Rain in Japan threatens to contaminate ground with radioactivity
A low pressure system is located over Japan near Tokyo today, and the counterclockwise flow of air around this low is bringing easterly winds over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which lies to the north-northeast of Tokyo. These easterly winds are blowing radioactivity inland over Japan. As the low tracks northeastward along the coast of Japan today, winds at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will gradually shift to northeast and then northwest, which will move radiation towards Tokyo for several hours, which may be long enough for some radiation to reach the city. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model shows that for a release of radioactivity at 50 meters altitude beginning at 21 GMT on Monday (when an explosion at the #2 reactor was recorded), with repeat releases simulated to occur every 2 hours thereafter, the plumes will stay to the north of Tokyo (Figure 1.) However, a more detailed dispersion model being run by the Austrian weather service shows that the plumes may affect much of the Tokyo area today. Both models predict that by 18 GMT today (2pm EDT), the threat to Tokyo will be over, with more westerly winds blowing the radioactive cloud out to sea.
Figure 1. Forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 50 meters altitude at 21 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity is similated to be released every 2 hours thereafter, going out 24 hours. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
As the low pressure system moves through Japan today, it will bring rain. Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a wide area of rain approaching Tokyo and the Fukushima nuclear plant. Rain is very efficient at removing radioactive particles from the air, and there is the threat of surface and ground water contamination where significant concentrations of radioactive material get rained out. By Wednesday, most of the rain will be gone, and predominately northwesterly winds will build in behind the departing low pressure system. This flow regime will stay in place for the remainder of the week, keeping radioactive emissions from the nuclear plant away from Tokyo, and headed out to sea at low altitudes near the surface.
Ground level releases of radioactivity are typically not able to be transported long distances in significant quantities, since much of the material settles to the ground a few kilometers from the source. If there is a major explosion with hot gases that shoots radioactivity several kilometers high, that would increase the chances for long range transport, since now the ground is farther away, and the particles that start settling out will stay in the air longer before encountering the ground. Additionally, winds are stronger away from ground, due to reduced friction and presence of the jet stream aloft. These stronger winds will transport radioactivity greater distances.
Figure 2. Seven-day forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 8am EDT (12 UTC) today at 50 meters altitude from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Flow of air in the warm and cold conveyor belts of the low pressure system affecting Japan are expected to loft radioactivity to 4 - 5 km altitude, where it will be transported thousands of miles over the coming week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
One case where a ground level release might get lofted to high altitudes is when the source region is located near an approaching low pressure system (extratropical cyclone), as is the case today. On the cold side of the approaching warm front, where the Fukushima nuclear plant is located today, lies a broad band of ascending air called the "cold conveyor belt." This conveyor belt can loft surface air to an altitude of several kilometers in a day, as seen in the trajectory plot in Figure 2. In addition, the "warm sector" of a low pressure system in front of the approaching cold front features a ribbon of ascending air about 100 - 200 km wide called a "warm conveyor belt", which is also capable of lofting surface air several kilometers high in a day. However, there is often considerable precipitation in both of these conveyor belts, which will tend to remove large quantities of radiation before it can be transported long distances. There will be some radiation from Japan lofted to high altitudes today by the low pressure system affecting the region, and if the radiation manages to escape being rained out, it could potentially be transported thousands of miles over the next week. A run of the HYSPLIT model following the path of a radioactive cloud emitted at 12 UTC (8am EDT) this morning shows the radioactivity being lofted 4 - 5 km in altitude and being transported over Alaska over the coming week. After a week of transport, this cloud will be considerably diluted, and I strongly doubt the radioactivity would be harmful to human health if rain or snow were to carry it to the ground over Alaska or Canada, assuming that the radiation levels currently being advertised at ground level in Japan are correct.
Jeff Masters
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Thanks; For Reference here, it reads:
Extremely serious levels of radiation have escaped. Dangerously high doses of radiation have been detected in or near the compounds of the quake-hit Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture.
Japan's worsening nuclear crisis will now be compared to the Chernobyl disaster in the former Soviet Union in 1986.
The Fukushima plant has six reactors. Of them, the No. 2 reactor has begun to release radioactive substances as the suppression pool connected to the reactor containment vessel was apparently damaged.
The No. 1 and No. 3 reactors are also in a perilous situation with their nuclear fuel rods exposed out of cooling water.
2011/03/16
An explosion and fire at the pool containing spent fuel rods at the No. 4 reactor of the quake-stricken Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant Tuesday could prove more serious than explosions at two other reactors.
The fire at the pool could potentially pave the way for another explosion that could destroy the building that houses the reactor and release a large amount of highly radioactive materials into the atmosphere.
At the No. 4 reactor, the pool that contains spent fuel rods is located outside the nuclear pressure vessel and the containment vessel.
The only thing that separates the pool from the outside world is the concrete building that houses the reactor.
The spent fuel rods used at the reactor were stored in the pool, which sits next to the reactor.
Link
"By the time the radiation reached Hawaii or the West Coast, much of the radiation capable of causing harm to people would have left the atmosphere or turned into precipitation and have been "rained out," according to a blog written by Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology for WeatherUnderground.com."
Link
That is compatible with the reaction of neighbor countries, like Russia and China but not from Singapore, although most of the time the wind blows to the Pacific...
2.58pm Japan's nearest neighbours - Russia, the Korean peninsula and China - say they don't foresee any immediate effects of radiation from Japan's nuclear crisis.
Authorities in Singapore said no abnormal changes in radiation levels have been detected, after fake text messages reportedly claimed acid rain could reach Singapore, more than 5000km southwest of Japan.
3.10pm A strong 6.0 magnitude earthquake has struck in the Pacific just off Chiba prefecture, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, with the force strong enough to sway buildings in Tokyo. No tsunami warning was immediately issued but the agency warned of a possible change in sea levels.
Chiba is south East of Tokio, very near... Seems like that fault, from north to south is going to keep shaking...
Today's CNN report to this Dr. who survived Hiroshima, explained how Older people who survived, could resist Radiation affects, while children where the ones who developed , thyroid Cancer and many alterations during adolescence and adultness...
The flexpart model claims to be better than the older hysplit model that Masters has posted. I found the source page..I had to since I found it on Godlikeproductions.. I know..
So that means if that plume dispersion, is true, Geiger counters would be able to detect any anomalies in Washington State and in other cities of the West coast...
Would be nice to get some info about any monitors in the area...
It should be hardly noticeable unless it rains. The particles mostly stay aloft til brought down by rain. This is why we weren't allowed to play in the rain as kids.
nop
During WWII, some kids had to watch out this:
Fire balloon This article is about the Japanese WWII weapon.
Shot-down fire balloon reinflated by Americans in California
A fire balloon, balloon bomb (Japanese: Bsen bakudan, literally "balloon bomb"), or Fu-Go was an experimental weapon launched by Japan during World War II. A hydrogen balloon with a load varying from a 12-kilogram (26 lb) incendiary to one 15 kg (33 lb) antipersonnel bomb and four 5 kg (11 lb) incendiary devices attached, they were designed as a cheap weapon intended to make use of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean and wreak havoc on Canadian and American cities, forests, and farmland.
The balloons were relatively ineffective as weapons but were used in one of the few attacks on North America during World War II.
Between November 1944 and April 1945, Japan launched over 9,300 fire balloons. About 300 balloon bombs were found or observed in North America, killing six people and causing a small amount of damage.[1]
4.02pm A clock that appears to indicate the time when a tsunami struck lies among the rubble in the city of Kesennuma. The Japanese characters read: "40th Anniversary of Foundation". Picture: AP
Gnite all...
Nice job Skye.....very nice find!
Latest Reactor Status
by Reuters_MarkKolmar at 3:26 AM"
Link
TOKYO | Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:51am EDT
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's nuclear crisis appeared to be spinning out of control on Wednesday after workers withdrew briefly from a stricken power plant because of surging radiation levels, but desperate efforts to avert a catastrophic meltdown quickly resumed.
Good link, thanks. Looks from that like Fukushima 2 plant is ok so far.
Workers were "asked to withdraw to a safe area," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said. Authorities later allowed them to return after radiation levels dropped, the Tokyo Electric Power Company said.
Radiation levels at the plant have surged and dropped repeatedly over the past few days. The most recent spike "probably" occurred "because the containment vessel in reactor No. 3 has been damaged," a spokesman for Japan's nuclear safety agency later told reporters.
Edano said the smoke or vapor above the plant may have been caused by breach in the containment structure around the No. 3 reactor's containment vessel -- the steel and concrete shell that insulates radioactive material inside.
http://www.japaneselifestyle.com.au/travel/sendai .htm
The attempt at a helicopter water drop was aborted due to high levels of radiation.
Well, I hope you are wrong. That is quite the "what if" scenario.
Ouch.
Possibly more concerning, however, is that the aftershocks seem to be migrating toward the south, "upping the ante" for Tokyo--a city which just three years ago was given a 30% chance of feeling Sendai-like shaking within the next 30 years. And this wouldn't be a strike-slip quake such as that felt in yesterday's 6.4 Shizokua quake, but rather a megathrust quake, the most damaging kind.
It is conjectured that a sufficiently shallow 8.0 quake under or near Tokyo would have extremely devastating consequences both locally and globally.
32.5 million people live in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
Radioactivity forecast system down
"A computer system that forecasts the spread of radioactivity has not been working due to malfunctioning monitoring posts around a troubled nuclear power plant in quake-hit Fukushima Prefecture.
The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency says it does not know when the system will be back in operation."
NHK World English
Damage at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, is seen in this satellite image taken 9:35 am local time (0035 GMT) on March 16, 2011. REUTERS/DigitalGlobe/Handout
(pours Nyquil into coffee)
Morning, Aqua, hope you are feeling better.
Here is a 17-minute clip that gives a very good overview of the spent fuel rod pool problem. Rachel Maddow interviews Frank von Hippel (sp?) of Princeton. He knows about these things and has some sobering things to say. I recommend it.
msnbc: The Spent Fuel Rod Pool Problem ... it's a big one
I did a total read-back, so I kinda have been here all night
-except comatose-
Both of you have had different names before, right? You know me, I don't know you...
ok WTO- going to review that clip now
I've been WTO (and no one else) since July 2005.
NHK World
Same name since I actively joined. Don't post often. Just learning from an outstanding froup of SME.
Post 690.
If you enlarge this image to full screen then you can see that it is taken from the sea side looking inland.
It is now from here very clear what the extent of the damage is and it seems much worse than from the land side images we have seen.
The damage to the reactor buildings would tend to indicate from this shot that #1,#3, are in a very bad state of damage and it would probably be very difficult to imagine any body working in these buildings at this time especially also given a possible high level of radiation.
Reactor building #2seems to be still in a reasonable state from a structural point of view but with steam/smoke emerging from an opening on the sea side of the building wall.
I would be surprised if any work can be carried out there of much use until a lot of the debris is cleared not to even think about what levels the radiation is really at.
WTO- good video- esp about the colander vs bowl explanation on the used fuel core water pools. I found his weak laughter at the end, imitating a fireman holding a hose, to be a bit disconcerting- ahhh...a benefit of old age "go ahead and destroy your earth, I really don't care, cause I already had my fun" ...such nonchalance
foxx- a snorky good morning to you too
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