Failure of Glory satellite a major loss for climate change science
As the Taurus XL rocket boosting the $424 million Glory climate change research satellite roared off the launch pad from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base just after 2am PDT on March 4, NASA scientists and engineers from the rocket's maker, Orbital Sciences Corporation, were optimistic. A similar Taurus XL rocket failed in February 2009, resulting in the loss of the $273 million Orbiting Carbon Observatory, which was designed to preform high-resolution measurements of emissions of carbon dioxide from Earth. The rocket's fairing, a nose cone designed to shield satellites as it traveled through Earth's atmosphere did not separate properly, dooming the Orbiting Carbon Observatory to a spot at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. Engineers redesigned the rocket, which did several successful launches over the past two years. But the rocket failed again for Glory's launch, and now the satellite lies useless beneath the South Pacific Ocean.
Figure 1. Climate responds to changes in the sun's radiation, dust (aerosol) particles, reflectivity of the surface (albedo) due to changes in land use, and concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halocarbons. Changes in any of these quantities are called "forcings", and can force the climate to be warmer (red bars) or cooler (blue bars.) The word "radiative" arises because these factors change the balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation (heat) within Earth's atmosphere. Since 1750, the changes in radiative forcing as estimated by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that human activities, primarily due to increases in CO2 and other heat-trapping gases, have forced the climate to a warmer state. This forcing is equivalent to 1.6 watts per square meter of extra energy arriving everywhere on Earth's surface. However, there is a large uncertainty (LOSU = Level Of Scientific Understanding) on how much particles in the atmosphere (aerosols) affect Earth's climate. The uncertainty bars for the direct effect of particles in the atmosphere (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are very large compared to the uncertainty bars for other forcings.
The loss of the Glory satellite is a particularly bitter blow, since the satellite was designed to study the greatest unknown in climate change science--the emissions, composition, and distribution of dust particles in the atmosphere. Particles in the atmosphere (called aerosols by scientists) come from a variety of human-caused and natural sources. Black soot from fires can act to warm the climate, particularly if these black particles fall on ice and snow. However, most particles emitted into the atmosphere reflect sunlight back into space, and thus cool the climate. As seen in Figure 1, both the direct effects of dust particles (where they scatter away more sunlight) and the indirect effects (where they increase the amount of sunlight-reflecting clouds, by acting as nuclei that cloud drops can form around) are poorly known. It was hoped that data from the Glory satellite could significantly reduce these uncertainties. There is no replacement mission for Glory scheduled, and Congress' current budget-cutting appetite makes it unlikely a replacement satellite will be funded anytime soon. A replacement mission for the failed Orbital Carbon Observatory is scheduled for February 2013, but that mission may be delayed, since is it being launched by the same type of rocket that failed in Glory's launch.
As Gavin Schmidt notes in a post over at realclimate.org on Glory's demise, working from space is hard, expensive, and risky. Rocket failures resulting in the loss of hugely expensive satellites are not uncommon, and it takes years to procure funding and build new satellites. But, there is no substitute for satellites; the global coverage and detail of data they provide cannot be matched by surface- or aircraft-based observations. We must continue to hurl them into space, or risk plotting our course blindly into the future with only a fuzzy idea of how our planet is changing.
I'll be back on Friday with an April Fool's Day post.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Looks like crashing waves, except of clouds.
Tor warned cell at Tampa.
Don't know exactly where you are, Rays. Be careful. The severe should move south some pretty soon.
Ok, I'm an hour late for work. That's it from me, Florida.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1151 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
* AT 1148 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR BLOOMINGDALE...OR NEAR BRANDON...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLOOMINGDALE.
WILLOW OAK.
MULBERRY.
BARTOW.
Hello pot, meet kettle.
He won't get that...
seems like the band is falling apart as it moves inland, i think that after that tornado warning expires we shouldn't see too much later on
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1151 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSMOOR...HAULOVER CANAL...
NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OAK HILL...MAYTOWN...EDGEWATER...
* UNTIL 1215 PM EDT.
* AT 1147 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MAYTOWN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BETHUNE BEACH...ELDORA...APOLLO BEACH AND INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN MILE
MARKER 227 AND 244.
Well that's true, but it's not cloudy in South Florida. Should see regeneration of storms as they head into the warm, muggy south side of the state. Could be interesting from the fact that the SPC has a 30% chance of high winds.
Thats the point. ;)
FLC057-105-311630-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0025.110331T1551Z-110331T1630Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1151 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT
* AT 1148 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR BLOOMINGDALE...OR NEAR BRANDON...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BLOOMINGDALE.
WILLOW OAK.
MULBERRY.
BARTOW.
THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE SHELTER NOW.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
&&
LAT...LON 2791 8166 2769 8183 2786 8230 2793 8225
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 279DEG 37KT 2788 8224
$$
JOHNSON
well, i'm not so sure about some serious storm regeneration. it has been overcast all day long today and the storms are not even near me yet
i expect they won't really get stronger until they're near or south of lake okeechobee
It was overcast up here all morning before the outbreak started yesterday. Even though the sun was peaking out a few times, it was cloudy, bright, and humid all day. If your temp is around 80 degrees with dew points over 70, I would be concerned. We have lots of damage in the area, something we normally pass by on.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
FLC009-127-311615-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-110331T1615Z/
VOLUSIA-BREVARD-
1207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES...
AT 1205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHILOH...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF OAK HILL...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PEA SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
&&
LAT...LON 2879 8096 2890 8088 2902 8087 2871 8067
2870 8067 2870 8069 2874 8070 2875 8073
2887 8080 2885 8081 2886 8082 2870 8072
2870 8077 2871 8075 2873 8076 2879 8084
2869 8083 2868 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 252DEG 53KT 2885 8073
$$
MOSES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
FLC105-311630-
/O.CON.KTBW.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-110331T1630Z/
POLK FL-
1207 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
POLK COUNTY...
AT 1205 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.
LOCATED NEAR MULBERRY...OR 8 MILES WEST OF BARTOW...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS ARE OBSERVING A TORNADO NEAR MULBERRY AT
1205 PM EDT.
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MULBERRY.
BARTOW.
FORT MEADE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.
&&
LAT...LON 2778 8203 2792 8199 2791 8166 2769 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 279DEG 37KT 2787 8192
$$
JOHNSON
Watching TV. Amazing pics coming in from Central Pinellas (Clw/Largo). Lot's and lots of damage. Planes blown over at the St Pete/Clw airport.
Does anyone have a chart of CAPE values for SFL?
Yep.
Since I am a bit of an optimist, I think I may have found a silver lining to these storms...
With the winds these storms are packing (50-65 mph), they will "weed out" the weakest of the trees, and cause some minor to moderate damage, so when/if the next hurricane comes, they won't be around to do significant damage with winds twice the speed.
LOL
Wow..
Insanity is preforming the same action repeatedly, and expecting a different result each time. In this case, accuweather consistently forecasts US landfalls, which doesn't always happen.
Also, statistically, if you forecast the same thing over and over and over, eventually you will be right.
And finally... their landfall forecast looks eerily similar to the historical landfall locations from the last 120 years.
I agree, if we are in for a bad season may as well clean up the infrastructure & clean out some trees ready to go.
Wow is right. That is a LOT of helicity!
I wonder how it feels to be the person in that Altima. Talk about getting a good parking spot...
True enough.
But I still cry for the Trees.
Yep. In Houston, we didn't get that natural cleanup before Ike (and the power companies were too incompetent to do it themselves), so we paid for it with week-long power outages.
No.
Going from a La Nina to a neutral year, activity is likely to be a bit above historical average. In addition, the A/B high is forecast to be slightly stronger than average, which leads to more westerly storm tracks and the warmest SSTs pushed further west. Also, a good analogue to this year's conditions is 2008, and most of us remember what happened that year.
As quoted by Mayhem of the Allstate commercials..."Shakey...shakey, shakey, shakey!"
Sorry... wanted to provide a little levity here. It was already stressful for me as my daughter lives in Brandon. She was a bit freaked.
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