but it can be risky to plan for a long friendship

A rather somber update at the New York Times:

update on Fukushira nuclear difficulties

The second page is particularly discouraging. They were using FIRE HOSES to get seawater into the containment structure before it blew, if it blew. That seems a poor way to establish circulation through a hot reactor core ("One American official likened the process to 'trying to pour water into an inflated balloon'") ... and any water remaining in the base of the containment structure would not be a happy thing to have around if the corium decides to drop.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:
A rather somber update at the New York Times:

update on Fukushira nuclear difficulties

The second page is particularly discouraging. They were using FIRE HOSES to get seawater into the containment structure before it blew, if it blew. That seems a poor way to establish circulation through a hot reactor core ("One American official likened the process to 'trying to pour water into an inflated balloon'") ... and any water remaining in the base of the containment structure would not be a happy thing to have around if the corium decides to drop.

Which begs the question of what are they doing NOW if they lost the containment structure?

"It's contained to subprime"
"It's only 50,000 bbl a day"

1585 WatchingThisOne "Remember: massive intervention can be your friend in times of crisis, but it can be risky to plan for a long friendship"

Wondering about what kind of massive intervention that the US could do that Japan can't or won't.
Other than lend a few helicopters for search&rescue and for emergency food&water deliveries...

1579 WatchingThisOne "Any thoughts on the 5 meter sea level change that did not cause a tsunami?"

Missed that news item entirely. Sounds interesting, do you have a link to an article?

Speaking of which... NHK reported that a large section of eastern Honshu(Japan) nearest the epicenter has subsided ~0.7metres (a bit less than 2feet4inches).

Quoting Neapolitan:
0227: There were two explosions at Reactor 3, the operator Tepco says - AFP.

TWO explosions? sure sounded like 3 to me, but I can see why they might want to put it as they did.

Quoting aspectre:
I'm just wondering what kind of massive intervention that the US could do that Japan can't. Other than lend a few helicopters for search&rescue and for emergency food&water deliveries...

1579 WatchingThisOne "Any thoughts on the 5 meter sea level change that did not cause a tsunami?"

Missed that news item entirely? Sounds interesting, do you have a link to an article?

Speaking of which... NHK reported that a large section of eastern Honshu(Japan) nearest the epicenter has subsided ~0.7metres (a bit less than 2feet4inches).

I'm sorry but I don't have a link. I was watching NHK. They spoke of a firefighting (I think) helicopter that had spotted a 3m Tsunami at sea headed for Honshu. There were simultaneous reports of a 5m change in sea level (I presume apparent sea level). The tsunami never arrived, although warnings were sounded and evacuation encouraged.

Strange ...

edit: and on intervention, I was thinking more in terms of the currency and futures markets. The Japanese central bank has been busy, but I am fairly sure they are not acting alone:

BOJ injects $183 billion, doubles asset purchases

This new explosion is a totally different type of thing from the first on.

If you look at it slowly then you first see a big orange flame from the right side of the building then the big plume of smoke rises very rapidly and after a few seconds there is visual evidence that a large object or possibly 2 are falling on the left side of the picture from a considerable height and its falling fast so its probably not 'cladding off the building'

According to the 'experts' on the live BBC the reactor contains about 80 tons of high energy fuel. There's a lot of steam type vapour about and a quite strong wind.

The BBC in an interview with an 'expert' asked him what he thought the dangers of radioactivity were and he commented its about the same as a chest x-ray.

Side link from site.
0810: Prof Paddy Regan, a nuclear physicist at Surrey University, says that the radiation levels currently being reported from the leaks at the Fukushima plant would have a similar impact to a chest x-ray, and that evacuations from the area, at this stage, are just precautionary.

Apparently the US carrier of the coast is monitoring the radiation.

Quoting PlazaRed:
The BBC in an interview with an 'expert' asked him what he thought the dangers of radioactivity were and he commented its about the same as a chest x-ray.

Side link from site.
0810: Prof Paddy Regan, a nuclear physicist at Surrey University, says that the radiation levels currently being reported from the leaks at the Fukushima plant would have a similar impact to a chest x-ray, and that evacuations from the area, at this stage, are just precautionary.

Apparently the US carrier of the coast is monitoring the radiation.

If Skye's earlier post is correct, the sailors on the deck of the Reagan got quite a bit more than a chest x-ray passing through a cloud of radiation. This did not make it into the official release from the Pentagon, but it may well be correct.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


That, sadly, is exactly what I was thinking. RPV, secondary containment, reactor building.

Edit: and just enough time between explosions for overpressure to rapidly build and propagate through the outer two layers.

Wouldn't the explosions have to be outside in in order to generate three sounds? If it was inside exploding, the sound wouldn't pass through the outer walls and then cause the explosion, the sound would be the explosion?

Either way, this sucks.

Interesting story on US Naval vessels that are being brought into the relief effort. Serious disaster getting a prompt and equally serious response from the US. Reuters story and photo.

US Naval vessels at or underway to the coast of Honshu



The USS Ronald Reagan

Best wishes for those aboard the Reagan and the other vessels. Make us proud to be American again.

Potassium Iodide - precautions and limitations including dosage maximums

Not that I think we will need it in the US.

Some footage of no. 3 that I had not seen. The last time I saw something that looked like that was the Challenger disaster.

It's bad. We pray for you Japan

0943: "Some of the nuclear fuel may have partially melted down in the overheating," adds our correspondent. "But crucially the primary steel nuclear containment vessels are said to be intact. The authorities report no significant radiation leak, although some Japanese people may be disinclined to trust the authorities who have lied to them about previous nuclear accidents. It looks at the moment as though catastrophe may well be avoided, but the crisis is far from over.

No kidding.

In looking at some detailed reactor cutaways and diagrams, it's obvious that at least two of the three layers of containment are gone on both units #1 and #3. Even if the pressure vessels are still intact--as is claimed--there's likely no way to keep that vessel submerged and cooled.

BBC and CNN say the cooling has failed in units #2 and #4, with #2 being the more critical of the two.

New York Times - Radioactive Releases in Japan Could Last Months, Experts Say

I linked to this article earlier. It is well worth a read.