Failure of Glory satellite a major loss for climate change science
As the Taurus XL rocket boosting the $424 million Glory climate change research satellite roared off the launch pad from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base just after 2am PDT on March 4, NASA scientists and engineers from the rocket's maker, Orbital Sciences Corporation, were optimistic. A similar Taurus XL rocket failed in February 2009, resulting in the loss of the $273 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory, which was designed to preform high-resolution measurements of emissions of carbon dioxide from Earth. The rocket's fairing, a nose cone designed to shield satellites as it traveled through Earth's atmosphere did not separate properly, dooming the Orbiting Carbon Observatory to a spot at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. Engineers redesigned the rocket, which did several successful launches over the past two years. But the rocket failed again for Glory's launch, and now the satellite lies useless beneath the South Pacific Ocean.
Figure 1. Climate responds to changes in the sun's radiation, dust (aerosol) particles, reflectivity of the surface (albedo) due to changes in land use, and concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halocarbons. Changes in any of these quantities are called "forcings", and can force the climate to be warmer (red bars) or cooler (blue bars.) The word "radiative" arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation (heat) within Earth's atmosphere. Since 1750, the changes in radiative forcing as estimated by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that human activities, primarily due to increases in CO2 and other heat-trapping gases, have forced the climate to a warmer state. This forcing is equivalent to 1.6 watts per square meter of extra energy arriving everywhere on Earth's surface. However, there is a large uncertainty (LOSU = Level Of Scientific Understanding) on how much particles in the atmosphere (aerosols) affect Earth's climate. The uncertainty bars for the direct effect of particles in the atmosphere (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are very large compared to the uncertainty bars for other forcings.
The loss of the Glory satellite is a particularly bitter blow, since the satellite was designed to study the greatest unknown in climate change science--the emissions, composition, and distribution of dust particles in the atmosphere. Particles in the atmosphere (called aerosols by scientists) come from a variety of human-caused and natural sources. Black soot from fires can act to warm the climate, particularly if these black particles fall on ice and snow. However, most particles emitted into the atmosphere reflect sunlight back into space, and thus cool the climate. As seen in Figure 1, both the direct effects of dust particles (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are poorly known. It was hoped that data from the Glory satellite could significantly reduce these uncertainties. There is no replacement mission for Glory scheduled, and Congress' current budget-cutting appetite makes it unlikely a replacement satellite will be funded anytime soon. A replacement mission for the failed Orbital Carbon Observatory is scheduled for February 2013, but that mission may be delayed, since is it being launched by the same type of rocket that failed in Glory's launch.
As Gavin Schmidt notes in a post over at realclimate.org on Glory's demise, working from space is hard, expensive, and risky. Rocket failures resulting in the loss of hugely expensive satellites are not uncommon, and it takes years to procure funding and build new satellites. But, there is no substitute for satellites; the global coverage and detail of data they provide cannot be matched by surface- or aircraft-based observations. We must continue to hurl them into space, or risk plotting our course blindly into the future with only a fuzzy idea of how our planet is changing.
I'll be back on Friday with an April Fool's Day post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Be safe! The tornado cell is heading towards Orlando, and will cross over I-4 in the next 20 minutes.
03/30/2011 M63 MPH LAKE FL PARK/FOREST SRVC
POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN IN OCALA NATIONAL FOREST.
HELICOPTER PIVOTED ON ITS PAD.
Yikes. It's looking like the watch down here is gonna be extended.
You're talking about the one almost due west from Tampa, with the 42k top?
One thing I've noticed about today's storms is that they are much "taller" than the ones yesterday. The ones yesterday had echo tops around 26k-30k. Today's storms are generally between 35k and 43k.
This is some serious thunderstorm activity, and tornado areas should be on watch, but it's nothing to freak out over.
That being said, I return to lurking.
I don't think anyone ever said these are "ordinary storms". What many are taking issue with is the comparison between these storms and hurricanes.
;-)
Okay, just kidding. Seriously, though, while you should watch the radar, watch the skies, listen to NOAA, and always be cautious when severe weather threatens, there's no need to panic or overstate the situation. At worst, you can cause unnecessary worry and confusion; at best you may lose all credibility. Just sayin'...
WTI Crude Oil
$106.54 ▲2.27
+1 to Nea.
I think oil prices are spiking because it is a day that ends in "y". I work in the oil industry, as do several of my friends, and all of believe that the price of oil has nothing to do with supply or demand, but rather has everything to do with emotion, speculators, and unmitigated greed.
Anyone selling a bicycle?
Heh. In hurricane season, the complaints just get drowned out in the idiot-spam.
This time of year, they actually get read.
Yeah, and it will hit our economy soon if it keeps going up. I put $30 in my tank yesterday and got 8 gallons, or a half a tank. Sweet.
Extended as in area or extended as in time? Please be specific.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
944 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN CITRUS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
HERNANDO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT
* AT 941 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR WEEKI WACHEE...OR NEAR SPRING HILL...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WEEKI WACHEE.
BROOKSVILLE.
BUSHNELL.
Mostly time, probably. Might need flood watches if these storms continue to train across the same area.
LOL Nea
+1 for you.
Time. Happy, you fool LOL?
Yes, now I can breathe a sigh of relief. LOL I thought I was going to have to put the shutters up and move my patio furntiture in.
You can wait another few months to do that if (In)Accuweather is going to be correct.
Link
It is lightning filmed at ultra high speed (12,000 frames per second). Truly amazing.
EDIT: Nevermind, fizzled out. We (Pinellas Co. around Indian Rocks/ Madiera) are still under warning, though.
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1037 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAVARES...MOUNT PLYMOUTH...MOUNT
DORA...MASCOTTE...LISBON...LEESBURG...EUSTIS...CA SSIA...
NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ZELLWOOD...WINTER PARK...WINTER
GARDEN...PINE HILLS...OCOEE...MAITLAND...LOCKHART...LAKE
APOPKA...
SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER SPRINGS...WEKIVA SPRINGS...
SANFORD...OVIEDO...LONGWOOD...LAKE MARY...LAKE JESSUP...
WESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OSTEEN...ORANGE CITY...LAKE MONROE...
LAKE HELEN...DELTONA...DE LAND...DELAND...
* UNTIL 1130 AM EDT.
* AT 1031 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES WEST OF
HOWEY IN THE HILLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AY ER...JAFFREY... KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE 413 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES...NORTH CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH AND CHESHIRE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE AS UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BE SLIPPERY WITH POOR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SNOW COULD ALSO BE WET AND HEAVY...PRESENTING PROBLEMS FOR TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES...AS WELL AS SNOW REMOVAL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED SURFACES.
Where's the heat?
Link
Sorry but over 70 reports of severe weather in Florida alone is not common AT ALL. This was not over hyped, this was a very dangerous day and will be remembered by many as the worst outbreak of severe weather in years.
Been watching that cell, nrt.
It means business. Be careful anyone in it's path.
Further North would mean more rain as it runs the length of the state?
Boy this has turned out to be quite an active 2 days. I'm under a Tornado Warning (in Lake Apopka) so keeping a close eye to the WX outside. For now the storm has lost most of its punch, but still dangerous.
Severe thunderstorm warning, tornado watch, etc.
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