Favorable winds over Japan continue; all-time record heat in Mumbai, India
Favorable winds blowing at 10 - 20 mph out of the northwest continue over Tokyo, Japan today, and these winds will take radiation particles emitted by the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant immediately out to sea, without lingering over Japan. The northwesterly winds are blowing in response to the clockwise flow of air around a high pressure system approaching Japan from the southwest. Since high pressure systems are regions of sinking air, the radiation will stay close to the ocean surface over the next day or two as the air spirals clockwise over the Pacific.
Figure 1. Surface weather map for 8am EDT today, taken from the 6-hour forecast from this morning's 6 UTC run of the GFS model. A high pressure system to the southwest of Japan, in combination with a low pressure system to the northeast are driving strong northwesterly surface winds over the country. Image is from our wundermap with the "Model" layer turned on. The lines are sea-level pressure (blue contours, 4 mb interval) and 1000 to 500 mb thickness (yellow contours, 60 m interval). Thickness is a measure of the temperature of the lower atmosphere, and a thickness of 5400 meters is usually close to where the dividing line between rain and snow occurs.
As the high pressure system moves northeastwards and passes just east of Japan on Saturday, winds will gradually shift to the west and then southwest, keeping the radiation from the Fukushima plant blowing out to sea. As the winds shift to southwesterly, the sinking air over Japan will be replaced by rising air, and radioactive emissions will begin being lifted high in the atmosphere. Since there is less friction aloft, and the high speed winds of jet stream increase as the air moves higher in the atmosphere, this radiation will undergo long-range transport. Latest trajectory runs using NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Figures 2 - 4) show that radioactivity emitted today and Friday could wind up over Alaska and eastern Siberia after five days, and radioactive particles emitted on Saturday could make it to Hawaii and California by late next week. I've made trajectory plots for the next three days assuming two possible release altitudes--a surface-based release near 10 meters, which should be the predominant altitude in the current situation, and a higher release altitude of 300 meters, which might occur if there is an explosion and major fire. However, the 5-day trek to Hawaii and California is 4000 - 5000 miles, and a tremendous amount of dispersion and dilution of the radioactive plume will occur. Given the current levels of radiation being emitted, any radioactivity reaching Hawaii or the U.S. may be difficult to detect, and will not be a threat to human health. Keep in mind also that the most dangerous radionuclide to human health in the radioactive plume--Iodine-131--has a half life of eight days, so will be reduced by at least 30% after 5 days of travel time.
The next period of onshore winds that will blow radioactivity inland over Japan will occur beginning on Saturday night (U.S. time), continuing through Sunday morning, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The latest HYSPLIT trajectories show that regions of Japan north of the disaster site would be most at risk of receiving radioactive fallout on Saturday night. On Sunday and Monday, an approaching low pressure system is expected to bring considerable rain to Japan, and it is uncertain at this time what direction the wind might blow during this rain storm.
Figure 2. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Thursday, March 17, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes initially spiral clockwise around the high pressure system to the southwest of Japan and stay near the surface. By Saturday, though, the plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. Ascending air lifts the plumes to high altitudes, where winds are stronger and rapid long-range transport occurs. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 3. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Friday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system. The plume emitted near the surface (red line) stays trapped near the surface for 4 days then lifted to 2 km, but the plume emitted at 300 meters is lifted to 5 km altitude after 2 1/2 days by the rising air associated with the approaching low pressure system. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 4. Five-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 300 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Saturday, March 18, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The plumes get caught in a southwesterly flow of air in advance of an approaching low pressure system and lifted to 4 - 5 km altitude. The plume emitted at 10 meters (red line) ends up getting caught in the clockwise circulation of air around a high pressure system situated north of Hawaii, and spirals down towards the surface in the high's sinking air. The plume emitted at higher altitudes (blue line) ends up escaping this high and making it over California at high altitude, getting caught in the southwesterly flow around a low pressure system predicted to affect California next week. Images created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Resources
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant
The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.
Current radar loops from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Mumbai hits its hottest temperature of all-time
The temperature in Mumbai (formerly Bombay), India skyrocketed to an all-time high of 107°F (41.6°C) yesterday, March 16, at the downtown Colaba observatory. Records at the observatory go back to 1847, which may be the longest time series of temperature observations at any location in Asia. Mumbai's previous all-time record temperature was 105°F (40.6°C) recorded on April 19, 1955. Mumbai's Santacruz Airport, located in the suburbs several miles inland, did not set an all-time high yesterday, hitting 41.3°C (all-time record: 42.2°C on April 14, 1952.) The record heat yesterday was due to an unusually hot and dry northeasterly flow of air from the center of India that kept the usual cooling sea breeze from establishing itself along the coast. Hot weather continued in Mumbai today, with the mercury hitting 102°F (39°C.) Thanks go to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera for supplying these statistics for me.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good Morning! 86 and partly Cloudy today in Orlando. Summer is coming early for us folks in FL. Highest it's been so far here in Orlando is 89 and that was in February. An amazing stretch of warm temps since about 2/15/2011. Should tag 90 mid next week here in C FL.
Dwight Howard is da man. I hope they go far this year. And especially knock off the damn heat!!
It has been nice weather here, going to bet a hot summer i believe. I hope we are going to be able to keep Dwight next year but have a feeling he will be leaving soon
As long as it relies upon man-made electricity to maintain control if and when everything shuts down (all hell breaks loose), this is no longer a viable alternative energy source to me.
Reminds me of The Weather Channel when there's a tornado watch
somewhere and Stephanie Abrams is on-air. You would swear 50,000 people
were fixing to die.
I don't understand what's wrong with it?
sheri
Chicklit..just go do it!!!.. before it's tooo late .
I was referring to Grothar and his brother Sweet Miss Nadia, but thanks.
Seems to have messed up the blog for me for whatever reason.
3 milliSieverts at 300 meters
87 milliSieverts at 100 meters
Water is getting to the storage pools, but some of the spent fuel is still uncovered partially.
NHK compared the situation to 3 Mile Island at this point.
Electricity to pumps expected to be completed on Saturday.
An eyewitness testified to the strength of the quake. He had to hold on to a pillar to stay upright. He was in Reactor 4 at the time. People came out of Reactor 3 during the quake also. They had difficulty because power was knocked out by the quake. The fact that these people left the building testifies to the strength of the quake.
Looking at the site for the reactors, they appear to be built on a filled in area. This type of site sometimes amplifies the effects of a quake, but I don't know if they sunk piles down to bedrock.
Access to the quake/tsunami/nuclear incident (QTNI) area is hindered by the inability to use the main north south road through the plain. Supplies have to come in via a central north south road and then have to cross mountains to get down to the plain. Lack of fuel to run vehicles into the area is a problem. Some trains have started running to bring fuel to the area. There is a shortage of kerosene to heat shelters.
Patrap's link to NHK is a very good source for on the ground news. NHK
Overnight lows a little below to above freezing still expected. Day time low double digit temps are expected. High tide warning is also expected. Rain is expected on saturated ground.
I have not seen anything yet that shows just how far the tsunami went inland.
If you travel up the coast from Tokyo you will find many power plants. These include the crippled reactors and coal and oil fired power plants. The plants are all located right on the sea side just like the nuclear plants. The plain is only 4 to 6 km wide so this type of siting makes a lot of sense from a logistics and cooling standpoint. All the plants can receive fuel via ocean going vessels.
sheri
Two words, not happening. They have no chance of getting knocked out in the first round if they play the Knicks. Remember, the Cavs have barely any weapons and they still beat New York.
Miami, even though with Wednesday's loss, now has everything under control.
I know it is low but I thought that we were not supposed to get radiation here in the US
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #14
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHERONO (07-20102011)
16:00 PM RET March 18 2011
==========================================
At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Cherono (995 hPa) located at 16.8S 70.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.
Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle
Near Gale Force Winds
=======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.9S 67.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 19.1S 64.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 21.4S 59.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 23.0S 54.6E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)
Additional Information
=====================
Overall pattern has deteriorated this afternoon with a weakening trend compared to 24 hours ago. AQUA of 853z shows an exposed low level circulation center located to the northwest of convection suggesting some northwesterly constraint. However it is not indicated on CIMSS analysis. An arc of cirrus is seen on both infrared and wave imagery in the northwestern quadrant. Moreover mimic TPW still suggest that some dry air is currently present in the northern semi-circle.
Upper level environmental conditions remain favorable with a weak vertical wind shear and a good poleward outflow. Conditions aloft should remain favorable up to Saturday night. Beyond, system should undergo a strengthening vertical wind shear ahead of a deep mid latitude trough. However, given the current trend and last STIPS output, intensification trend has been lowered in this package.
000z Numerical Weather Prediction outcomes remains in rather good agreement for a west southwest track on the the northern edge of the low to mid levels subtropical ridge for the next 60-72 hours. Beyond some of the models forecast a southward recurvature and other models continue to track the system west southwestward. At day 4-5, and according to Numerical Weather Prediction fields, a strong weakness should appear within the subtropical ridge ahead of the system and may result in a southward turn of the residual low.
UNHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE OR OVER THE ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
ok that makes sense although you know the media is going to overplay it now
Handled them.....when they were down and out. Boston would be the only team that i'm even close to worrying about. Wins over the Lakers and a blowout of the Spurs and Grizzlies shows they're back again.
You think Mickey is gonna wear a gas mask today?
Remember, Miami couldn't beat too many great teams in the 2005-06 season, and you know what happened? They won the 'ship. It's going to be fun.
All I can say is not what i've seen. I'm going to the game tomorrow night against the Nuggets, and i'll tell you how it is. Oh yeah, I forgot, so many people were screaming defense so loud when they played it almost broke my speakers. Tell me, whose fans are those?
Not to be mean, but does she really have a degree with anything to do with weather? I have seen her make so many unscientific statements and errors that are way off and I'm just a weather student. Would you agree?
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