Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

the most up to date tron cone


Link

Where can I access the EMXI forcast model? And when do we get access to the upgraded models?

12Z GFS Surface Based CAPE at/over 5,000 J/kg
Valid 7PM CDT

Kinda far from the mid-level dynamics/height falls over the upper midwest-but extreme instability along the dryline.

0z FIMz

162 Hours (Long-Range)

Quoting Bitmap7:
Where can I access the EMXI forcast model? And when do we get access to the upgraded models?

Never heard of the EMXI model. Its probably a private model.

It appears that Songda has entrained some of that dry air that was lurking just north of it yesterday. However, as the upper trough finally gets by it to the north over the next 24 hours, upper outflow will improve more and allow the system to become a typhoon.

Not liking this, 3 days over bath water, could see a high-end Cat 4 low-end Cat 5 Super Typhoon.


Click image for loop.
Can see it sucking in moisture. Expanding already.

Moisturizing the atmosphere around it.

Click image for loop

eyewall- thank you. Whoa that was some heady reading, BUT I was able to understand some performance aspects. Seems like when they tweak (poor term) a model, some of the output is improved, other output remains steady, even as far as iffy, but not much change from previous.

So much data to apply and re-apply to a single model run, one weak spot can throw the whole thing off. BUT there will always be weak spots to be found in our understanding of present-day fluid dynamics, we are only simple humans.

1st nado watch out all most up too PDS watch it has 40% ch of EF2 too EF5

Quoting AussieStorm:


Not liking this, 3 days over bath water, could see a high-end Cat 4 low-end Cat 5 Super Typhoon.


Click image for loop.
Can see it sucking in moisture. Expanding already.

Moisturizing the atmosphere around it.

Click image for loop

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (221014Z TRMM AND 221102Z SSMIS) DEPICT
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE WITH
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY ABOVE THE SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN STEADY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 04W HAS TRACKED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
IN THE EARLY TAUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH DEPICTS A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TS SONGDA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE STR. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-CURVE AFTER THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
INTO NORTHERN LUZON, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT.
GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND SOUTHWARD BUT REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER
WITHIN THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS,
EGRR, ECMWF, AND NOGAPS.//
NNNN

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:

Thanks! That'll make your eyes blurry!

i think in oder to have a PDS you have have the EF 2 to EF5 ch up too 50% too 60% ch

After a short cool down last week it's back to summer:

most important addition I see is a change to the convective scheme which seems to reduce feedback errors out past 36 hours.

CV's past 72 hours don't differ much, BUT initialization totally tightens up the models up to 72 hours dropping CV as much as 35%.

ok I have obviously had way too much coffee if some of this stuff is making sense.

Wind Shear.


Shear Tendency


Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery

Quoting aquak9:
most important addition I see is a change to the convective scheme which seems to reduce feedback errors out past 36 hours.

CV's past 72 hours don't differ much, BUT initialization totally tightens up the models up to 72 hours dropping CV as much as 35%.

ok I have obviously had way too much coffee if some of this stuff is making sense.

When you understand it all, please post and explain it to me......

Quoting DEKRE:


In the US, because they don't know any better

Nobody knows datum is singular of data or that die is the singular of dice.

Is that big moderate zone through the northern and eastern plains for this afternoon?

Quoting Tazmanian:
i think in oder to have a PDS you have have the EF 2 to EF5 ch up too 50% too 60% ch

PDS:
The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. This enhanced wording may also accompany severe thunderstorm watches for exceptionally intense and well organized convective wind storms. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective. There is no hard threshold or criteria. In high risk outlooks PDS watches are issued most often.
SPC FAQ's

Quoting beell:


PDS:
The "particularly dangerous situation" wording is used in rare situations when long-lived, strong and violent tornadoes are possible. This enhanced wording may also accompany severe thunderstorm watches for exceptionally intense and well organized convective wind storms. PDS watches are issued, when in the opinion of the forecaster, the likelihood of significant events is boosted by very volatile atmospheric conditions. Usually this decision is based on a number of atmospheric clues and parameters, so the decision to issue a PDS watch is subjective. There is no hard threshold or criteria. In high risk outlooks PDS watches are issued most often.
SPC FAQ's

ok

Quoting DEKRE:


In the US, because they don't know any better

Haha...you are so right!

A quick animation I made of the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea Surface Temperatures on May 22nd between the years of 1998 and 2011.

May 22, 1998 - May 22, 2011 Sea Surface Temperatures

TS SONGDA

Hi all

This storm is developing fast and may become a threat to Luzon as a CAT 3 or CAT 4 cyclone if its not steered northward.
Gonna watch this one closely over the next few days as it develops.Has potential to be a very dangerous and powerful landfall cyclone due to its size and the perfect conditions of high SST and good outflow along its path.

with a decent easterly flow and a shallow west coast seabreeze,i would expect some strong and possibly isolated severe storms along fl's west coast later this evening after 5pm

interesting little mid level feature over western cuba spinning

Quoting stillwaiting:
with a decent easterly flow and a shallow west coast seabreeze,i would expect some strong and possibly isolated severe storms along fl's west coast later this evening after 5pm

Let's Hope so. I'm a little south of you in Rotonda West, and we have been missing out over here.

Aussie~ That's really neat MIMIC animation you posted. It shows the atmosphere coupling through all levels of Songda & becoming vertically stacked.

Various pictures of the Grímsvötn eruption. (a couple appear not to be and may be mislabeled)

Dave4321, I'll second you here in the Cape (Coral) .... Not signing up for hail, but would live a good thunderboomer this afternoon. (Heck, I'm heading outside right now to start a major project; maybe that'll kickstart something! LOL)

On a serious note, I sure hope this dry pattern changes soon. My grass is getting crispy again, and my eyes are starved for falling rain.

Quoting beell:
12Z GFS Surface Based CAPE at/over 5,000 J/kg
Valid 7PM CDT

Kinda far from the mid-level dynamics/height falls over the upper midwest-but extreme instability along the dryline.

Several storm chasers are expecting a evening full of potential. Reed's Twitter updates have been a bit ominous today. He's looking at Eastern OK as many are.

You can be sure, Camping has achieved his goal; he lived a real rapture:

"As Saturday drew nearer, followers reported that donations grew, allowing Family Radio to spend millions on more than 5,000 billboards and 20 RVs plastered with the doomsday message. In 2009, the nonprofit reported in IRS filings that it received $18.3 million in donations, and had assets of more than $104 million, including $34 million in stocks or other publicly traded securities".

You can be sure that....Suddenly, all his money in his bank accounts went in Rapture, through wire transfer, in different directions; Panama, Great Cayman and Switzerland (Banks)...

Quoting PcolaDan:
Various pictures of the Grímsvötn eruption. (a couple appear not to be and may be mislabeled)

Incredible pictures. Looks like the intensity of the eruption has lessened as well. The composition of the ash falling looks to be of a less-harmful variety, especially to livestock. Which is good news.

lol

Quoting sunlinepr:

Interesting feature in the mid carib.

View east from Reykjavík towards approaching ash.

Weird. I was looking for links on "elevated mixed layer" and clicked on one that got a malicious website warning from Norton. Maybe the site was harmless but got hacked. Just seems strange.

Quoting tropicaltank:
Interesting feature in the mid carib.

Yep!

,..trending west too


Curtains to Yellow ALERT

So what is going to end the drought in southeast Texas? I figure the same events will end drought in a lot of other places, too, but that's my personal interest. I read about strong capping in the Houston forecast discussions--which seems to be the same kind of capping that contributes to tornado outbreaks further north. I don't want the tornadoes (anywhere) but when can SE Texas see either a) an end to the capping or b) some mechanisms to let convection break the cap?

North of Austin had some good rains yesterday apparently helped out by the dry line. I don't think the dry line is going to make it to Houston any time soon.

bappit- I can only tell ya, what my gut says. It's gonna come with a number or a name.