La Niña becomes weak; February the globe's 14th-17th warmest on record
The equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific off the coast of South America have steadily warmed during March, and it appears increasingly likely that the current La Niña event will be over by June. This week, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", warmed to 0.8°C below average, according to NOAA. This puts the current La Niña in the "weak" category for the first time since the event began in July 2010. If these SSTs continue to warm such that they are no more than 0.5°C below average, the La Niña event will be over, and we will be in "neutral" conditions. An animation of SSTs since late November shows this developing warmth nicely. Springtime is the most common time for a La Niña event to end; since 1950, half of all La Niñas ended in March, April, or May. The weakness displayed by the current La Niña event has prompted NOAA's Climate Prediction Center to predict that La Niña will be gone by June. As La Niña continues to wane, we can expect that rainfall over the drought regions of the southern U.S. will gradually return to normal levels by mid-summer.
Figure 1. Latest runs of the long-range El Niño models have 5 predictions for La Niña conditions during hurricane season, 7 for neutral conditions, and 5 for El Niño. Image credit: IRI.
Impact on hurricane season
It is well-known that when an El Niño event is in place, a significant reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity results due to an increase in wind shear. With La Niña likely gone by June, what are the chances of having El Niño in place by the August-September-October peak of hurricane season? Well, our long-range El Niño models do a poor job of making accurate predictions in the spring, a phenomena known as the "spring predictability barrier." True to form, the March predictions by these models are all over the place (Figure 1.) There are 5 predictions for La Niña conditions being present during the upcoming hurricane season, 7 predictions for neutral conditions, and 5 predictions for El Niño. If we look at past history, since 1950, there have been six La Niña events that ended in the spring. During the subsequent hurricane season, two of those years experienced El Niño conditions: 1951 (10 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes) and 1976 (10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) The other four years had neutral conditions during hurricane season. These years were 1968 (8 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 0 intense hurricanes), 1989 (11 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes); 1996 (13 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 intense hurricanes); and 2008 (16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes.) An average hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, three of these six analogue years had five or more intense hurricanes (including one of the El Niño years). Looking at sea surface temperature in the hurricane main development region (MDR), the stretch of ocean between the coast of Africa and Central America, including the Caribbean, February temperatures this year were 0.62°C above average, the 7th highest February anomaly since the late 1800s. Of the six analogue years since 1950 when La Niña ended in spring, only 1996 had a much above average February SST anomaly in the MDR (0.61°C.) Thus, I believe it is a reasonable speculation at this point to predict this year's hurricane season will be similar to 1996, with its 13 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes--assuming we end up with neutral and not El Niño conditions this fall.
Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for February 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
February 2011: 14th - 17th warmest on record for the globe
February 2011 was the globe's 17th warmest February on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated February the 14th warmest on record. February 2011 global ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record, and land temperatures were the 28th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were average, the 14th or 17th coolest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The global cool-down from November, which was the warmest November on record for the globe, was due in large part to the moderate strength La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific. The large amount of cold water that upwells to the surface during a La Niña typically causes a substantial cool-down in global temperatures. The coldest places on the globe in February, relative to average, were Eastern Europe and northeastern Siberia. Central Africa, central China, and western Greenland were exceptionally warm. For the contiguous U.S., February temperatures were near average, ranking the 51st coldest in the 117-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Precipitation was also near average, ranking as the 41st driest February since 1895. February 2011 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was tied for the lowest on record in February, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Satellite records extend back to 1979. This is the third consecutive month of record low Arctic sea ice cover.
Mostly offshore winds expected over Japan through Thursday
Radioactive plumes emitted from Japan's troubled Fukushima nuclear power plant will mostly head to the south today, passing just east of Tokyo. Northerly winds wrapping around the back side of an area of low pressure moving out to sea to the east are responsible for this pattern. As high pressure builds in over the next few days, mostly offshore winds will carry radiation from the Fukushima plant out to sea. This should change on Friday, when an approaching low pressure system will once again bring northeasterly onshore winds to Japan, possibly blowing heightened levels of radioactivity into Tokyo.
Figure 3. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Tuesday, March 22, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Mostly offshore winds are predicted to keep the plumes east of Tokyo. Image created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Figure 4. One-day forecast movement of plumes of radioactive air emitted at 10 meters altitude (red line) and 100 meters (blue line) at 18 UTC (2pm EDT) Wednesday, March 23, 2011 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Offshore winds are predicted to carry radioactivity away from Japan. Image created using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model.
Resources
The Miami Herald has an interesting article discussing how Japan's earthquake caused a 3-inch jump in ground water levels in South Florida 34 minutes after the quake struck on March 11.
Seven-day weather forecast for Sendai near the Fukushima nuclear plant
The Austrian Weather Service is running trajectory models for Japan.
Spring is here, and wunderground has set up an eCard to send messages to friends and family celebrating the arrival of spring.
My next post will probably be on Thursday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I'm sure Kobayashi could do it, he does eat 50 hot dogs in 10 minutes.
some models show warm neutral... but the best model -ECMWF- is showing cold neutral... that will be interesting to see
xD ya se me fue lo poco que sabia de ingles
Looks like today's run is focused on the source. Ill wind day for them.
beautiful
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That's great news, and shows a clear Decline in the Increase of Worrisome Warming.
Now, all we have to do is stop the Techtonic Plates moving around, and clean up the air from the Radiation and other Pollutants, and Purify the Sea, and a few other minor annoyances and all will be well.
Of course, it will be far simple to let someone else do all that stuff....
If you could just squeeze a few more "look at that!", "that's nuts!" and holy Mackerels in there you might have something. I can't believe I actually wasted the 2 minutes to watch that! There's always a first time, and a last time!
At least it's weather related...that is an impressive low!
Right.
While I possess no advanced degrees in nuclear physics, my basic common sense tells me that the situation in Fukushima isn't a harmless thing. It also tells me this latest incident isn't just some meaningless glitch in an industry with an otherwise stellar safety record. While I am fully aware that the chances of fallout from the Fukushima plant adversely effecting the health or safety of anyone in the States is minute, I'm talking about the larger picture here. The fact is, nuclear is dirty, nuclear is dangerous, and--more importantly--nuclear is forever, or close to it. True, it doesn't produce the ridiculous amounts of CO2 that the burning of fossil fuels does. But I still doubt that our descendants hundreds of generations from now are going to look back on us with kindness for leaving them with such a toxic mess.
Big Energy will try to tell us that either we must accept nuclear power as it stands--dirty, dangerous, and with limited oversight by objective third parties--or deal with the environment-shredding, sky-clogging, ice-melting nightmare that fossil fuels have become. They'll try to tell us that there are no viable alternatives now, nor will there be any time in the next hundred years. They'll try to tell us that the status quo must be maintained at all costs because doing so is patriotic, and the way it's done, and so on, and so forth.
And in every single case, they'll be lying. Now, none of use can stop those profit-driven lies. But each of us has the right to not believe them.
I certainly don't.
This is either the 5th or the 9th best post you have ever made.
what about 6 or 7 or 8
The sad part about the whole energy outlook is that there are so many clean, alternative forms of energy out there. Of course, the "but they're too expensive" card will be played. Not if we factor in the cost to cleanup energy based environmental disasters! How many solar and wind farms could we build with the money used in the last decade or two to cleanup oil spills and nuclear accidents alone?
I would REALLY like to know how the whole nuclear package stacks up against some of those energy alternatives. Once you factor in the cost to build state of the art plants, waste disposal and PROPER safety regulations and best practices, I think nuclear would be more. I could be wrong though as I'm no energy expert. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that we're not using the right forms of energy. Unfortunately, there is no magic energy wand we can wave to instantly transform our energy portfolio into a desirable one. That takes time, money and political will. At least we have time...or do we ?
Oh... My... God... !!!
Perhaps this has already been discussed, but...
Guess I missed the memo, but how many of you have noticed the "latest" version of NCEP/NOAA GFS Western North Atlantic charts? - the view has been severely cropped!!!
So much for tracking tropical systems off Africa from NCEP/NOAA site - and even worse, we now have lost viewing about 20 degrees longitude (and chopped off latitude as well) worth of weather between the Africa charts and the W Atlantic!!! WTF??? Who is the idiot monkey-in-charge responsible for this???
For reference, here's a view of previous GFS W Atl 500 mb chart from last year during Danielle / Earl, 8-25-10 00Z...
...and this is the skimpy version ("new" W Atl 500 mb GFS, current 12Z) we're offered now... (sorry, couldn't post direct comparison without blowing out blog page width)
What incredible stupidity!
An early April Fools joke???
Not that this latest "improvement" will affect me worse than already planned - come April 5th when the NCEP's "new" Flash-10-only based model guidance page replaces the current version, I'll lose the ability to view the GFS or any models again on my older non-compatible computer from their site... Pitiful... Welcome to the future where apparently less info / diminished availability to the masses is supposedly an improvement! Sheeeeeessssshhhhhh....
LOL, and ya thought the new WU page site was bad - at least WU, thankfully, still gives us old hardliner luddites the classic version!
Dr Jeff - care to weigh in on these NCEP/NOAA changes???
Do you have a link available to view the chart in full-size?
Well that just Bites Doc.
No one was hurt, but firefighters had to cut throhttp://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/admin/wo_ment.php ugh it so the occupants could get in and out. There have also been two call-outs on the North Shore for water blowing through ceilings. In the 24 hours up until 8am this morning, 32mm of rain fell in Whangarei; 46mm in Whangaparaoa; 25mm at Auckland Airport; 143mm in Whitianga; 147mm at The Pinnacles in the Coromandel Ranges; 56mm in Tauranga; 30mm in Rotorua; 49mm in Whakatane, and 67mm in Gisborne. The heavy rain has now cleared for Northland and Auckland, and should clear for the Coromandel Peninsula by 10am. But heavy rain warnings remain in place for Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, MetService said. Forecaster Geoff Sanders said rain was continuing to fall steadily this morning in Gisborne at 2.5mm an hour. A further 30-50mm is expected in the Bay of Plenty east of Rotorua up until midday as the heavy rain eases from the west this morning. Up until 1pm another 40-60mm is forecast for Gisborne, possibly peaking to as much as 25mm an hour, and until 2pm another 40-60mm is expected for the Hawkes Bay north of Napier. Mr Sanders said the east North Island would continue to get light rain this afternoon but by early tomorrow morning those falls should be gone. MetService warned the rainfall could lead to slips and swollen rivers and coupled with very high tides could threaten to cause surface flooding in low lying coastal areas.
"It's flooding but it's not severe yet, there is water over the road," she said. "Our front lawn is flooded and it probably will go into the bottom level of our house, we have been down there and tried to move some furniture up. "I'm not going to go down and check because I can't look. "We have had an extraordinary amount of rain, to the point that there is going to be water damage tomorrow." Parks Victoria spokesman Steve Gartland said there had been "extremely" heavy rain and flooding through camp sites. He said staff were working to keep campers safe, moving them to higher ground if necessary. Evacuation was not possible because the main road to Tidal River was flooded but police and SES crews were assessing the situation, he said. He said no injuries had been reported. An SES spokesman said campers would be evacuated if the situation worsened. He said the weather was too severe to use helicopters and campers would be evacuated by 4WD or boat, depending on conditions. Senior Sergeant Steve Gibson said rescue crews were in the area searching for campers. "We have had an incredible amount of rain, over 200mm tonight," he said. "At this stage, we're still trying to get people across the river. "It's a huge concern... (we've) still got to get in there and try to get them out." Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Richard Carlyon said the heavy rain would continue through the night.
I don't have a plan per se but I think tempering profit interests (i.e. GREED) with PROPER safety regulations (it's not a 4 letter word!) might be a good place to start.
“They might have been staying at the campground for the weekend, but when it was time for them to leave they couldn’t get out,” Collins said. Farther south, four people were rescued from the roof of an SUV in Thousand Oaks when they tried to ford a rain-swollen flood control channel. Meanwhile, roads into Yosemite National Park were closed Monday as a result of mud, rock slides, fallen trees and heavy snow. Park officials said power was out across Yosemite Valley and several hundred visitors were being evacuated, although campers at six sites and 150 guests of park hotels had chosen to remain. Officials said the weekend storm dropped more than 3.5 feet of snow throughout the park. Highways 41, 120 and 140 entering the park have been closed. Officials were unsure when those roads would reopen. The nasty weather was moving out of the region and flood advisories were canceled for Los Angeles County. However, the National Weather Service warned debris flows and flash flooding were still possible in some areas. A milder storm was expected to hit the state on Wednesday. Earlier, snow and ice closed Interstate 5 for more than 12 hours beginning late Sunday, forcing travelers to spend the night at motels, gas stations or along the side of the main route linking Southern and Northern California until authorities began escorting traffic through the pass. People tried the make the most of the challenging situation.
“I had 150 people. They were all over, man,” said Jesse Khalid, who worked the overnight shift at a service station in Lebec, along the 4,100-footTejon Pass. “Most of them came in my store. They started drinking coffee, partying.” The section of Interstate 5 known as the Grapevine often closes during bad weather. The storm hit first and hardest in Santa Barbara County, where a family of four, including a 6-month-old child and a dog, were rescued Sunday from a sailboat buffeted by wind and waves off East Beach. During the rescue, a Harbor Patrol boat began taking on water and needed help from a second boat. In addition, a 70-foot tugboat broke free from its anchorage and struck the sailboat, authorities reported. The downpour dumped more than 10 inches of rain in Santa Barbara County.
Is it due to budget cuts or something else I wonder?
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That doesn't sit well with me. I'm only about 60 miles from there. Tampa's even closer.
You betcha Pat, I triple-checked to make sure I hadn't clicked the wrong link or what-not... It's incredibly stupid!
#76 -
HJ, I have no clue why they would eliminate such a wide swath! LOL, as if that region is of no importance?
Can't imagine budget cuts forcing such an idiotic change...
Would be nice if Jeff would respond with any info / thoughts he has on it...
Yeah, hopefully Doc Masters can shed some light on it.
They renamed the area in the new system from carib to
wnatlatlantic. You can still look at individual images as explained here. Bad on them for not including a non flash looping option.For example http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImag es/gfs/12/gfs_atlantic_003_500_vort_ht.gif
I doubt that, Kwgirl.. we still have plenty coverage of the region from numerous sats... I dunno...
Y'all check your own NCEP/NOAA links to be sure...
Maybe just what I see on my old fast-becoming-incompatible computer?
Try this. The GFS now has a new WNATL region similar to the NAM. The full Atlantic region still exists on the menu.
Yep... and I wrote an email to 'em on that issue (even though I mentioned I rarely used the java-loop anyway on the model runs, always preferred viewing single pages for comparison)...
Anybody got a spare 1200 bucks for a new comp?
LOL...
;)
Here is the current administrations plan.
Obama Underwrites Offshore Drilling
Too bad it's not in U.S. waters.
The U.S. is going to lend billions of dollars to Brazil's state-owned oil company, Petrobras, to finance exploration of the huge offshore discovery in Brazil's Tupi oil field in the Santos Basin near Rio de Janeiro. Brazil's planning minister confirmed that White House National Security Adviser James Jones met this month with Brazilian officials to talk about the loan.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank tells us it has issued a "preliminary commitment" letter to Petrobras in the amount of $2 billion and has discussed with Brazil the possibility of increasing that amount. Ex-Im Bank says it has not decided whether the money will come in the form of a direct loan or loan guarantees. Either way, this corporate foreign aid may strike some readers as odd, given that the U.S. Treasury seems desperate for cash and Petrobras is one of the largest corporations in the Americas.
a href="Obama Underwrites Offshore Drilling Too bad it's not in U.S. waters. The U.S. is going to lend billions of dollars to Brazil's state-owned oil company, Petrobras, to finance exploration of the huge offshore discovery in Brazil's Tupi oil field in the Santos Basin near Rio de Janeiro. Brazil's planning minister confirmed that White House National Security Adviser James Jones met this month with Brazilian officials to talk about the loan. The U.S. Export-Import Bank tells us it has issued a "preliminary commitment" letter to Petrobras in the amount of $2 billion and has discussed with Brazil the possibility of increasing that amount. Ex-Im Bank says it has not decided whether the money will come in the form of a direct loan or loan guarantees. Either way, this corporate foreign aid may strike some readers as odd, given that the U.S. Treasury seems desperate for cash and Petrobras is one of the largest corporations in the Americas.
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I guess we get the good jobs later:
Obama's green jobs revolution
Democrat will lead effort to curb world's dependence on oil; Plans to create five million new posts in clean energy projects
By Geoffrey Lean in San Francisco and Leonard Doyle in Washington
Barack Obama is promising a $150bn "Apollo project" to bring jobs and energy security to the US through a new alternative energy economy, if his final push for votes brings victory in the presidential election on Tuesday.
"That's going to be my number one priority when I get into office," Mr Obama has said of his "green recovery" plans. Making his arguments in a radio address yesterday, the Democratic favourite promised: "If you give me your vote on Tuesday, we won't just win this election. Together, we will change this country and change the world."
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Also they have postponed taking off the origional site to beyond April 5th. No new date yet.
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Check your facts bro http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/braziloil. asp
Disproved bunkum.
Beat ya to it Neo!
Darn those pesky facts! They get in the way SO much!
I built this ship - it is my making
And furthermore my self control I can't rely on anymore"...
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Nrt, perhaps they will reconsider the changes planned... as I wrote 'em in the email, they could skip the looping feature altogether, just offer simple single page access to hourly projections...
And mentioned at least the SSD tropical sat page still allowed the java looping, even if was "unsupported"... LOL, who knows how long THAT option will continue, but up till now has worked fine, although not the CONUS view offerings...
WTH, sooner or later this 8 1/2 year old Mac will croak, forcing me to upgrade...
;)
Thanks guys,
Heading out as work calls...
Talking Heads
Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don't do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
Facts are nothing on the face of things
Facts don't stain the furniture
Facts go out and slam the door
Facts are written all over your face
Facts continue to change their shape
Nope. Where is your energy plan genius? You don't have one either. Probably because you don't care. I care but I do not have the resources to change our energy portfolio. The people that do are on the wrong side of the energy debate, unfortunately. What I said was true and if it offends you then you have some sort of ideological issues you need to work through.
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