Rain in Japan threatens to contaminate ground with radioactivity
A low pressure system is located over Japan near Tokyo today, and the counterclockwise flow of air around this low is bringing easterly winds over the stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which lies to the north-northeast of Tokyo. These easterly winds are blowing radioactivity inland over Japan. As the low tracks northeastward along the coast of Japan today, winds at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant will gradually shift to northeast and then northwest, which will move radiation towards Tokyo for several hours, which may be long enough for some radiation to reach the city. NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model shows that for a release of radioactivity at 50 meters altitude beginning at 21 GMT on Monday (when an explosion at the #2 reactor was recorded), with repeat releases simulated to occur every 2 hours thereafter, the plumes will stay to the north of Tokyo (Figure 1.) However, a more detailed dispersion model being run by the Austrian weather service shows that the plumes may affect much of the Tokyo area today. Both models predict that by 18 GMT today (2pm EDT), the threat to Tokyo will be over, with more westerly winds blowing the radioactive cloud out to sea.
Figure 1. Forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 50 meters altitude at 21 UTC Monday, March 14, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Radioactivity is similated to be released every 2 hours thereafter, going out 24 hours. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
As the low pressure system moves through Japan today, it will bring rain. Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency show a wide area of rain approaching Tokyo and the Fukushima nuclear plant. Rain is very efficient at removing radioactive particles from the air, and there is the threat of surface and ground water contamination where significant concentrations of radioactive material get rained out. By Wednesday, most of the rain will be gone, and predominately northwesterly winds will build in behind the departing low pressure system. This flow regime will stay in place for the remainder of the week, keeping radioactive emissions from the nuclear plant away from Tokyo, and headed out to sea at low altitudes near the surface.
Ground level releases of radioactivity are typically not able to be transported long distances in significant quantities, since much of the material settles to the ground a few kilometers from the source. If there is a major explosion with hot gases that shoots radioactivity several kilometers high, that would increase the chances for long range transport, since now the ground is farther away, and the particles that start settling out will stay in the air longer before encountering the ground. Additionally, winds are stronger away from ground, due to reduced friction and presence of the jet stream aloft. These stronger winds will transport radioactivity greater distances.
Figure 2. Seven-day forecast movement of a plume of radioactive plume of air emitted at 8am EDT (12 UTC) today at 50 meters altitude from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Flow of air in the warm and cold conveyor belts of the low pressure system affecting Japan are expected to loft radioactivity to 4 - 5 km altitude, where it will be transported thousands of miles over the coming week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
One case where a ground level release might get lofted to high altitudes is when the source region is located near an approaching low pressure system (extratropical cyclone), as is the case today. On the cold side of the approaching warm front, where the Fukushima nuclear plant is located today, lies a broad band of ascending air called the "cold conveyor belt." This conveyor belt can loft surface air to an altitude of several kilometers in a day, as seen in the trajectory plot in Figure 2. In addition, the "warm sector" of a low pressure system in front of the approaching cold front features a ribbon of ascending air about 100 - 200 km wide called a "warm conveyor belt", which is also capable of lofting surface air several kilometers high in a day. However, there is often considerable precipitation in both of these conveyor belts, which will tend to remove large quantities of radiation before it can be transported long distances. There will be some radiation from Japan lofted to high altitudes today by the low pressure system affecting the region, and if the radiation manages to escape being rained out, it could potentially be transported thousands of miles over the next week. A run of the HYSPLIT model following the path of a radioactive cloud emitted at 12 UTC (8am EDT) this morning shows the radioactivity being lofted 4 - 5 km in altitude and being transported over Alaska over the coming week. After a week of transport, this cloud will be considerably diluted, and I strongly doubt the radioactivity would be harmful to human health if rain or snow were to carry it to the ground over Alaska or Canada, assuming that the radiation levels currently being advertised at ground level in Japan are correct.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index
What????????????
It's the disdain that's offensive, no matter who it's coming from or what it's over. Bunch of kids on here today, including some grownups.
Trolls will be trolls, but few trolls are as bad as religious trolls. Do not feed them. Do not encourage them. Minus, flag, and/or ignore. Otherwise their vitriolic hate, self-righteous bigotry, and hypocrisy will drag everyone down to their level.
Another expert noted that normally there are 500-800 workers on site, and that's when things are working correctly. During a problem with a single reactor, there might be a thousand or more people at work. But now with six reactors in some state of distress, there are just 50 individuals...fewer than nine per reactor.
Of course, both experts emphasized that the relatively unsheltered spent fuel in units #4 through #6 presented a substantially larger potential for disaster than did units #1 through #3.
You behaving yourself, Teddy? (You sound like Lawrence Welk, or are you making a funny about WU?)
Only some egotistical hypocrites with delusions of godhood insulting everyone and anyone who does not agree with their personal view on morality and/or share their beliefs in various works of mythological fictions.
How's it goin'? :)
The latter. ;)
Watching the Tropical Storm in the Southern Atlantic & Japan on CNN.
How did you know I was playing Bingo??? Had to be somebody at the next table.
Are you kidding?????
You are correct ATMO as usual ! It, unfortunately, becomes easy for me to be lead into a place I don't want to go after a lengthy day of brain cramping work and the subsequent calculations. I gotta work on that for sure :)
I just wish we did not have a constant push of political and/or ideological positions on a regular basis. It grows tiresome for we used to have much more fun without it, did we not? The current way of blogging here sucks the life out of this place for many.
Oh well, on to tomorrow or off to DQ for a Banana split fudge sunday :)
L8R ~~~
Going pretty good. Xy, most hypocrites are egotistical. Piety comes from the soul, not the mouth. (P.S. I used to know a Xyrus when I was in one of Aristotle's boring classes, any relation?)
Oh, he would know, he was calling the numbers.
I listened to the whole thing Grothar... been years since I've seen that video. Thanks for the smile.
"We must hang together, gentlemen...else, we shall most assuredly hang separately." BF
You're welcome MrMixon. I always liked like myself.
Yep, Arani is becoming more tropical in nature and its core is warming. This means we will see Tropical Storm Arani later on tonight or tomorrow morning...
Banding is forming all over and the circulation has fired up Convection on it's west side...
..grabs Jug'o'Nyquil, wanders off again...
"A true friend is someone who thinks that you are a good egg, even though he knows that you are slightly cracked." -- Bernard Meltzer.
0029: Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) says it will be extremely difficult to spray water from a helicopter to cool down a storage pool for spent nuclear fuel in the No.4 reactor at the Fukushima Daiichi plant. Earlier Japanese news agency Kyodo reported that the storage pool could be boiling, while Tepco said readings showed high levels of radiation, making the building inaccessible.
"An unknown photographer inspired legions of tornado-chasers when he captured the earliest known photograph of a tornado. The black-and-white image was taken on August 28, 1884, about 22 miles (45 kilometers) southwest of Howard, South Dakota."
In any event, kudos to all the folks posting on-topic, useful info. Keep it up. This blog is very widely read for that reason.
Tsunami
Somehow I knew you would quote Mark Twain.
No relation. Not that old. However, a part of my future chemical makeup may have been floating around them thar parts. :)
Edit : From the blog below #29 ? Thanks I have also viewed elsewhere that they have #4 under control. I hope so. We need good news........
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307 698
3/14/2011 By Gunnery Sgt. Leo A. Salinas
Marine Corps Bases Japan
Lance Cpl. Brandon McCormick, left, and Sgt. Tony Hinds set up a satellite system here March 14 as part of Operation Tomodachi. Personnel with III Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) established a humanitarian assistance center here to assist Government of Japan-led relief efforts following the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck mainland Japan March 11.
Marine Corps Bases Japan
Marines from III Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) disembark from a CH-46E Sea Knight helicopter here March 14 during Operation Tomodachi. Personnel with III MEF (Fwd) established a humanitarian assistance center here to assist the Government of Japan-led relief efforts following the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck mainland Japan March 11.
Drop it, RS.
MarinesTV
Success is a journey, not a destination
Achievement seems to be connected with action. Successful men and women keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
The ability to discipline yourself to delay gratification in the short term in order to enjoy greater rewards in the long term is the indispensable prerequisite for success
Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has. -Margaret Mead
Viewing: 351 - 401
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 — Blog Index