The tornado onslaught of 2011 continued over the Midwest yesterday, as dozens of tornadoes touched down, primarily in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Arkansas. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 81 preliminary reports of tornadoes in eleven states. Even California got into the action, with a tornado near Chico causing minor damage. Mercifully, no deaths were reported from yesterday's tornadoes. Too many thunderstorms formed too close to each other to allow strong or violent tornadoes to grow, as the many thunderstorms interfered with each others' organization. The preliminary tornado count for the 5-day outbreak that began Saturday is 243. Preliminary tornado reports are an overestimate, since some storms get counted multiple times. These over-counts were 35% - 40% in the case of the April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak and April 25 - 28 Super outbreak, so we can expect that the May 21 - 25, 2011 outbreak will end up with close to 150 tornadoes. This would rank as the third largest tornado outbreak in history, giving 2011 the three largest tornado outbreaks of all-time. Prior to 2011, NOAA rated the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak as the largest tornado outbreak of all-time, with 148 tornadoes. According to a list of tornado outbreaks maintained by Wikipedia, only two other tornado outbreaks have had as many as 150 twisters prior to 2011--the May 2004 outbreak (385), and the May 2003 outbreak (401). However, these outbreaks occurred over an eight-day and eleven-day period, respectively, and were not due to a single storm system.
Figure 1. Satellite image taken at 23:32 UTC (7:32pm EDT) May 25, 2011, showing a line of tornadic thunderstorms over the Midwest. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.
Figure 2. Tornado near Fariview, Oklahoma, on May 24, 2011. Image credit: Mike Theiss, www.ExtremeNature.com.
Video 1. "We are in the tornado!" is all this poor guy caught in a car during a tornado can say, while buildings fly apart around him. He is very lucky to have survived. Video shot in Navarro County, Texas on May 24, 2011.
The death toll from Tuesday's tornadoes over Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kansas is now 16, which would bring the death toll from this year's tornadoes to 506, according to yesterday's NOAA tornado statistic update. This makes 2011 the deadliest year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1953, when 519 people died. That year, three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)
Only a "Slight Risk" day for severe weather today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of twenty states, from Alabama to Vermont, in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather potential. The slow-moving low pressure system responsible for all the tornado activity this week is weakening, and the primary severe weather threat today is from large hail and damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds. However, there are still likely to be tornadoes today, and I expect we'll see a dozen or so twisters touch down from some of the stronger thunderstorms that develop.
Figure 3. Severe weather threat for Wednesday, May 25, 2011.
Links
Here is an interactive hi-res satellite image showing Joplin before and after the tornado. Some non-interactive images are here.
The New York Times has an interactive tornado fatality map showing how this year's killer tornadoes have mostly clustered over the Southeast U.S., with the glaring exception of the Joplin, Missouri tornado.
NOAA's Visualization Laboratory has an impressive animation of the satellite imagery during the month of April, showing the locations of all the tornadoes as they happened.
Figure 4. Satellite image of Super Typhoon Songda.
Super Typhoon Songda the first Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2011
The first typhoon of 2011 is also the globe's first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Super Typhoon Songda intensified dramatically over the past 24 hours in an environment of light wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 30°C, to reach Category 5 status with top sustained winds of 160 mph. Tropical Cyclone Yasi, which devastated Queensland, Australia in early February, was the globe's previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2011, with 155 mph winds.
Fortunately, Songda is expected to miss making a direct hit on the Philippines, though evacuations have been ordered in low-lying areas. Satellite-estimated rainfall for the coming 24-hour period is predicted to be less than 4 inches along the northeast coast of the Philippines' Luzon Island, which should not cause major flooding problems. Songda is expected to turn northwards and threaten the island of Okinawa on Saturday. Sea surface temperatures decline rapidly north of the Philippines, and Songda is expected to weaken significantly before reaching Okinawa, where sea surface temperatures are approximately 26°C. Wind shear will also increase to high levels by Saturday, and Songda should be at most a Category 2 typhoon by the time it reaches Okinawa.
Jeff Masters
Tornado Warning for us. It went just past us, was beautiful to watch.
First round of large hail.
I was west bound I 74 when I drove into this storm. They said On the radio it was a tornado on the ground.
Joplin 5/22/11 EF5 aftermath (
N0RCO)
I went to joplin to look at the destruction this EF5 tornado did. Absolutely devastating in my opinion!
I caught this totally by accident. I was trying to take a picture of the cloud formation and this flashed right as I took the picture. Unbelievable luck!!
View of sky before storm, May 25, 2011 Indianapolis
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None of them...I think Arlene will develop in the SW Caribbean later on next week with the lowering pressures.
:)
WUUS54 KLIX 262316
SVRLIX
LAC071-103-262345-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0094.110526T2316Z-110526T2345Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
616 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF EDEN ISLE...
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT
* AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR EDEN ISLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HALF DOLLAR SIZE
HAIL WAS OBSERVED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
SLIDELL AT 605 PM.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
CATHERINE
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
That sounds like a fair bet. I also think it'll form in the W or SW Caribbean and make its way either towards Cuba or Yucatan and possibly into the GOM...kinda like Arlene of '05. Maybe it's a deja-vu, LOL.
AS I SUSPECTED TYHOON SONGDA CONTINUED TO RAMP UP THE CIRCULATION TO CAT 5(SUPER TYPHOON STATUS) MAKING IT THE FIRST CAT 5 OF THE SEASON FOR 2011.
FORECAST TO STAY A FISH UNTIL IT HITS THE JAPANESE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK AS A CAT2 OR CAT3 TYHOON WHICH STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DO MAJOR DAMAGE
ALL SHIPPING IN THE AREA IS AT RISK WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ESTIMATED AT 60FT AROUND THE EYE.WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 195MPH AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 160-170MPH
THE AWESOME POWER OF NATURE UNLEASHED.
At least, Now, GFS is showing a system developing N of RD and moving NE into the Atlantic... Previously it was developing it S of Jamaica...
So I will say C (Poll)
I don't, and haven't, seen anything on the GFS suggestive of tropical cyclogenesis in that region of the Caribbean over the last several days.
EDIT: I realize now you said the southwest Caribbean, which is possible. I initially misread that as the western Caribbean. My bad.
NGP
8 N Covington [St. Tammany Co, LA] fire dept/rescue reports FUNNEL CLOUD at 02:54 PM CDT -- funnel cloud spotted near lee rd about 8 miles north of covington
8 W Sun [St. Tammany Co, LA] law enforcement reports TORNADO at 04:45 PM CDT -- a tornado produced unknown damage in the vicinity of highway 40 and birtrue road. law enforcement is investigating
Pea-sized hail on I-12 just over an hour ago.
THe 18z says it begins to intensify at that position but why with all the low sst and high shear its still predicting for that same area of intensification? I will wait for the 00Z. One thing is certain though, all the models are agreeing on something starting south of Jamaica and trailing up the eastern seaboard.
Seems like cyclogenesis will be in that area...It's been like that for days and now other models agree... also Levi's analysis.... Link
I would laugh, I would cry, I would lay on the ground and roll in the puddles. Please Please Please send rain to Florida.
LoL eastern seaboard starting at South Carolina. Even though the new run shows some rain over Florida.
Sorry. Didn't mean to make anyone sad. The Mom and three little ones took shelter in their bath tub, but the storm was stronger than their home.
I'll sign that prayer. I'll probably get stoned out of the blog for saying this, but I'm hoping for a slow Atlantic H season.
Barefoot- the video was really sad, too. At least mom and unborn are still doing ok.
The meteorology of it also makes sense, which supports this idea. The monster ridge building northeast over the eastern U.S. while cold pockets aloft retrograde westward south of it is a good setup for ventilation of the western Caribbean. We will have to monitor this region for potential trouble.
20" below normal. We need it soooooooo bad.
Barefoot- the video was really sad, too. At least mom and unborn are still doing ok.
Just one of many sad storm stories, but one that touched my heart. Yes, that is a positive. Thanks.
Now I be gone. Have a nice evening, everyone.
Thanks Levi. Any chance that the steering pattern will bring relief to FL? Or is simply too early to tell?
Central Floridians at this hour.
It's certainly a possibility, and climatology favors such systems being brought north, but it will depend on the exact location of the upper low steering it at the time. Hopefully it delivers some rain for you guys.
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP ALONG 12N SAT. BROAD LOW PRES IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE TO PRODUCE AN
ELONGATED BAND OF STRONG WINDS FROM THE E CENTRAL TO NW PORTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SE
CARIBBEAN FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THEN MOVE MORE NW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH
TUE.
That paragraph says nothing about tropical development.
A broad Low does not mean that development is likely.
But keep positive.....
Hi Levi
The GFS and the ECMWF have been all over the SW Caribbean for development around the 1st to the 4th June like white on rice. The timeline has continued to shorten with each run which now raises a greater probabiltiy for development. Of course,that doesn't mean it will happen but the GFS in particular exhibited above average skill last year in the 7 to 10 day range which was impressive.
Let's see how it does this year.
Quoting Lloyd in Dumb and Dumber, "So you're telling me there's a chance."
St. Tammany Parish storm destroys 4 houses, injures 5 people
Published: Thursday, May 26, 2011, 7:49 PM
At least four houses were destroyed and five people suffered minor injuries as a flurry of harsh thunderstorms pummeled St. Tammany Parish Thursday afternoon.
I don't think Dr. Masters is using the 6 hour time frame lull in his definition of "outbreaks", as the dates he has listed for outbreaks have all had six hour lulls with no activity. All 3 "outbreaks" this year have had such lulls, not every night but most night/mornings have had breaks. I think he is using the 10 tornadoes/day all part of the same synoptic system. But Dr. Masters can inform what
definition he is using.
The six hour lulls are based on research on the SPC website and the listed time of tornadoes during that time frame.
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