Atlantic tropical disturbance 91L poses little threat
A tropical disturbance (91L) near 24N, 63W, midway between the Virgin Islands and Bermuda, is moving north-northwest at about 8 mph. The system's heavy thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but 91L has an elongated and poorly-organized circulation, thanks to a hefty 80 knots of wind shear. The storm is over waters of 25°C, and these waters will cool to 24°C by Friday as the storm continues to the north-northwest. Before 91L reaches Bermuda, steering currents will reverse and force 91L to the south-southwest on Saturday, into a region of higher wind shear. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts wind shear will drop to 50 knots over 91L by Friday, then increase again to 70 knots by Sunday. The high shear and relatively cool water temperatures will make it difficult for 91L to organize into a subtropical depression. I give 91L a 10% of becoming a subtropical depression. Climatology argues against 91L becoming the first named storm of the year; there has only been once named April storm in the Atlantic since 1851, Tropical Storm Ana of 2003. The formation of a tropical disturbance at this location this time of year is unusual, but is not necessarily a harbinger of a active season ahead.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Atlantic tropical disturbance 91L.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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LOL, thanks but not so sure about the expert stuff... just a blogger offering my opinion here...
Shhhhhhh, don't tell anybody I was here...
;)
Didn't the GFS constantly try to spin something up in that same general region last year? I remember several instances where the GFS would spin something up 7-10 days out, then it would disappear...
Oh, I'll keep quiet! I enjoy reading your blogs without having the drama that goes on in here. Oh yeah...I'm supposed to be quiet about that...LOL.
Weather is so much better with a soundtrack!
About March 13, near it's peak passed right over the Madeira Islands which recorded gusts of 38-46 mph in bands around it's center... a well organized subtropical to hybrid type low, however as it's primary hindrance was trekking over 63F-64F SST's...
Recent discussions by earthquake experts on NHK (Japan's main television network) concerning the high probability of a LARGE aftershock yet to come (magnitude8 or greater) probably ain't helping the public to sleep easier at night either.
52 Neapolitan "TEPCO plans to cut all its employees' salaries by 20%."
Which along with layoffs, turnovers&retirements, a hiring freeze, and sales of assets such as stocks&bonds and real estate will raise ~400billion yen (~$5billion) or 1/20th of the expectable property&income loss compensation claims against the company.
And TEPC0 has ZERO insurance coverage to help out with the rest of the bill. The world's other nuclear plant operators ain't in much better shape inregards to the amount of liability insurance they carry.
Yeah I remember last year. We were "supposed" to have the C or D storm by the season's start in June. And then everyone rage-quit when it didn't happen and started to call the season a bust before June was over XD. That was fun.
Thanks Nea!
Ok, my new blog is up.
Just go here
The government declared the 20-kilometer evacuation zone as a "no-entry zone" -- that is, entry into this area shall be prohibited for all except those carrying out emergency response work. Local mayors have granted temporary entry for one person per household. This does not mean there is a higher risk in the area; rather, it is meant to ensure evacuation and to prohibit re-entry without permission.
Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) announced that the radiation levels -- measured by robots -- were 10-49 millisieverts per hour at unit 1 and 28-57 millisieverts per hour at unit 3; these levels are considered very dangerous for workers. The robots also measured oxygen levels and temperatures, which were both found to be acceptable.
TEPCO announced that the estimated total of contaminated water is more than 67,000 tons.
Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) released a "road map" for stabilization of the Fukushima nuclear plants. The first step (approximately three months) will be to build a cooling system and water treatment facility. The second step (approximately six to nine months) will be to get the reactor and spent fuel under control (cooled status) and to stop the release of radioactive materials (air and water) into the environment.
Water samples taken from unit 4's spent fuel pool suggest that the fuel damage could be minor (220 Becquerel (Bq) per cubic meter for iodine 131, and 88 Bq per cubic meter for cesium 134). Still, the water temperature seems to be high, and cooling must continue.
Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) tried to absorb radioactive materials by putting zeolite into the sea. We shall see how effective this will be.
"Since January 1, the Texas Forest Service said, it has responded to more than 800 fires that have damaged some 5,000 structures across 1.4 million acres.
The state has seen fires in 252 of its 254 counties since December 21, 2010."
CNN...
Link
It is highly unlikely that the first development of the season will be of African origin, especially in pre-season. To my knowledge that has never occurred.
10N is also generally regarded as the southern border of the MDR. As Levi32 mentioned, development off Africa early in the season (and especially preseason) is very unlikely.
Waves over Africa, although very intense, are still too low in latitude.. Still another 10 degrees N more to go... and the CV machine is ON
It also takes more than one day of wind shear anomalies to determine whether we are ahead of schedule.
Taking April thus far as a whole, 200mb winds if taken all together have been averaging about normal overall in the MDR. An interesting thing to note is the easterly anomalies over and west of South America, indicating above-normal upward motion in the central-eastern Atlantic between the equator and 10N, which we have been seeing evidence of in the African blobs of late.
200mb zonal wind anomaly April 1st-April 19th, 2011:
NOAA doesn't draw that graphic. A computer spits out the probabilities.
Ignoring history is unwise. Although anything can happen, something that has never happened before can only be assumed to be unlikely to happen now if the circumstances are not extraordinary, which they aren't here.
dude you do realize what they say on the TWC almost every day is what the NWS says, go into a ditch, not into a car. Are you sure you didn't mix that up?
lol the TWC never said that, not sure what hes talking about
"Before 91L reaches Bermuda, steering currents will reverse and force 91L to the south-southwest on Saturday, into a region of higher wind shear."
$112.19
lol well they are always saying otherwise on there, she messed up and shoulda corrected herself, a lot of TV meteorologists must be somehow getting jobs without degrees in weather science or something.
WHXX01 KWBC 211849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC THU APR 21 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110421 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110421 1800 110422 0600 110422 1800 110423 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 63.0W 25.2N 63.7W 25.5N 64.1W 25.1N 64.6W
BAMD 24.4N 63.0W 26.8N 59.7W 29.4N 57.7W 31.4N 55.9W
BAMM 24.4N 63.0W 25.7N 62.8W 26.6N 62.8W 26.3N 63.0W
LBAR 24.4N 63.0W 25.5N 61.9W 26.4N 60.6W 27.1N 59.0W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 35KTS 31KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 35KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110423 1800 110424 1800 110425 1800 110426 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 65.9W 23.2N 70.1W 23.7N 74.6W 25.8N 77.9W
BAMD 32.4N 52.9W 30.1N 48.8W 28.3N 49.8W 26.5N 50.1W
BAMM 25.2N 63.9W 23.4N 66.2W 23.2N 68.3W 24.3N 70.4W
LBAR 27.6N 57.5W 27.3N 54.4W 26.5N 52.9W 25.8N 52.4W
SHIP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.4N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 23.4N LONM12 = 62.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 23.2N LONM24 = 60.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 105NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 105NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 105NM
$$
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