Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Failure of Glory satellite a major loss for climate change science
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:47 GMT le 30 Mars 2011 +5
As the Taurus XL rocket boosting the $424 million Glory climate change research satellite roared off the launch pad from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base just after 2am PDT on March 4, NASA scientists and engineers from the rocket's maker, Orbital Sciences Corporation, were optimistic. A similar Taurus XL rocket failed in February 2009, resulting in the loss of the $273 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory, which was designed to preform high-resolution measurements of emissions of carbon dioxide from Earth. The rocket's fairing, a nose cone designed to shield satellites as it traveled through Earth's atmosphere did not separate properly, dooming the Orbiting Carbon Observatory to a spot at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. Engineers redesigned the rocket, which did several successful launches over the past two years. But the rocket failed again for Glory's launch, and now the satellite lies useless beneath the South Pacific Ocean.


Figure 1. Climate responds to changes in the sun's radiation, dust (aerosol) particles, reflectivity of the surface (albedo) due to changes in land use, and concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halocarbons. Changes in any of these quantities are called "forcings", and can force the climate to be warmer (red bars) or cooler (blue bars.) The word "radiative" arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation (heat) within Earth's atmosphere. Since 1750, the changes in radiative forcing as estimated by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that human activities, primarily due to increases in CO2 and other heat-trapping gases, have forced the climate to a warmer state. This forcing is equivalent to 1.6 watts per square meter of extra energy arriving everywhere on Earth's surface. However, there is a large uncertainty (LOSU = Level Of Scientific Understanding) on how much particles in the atmosphere (aerosols) affect Earth's climate. The uncertainty bars for the direct effect of particles in the atmosphere (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are very large compared to the uncertainty bars for other forcings.

The loss of the Glory satellite is a particularly bitter blow, since the satellite was designed to study the greatest unknown in climate change science--the emissions, composition, and distribution of dust particles in the atmosphere. Particles in the atmosphere (called aerosols by scientists) come from a variety of human-caused and natural sources. Black soot from fires can act to warm the climate, particularly if these black particles fall on ice and snow. However, most particles emitted into the atmosphere reflect sunlight back into space, and thus cool the climate. As seen in Figure 1, both the direct effects of dust particles (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are poorly known. It was hoped that data from the Glory satellite could significantly reduce these uncertainties. There is no replacement mission for Glory scheduled, and Congress' current budget-cutting appetite makes it unlikely a replacement satellite will be funded anytime soon. A replacement mission for the failed Orbital Carbon Observatory is scheduled for February 2013, but that mission may be delayed, since is it being launched by the same type of rocket that failed in Glory's launch.

As Gavin Schmidt notes in a post over at realclimate.org on Glory's demise, working from space is hard, expensive, and risky. Rocket failures resulting in the loss of hugely expensive satellites are not uncommon, and it takes years to procure funding and build new satellites. But, there is no substitute for satellites; the global coverage and detail of data they provide cannot be matched by surface- or aircraft-based observations. We must continue to hurl them into space, or risk plotting our course blindly into the future with only a fuzzy idea of how our planet is changing.

I'll be back on Friday with an April Fool's Day post.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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451. Grothar 04:11 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah this is beginning to look like a pattern of stormy weather in the dry season developing for Florida!


Told ya so, I told ya so! LOL How you doing Jedmeister?
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
452. Grothar 04:12 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Anyone having trouble with the blog again? I found the problem.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
453. Jedkins01 04:13 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:


Best thing that could happen is an all nite rain. This won't allow the Atmosphere to become Unstable. If the sun does not shine tomorrow, hopefully things won't be as bad as thought.


For sure, the local MET's were discussing the crucial difference between whether we get severe weather or not tomorrow will depend on if we get heating tomorrow.

Personally I believe we will get some heating, but I don't believe it will be maximized heating. This MCS in the gulf is progressing eastward, once it does the skies will become clear. I just don't see it raining all night. I do believe we will likely see at least some sun tomorrow before clouds fill back in, either in the low level flow from warm moist air feeding into the squall line, or from high clouds blowing off the storm tops. I don't believe we will get maximized heating. But I think it will be enough for a at least a few severe storms. It could possibly be worse. But I'm training to become a real meteorologist. Not a doom caster lol
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454. stillwaiting 04:15 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
TEPCO head in hospital over stress

The president of Fukushima plant’s utility company was hospitalised, as setbacks accumulated in Japan’s nuclear crisis on Wednesday. Masataka Shimizu, president of Tokyo Electric Power Co, has not been seen for nearly two weeks after appearing at a Tokyo news meet two days after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that hobbled the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant’s cooling systems. Shimizu, 66, was taken Tuesday to a Tokyo hospital after suffering dizziness and high blood pressure, a TEPCO spokesman said.


################################################




REally?

How bout He,the V. P. and all the TEPCO execs spend a few days and nights on scene working on site with the workers in their conditions?

.....iwas thinking the exact same thing when i heard it,poooor ceo and his stress,imagine how the workers families feel....on a wx note had a heavy squall come thru about 10pm,pickd up about 1.25,the rain was torrential,imo tomorrowsset up for severe wx over fl will be the worst in 2 or 3 yrs,might even be epic...no pain,no pain,lol
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455. TampaSpin 04:16 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
Anyone having trouble with the blog again? I found the problem.


An old Jedi like you knows and can fix everything!
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747
456. Jedkins01 04:18 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


Told ya so, I told ya so! LOL How you doing Jedmeister?


hahaha

I'm doing great! Lighting frying the power lines only about 1000 yards from work and sending arcs flying from the wires was sure exciting and a bit scary haha. The power was gone around this area including my house for a couple hours, it has been restored.

Considering the massive arcing from the wires into the ground and the fact that several crews of linemen were all working on different areas of power lines simultaneously on my way back from work suggests some of the massive power from that lightning strike traveled into the wires and overloaded them. There was also a warning alarm at work telling me one of the phases was gone in the building, meaning way too much power tried to enter and messed things up. I'm a janitor for an electric company so they have all kinds of electronics that tell you whats happening withe power system. It told me a huge surge of power fried 1/3 of all power in the building.
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457. Grothar 04:24 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:


An old Jedi like you knows and can fix everything!


Ever since I came over from the Dark Side, things have been amazing.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19527
458. Skyepony (Mod) 04:24 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Saw 130,000 in CFL still without power. It was so warm, 91º was my high. Got windy. Lots little vorticity played, saw dust devils were I've never seen them. Almost had a tarp get away. Trees in houses all over the news, trapping & scrapped people. Most trees were diseased, old, huge ones. That whole Iron Horse fire area was worked. The people in that camper at Mims KOA walking away was unreal. Some tattooed kid on Hog Valley Rd going off about riding in his trailer as it bounced on the foundation. A little plane flipped at OIA, roofs blown off houses, hail & that flipped Target tractor trailer driver on the news was all bloody. Storm reports for ECFL.
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459. Grothar 04:26 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:


hahaha

I'm doing great! Lighting frying the power lines only about 1000 yards from work and sending arcs flying from the wires was sure exciting and a bit scary haha. The power was gone around this area including my house for a couple hours, it has been restored.

Considering the massive arcing from the wires into the ground and the fact that several crews of linemen were all working on different areas of power lines simultaneously on my way back from work suggests some of the massive power from that lightning strike traveled into the wires and overloaded them. There was also a warning alarm at work telling me one of the phases was gone in the building, meaning way too much power tried to enter and messed things up. I'm a janitor for an electric company so they have all kinds of electronics that tell you whats happening withe power system. It told me a huge surge of power fried 1/3 of all power in the building.


That is a scary thing. I hate lightning. Guess I live in the wrong state. How bad were the storms by you? Looked pretty bad on the radar. We had those bad ones the other day, but got up to 92 here in Ft. Lauderdale.
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460. Skyepony (Mod) 04:36 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
I've got a few stalks of corn down. Nothing that can't get stood back up. I think I'll wait til it's over. Pretty windy out still. Round three tomorrow, maybe worse than today.

Check out the Meso Low..1004mb

Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29312
461. TomTaylor 04:38 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


That is a scary thing. I hate lightning. Guess I live in the wrong state. How bad were the storms by you? Looked pretty bad on the radar. We had those bad ones the other day, but got up to 92 here in Ft. Lauderdale.

Come move out to San Diego then!

We get thunderstorms about once or twice a year here.

PRETTY LAME. That's San Diego for ya, the capital of no weather.
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462. Jedkins01 04:38 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


That is a scary thing. I hate lightning. Guess I live in the wrong state. How bad were the storms by you? Looked pretty bad on the radar. We had those bad ones the other day, but got up to 92 here in Ft. Lauderdale.


You hate lightning? That's too bad! I actually love lighting and fear it at the same time, kinda like tornadoes and hurricanes. I want them, but at the same time, I don't want them haha. Lighting is just an awesome thing, severe weather and general makes me tick like nothing else can. I don't think finding my future wife could give me the feeling I get from crazy storms and severe weather. Yeah I'm a weather geek that's for sure haha.


But yeah, that second area of storms that got us in the bay area wasn't as bad as it looked, but they did produce intense rain and plenty of lighting. The squall line that fell apart as it came through here earlier stabilized the air and left a cold pool behind. So those thunderstorms were strong when they came through but they didn't produce very much wind at all because of the cooler stable air at the surface. They were over-running cells which have more bark on radar then bite in actual surface effects.


We did get massive power failure from intense lighting, so that qualifies as severe too though, so I guess we had our share!
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463. Jedkins01 04:39 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Skyepony:
I've got a few stalks of corn down. Nothing that can't get stood back up. I think I'll wait til it's over. Pretty windy out still. Round three tomorrow, maybe worse than today.

Check out the Meso Low..1004mb



Yeah I figured a meso low popped up... We have strong and gusty South West winds and the pressure dropped a lot briefly now is rising again.
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464. TomTaylor 04:39 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:


You hate lightning? That's too bad! I actually love lighting and fear it at the same time, kinda like tornadoes and hurricanes. I want them, but at the same time, I don't want them haha. Lighting is just an awesome thing, severe weather and general makes me tick like nothing else can. I don't think finding my future wife could give me the feeling I get from crazy storms and severe weather. Yeah I'm a weather geek that's for sure haha.

Totally agree. Something about it is just awesome. I love watching it...as long as I am in a fairly safe location
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465. Jedkins01 04:46 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting TomTaylor:

Totally agree. Something about it is just awesome. I love watching it...as long as I am in a fairly safe location


Yeah it is amazing, and living in Northern Pinellas County, on average we and the rest of West Central Florida is the bulls eye for lightning. One thing I noticed that sets lightning apart in Florida from any other areas is the astoundingly powerful cloud to ground lighting we get here and the amount we get. Sometimes it feels like it splits the earth open its so powerful!

Its kinds like the difference between tornado alley and Florida when it comes to tornadoes. Yeah Florida gets a lot of them, but most of them don't compare to tornadoes in the Southern Plains.

I experienced a squall line in the summer time in Michigan that had lots of severe warnings with it. The lighting was mostly all could to cloud, only occasional cloud to ground strikes and they were weak and lame compared to here. The winds and hail was impressive, but the rain wasn't a big deal at all compared to how it can rain in severe storms in Central Florida. Yet it still caused more flooding then it ever does here, haha
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466. TomTaylor 04:56 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it is amazing, and living in Northern Pinellas County, on average we and the rest of West Central Florida is the bulls eye for lightning. One thing I noticed that sets lightning apart in Florida from any other areas is the astoundingly powerful cloud to ground lighting we get here and the amount we get. Sometimes it feels like it splits the earth open its so powerful!

Its kinds like the difference between tornado alley and Florida when it comes to tornadoes. Yeah Florida gets a lot of them, but most of them don't compare to tornadoes in the Southern Plains.

I experienced a squall line in the summer time in Michigan that had lots of severe warnings with it. The lighting was mostly all could to cloud, only occasional cloud to ground strikes and they were weak and lame compared to here. The winds and hail was impressive, but the rain wasn't a big deal at all compared to how it can rain in severe storms in Central Florida. Yet it still caused more flooding then it ever does here, haha
Lucky. Living in San Diego, as I said, we get about one thunderstorm a year. Maybe two or three on a good year. And even those thunderstorms are weak compared to what the south or the plains experience.
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467. Jedkins01 05:11 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting TomTaylor:
Lucky. Living in San Diego, as I said, we get about one thunderstorm a year. Maybe two or three on a good year. And even those thunderstorms are weak compared to what the south or the plains experience.


Ohh man I would absolutely hate living in San Diego! Man that sucks for you! The California Coast is the most undesirable place to live in by far too me. I'd rather live up North than the California Coast, at least they get more rain and thunderstorms, as well as some interesting winter weather events.
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469. emcf30 05:47 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
How is every one tonight.  Just got to sleep then the weather box went off. It was only Special Marine Warning. Now I got no less than 10 progress energy trucks doing their thing replacing a couple of poles and a lot of power lines that went down this afternoon down my street here in O-Town. Just got used the the sound of generators humming. ( having flashbacks of 2004 ). It is going to be awhile before the whole area is restored. They said they are working to have the neighborhood up by sunup. Crazy what a couple of minutes of wind wil do.
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470. Jedkins01 06:11 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting RastaSteve:


Hi Jed, storms are firing quickly deep in the C Gulf. long day ahead it looks like.


Hey man, it sure does, hope you didn't suffer too much damage over there.

Tomorrow is gonna be a big day, still more heavy showers headed at me tonight, had close to an inch so far.
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471. TomTaylor 06:30 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ohh man I would absolutely hate living in San Diego! Man that sucks for you! The California Coast is the most undesirable place to live in by far too me. I'd rather live up North than the California Coast, at least they get more rain and thunderstorms, as well as some interesting winter weather events.

Haha you have no idea. Over here when it rains over an inch, it's the top news story on all the local news channels. I suppose that's why extreme and violent weather fascinates me so much, since I never get to experience it over here.

And yea, if you're a weather enthusiast s California and the rest of the california coast are just about the most boring locations on earth. On the other hand, if your a fan of mild year round weather, you're in luck...

Personally, my favorite climate is tropical. Nothing compares to year round warmth, warm ocean temps, thunderstorms and the humid climate in my book. I'm not a fan of cold or dry weather.
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472. HadesGodWyvern 06:37 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20102011
10:00 AM RET March 31 2011
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 8 (1005 hPa) located at 7.4S 89.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/W0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 07.4S 89.6E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 08.1S 90.0E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 09.2S/90.7E - 15 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=========================

System keeps on undergoing a moderate upper level easterly vertical wind shear and low level vortex is totally exposed in the northeast of the main deep convective activity. System keeps on drifting northeastward since 06.00z/30th of March. Environmental conditions are not expected to improve for the next 3 days. neither low levels, nor upper levels.

LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION.
Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686
473. FMTXWMAN 07:09 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Interesting that two important satellites for climate research launched years apart both fail. I hate to say it, but this stinks of sabotage.
Member Since: 1 mai 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 66
474. greentortuloni 07:35 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Maybe there is a (another?) silver lining in the Japanese tragedy: given Japan's cultural awareness of nature, maybe they will do renewables full speed ahead.

It would really be nice to have a country with Japan's fiscal and technological prowess decide that they will be 100% renewable. No fighting over pork barrel coal/big oil funding, no whining from the Oil Tories, no selling votes or fear of PhD students using grant money to buy guns and force everyone to wear bell bottoms, just clean quiet force of will over stupidity.

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475. Chicklit 10:13 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Good morning, up early to see how to plan my day.
Looks like the drive to Sanford this afternoon (ENE of Orlando) should be postponed.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
601 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-311700-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
601 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING AND
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE FLORIDA GULF COAST NORTH OF TAMPA EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN OVERSPREAD EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE ACTUALLY
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS AGAIN DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
TORNADOES. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST AT
50 TO 60 MPH.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES WHICH MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST
AT 50 TO 60 MPH...AND PUSH RAPIDLY OFFSHORE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 KNOTS.

BOATERS ON INLAND LAKES SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT AS STORMS APPROACH
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY
DEVELOP OVER LAKES DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. BE
PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL BEFORE A STORM REACHES YOUR AREA.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS AS STORMS MOVE
OFF THE MAINLAND AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.
$$

KELLY


Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
478. Chicklit 10:18 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
da bomb
Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
479. islander101010 10:19 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
yesterdays thunderstorms were strong but here the severe storms only lasted 10 minutes or so nature trimmed the trees alittle getting ready for hurricane season
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2967
481. IKE 10:23 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    

Quoting RastaSteve:
Roofs blown off houses by my friends house in College Park. To think IKE and everyone else was talking crap yeasterday while people are losing power getting some very heavy damage in areas. Jokes on you guys now!
Yeah....the jokes on me, isn't it jeff9641? Bad weather is part of life. Get use to it.
Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
482. Chicklit 10:23 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
nado spotted:

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southwestern Hernando County in Florida.
Pasco County in Florida.

* Until 700 am EDT

* at 605 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
tornado 25 miles west of Port Richey... or 25 miles west of Tarpon
Springs... moving east at 60 mph.
* The tornado will be near...
Hudson.
Moon Lake Estates.
Spring Hill.
Masaryktown.
Wesley Chapel.
San Antonio.

This includes Interstate 75 between exits 279 and 285.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

If you are in the path of the tornado go to a small interior room in
a strong and well constructed building. Cars and Mobile homes are not
safe. If no shelter is available... lie flat in a ditch or culvert and
cover your head with your hands.

To report severe weather to the National Weather Service please call
813-645-2323.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 PM EDT Thursday afternoon
for western Florida.


Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
483. Chicklit 10:26 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
I have a feeling we're going to see a lot of warnings like this today:

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northern Hillsborough County in Florida.
Southern Pasco County in Florida.
Northern Pinellas County in Florida.

* Until 715 am EDT

* at 619 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing quarter size hail... and
destructive winds in excess of 70 mph. This storm was located 12
miles west of Tarpon Springs... and moving east at 55 mph.

* The severe thunderstorm will be near...
Dunedin.
Tarpon Springs.
Oldsmar.
Odessa.
Carrollwood.
Lutz.

This includes Interstate 275 between exits 49 and 53.

Member Since: 11 juillet 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
485. reedzone 11:06 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
It seems like anybody north of Orlando, like me, will be safe from the severe weather. The squall line looks to be dangerous from Orlando/Tampa, southward.
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
486. reedzone 11:10 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    


The SPC hasn't woken up yet ;)
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
487. emcf30 11:19 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    

Severe Thunderstorm WarningSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC069-095-117-127-311200-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0010.110331T1104Z-110331T1200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
704 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

* AT 702 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEESBURG...AND MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...EUSTIS...ZELLWOOD...SANFORD AND DELAND.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
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488. reedzone 11:29 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Quoting reedzone:


The SPC hasn't woken up yet ;)


SPC was very late in showing the watch
Member Since: 1 juillet 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247
489. beell 11:40 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
SPC was awake while we slept.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2011

...FL...
THE DECAYING CNTRL FL MCS EARLY TODAY WILL PROVIDE CHALLENGES TO THE
SVR FORECAST. TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING AROUND DAYBREAK AS
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS N FL
AND SRN GA. INSTABILITY FEED WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED AND LIMITED
TO THE FLOW OFF THE NERN GULF...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
STORMS. STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL TURNING WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL /DAMAGING WINDS OR
BRIEF TORNADO/...ALTHOUGH TEMPERED INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT.

POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE EVENT WILL LIKELY UNFOLD FARTHER S IN
CNTRL/SRN FL FROM MID-MORNING INTO TONIGHT...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN MATERIALIZE. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST EARLY
MORNING MCS IS WEAKENING AND EXPECT 70S DEW POINTS WILL SURGE BACK
INTO CNTRL FL LATER THIS MORNING. DIABATIC HEATING...MODEST H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
INCREASING STORMS ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH 50-60 KTS
OF H85-H5 FLOW. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN THRIVE ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY MAY BOOST TORNADO RISKS. OTHERWISE...
SMALL-SCALE BOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO BANDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
ROTATING STORMS WHILE MOVING ACROSS SRN FL AND THE KEYS TONIGHT WITH
A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST DAMAGING WINDS.
Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12875
490. Dodabear 11:44 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
743 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSMOOR...MIMS...HAULOVER CANAL...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...SANFORD...OVIEDO...
LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...GENEVA...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILL...OSTEEN...MAYTOWN...LAKE
MONROE...EDGEWATER...DELTONA...
Member Since: 28 juillet 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 2234
491. GeoffreyWPB 11:45 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Miami NWS Discussion

...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 1 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE GLADES, HENDRY, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE ADJACENT WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST NAM
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF MAY IMPACT THESE AREAS AS
SOON AS MID TO LATE MORNING. RAPID HEATING AFTER SUNRISE AND
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. UPDATED PRODUCTS BEING TRANSMITTED.

Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9122
494. Patrap 11:52 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Japan nuclear crisis: evacuees turned away from shelters


Hundreds of people evacuated from towns and villages close to the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant are being turned away by medical institutions and emergency shelters as fears of radioactive contagion catch on.

By Julian Ryall, in Tokyo 3:54PM BST 30 Mar 2011

Hospitals and temporary refuges are demanding that evacuees provide them with certificates confirming that they have not been exposed to radiation before they are admitted.

The situation at the plant remains critical, with the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency yesterday that radioactive iodine-131 at more than 3,350 times permitted levels has been found in a sample of seawater taken from near the facility.

The water is the most highly contaminated sample taken from the sea and indicates that radiation from the core of one or more of the reactors, where fuel rods have partly melted, is leaking into the Pacific Ocean.

A spokesman for the agency said the radioactivity poses no immediate threat to human health because fishing has been banned close to the plant and iodine will have been "significantly diluted" before it comes into contact with marine species and then enters the food chain for humans.

The eight-year-old daughter of Takayuki Okamura was refused treatment for a skin rash by a clinic in Fukushima City, where the family is living in a shelter after abandoning their home in Minamisoma, 18 miles from the crippled nuclear plant.

"Just being forced to live in a shelter causes us anxiety," Mr Okamura, 49, said. "The institution's refusal to treat my daughter came as a great shock to us."

Medical experts have condemned those that are meant to be assisting the evacuees for turning them away. "This is a knee-jerk reaction based on the fear that these people are going to harm you," said Dr. Robert Gale, a haematologist at Imperial College, London, who is advising the Japanese government on health issues.

"If someone has been contaminated externally, such as on their shoes or clothes, then precautions can be taken, such as by removing those garments to stop the contamination from getting into a hospital," he told The Daily Telegraph. "That is very easy to do, but unfortunately I'm not surprised this sort of thing is happening."

Prejudice against people who used to live near the plant is reminiscent of the ostracism that survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 experienced. Many suffered discrimination when they tried to rent housing, find employment or marriage partners.

More than 65 years ago, Dr. Gale points out, far less was known about the effects of radiation on the human body and that it is "completely irrational" to turn evacuees away today.

Masataka Shimizu, the president of Tokyo Electric Power Co., has been admitted to a hospital to be treated for hypertension and dizziness. Shimizu had previously taken several days off after being taken ill as he oversaw efforts to bring the crisis at the nuclear plant under control.

Tsunehisa Katsumata, the TEPCO chairman, said that Shimizu would return to work soon and again take the lead in dealing with the crisis.

"We apologise for causing the public anxiety, worry and trouble due to the explosions at reactor buildings and the release of radioactive materials," Katsumata added.

There are also growing concerns about thousands of gallons of radioactive water that have collected in concrete trenches beneath the reactors. The water was sprayed on the reactors in the early days of the crisis in an effort to keep them cool, but now poses a serious hazard to the emergency crews given the task of bringing the plant back under control.

With experienced engineers close to exhaustion after working around the clock, TEPCO is reportedly offering up to Y400,000 (£2,995) per day for anyone willing to brave the rigours of the plant – with the employees now being described in the media here as modern-day samurai or "suicide squads."

The government announced that it will upgrade safety standards for nuclear power plants, a tacit admission that previous standards were inadequate, while Yukio Edano, the chief cabinet secretary, told a press conference that no estimates were being made on when the crisis might be under control.

The United States has confirmed that it plans to send robots to the stricken reactor. The robots will work in areas considered too dangerous for human emergency repair teams to operate in.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is also due to arrive in Tokyo on Thursday to express his solidarity with Japan as it struggles to cope with the world's worst nuclear crisis for more than a quarter of a century.




Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
495. hcubed 11:56 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
.
Member Since: 18 mai 2007 Posts: 286 Comments: 1639
497. Jax82 12:01 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
Rain, Wind, OMG! ;)

Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
498. Patrap 12:03 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    


Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111403
499. islander101010 12:05 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
floridians hype this hype that just some needed rain maybe a twister or two but figure this you got a twister 100yrds wide it touches down for a second or two okay but you got 300 miles of shoreline. maybe some isolated damage. drought buster thankfully. save the hype for cape verde season http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjSLJmv5uiQ alittle almond brothers doing a band song
Member Since: 11 septembre 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2967
500. caneswatch 12:05 GMT le 31 Mars 2011    
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 80
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
600 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011

TORNADO WATCH 80 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-015-017-027-035-043-049-051-053-055-057-06 1-069-071-075-
081-083-085-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-1 15-117-119-127-
311700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0080.110331T1000Z-110331T1700Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
DESOTO FLAGLER GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER
LAKE LEE LEVY
MANATEE MARION MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK PUTNAM SARASOTA
SEMINOLE ST. LUCIE SUMTER
VOLUSIA
$$
Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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