Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Unprecented floods on the Mississippi, in Colombia, and Canada

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:58 GMT le 16 mai 2011

The great Mississippi River flood of 2011 continues to make history, with Saturday's opening of the flood gates of the Morganza Spillway marking just the second time that flood control structure has been used since its construction in 1956. With the Morganza, Bonnet Carre', and Birds Point-New Madrid Spillways all open, the Army Corps of Engineers has now opened all of its major spillways simultaneously for the first time ever. The Mississippi is rising at Vicksburg, Mississippi, where the water has now reached 56.5', exceeding the previous all-time record of 56.2', set during the great flood of 1927. Natchez, Mississippi, is also at its greatest flood height on record, with the water at 60.6'. The previous record high was 58', set in 1937. However, the opening of the Morganza spillway has reduced the predicted heights of the great flood of 2011 from Natchez to New Orleans by 1 to 1.5'. This will serve to greatly reduce the pressure on the levees and on the Old River Control Structure, which as I discussed in my previous post, is America's Achilles' heel, and must be protected. According the National Weather Service, flood heights along the Lower Mississippi from Natchez to New Orleans will peak this week, and slowly fall next week. Rainfall over the next five days is expected to be minimal over the Lower Mississippi watershed. The next chance for significant rain over the region will come Sunday, May 22.

Figure 1. Saturday's opening of the first gate on the Morganza Spillway, as seen on the live feed from USTREAM.

Devastating flooding continues in Colombia
Devastating flooding has hit South America in Colombia, where exceptionally heavy spring rains have killed at least 425 people so far this year, with 482 others missing. Damages are in the billions, and there are 3 million disaster victims. "Some parts of the country have been set back 15 to 20 years", said Plan’s Country Director in Colombia, Gabriela Bucher. "Over the past 10 months we have registered five or six times more rainfall than usual," said the director of Colombia's weather service, Ricardo Lozano. Up to 800 mm (about 32 inches) of rain has fallen along the Pacific coast of Colombia over the past two weeks (Figure 3). The severe spring flooding follows on the heels of the heaviest fall rains in Colombia's History. Weather records go back 42 year in Colombia. Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos said, "the tragedy the country is going through has no precedents in our history." The 2010 floods killed 571 people--the second deadliest year for floods in Colombian history, next to 1987. The floods did over $1 billion in damage, and affected 2.8 million people. In many places, the flood waters from this great disaster never fully receded, and are now rising again due to this latest round of intense flooding. More rain is in the forecast--the latest forecast from the GFS model calls for an additional 5 - 10 inches (200 - 400 mm) across much of western and northern Colombia in the coming week.

Figure 2. Satellite-observed rainfall over Colombia during the past two weeks shows a region of up to 800 mm (about 32 inches) has fallen near the Pacific coast. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Colombia's rainy season usually has two peaks: one the fall in October, then then another in the spring in April - May. The heavy rains are due to the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the area encircling the earth near the Equator where winds originating in the northern and southern hemispheres come together. When these great wind belts come together (or "converge", thus the name "Convergence Zone"), the converging air is forced upwards, since it has nowhere else to go. The rising air fuels strong thunderstorm updrafts, creating a band of very heavy storms capable of causing heavy flooding rains. In La Niña years, when a large region of colder than average water is off the Pacific coast of Colombia, rainfall tends to increase over Colombia. La Niña was moderate to strong during the fall 2010 rains and floods in Colombia, and was largely to blame for Colombia's deadly rainy season. However, in recent months, La Niña has waned. April sea surface temperatures off the Pacific coast of Colombia (0° - 10°N, 85° - 75°W), warmed to the 13th highest temperatures in the past 100 years, 0.68°C above average. Thus, this month's flooding in Colombia may not be due to La Niña.

See also my December 2010 post, Heaviest rains in Colombia's history trigger deadly landslide; 145 dead or missing

Figure 3. Dramatic video of flooding in Colombia over the weekend. Flood waters swept away cars and buses in a busy street in the city of Barranquilla, and passengers climbed on the roofs of their vehicles in order to escape the flood waters. Video credit: BBC.

300-year flood in Canada; wildfires destroy large portions of Slave Lake, Alberta
In Manitoba, Canada, heavy spring snow melt in combination with heavy rains have combined to create record flooding on the Assiniboine River. Authorities intentionally breached a levee over the weekend to save hundreds of homes, but inundated huge areas of farmland as a result. The flood is being called a 300-year flood, and damages are already in excess of $1 billion. In Alberta, Canada, reverse extreme is causing havoc: severe drought and strong spring winds have made ideal conditions for wildfires, which swept into the community of Slave Lake (population 6,700) yesterday. The fires destroyed hundreds of buildings, burning down the town hall and at least 30% of the town, according to preliminary media reports.

Figure 4. Video of the May 15, 2011 Slave Lake fire.

First tropical wave of the year over the Atlantic
The first tropical wave of 2011 is now over the tropical Atlantic near 6°N 46°W, according to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion. The wave will bring heavy rain to the northeast coast of South America over the next two days, but is too far south to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. The Atlantic hurricane season is just two weeks away, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began yesterday. So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days.

Jeff Masters

The Great Flood of 2011 (jperilloux)

KCS train crossing the trestle through the Bonnet Carre Spillway at Norco, LA. Flood water diverted from Miss. River

Categories: Flood

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301. CaicosRetiredSailor 23:52 GMT le 16 mai 2011
Satellite image of the Morganza spillway with gate(s) open http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/post/morganza-spillway-from-space-image-of -day/2011/05/16/AFLCFA5G_blog.html. original from NASA photos at: http://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/5727210487/in/set-7215 7626684307622/#/ The Morganza Spillway as Seen by NASA's EO-1 Satellite NASA image captured May 15, 2011 This true color image of the Morganza Spillway located 45 miles northwest of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, was captured by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) instrument on NASA's Earth Observing (EO-1) satellite on May 15, 2011. According to ENN.com, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened up two of the 125 floodgates on May 14, and two more floodgates on May 15 to relieve the floodwaters on the Mississippi River (located to the far right). The spillway channels water from the Mississippi into the Atchafalaya River basin and will alleviate flooding in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, but flood homes, farms, a wildlife refuge and a small oil refinery. Image Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/EO-1 Team, Text: NASA/Rob Gutro Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117

302. aquak9 23:54 GMT le 16 mai 2011
awesome, CRS. I really wanted to see that exact thing- no idea how to find it. Glad you found it. My, what a brave new world WU has become. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

303. HurricaneDean07 23:59 GMT le 16 mai 2011
Quoting Stormchaser2007: EUROSIP from yesterday: Warm-biased neutral: Most Cluster toward a nuetral through 2011. Member Since: 3 octobre 2010 Posts: 39 Comments: 4035

304. tazzer06 00:00 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Here is another video from the tornado in tuscaloosa. I have seen many videos but these people are lucky. Warning its in spanish. Link Member Since: 18 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 31

305. Patrap 00:00 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Big un,.. Aligator killed on Jefferson Parish Levee Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111334

306. CaicosRetiredSailor 00:03 GMT le 17 mai 2011
The white painted roofs of the lifting crane structures show up very well on the spillway in the satellite photo. Tnx Aqua, I enjoy poking around finding things and the sharing what I find. CRS Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117

307. Patrap 00:05 GMT le 17 mai 2011
East bank residents are urged to stay away from Mississippi River levee Published: Monday, May 16, 2011, 5:36 PM David Grunfeld, The Times-Picayune For the sake of increased safety and more efficient inspection and flood- fighting activities, members of the public are asked to stay off the East Jefferson levees while the Mississippi River is at its peak. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111334

308. CaicosRetiredSailor 00:08 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Heads up, friends to the West, a BEAUTIFUL (almost full) MOON is coming to your SKY! O Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117

309. pottery 00:14 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting Patrap: Big un,.. Aligator killed on Jefferson Parish Levee You could get a lot of belts, shoes and purses from that one... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

311. aquak9 00:16 GMT le 17 mai 2011
CRS- yes it was so pretty last night, clear sky, illuminating the windows long after dark, a peaceful glowing blue. No carp discussion needed- I KNOW gator can be eaten! Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

312. pottery 00:16 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: Heads up, friends to the West, a BEAUTIFUL (almost full) MOON is coming to your SKY! O I'm a couple of miles to your east, (LOL), and it's high up here already. With some very pretty cloud too. Real nice. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

313. aspectre 00:22 GMT le 17 mai 2011
I want an alligator sandwich. And make it snappy. Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

314. TomTaylor 00:27 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Satellite view of Endeavor space shuttle launch Sorry if its already been posted. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 3896

315. BahaHurican 00:32 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting Patrap: Big un,.. Aligator killed on Jefferson Parish Levee Sure hope most of the gators get up on some levees where there AREN'T pple with guns.... lol or even pple at all, for the pple's sake.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17631

316. j2008 00:33 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting cyclonekid: Yea I noticed that about the same time. Persistence is the key to the NHC using their yellow crayon. Give it about a day or two to get organized, we might see the crayon pop out then. I'm hopeing that at the 10 update that they bring the crayon out and put a 30% or so. Member Since: 19 décembre 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 204

317. hydrus 00:34 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Pacific low in 96 hours GFS... Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14259

318. aquak9 00:36 GMT le 17 mai 2011
hold on CRS- I have a pic of your moon coming- give me a coupla minutes Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

319. pottery 00:38 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting aquak9: hold on CRS- I have a pic of your moon coming- give me a coupla minutes Careful, it's a Family Blog, you know.... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

320. aquak9 00:39 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Our moon, Jacksonville, Florida. since CRS sent it, I felt I had to share. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

321. RTLSNK (Mod) 00:39 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting aspectre: I want an alligator sandwich. And make it snappy. OK, here it is, but you have to get it out of the truck first. :) Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176

322. pottery 00:40 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting hydrus: Pacific low in 96 hours GFS... That image reminds me of how lucky (relatively speaking) Haiti was last year. From storms and rainfall, anyway. I hope their luck can run true this year again... Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

323. txjac 00:41 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Beautiful Moon ...we'll be seeing it soon! Last night it was simply awesome ..clear skies and the most stars that I have seen from Houston in a long, long time Thanks for sharing Member Since: 24 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1565

324. aquak9 00:41 GMT le 17 mai 2011
hahahaha pottery!! :) Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

325. pottery 00:42 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting RTLSNK: OK, here it is, but you have to get it out of the truck first. :) You do realise that that Gator has THE Towel, right?? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

326. pottery 00:43 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting aquak9: Our moon, Jacksonville, Florida. since CRS sent it, I felt I had to share. Lovely. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

327. aquak9 00:44 GMT le 17 mai 2011
And may I be the first to say, this is LastInnocentMoon. It is the last full moon before Season™. A very important moon, I send it to all of you with love and blessings. May the LastInnocentMoon smile upon all of you. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

328. aquak9 00:45 GMT le 17 mai 2011
OMG, pottery!!! they make towels of that pattern too?? Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

329. Tazmanian 00:45 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy: What?! What shower curtain? Where?! under your youe Bed Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

330. pottery 00:47 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting aquak9: And may I be the first to say, this is LastInnocentMoon. It is the last full moon before Season™. A very important moon, I send it to all of you with love and blessings. May the LastInnocentMoon smile upon all of you. Thanks. And I hope that you see the next one, and all of them after that too. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

331. RTLSNK (Mod) 00:48 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting pottery: You do realise that that Gator has THE Towel, right?? Yes, you don't suppose, no, it couldn't be his. :) Member Since: 3 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15176

332. CaicosRetiredSailor 00:48 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting pottery: You do realise that that Gator has THE Towel, right?? Vury sharp eyes, has dat Pottery fella! I think it has to do with some Elixier he keeps in a jug (I have been told) Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117

333. pottery 00:49 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting aquak9: OMG, pottery!!! they make towels of that pattern too?? Apparently. I never knew that until Snake posted that pic. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

334. hydrus 00:49 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting TomTaylor: Satellite view of Endeavor space shuttle launch Sorry if its already been posted. Very cool pic Tom. Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14259

335. pottery 00:50 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting RTLSNK: Yes, you don't suppose, no, it couldn't be his. :) Well, if it's his, good riddance to him. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

336. pottery 00:55 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: Vury sharp eyes, has dat Pottery fella! I think it has to do with some Elixier he keeps in a jug (I have been told) Ah. But you need to know the Secret Words to mumble along with the sipping. I'll give you a hint. It starts with 'chee' and ends with 'rs'. You'll never figure it out. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

337. Jedkins01 00:56 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting StAugustineFL: Waiting patiently. Can we fast forward 2-3 weeks? I wish! The Florida wet season is the highlight of my life, and hurricane season, minus the death and destruction part! Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

338. hydrus 00:59 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: Vury sharp eyes, has dat Pottery fella! I think it has to do with some Elixier he keeps in a jug (I have been told) Its all those powerful anti-oxidants in the delicious South American wine that keeps those eyes as sharp as a hawks...Good evening Pott..:) Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14259

339. pottery 01:04 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting hydrus: Its all those powerful anti-oxidants in the delicious South American wine that keeps those eyes as sharp as a hawks...Good evening Pott..:) Greetings Hydrus. A nice shower here earlier dropped nearly 1/2" on my plants (that I had watered this morning!). Never fails. But at least it topped up the tanks to back where they were.... Just enjoying a glass of Chilean Merlot, from Santa Rita. Funny that you mentioned that... Salud! Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

340. hydrus 01:09 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting pottery: Greetings Hydrus. A nice shower here earlier dropped nearly 1/2" on my plants (that I had watered this morning!). Never fails. But at least it topped up the tanks to back where they were.... Just enjoying a glass of Chilean Merlot, from Santa Rita. Funny that you mentioned that... Salud! Its also funny that merlot and burgundy are my favorites..My Great Grandfather was from France not far from the Burgundy Region.... Member Since: 27 septembre 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14259

341. AllyBama 01:16 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting aquak9: And may I be the first to say, this is LastInnocentMoon. It is the last full moon before Season™. A very important moon, I send it to all of you with love and blessings. May the LastInnocentMoon smile upon all of you. Thank you Aqua..and may it smile upon you too. Member Since: 3 août 2006 Posts: 131 Comments: 20499

342. pottery 01:20 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting hydrus: Its also funny that merlot and burgundy are my favorites..My Great Grandfather was from France not far from the Burgundy Region.... A man of Good Taste, obviously. :):)) Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

343. MechEngMet 01:20 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Evening all. That gator towel is the funniest thing I've seen in three weeks. To think someone actually manufactures a bath set of curtain and towel... UGH!!! Pot, thanks for pointing that out! I'd sent you a fifth of that eye potion if I could. Keep up the good humor. Buying new shutters for the house this season. I don't know if that's a good omen or not. Usually if I prepare for something, it never happens. Call it Murphys Law for disastrous probabilities if you will, or whatever. (Buy insurance and you'll never need it...) Based on the new shutters (and nothing else) I say I'm safe for at lest three seasons. Member Since: 13 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

344. Jedkins01 01:27 GMT le 17 mai 2011
cold air aloft is causing some instability showers to begin developing here on the West Coast of FLorida. This is the first time I can remember getting convection and being able to call it "light convection". Here convection almost always means torrential rain. But when you have a dew point of 59, a temp of 68, and and only a 1.1 PWAT, I guess you can't expect much more! lol I'm surprised any convection is developing in such a poor environment. Normally you won't see a cloud in the sky here in these conditions. But we actually have shallow, but billowing convection as the sun sets, although ragged in appearance, unlike our normal moist, tropical convection. Then again, sometimes severe thunderstorms have developed in the northern plains with even less moisture and even cooler temps then this. Its all about the steep lapse rates and upper disturbances, and convergence. The atmosphere can squeeze out a lot more moisture then you think, even "dry air" like we have, given the right atmospheric situations. Member Since: 21 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5333

345. CaicosRetiredSailor 01:32 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting pottery: Ah. But you need to know the Secret Words to mumble along with the sipping. I'll give you a hint. It starts with 'chee' and ends with 'rs'. You'll never figure it out. ...um By Jove, I think I've got it, CHEERLEADERS yup, I'll swig 'n say it with conviction... and see what improvement in my INsight that brings! CRS Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117

346. pottery 01:34 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting MechEngMet: Evening all. That gator towel is the funniest thing I've seen in three weeks. To think someone actually manufactures a bath set of curtain and towel... UGH!!! Pot, thanks for pointing that out! I'd sent you a fifth of that eye potion if I could. Keep up the good humor. Buying new shutters for the house this season. I don't know if that's a good omen or not. Usually if I prepare for something, it never happens. Call it Murphys Law for disastrous probabilities if you will, or whatever. (Buy insurance and you'll never need it...) Based on the new shutters (and nothing else) I say I'm safe for at lest three seasons. And shirts to go with it, too. AHH, Life is so sweet! You still in VI's ? Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

347. pottery 01:36 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: ...um By Jove, I think I've got it, CHEERLEADERS yup, I'll swig 'n say it with conviction... and see what improvement in my INsight that brings! CRS BRILLIANT!! But be very careful. Cheerleaders come in bundles. Or so I am led to believe. Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

348. MechEngMet 01:37 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor: ...um By Jove, I think I've got it, CHEERLEADERS yup, I'll swig 'n say it with conviction... and see what improvement in my INsight that brings! CRS Be careful shouting that while hoisting a few CRS. Doing so within 100 ft of a parochial high-school just might get you arrested. Member Since: 13 avril 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

349. pottery 01:39 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting MechEngMet: Be careful shouting that while hoisting a few CRS. Doing so within 100 ft of a parochial high-school just might get you arrested. hahahahahah very good! Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 20708

350. ShenValleyFlyFish 01:39 GMT le 17 mai 2011
Quoting aquak9: OMG, pottery!!! they make towels of that pattern too?? By Gorah! I may have found it! Funky Fish Nautical Shower Curtain Member Since: 9 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4684

351. CaicosRetiredSailor 01:40 GMT le 17 mai 2011
I see... Member Since: 12 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5117

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