Rain in Japan threatens to contaminate ground with radioactivity
A low pressure system is located over Japan near Tokyo today, and the counterclockwise flow of air around this low is bringing easterly winds over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which lies to the north-northeast of Tokyo. These easterly winds are blowing radioactivity inland over Japan. As the low tracks northeastward along the coast of Japan today, winds at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will gradually shift to northeast and then northwest, which will move radiation towards Tokyo for several hours, which may be long enough for some radiation to reach the city. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model shows that for a release of radioactivity at 50 meters altitude beginning at 21 GMT on Monday (when an explosion at the #2 reactor was recorded), with repeat releases simulated to occur every 2 hours thereafter, the plumes will stay to the north of Tokyo (Figure 1.) However, a more detailed dispersion model being run by the Austrian weather service shows that the plumes may affect much of the Tokyo area today. Both models predict that by 18 GMT today (2pm EDT), the threat to Tokyo will be over, with more westerly winds blowing the radioactive cloud out to sea.
Figure 1. Forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 50 meters altitude at 21 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity is similated to be released every 2 hours thereafter, going out 24 hours. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
As the low pressure system moves through Japan today, it will bring rain. Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a wide area of rain approaching Tokyo and the Fukushima nuclear plant. Rain is very efficient at removing radioactive particles from the air, and there is the threat of surface and ground water contamination where significant concentrations of radioactive material get rained out. By Wednesday, most of the rain will be gone, and predominately northwesterly winds will build in behind the departing low pressure system. This flow regime will stay in place for the remainder of the week, keeping radioactive emissions from the nuclear plant away from Tokyo, and headed out to sea at low altitudes near the surface.
Ground level releases of radioactivity are typically not able to be transported long distances in significant quantities, since much of the material settles to the ground a few kilometers from the source. If there is a major explosion with hot gases that shoots radioactivity several kilometers high, that would increase the chances for long range transport, since now the ground is farther away, and the particles that start settling out will stay in the air longer before encountering the ground. Additionally, winds are stronger away from ground, due to reduced friction and presence of the jet stream aloft. These stronger winds will transport radioactivity greater distances.
Figure 2. Seven-day forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 8am EDT (12 UTC) today at 50 meters altitude from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Flow of air in the warm and cold conveyor belts of the low pressure system affecting Japan are expected to loft radioactivity to 4 - 5 km altitude, where it will be transported thousands of miles over the coming week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
One case where a ground level release might get lofted to high altitudes is when the source region is located near an approaching low pressure system (extratropical cyclone), as is the case today. On the cold side of the approaching warm front, where the Fukushima nuclear plant is located today, lies a broad band of ascending air called the "cold conveyor belt." This conveyor belt can loft surface air to an altitude of several kilometers in a day, as seen in the trajectory plot in Figure 2. In addition, the "warm sector" of a low pressure system in front of the approaching cold front features a ribbon of ascending air about 100 - 200 km wide called a "warm conveyor belt", which is also capable of lofting surface air several kilometers high in a day. However, there is often considerable precipitation in both of these conveyor belts, which will tend to remove large quantities of radiation before it can be transported long distances. There will be some radiation from Japan lofted to high altitudes today by the low pressure system affecting the region, and if the radiation manages to escape being rained out, it could potentially be transported thousands of miles over the next week. A run of the HYSPLIT model following the path of a radioactive cloud emitted at 12 UTC (8am EDT) this morning shows the radioactivity being lofted 4 - 5 km in altitude and being transported over Alaska over the coming week. After a week of transport, this cloud will be considerably diluted, and I strongly doubt the radioactivity would be harmful to human health if rain or snow were to carry it to the ground over Alaska or Canada, assuming that the radiation levels currently being advertised at ground level in Japan are correct.
Jeff Masters
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0401: An earthquake hits eastern Japan, with the force strong enough to sway buildings in Tokyo.
Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 03:52:05 UTC
Wednesday, March 16, 2011 at 12:52:05 PM at epicenter
Location 35.795°N, 140.804°E
Depth 25 km (15.5 miles) set by location program
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 70 km (43 miles) SSE (156°) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
96 km (60 miles) E (81°) from TOKYO, Japan
142 km (88 miles) S (184°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 13.6 km (8.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
Refresh
Washington (CNN) -- U.S. government experts trying to construct a model of radiation plumes emanating from Japan's Fukushima Daiichi power plant are being hampered by a "paucity of good data," a senior administration official told CNN.
"We have done some (computer) modeling," the official said, noting the government "got a little bit of data" when helicopters from the USS Ronald Reagan encountered low levels of radiation during flights in the area. But information has been scant, the official said, adding, "Garbage in, garbage out."
The official spoke on background because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
TEPCO was claiming that its workers were starting to re-stabilize the situation by using the diesel generator for reactor No. 6 to pump water to cool both reactors... before the evacuation.
Earthquake graphics only show Mag 5+
Including the new Mag 6 by Tokyo
Fukushima Dai-ichi
Nuclear Facility Damage Analysis
Images Collected: March 12, 13, 14, 2011
> Download (PDF)
Japan Earthquake-Tsunami Analysis
Japan
Damage Analysis
Images Collected: March 12, 2011
> Download (PDF)
More....
Link
In Florida we have the Crystal River nuclear plant right on the gulf coast north if Tampa. It's in a surge zone up to 25 feet...
Thanks Rookie, at least I'm not alone...lol..
Link
You think your're confused. Even the experts don't know what is really going on. Just don't worry. It is above most of our heads. It is a very serious situation, but just keep a good perspective and do not fret none over this. I figured I would give you a good Southern expression to make you feel better.
GIGO BP GOM
Acronyms kill you every time.
Link
"Now don't frett about it" was an expression my mama used often.....but she was a "fretter" too. Thank you for that :)
Eric Talmadge,Shino Yuasa, The Associated Press
FUKUSHIMA, Japan - Japan suspended operations to keep its stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after surging radiation made it too dangerous to stay.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the workers dousing the reactors in a frantic effort to cool them needed to withdraw.
"The workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said. "Because of the radiation risk we are on standby," he said.
The nuclear crisis has triggered international alarm and partly overshadowed the human tragedy caused by Friday's earthquake and tsunami, which pulverized Japan's northeastern coastline, killing an estimated 10,000 people and severely damaging the nuclear plant.
Since then authorities have tried frantically to avert an environmental catastrophe at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex in northeastern Japan, 170 miles (270 kilometres) north Tokyo.
Edano said the government expects to ask the U.S. military for help. He did not elaborate. He said the government is still considering whether and how to take up the various offers of help from other countries.
The surge in radiation was apparently the result of a Tuesday explosion in the complex's Unit 4 reactor, according to officials with Japan's nuclear safety agency. That blast is thought to have damaged the reactor's suppression chamber, a water-filled pipe outside the nuclear core that is part of the emergency cooling system.
Officials had originally planned use helicopters and fire trucks to spray water in a desperate effort to prevent further radiation leaks and to cool down the reactors.
"It's not so simple that everything will be resolved by pouring in water. We are trying to avoid creating other problems," Edano said.
"We are actually supplying water from the ground, but supplying water from above involves pumping lots of water and that involves risk. We also have to consider the safety of the helicopters above," he said.
A U.S. nuclear expert said he feared the worst.
"It's more of a surrender," said David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer who now heads the nuclear safety program for the Union of Concerned Scientists, an activist group. "It's not like you wait 10 days and the radiation goes away. In that 10 days things are going to get worse."
"It's basically a sign that there's nothing left to do but throw in the towel," Lochbaum said.
The government has ordered some 140,000 people in the vicinity to stay indoors. A little radiation was also detected in Tokyo, 150 miles (240 kilometres) to the south, triggering panic buying of food and water.
There are six reactors at the plant, and the three that were operating at the time have been rocked by explosions. The one still on fire was offline at the time of the magnitude 9.0 quake, Japan's most powerful on record.
The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency estimated that 70 per cent of the rods have been damaged at the No. 1 reactor.
Japan's national news agency, Kyodo, said that 33 per cent of the fuel rods at the No. 2 reactor were damaged and that the cores of both reactors were believed to have partially melted.
"We don't know the nature of the damage," said Minoru Ohgoda, spokesman for the country's nuclear safety agency. "It could be either melting, or there might be some holes in them."
Meanwhile, the outer housing of the containment vessel at the No. 4 unit erupted in flames early Wednesday, said Hajimi Motujuku, a spokesman for the plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co.
Japan's nuclear safety agency said fire and smoke could no longer be seen at Unit 4, but that it was unable to confirm that the blaze had been put out.
___
Yuasa reported from Tokyo. Associated Press writers Elaine Kurtenbach in Tokyo and David Stringer in Ofunato contributed to this report
Japanese vehicles pass through the ruins of the levelled city of Minamisanriku, northeastern Japan / AP
This is not what you want to see when you view a nuclear power plant from above:
FULL RES
You mean I spelled "frett" wrong. This could be a first.
0433: France is now urging its nationals in Tokyo to leave Japan or head to the south of the country, Reuters reports. It says Paris has asked the Air France carrier to provide planes for the evacuation.
From
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307 698
You still have some of them fans left or did they burn them out when you had them pointed south? West, please. FULL THROTTLE!
Well, we true southerners have our own vocab, ya know.......
I want a fretter also :)
Make mine apple
LOLOL... I can relate.....
http://in.reuters.com/
From the comments section but I'm assuming these are reporters.
To confirm: Anyone else hear that the workers have been allowed back in?
And btw, thanks to all who put our former, uhh, whatever he was.. now known as FloridaHeat... on ignore. I've had him on ignore for two days.. No since jerking everyone's chains at a time like this.
And thanks, everyone for posting the news during the day. At work, I can read it, but can't post, and can't view any flash, or Utube type things.
Workers briefly abandon Japan plant after radiation surge
Link
3.05pm A US nuclear expert said he feared the worst after workers were told to evacuate from the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant. David Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer who heads the nuclear safety program for activist group the Union of Concerned Scientists said:
It's more of a surrender. It's not like you wait 10 days and the radiation goes away. In that 10 days things are going to get worse. It's basically a sign that there's nothing left to do but throw in the towel.
2.58pm Japan's nearest neighbours - Russia, the Korean peninsula and China - say they don't foresee any immediate effects of radiation from Japan's nuclear crisis. Authorities in Singapore said no abnormal changes in radiation levels have been detected, after fake text messages reportedly claimed acid rain could reach Singapore, more than 5000km southwest of Japan.
2.52pm Hong Kong has widened its top-level black travel alert to three more Japanese prefectures.
2.43pm South Korea plans to send an emergency shipment of cooling material to Japan to help control its quake-damaged nuclear reactors. Tokyo has asked for 52 tonnes of boron, a key material used for regulating nuclear chain reactions, as it is running short of the metalloid to cool the overheated Fukushima reactors, Seoul said. "We've sent boron samples. Now, we are scraping up all we got," a South Korean official said.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/magnitude-quake-strik es-japan/story-e6frfkyi-1226019903430#ixzz1GjkwKyR 8
Nearby airports are showing 25+ mph out of the N or NNW.
Thanks; For Reference here, it reads:
Extremely serious levels of radiation have escaped. Dangerously high doses of radiation have been detected in or near the compounds of the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
Japan's worsening nuclear crisis will now be compared to the Chernobyl disaster in the former Soviet Union in 1986.
The Fukushima plant has six reactors. Of them, the No. 2 reactor has begun to release radioactive substances as the suppression pool connected to the reactor containment vessel was apparently damaged.
The No. 1 and No. 3 reactors are also in a perilous situation with their nuclear fuel rods exposed out of cooling water.
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