Mississippi River flood of 2011 sets all-time flow record, but has crested

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:43 GMT le 20 mai 2011

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The great Mississippi River flood of 2011 crested yesterday and today, and the volume of water being pushed toward the Gulf of Mexico is the largest ever recorded on the Mississippi, said Bob Anderson, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers for the Mississippi Valley Division. "It's never been this high; it's never had this much water," he said. "There's just a tremendous amount of strain on these levees." The Mississippi crested yesterday at Vicksburg, Mississippi, reaching 57.06'. This exceeded the previous all-time record of 56.2', set during the great flood of 1927. The river crested at Natchez, Mississippi early this morning, and is now falling. The flood height at Natchez was also the greatest on record--61.91', nearly three feet higher than the previous record height of 58', set in 1937. The opening of the Morganza Spillway on Saturday helped to reduce the flood heights from Vicksburg to New Orleans by 1 - 3 feet, greatly reducing the pressure on the levees and on the critical Old River Control Structure (which, as I discussed last Friday, is America's Achilles' heel, and must be protected.) According the National Weather Service, the Mississippi River is no longer rising anywhere along its length, and the great flood of 2011 has likely seen its peak. Rainfall over the next five days will not be enough to raise the Mississippi River water levels above the crests recorded yesterday and today. While it is great news that the flood has peaked, and the Old River Control Structure and all of the mainline levees on the Mississippi River have held, the fight is not over yet. Water levels will stay high for many weeks, and these structures will take a sustained pounding that could still cause failures. If another incredible heavy rain event like we experienced in mid-April occurs in June, the levee system and Old River Control Structure will threatened. Let's hope we don't have an early season Gulf of Mexico tropical storm that makes landfall over Louisiana. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model is not hinting at anything like this, fortunately. It's a good thing (for the sake of the levees) that Louisiana experienced severe drought over the winter and spring--had the water levels been high throughout winter and spring, like occurred in the run-up to the great 1927 flood, the levees would have been soggy and much more vulnerable to failure once the big flood crest hit.


Figure 1. The flow of the Mississippi River past the Old River Control Structure near Simmesport, Louisiana reached its all-time highest volume on record Thursday, when the flow rate hit 2.3 million cubic feet per second (cfs). The flow of Niagara Falls at normal water levels is 100,000 cfs, so the Mississippi's flow was 23 times that of Niagara Falls. Image credit: Army Corps of Engineers.

Recommended reading
My post on the Old River Control Structure, America's Achilles' heel: the Mississippi River Old River Control Structure, is well worth reading, if you haven't done so. I plan on making a follow-up post next week discussing the economic cost of the failure of this critical flood-control structure.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has made a very interesting post on the greatest floods to affect each continent.


Figure 2. Track forecast for Tropical Storm Four.

First typhoon of 2011 coming?
In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Four has formed, and appears poised to become the first typhoon of 2011 by early next week. The storm is expected to head west-northwest or northwest towards the Philippines. While the GFS model predicts Tropical Storm Four will miss the Philippines and recurve northwards towards Japan late next week, it is too early to be confident of this forecast.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

In Bound (minou)
Chances of over-topping Baton Rouge or Port Allen levees are slim to none. Problems with this volume continuing for 2 weeks or longer is the question of whether the levees will stand the test of pressure. Thank goodness we've been in a drought or else the levees would be mushy inside and out! The Hwy. 190 Bridge in the distance was closed the day before this photo due to a run-away barge that struck the base.
In Bound
High Water at Baton Rouge (cmrbg06)
High Water at Baton Rouge
High Water at Baton Rouge

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Quoting Chicklit:
Hopefully, that's good news for the Caymans Levi as we know they need rain. Anyway, goodnight.
I do think I will wake up in the morning and still be here. Will not be taken up in the rapture which is okay with me. I want to stay on earth as long as I can.

I'm sure we will all be here tomorrow (barring natural causes of course).
Sleep well..
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Well I best get my "exit entry" finished soon, cuz I have a lil more to say before I get "Raptured".

Pottery,,I'll wu mail you my log in info and you can post it for me Sunday am.

I'll also leave my Bank addy and PIN #
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089

Quoting Patrap:
If I wake up Sunday and Im "banned",,does it mean I cant log on from Heaven?
KoritheMan likes this.
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Hopefully, that's good news for the Caymans Levi as we know they need rain. Anyway, goodnight.
I do think I will wake up in the morning and not be taken up in the rapture which is okay with me.
I want to stay on earth as long as I can.
peace
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


If that's what it takes to be immune from rap, I'm in. (I drive school bus in inner city) ;>)
That makes you exempt......I read it on the internet so it must be true.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting PcolaDan:


If that's what it takes to be immune from rap, I'm in. (I drive school bus in inner city) ;>)



LOLOL, now that is hilarious...:O
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Quoting PcolaDan:


If that's what it takes to be immune from rap, I'm in. (I drive school bus in inner city) ;>)

heheheh
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
My very best friend in high school, a brilliant, entertaining girl was swallowed up in the rapture in college and has never come out of it.
If I told you how long she's been a JW then you'd know how old I am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
Although we need the blog moderator Neo to tell us if our thinking is correct.

Maybe he 'left' already?
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting Patrap:
If I wake up Sunday and Im "banned",,does it mean I cant log on from Heaven?
Not at all.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
If I wake up Sunday and Im "banned",,does it mean I cant log on from Heaven?
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting WaterWitch11:


Hey WW11, how's everything in your area? Been a sultry day in the south........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nearly non-existent trade winds have allowed a lot of energy to build up during the last 10 days:



Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
Quoting pottery:

Come to think of it most of my neighbors are either Hindu or Muslim.
I think they are Immune from the Rap.


If that's what it takes to be immune from rap, I'm in. (I drive school bus in inner city) ;>)
Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting twincomanche:
Thank you I suspect it will start near you.
Although we need the blog moderator Neo to tell us if our thinking is correct.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting Chicklit:
Humans being able to proclaim the end of the world due to divine intervention is like a three year old being able to perform trigonometry.

ain't happenin'
ever


You are assuming that there are Rational people around?
:)
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting twincomanche:
Thank you I suspect it will start near you.

Excellent!
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
<

that's funny
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Humans being able to proclaim the end of the world due to divine intervention is like a three year old being able to perform trigonometry.

ain't happenin'
ever

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

I'll be keeping an eye out.
Will let you know if I see any Signs.
Thank you I suspect it will start near you.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
um... DA Math!

This year-old posting from Church of God News runs the numbers: Saturday supposedly marks 7,000 years since the Noah's Ark flood, and 722,500 days since Jesus' crucifixion. By Camping's numerology,
722,500 represents (5 x 10 x 17) x (5 x 10 x 17),
or the square of atonement times completeness times heaven.

follow that? 

Absolutely!
But then I am a little Strange as well....
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting pottery:

True!
Actually, my neighbors are indeed Muslim and Hindu people. Good people.
This part of the Island was Sugar estates, and people were brought from India after the Abolition of Slavery, as Indentured Labour.
They all stayed, and the population here is about 48% East Indian extract, 48% African extract, and 4% everyone else.
About 1.5 million overall population.

Here in PR Hindu people are rare to be seen... We do have Muslims around, very loborious people...
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting twincomanche:
Watch for Christians being sucked up into the sky while the Hindus watch tamale.


I'll be keeping an eye out.
Will let you know if I see any Signs.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
um... DA Math!

This year-old posting from Church of God News runs the numbers: Saturday supposedly marks 7,000 years since the Noah's Ark flood, and 722,500 days since Jesus' crucifixion. By Camping's numerology,
722,500 represents (5 x 10 x 17) x (5 x 10 x 17),
or the square of atonement times completeness times heaven.

follow that? 
No.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
um... DA Math!

This year-oldposting from Church of God News runs the numbers:Saturday supposedly marks 7,000 years since the Noah's Ark flood, and 722,500 days since Jesus' crucifixion. By Camping's numerology,
722,500represents (5 x 10 x 17) x (5 x 10 x 17),
or the square of atonement times completeness times heaven.

follow that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

True!
Actually, my neighbors are indeed Muslim and Hindu people. Good people.
This part of the Island was Sugar estates, and people were brought from India after the Abolition of Slavery, as Indentured Labour.
They all stayed, and the population here is about 48% East Indian extract, 48% African extract, and 4% everyone else.
About 1.5 million overall population.
Watch for Christians being sucked up into the sky while the Hindus watch tamale.

Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting twincomanche:
That would be a interesting test if this wasn't just another joke.

True!
Actually, my neighbors are indeed Muslim and Hindu people. Good people.
This part of the Island was Sugar estates, and people were brought from India after the Abolition of Slavery, as Indentured Labour.
They all stayed, and the population here is about 48% East Indian extract, 48% African extract, and 4% everyone else.
About 1.5 million overall population.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the wack job has never claim the 21st is the end its the rapture is what he is claiming to be then after that its the beginning of the end which happens 5 months from now after mom nature has her way with us first

we all have it coming every single one of us nobody gets out alive in the end nobody
I repeat get a change on your meds soon..........or you are in danger of being like the crazy minister.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Keeper, you're worrying me.~~
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wow!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Come to think of it most of my neighbors are either Hindu or Muslim.
I think they are Immune from the Rap.


Hindus go in Nirvana...
Muslims go in Jihad...
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
?
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54803
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Ahhhh, not familiar with that one...is that just a Yankee game...lol....
for sure.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26681
In Spanish, rupture or rapture (whatever way it is spelled), is
El Arrebato...

Los santos se van en el arrebato...
The saints will go in the Rupture
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting pottery:

Come to think of it most of my neighbors are either Hindu or Muslim.
I think they are Immune from the Rap.
That would be a interesting test if this wasn't just another joke.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting twincomanche:


Euchre...Good old Wisconsin game don't you know.


Ahhhh, not familiar with that one...is that just a Yankee game...lol....
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Quoting twincomanche:


I can relate to that.

Come to think of it most of my neighbors are either Hindu or Muslim.
I think they are Immune from the Rap.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Oh, Rapture! Pranks are in the works
By Alan Boyle
If you see scenes like this in your neighborhood, DON'T PANIC! Cast-off clothes are not a sign that the elect have been taken up in Saturday's scheduled Rapture. It's more likely to be a prank suggested by Jonathan Elliot, a self-described "architect of the liberal conspiracy" from New Zealand. Other pranksters have suggested filling blow-up dolls with helium and sending them heavenward ... or calling your boss at 5:58 p.m. local time and leaving a message about how much you love your job, then ending the call in midsentence. If you do such things, let folks know by sending Twitter updates with the #raptureprank or #rapturebomb hashtag. We'll see who has the last laugh this weekend.



This....is brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting pottery:

Sigh..
I was kind of looking forward to some of my neighbors leaving....


I can relate to that.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Ever play Rook ? Good ole card game...just saying


Euchre...Good old Wisconsin game don't you know.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Came on just to see 'end of the world' garbage, lol.
Member Since: 2 septembre 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting guygee:


Kind of like during WWII, when everyone chipped in to beat Hitler...the Soviets did most of the work, though, and were outproducing us in aircraft, tanks and other weapons by the fall of the Third Reich. The Pacific war was more of a sideshow, an anticlimax...Japan never had a chance to beat us...even before we developed the Bomb.


then, the US sent Mr. Edwards Deming... The Quality Guru that no one heard in the US... And he teached the Japanese how to build quality products... They listened, applied what was learned and became todays tech. superpower... although the Fukushima nightmare is going against that...
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9874
Quoting twincomanche:
The neighbors and and my bride and I have a card game scheduled, so the world can't end. End of discussion.

Sigh..
I was kind of looking forward to some of my neighbors leaving....
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646
Quoting twincomanche:
The neighbors and and my bride and I have a card game scheduled, so the world can't end. End of discussion.


Ever play Rook ? Good ole card game...just saying
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
everything has an end everything including you
Change your meds post haste. Everything has a end but it ain't going to be tomorrow because some whack job guy says so and the nit wit press picks up on it.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting twincomanche:


Or thinking the world is going to end tamale.
everything has an end everything including you
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54803
The neighbors and and my bride and I have a card game scheduled, so the world can't end. End of discussion.
Member Since: 2 janvier 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 586
Quoting twincomanche:
I can assure you it is not going to end.

Shucks.
Member Since: 24 octobre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24646


Oh, Rapture! Pranks are in the works
By Alan Boyle
If you see scenes like this in your neighborhood, DON'T PANIC! Cast-off clothes are not a sign that the elect have been taken up in Saturday's scheduled Rapture. It's more likely to be a prank suggested by Jonathan Elliot, a self-described "architect of the liberal conspiracy" from New Zealand. Other pranksters have suggested filling blow-up dolls with helium and sending them heavenward ... or calling your boss at 5:58 p.m. local time and leaving a message about how much you love your job, then ending the call in midsentence. If you do such things, let folks know by sending Twitter updates with the #raptureprank or #rapturebomb hashtag. We'll see who has the last laugh this weekend.
http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/05/20/6 685223-oh-rapture-pranks-are-in-the-works

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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