Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Deadliest U.S. tornado since 1953 rips through Joplin, Missouri, killing 89
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:11 GMT le 23 mai 2011 +8
The incredibly violent tornado season of 2011 struck another sickening blow last night, when a violent tornado carved a ½ – ¾ mile-wide path of devastation through Joplin, Missouri. At least 89 people died, hundreds were injured, and huge sections of the town virtually obliterated. Damage from the tornado is so severe that pavement was ripped from the ground, which is characteristic of a top-end EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph. This was almost certainly a least an EF-4 tornado with winds over 166 mph, and the level of damage is so extreme that this is likely to surpass last month's Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornado as the costliest tornado of all-time.


Figure 1. Cars stacked on top of each other in front of the heavily damaged St. Johns Regional Medical Center after the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri. Note the pavement ripped up from the road and piled in front of the cars. Tornadoes powerful enough to rip up pavement are frequently classified as EF-5 with winds in excess of 200 mph. Image credit: Chris McCrillis, posted to Twitter.

The huge supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin tornado formed over extreme southeast Kansas yesterday afternoon, along the boundary between warm, moist air flowing northwards from the Gulf of Mexico, and cold, dry air moving south from Canada. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had put the region in its “moderate risk” region for severe weather. As the supercell moved into Southwest Missouri, it spawned the tornado that roared through Joplin at 5:45pm CDT. This storm generated other tornadoes, straight-line wind damage, and flash flooding from torrential rains that exceeded six inches as it moved east southeast across Southwest Missouri. SPC recorded 48 preliminary reports of tornadoes yesterday, bringing the 2-day total for the current outbreak to 70. A tornado also killed one person and injured 22 in Minneapolis Sunday. Separate tornadoes killed one person each in Andice, Texas and Reading, Kansas on Saturday—the first tornado deaths in the U.S. since the April 25 – 28 Super Outbreak.


Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri tornado, ½ hour after it devastated the city (circle with the “+” symbol.)


Figure 3. Radar Doppler velocity image of the supercell thunderstorm that spawned the Joplin, Missouri tornado, ½ hour after it devastated the city (circle with the “+” symbol.)


Figure 4. Satellite image taken at 5:45pm CDT May 22, 2011, when the Joplin, Missouri tornado was occurring. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Deadliest tornado since 1953
Yesterday's Joplin, Missouri tornado is the deadliest single tornado in the U.S. since June 10, 1953, when 94 people died in the Worcester, Massachusetts tornado. The previous deadliest tornado in the past 50 years occurred just last month, when 65 people died in the Tuscaloosa-Birmingham EF-4 tornado in Alabama. This year's tornado death toll now stands at 455, making it the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. The deadliest year was 1925, with 794 deaths. That was the year of the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time, the great Tri-State tornado, which killed 695 people in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

More severe weather today
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a large section of the Midwest U.S., including portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, in its “moderate risk” region for severe weather today. The threat of tornadoes will not be as great today as yesterday, with today's main threat being large hail and damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds. However, I do expect we will see a dozen or so tornadoes today, and residents of the at-risk area need to keep in mind the deadly history of this storm system. The severe weather threat will continue into Tuesday, when additional tornadoes are likely over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Southwest Missouri. A severe thunderstorm roared through Joplin between 8:30am and 9am CDT this morning, bringing heavy rain, small hail, and wind gusts to 36 mph. Undoubtedly, this storm frayed some nerves, and the city will remain at risk of seeing more severe thunderstorms through Tuesday night.


Figure 5. Severe weather threat for Monday, May 23, 2011.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video. We won't see a lot of spectacular videos of the Joplin tornado, since it was wrapped in rain and difficult to see.

Listen to my 12-minute interview on the historic April 2011 tornadoes for EarthSky.org, which aired on NPR earlier this month. I discuss how climate change might impact severe weather and tornadoes.

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on The World's Deadliest Tornadoes.

My 2008 post, Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent? The answer is--we don't know.


Figure 6. The Portlight relief trailer being loaded in Summerville, SC, in preparation for a journey to the April tornado disaster zone.

Helping out tornado victims
For those who want to lend a helping hand to those impacted by the widespread destruction this spring's severe weather has brought, stop by the Red Cross website, or portlight.org blog. Portlight has been very active bringing aid to the victims of this year's tornadoes.

Jeff Masters
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Wall Cloud (thomasanthony)
Rotating wall cloud coming through Perry Kansas. That speck towards the top is a helicopter.
Wall Cloud
Gran Tara by ketchum ok. (wick918)
The one that hit Joplin Mo.
Gran Tara  by ketchum ok.
Reading, KS (wheelingrabbit)
Reading, KS Grain Silo
Reading, KS
Categories: Tornado
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251. HarryMc 21:47 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Guess I have to start paying attention again. I was surprised to see an Invest in the Atlantic Basin. Being so focused and just returning from working the Alabama Tornadoes. Looks to be an active season.
Member Since: 30 Mars 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 325
252. TampaSpin 21:47 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting weaverwxman:
I'm with you chicklet in the no rain in Fla even with all this heat. Yesterday was clear blue skies in S.Fla looked like a cold winter day.Never seen 90 and clear blue skies that I can remember and I've lived here all my life.


Rain is coming, i am getting some sprinkles as we speak now.......look at the mositure that has returned to Florida. Rainy days are coming.


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253. emcf30 21:48 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Tomorrow, May 24, 2011, has all the makings of an extremely dangerous weather day across the southern Plains. Parmeters are highly indicative of long-tracked, strong to violent tornadoes across Kansas and Oklahoma. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day-2 Moderate Risk, and an upgrade to High Risk appears likely. Residents of the risk areas are strongly urged to monitor this developing situation and have a good severe weather plan in place now. Dozens of storm chasers will be covering this event to provide ground-truth to NWS and media personnel;

Link
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254. hurricanehunter27 21:50 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
You and me are both Tornado videos fans ;)
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255. Tazmanian 21:50 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting emcf30:

You may get your wish, The made it a point earlier that this was a prelem and the final will come out tomorrow.
Source Dr. Forbes



ok
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256. emcf30 21:51 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
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257. StAugustineFL 21:55 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting emcf30:
Tomorrow, May 24, 2011, has all the makings of an extremely dangerous weather day across the southern Plains. Parmeters are highly indicative of long-tracked, strong to violent tornadoes across Kansas and Oklahoma. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day-2 Moderate Risk, and an upgrade to High Risk appears likely. Residents of the risk areas are strongly urged to monitor this developing situation and have a good severe weather plan in place now. Dozens of storm chasers will be covering this event to provide ground-truth to NWS and media personnel;

Link


Current TorCon index at 7 in south-central KS and north-central OK.
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258. TampaSpin 21:57 GMT le 23 mai 2011    






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259. emcf30 22:00 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Current TorCon index at 7 in south-central KS and north-central OK.


If you read the article I posted 253 it seems all the ingredients are coming together for a serious outbreak tomorrow. Lets just pray they stay away from populated areas. Have some potential for some big long track nados
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260. catastropheadjuster 22:00 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
I was wondering is there anything going on in Tenn well Memphis right outside of there? My friend and i was talking and he said it looks really bad like really cooled off and the clouds look like there rotating. I mean I don't know I was just wondering.

sheri
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261. emcf30 22:02 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
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262. hurricanehunter27 22:04 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting emcf30:


If you read the article I posted 253 it seems all the ingredients are coming together for a serious outbreak tomorrow. Lets just pray they stay away from populated areas. Have some potential for some big long track he nados


He is right tommorow has all the right stuff for a major outbreak. Right now though a chaser named lance ferguson has a low roatating wall cloud Link down below

Link
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263. cyclonekid 22:05 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
remember that even if 92L becomes 30-40 mph it will still be NON-TROPICAL unless if it becomes Tropical which I don't but on the other hand down in the Southwestern Caribbean we could see something there between now and the next 2 weeks
Let me introduce you to the term Subtropical :)
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264. emcf30 22:05 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was wondering is there anything going on in Tenn well Memphis right outside of there? My friend and i was talking and he said it looks really bad like really cooled off and the clouds look like there rotating. I mean I don't know I was just wondering.

sheri


These storms are warned North of Memphis
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266. violet312s 22:08 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting presslord:
Joplin tornado formingLink


Amazing how it went from a tiny funnel cloud to massive tornado in 30 seconds. :(
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267. TampaSpin 22:08 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
I was wondering is there anything going on in Tenn well Memphis right outside of there? My friend and i was talking and he said it looks really bad like really cooled off and the clouds look like there rotating. I mean I don't know I was just wondering.

sheri



Sheri nothing i see currently......but, things can change fast right now!






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269. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:11 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
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270. StAugustineFL 22:11 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting hurricanehunter27:


He is right tommorow has all the right stuff for a major outbreak. Right now though a chaser named lance ferguson has a low roatating wall cloud Link down below

Link


I wasn't implying he was wrong. Only quoting another source that tomorrow is shaping up to be a PDS.
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271. BenBIogger 22:16 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
5-Day SST Change

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272. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:16 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
2011 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic


92L.INVEST


East Pacific


90E.INVEST


Central Pacific




West Pacific


04W.SONGDA


Indian Ocean




Southern Hem.


Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40406
273. hurricanehunter27 22:18 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting StAugustineFL:


I wasn't implying he was wrong. Only quoting another source that tomorrow is shaping up to be a PDS.

I know i was just really trying to post the link to the chaser =)
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3432
274. LS1redline 22:19 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Imagine this scene...chickens everywhere...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TORNADO CORTLAND 38.97N 85.96W
05/23/2011 JACKSON IN FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

REPORT OF A POULTRY BARN DESTROYED NEAR CORTLAND.

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275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:20 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
XX/INV/92L
MARK
27.85N/54.65W
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40406
276. catastropheadjuster 22:20 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting TampaSpin:



Sheri nothing i see currently......but, things can change fast right now!








TAMPAPIN & emcf30 thank you very much for taking time and tell me.

sheri
Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556
277. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:23 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
XX/INV/90E
MARK
10.55N/96.88W
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40406
278. Tropicsweatherpr 22:24 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Skyepony, the CFS model in the corrected version is a little more away from the 0.5 line in the latest update.

Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 8114
279. VAstorms 22:31 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting TampaTom:


And, that was the evacuation after the storm hit... The last thing they wanted to do was send folks outside during the storms and put them on the road.


I thought that might be the case. If only 4 people died in there, that is amazing. Not for them of course but looking at the devastation at that building.
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280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:33 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
ACCN10 CWTO 232002
Forecast of thunderstorm potential for the province of Ontario
Issued by Environment Canada at 4:02 PM EDT Monday 23 May 2011
The next statement will be issued at 4.00 AM Tuesday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Forecast of thunderstorm potential.

Tonight..There is a slight to moderate risk of severe thunderstorms
over Southern Ontario this evening with the passage of a strong cold
front and associated upper level jetstream. The moderate risk is
expected to be confined to Southwestern Ontario and east of Lake
Huron. Thunderstorms in the risk area have the potential to produce
brief damaging wind gusts in excess of 100 km/h. There is also a
lesser threat of large hail of 2 to 4 cm and an even smaller risk of
a tornado. Additionally many portions of Eastern and Central Ontario
will experience isolated thunderstorms capable of producing small
hail and brief wind gusts to 70 km/h. Thunderstorms activity is
expected to weaken or move out of all regions of Ontario by shortly
after midnight.
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40406
281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:35 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40406
283. HurricaneDean07 22:48 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Active Tropics Day I See, Invest 90E, Invest 92L, And TS Songda...
90E 20% Chance Of Formation, I say in it's Lifespan: 20%(Unless Wind Shear Becomes Favorable)
92L 20% Chance Of Formation, I say in it's Lifespan: 50%(An Anticyclone is forming over the system causing wind shear to drop dramtically,30 knots, making it favorable for the surface low, The wind shear is high around 200 miles away all around, but is not seriously directly impacting the system) This is why you're seeing some convection beginning to form near the surface low. It has a long way to go, but with low steering currents for a few days, and low shear, it will be just wobbling around in the sub-tropics all week.
I'll Be Posting A New Blog Later On This Afternoon...
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284. VAstorms 22:50 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
There looks to be some super cells forming in Oklahoma and along the Oklahoma Missouri border right now. Looks like a hook echo in the storm west of Tulsa.
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286. emcf30 22:57 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
555 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 553 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF FAIRFAX...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.
Member Since: 7 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926
287. Ameister12 23:01 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Tornado warned storm heading toward my direction. It's over Harrison right now.
Member Since: 9 août 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3481
288. HurricaneDean07 23:09 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting alfabob:
90E has anti-cyclone and 5kt shear, I would give it 50% chance for TS over 48 hours.
More Like 30% lack good organization, and good structure
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289. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:10 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
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290. emcf30 23:14 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Kim Twister Blackhurst
stormchaser
severestudios It never stops... just heard on scanner in Joplin, MO, a police officer doing recovery work was struck by lightning. #joplin #tornado it never stops
May 23 2011, 17:32

TWC just reported this also. Additional it was stated the elements are coming together for a outbreak tomorrow similar to April 27. WOW
Member Since: 7 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926
291. Neapolitan 23:18 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
If you look really closely, you may be able to notice that this year is running just 500 tornadoes above average. Of course, these numbers are through yesterday, so don't show today's storms--or, obviously, tomorrow's expected ones.

Gonna need to raise the ceiling...

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
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292. Dazee69 23:19 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
This is so devistating ... I was n tears this morning when I heard about it ... and there was more rought seas ahead
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293. emcf30 23:19 GMT le 23 mai 2011    

Tornado Warned cell moving towards Cleveland suburbs
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294. Ameister12 23:23 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
TORNADO WARNING
OHC017-025-061-165-240000-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0043.110523T2316Z-110524T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN CLERMONT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

* AT 712 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH
COLLEGE HILL......MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. IN ADDITION TO THE
TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WYOMING...
SPRINGDALE...
READING...
DEER PARK...
MADEIRA...
SHARONVILLE...
BLUE ASH...
MONTGOMERY...
LOVELAND...
MASON...
LEBANON...
MORROW...

IN ADDITION...GOLF MANOR...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...LOCKLAND...WOODLAWN...
LINCOLN HEIGHTS...AMBERLEY...GLENDALE AND SILVERTON ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 42...
I-75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 27...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...FUNNEL CLOUDS...STRONG WINDS OR HAIL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 8455 3949 8399 3926 8400 3925 8399
3919 8400 3916 8457
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 252DEG 42KT 3923 8451

$$

HATZOS

It's gonna head right over me. Sirens are going off.
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295. Dazee69 23:24 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
If you look really closely, you may be able to notice that this year is running just 500 tornadoes above average. Of course, these numbers are through yesterday, so don't show today's storms--or, obviously, tomorrow's expected ones.

Gonna need to raise the ceiling...
U dont need to look THAT hard ... Its unbelievable!
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296. Dazee69 23:28 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Ameister12 ... Take cover ...B safe ... Im south Dayton ... Ill b praying
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297. presslord 23:28 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
FEMA guy in Joplin just gave an '800' # ...on television...for people to call for help...I'm sure folks are just sittin' around, watchin' the tube wonderin' who they can call...can't imagine cell service would have been interrupted by this...or TV reception...Brilliant communication strategy FEMA!!!
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298. presslord 23:33 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting presslord:
FEMA guy in Joplin just gave an '800' # ...on television...for people to call for help...I'm sure folks are just sittin' around, watchin' the tube wonderin' who they can call...can't imagine cell service would have been interrupted by this...or TV reception...Brilliant communication strategy FEMA!!!


kinda reminds me of having Braille keypads on the drive through ATM...
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299. TomTaylor 23:34 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Quoting alfabob:
90E has anti-cyclone and 5kt shear, I would give it 50% chance for TS over 48 hours.
Maybe a 40-50% of ever developing.

But in the next 48 hrs, I'd have to agree with the NWS with the 20%
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300. Patrap 23:34 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
Missouri tornadoes: Death toll climbs to 116; FEMA moves to respond
By Ed O'Keefe



Updated 4:45 p.m. EDT:

President Obama has ordered a full-scale federal response to deadly tornadoes that struck Missouri on Sunday night.

FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate is traveling to Missouri on Monday to begin assessing what might be needed from the federal government.

At least 116 people are dead in the town of Joplin, where homes and hospitals were damaged by storms that ripped through the town Sunday night. Government forecasters said Monday that the Joplin, Mo., tornado is the deadliest U.S. twister on record since 1953
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301. ncstorm 23:35 GMT le 23 mai 2011    
two police officers struck by lightening in Joplin..conditions are terrible for rescue efforts..
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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