Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

An early start to hurricane season?
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:12 GMT le 31 mai 2011 +7
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Wednesday, June 1, but the Caribbean is already showing signs of the change of seasons. Moisture and heavy thunderstorm activity have increased in the region between Central America and Jamaica in recent days, and rainfall amounts of 1 - 2 inches have been common over the past three days over Cuba, Hispaniola, and much of Central America. The subtropical jet stream has been bringing high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots over the Caribbean the past week, but this shear has fallen to 20 - 40 knots this morning, and is predicted to fall below 20 knots by Thursday. All of the computer models predict that an area of low pressure will form in the region between Jamaica and Honduras by Thursday. This low will have the potential to develop into a tropical depression late this week. There is some dry air over the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula that may retard the process, but a surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave currently passing through the Lesser Antilles may counteract this, when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Thursday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Some recent runs of the NOGPAS model have predicted development of a tropical depression by late this week, potentially affecting Jamaica and Eastern Cuba. The other models have not been as gung-ho, but have been showing the potential for a strong tropical disturbance with very heavy rains forming late this week. In any case, residents of Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them Thursday through Saturday this week.


Figure 1. Total precipitable water (a measure of how much rain would fall if we condensed all the water vapor present) for May 31, 2011 at 7am EDT. Plentiful water vapor in the SW Caribbean would create about 2 inches of rain (50 mm, orange colors) if it were all condensed out. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Receipt did not travel 525 miles from Joplin tornado
The May 22 EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin, Missouri did not set a new record for longest transport of debris by a tornado. According to MSNBC, a couple living in Royal Center, Indiana, in North Central Indiana, 525 miles from Joplin, found a receipt from the Joplin Tire store three days after the tornado hit Joplin. However, a press release from Purdue University clarified that the receipt did not arrive via the tornado, but had been left behind by a relative that had visited Joplin before the tornado. The longest distance recorded for debris from a storm was a cancelled check that traveled 210 miles after the 1915 tornado in Great Bend, Kansas.

The death toll from the May 22, 2011 tornado in Joplin, Missouri is 139, although there is still considerable uncertainty about this number. The Joplin tornado is the 8th deadliest in U.S. history, and the most deadly since the 1947 Woodward, Oklahoma twister that killed 181 people. The tornado season of 2011 now has approximately 520 deaths, which would make it the deadliest tornado season since 1936, according to statistics compiled by NOAA. In the 1936 tornado season 552 people died, mostly because of violent tornadoes that hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.)


Figure 2. Satellite image taken at 23:45 UTC (7:45pm EDT) May 22, 2011, showing the line of tornadic thunderstorms that spawned the Joplin tornado. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Laboratory.

Jeff Masters
Joplin, MO (Portlight)
Joplin, MO
Categories: Tornado Hurricane
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851. FLWeatherFreak91 22:13 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It does look impressive, although its circulation...not so much. It doesn't have enough time to become anything, though if it were stationary, it may be a different story.
Its surface circulation is well defined on radar
Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461
852. FrankZapper 22:13 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting PurpleDrank:
will this hurricane hit New Orleans?
What?
Member Since: 26 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
853. cyclonekid 22:14 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Uh-Uh, it says EST.
I know; but it's the same as the 2 and 8 EDT. Just putting it out there. Daylight Savings Time is a pain LOL.
Member Since: 14 juillet 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1629
854. Grothar 22:14 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
The Colonial.



What's the symbol for big smile.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525
855. MrstormX 22:14 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I've never heard of a "blolb" before, lol.


lol my bad
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856. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:15 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Its surface circulation is well defined on radar


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857. Patrap 22:15 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
One can get a Hurricane at Pat O'briens anytime..

Best to tip though.


For the "Rum" effect
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858. HurricaneSwirl 22:15 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When you click on the map on the NHC page, it brings this at the top...

"This product is updated at approximately 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant."

Whether it is 1AM/2AM, 7AM/8AM, 1PM/2PM, and 7PM/8PM is beyond me...I'm just going what it says on their page.


Yeah, strange that they'd just randomly change it like that. Every other year it has been 2 and 8 in the beginning, then 1 and 7 after the daylight saving time switch. This year we might just go 1 and 7 the whole way through?
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859. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:16 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


Come on, I get a kick out of it if we can get a few arrrrrrrrrgs out of you.
ok you two step away from the walkers and put down them keyboards
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40495
860. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:16 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting cyclonekid:
I know; but it's the same as the 2 and 8 EDT. Just putting it out there. Daylight Savings Time is a pain LOL.


I fixed it, I thought you said something else for a sec. :P
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861. WeatherNerdPR 22:16 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting MrstormX:


lol my bad

No problem, ;)
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862. Grothar 22:16 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I've never heard of a "blolb" before, lol.


Where do you think Tlulips come from??
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525
863. presslord 22:17 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
One can get a Hurricane at Pat O'briens anytime..

Best to tip though.


For the "Rum" effect


somewhere there is a photo of me with one at the 1980 Sugar Bowl...I think my mother keeps it hidden in my "Baby Book"
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377
864. kimoskee 22:17 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Forgot to post this yesterday.

Met Service of Jamaica
NEWS RELEASE
May 30, 2011 at 5:00 p.m.

*** INCREASE IN RAINFALL EXPECTED TO MARK THE START OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ***


An Area of Low Pressure is developing over the Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica. This system is expected to bring an increase in rainfall activity in the coming days with some increase in intensity as of Thursday.

Expect periods of showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, to affect most parishes starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend.

There is a possibility that this system could result in some flash flooding, however, the Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

kjg
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865. HurricaneSwirl 22:17 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
.
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866. Patrap 22:17 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Did Georgia Win?

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867. emcf30 22:17 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Just saw this on the local news. I will be definitely downloading this tomorrow at 10 am when it comes out. It will be capable of real time location based weather warnings, maps of damage areas, shelter info, evacuation routes, electrical outages, street light failures and ect. Every community need to implement something like this

Orange Co. Smartphone App Is Lifeline During Storms

Posted: 4:41 pm EDT May 31, 2011Updated: 5:04 pm EDT May 31, 2011
ORANGE COUNTY, Fla. -- Orange County is hoping iPhones and iPads will protect and help its residents in the event of a hurricane in the Summer of 2011.

WFTV learned that Orange County is the first government in the nation to design an application (app) for natural disasters. So, when your power goes out and the weather radio isn’t working, Mayor Teresa Jacobs said the free app will be your lifeline during a storm. Officials confirmed that when hurricanes Charlie, Jean and Frances hit Orange County in 2004, some people didn't have power for weeks. Officials said that made it difficult to get vital information to the public.
Link
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868. Chucktown 22:18 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting presslord:


if somethin' happens you can come out to our place at Folly...I'll leave the key under the mat....the booze will be on top of the fridge...


Brown Liquor = Captain Morgan
Clear = Belvidere
Beer = Yuengling

Just sayin !! LOL !!
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869. presslord 22:18 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting presslord:


somewhere there is a photo of me with one at the 1980 Sugar Bowl...I think my mother keeps it hidden in my "Baby Book"


make that '81
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870. kimoskee 22:18 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Met Service of Jamaica

May 31, 2011 at 4:00 p.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical wave passing south of Jamaica will interact with Low pressure over southwestern Caribbean.

Comment
An Area of Low Pressure is developing over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea, south of Jamaica.This system will continue
to produce rainfall activity in the coming days but
especially on Thursday.


24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight… Lingering showers especially across eastern parishes.
Tomorrow… Cloudy with periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms across most parishes.

3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Thu/Fri… outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms across
most parishes.
Sat...Partly cloudy, afternoon showers and thunderstorms
across much of the island

Regionally… Area of Low Pressure over the southwestern Caribbean.
High Pressure ridge north of the Caribbean.





pef
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871. Patrap 22:19 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Rum will do dat wit dates,,LoL
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872. aquak9 22:19 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
I think it's gone?
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007
874. presslord 22:21 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
Did Georgia Win?




ya...we beat some Catholic school from Indiana...
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875. Hurricanes12 22:24 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
That blog[EDIT: Blob LOL] does look amusing having been on water for only today.

Our AOI seems to be getting better defined as well.

Only time will tell how things will play out.
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876. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:24 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 PM EDT Tuesday 31 May 2011
Condition: Partly Cloudy
Pressure: 30.04 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 6

Temperature: 84.4°F
Dewpoint: 69.8°F
Humidity: 62 %
Wind: S 11 gust 17 mph
Humidex: 100
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877. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:24 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
I think it's gone?


possibly
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878. presslord 22:24 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
I think it's gone?


it's never really 'gone'
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879. Patrap 22:25 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Jan 81,,was still mourning John Lennon's sudden passing while I was in Cali @ El Toro, MCAS.


Wouldnt serve with Grothar till 84 though..they kept us 2 seperated by continents still back then.
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880. PlazaRed 22:25 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


What's the symbol for big smile.


These are about the best one I can come up with on the standard keyboard:-

:} :] :)

Any other ideas please post for the interest meter.
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881. NRAamy 22:25 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
nope nope nope...
Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31937
882. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:25 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting Hurricanes12:
That blog does look amusing having been on water for only today.

Our AOI seems to be getting better defined as well.

Only time will tell how things will play out.


That blog? There's a blob on water? I wanna see!
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25284
883. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:26 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting NRAamy:
nope nope nope...
Quoting aquak9:
I think it's gone?


Maybe it isn't gone then?
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25284
884. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:26 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
its a little warm today
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40495
885. taco2me61 22:26 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok you two step away from the walkers and put down them keyboards


blahahahahahahaha

Now thats "Funny"

Taco :o)
Member Since: 7 juillet 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763
886. presslord 22:27 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
Jan 81,,was still mourning John Lennon's sudden passing while I was in Cali @ El Toro, MCAS.


Wouldnt serve with Grothar till 84 though..they kept us 2 seperated by continents still back then.


that's Ok, dude...I had the 'drinkin' in NOLA' covered for ya...
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377
888. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:30 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting GoldCoast2011:
Can someone please post the 18z-GFS run? BTW, where's Levi at? I miss him, =(. Did the Aquack thing scare him, Gosh, I'd hope not, =).


Not if you keep being as rude and disrespectful as you are now.

I'd put you on ignore but it wouldn't do any good, because you'd just get banned and make a new handle tomorrow.
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25284
889. Patrap 22:31 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
891. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:32 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
AOI/XX/XXL
MARK
13.01N/80.03W


2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
91W.INVEST
90W.INVEST

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere

Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Tue, May 31, 2011.

As of Tue, 31 May 2011 23:31:01 GMT
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40495
892. afj3 22:33 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Hi All! Anyone what number that system will get if it's assigned an Invest?
Member Since: 10 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 337
893. aquak9 22:33 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
because you'd just get banned and make a new handle tomorrow.

naw...he always keeps about three new handles on hand. Honest. I've seen'm use three handles in one day- bam bam bam- just like that.

Just like Whack-a-Mole.
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007
894. presslord 22:33 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
amy

euthanize me- PLEASE


All ya ever hear about is youth in Asia!!! What about the youth in this country?!?!?!
Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377
895. FrankZapper 22:34 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting Patrap:
One can get a Hurricane at Pat O'briens anytime..

Best to tip though.


For the "Rum" effect
And you can find Purple Drank in the lower 9th
Member Since: 26 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
896. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:34 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting afj3:
Hi All! Anyone what number that system will get if it's assigned an Invest?
93L
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40495
897. emcf30 22:34 GMT le 31 mai 2011    


The BLOB, according to Tom Terry, WFTV Met, states this feature will be off the coast in the Area of Palm Coast, Fl in the morning as a weaking low in the morning. Should bring some rain to the area. Like he said, looks like a little cotton ball
Member Since: 7 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926
898. afj3 22:34 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
93L

Thanks!
Member Since: 10 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 337
899. TropicalAnalystwx13 22:34 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting afj3:
Hi All! Anyone what number that system will get if it's assigned an Invest?

93L
Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25284
900. Grothar 22:34 GMT le 31 mai 2011    
Quoting PlazaRed:


These are about the best one I can come up with on the standard keyboard:-

:} :] :)

Any other ideas please post for the interest meter.



Thanks, Plaza

Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19525

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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