Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed
The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.
Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.
Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:
1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)
2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)
3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)
4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)
5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)
Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:
- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.
- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.
- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.
- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.
- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.
- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.
- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.
- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.
- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.
- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)
Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)
Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.
Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:
1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)
Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.
The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.
I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.
Jeff Masters
Here it is turning into a monster.
Reader Comments
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Here's the problem:
Access forbidden!
You don't have permission to access the requested object. It is either read-protected or not readable by the server.
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Error 403
euler.atmos.colostate.edu
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora)
Thats why its there.
Well, it made it through today's.
I believe recon. is scheduled to go out tomorrow. That should be interesting should it materialize.
This is so ironic reed, listen to this.
Tropical storm Arlene in 2005, before it hit florida, most of the convection was concentrated on the eastern side, and in 94L, the convection is concentrated in the eastern end, and it could become Arlene.
Do you think a TD is possible by Sunday, based on the rate it is organizing.
Dry air not too far away, but its evidently beginning to draw in moisture from south and central america so we will see how that goes. The anticyclone has shown just what it can do for a system in terms of organisation, its also proven why its classified as fundamental in any forecast for RI of a system. This has a shot at RI, but it needs to pump that dry air away and the anticyclone needs to open a bit more to make the conditions absolutely perfect for any type of RI.
This may take time so I am putting a 24hr time limit for things to start getting heated with this system if conditions continue in the way they are now.
See #1053
Hey there DAM...good to see ya :)
I've seen otherwise healthy looking systems suddenly sputter during the diurnal minimum. Weak systems are highly susceptible to it.
It is possible recon will go out, but I have my doubts that they will find a tropical depression. I just don't see the aforementioned subsidence abating quick enough to allow for that. But that is just my opinion.
20% at 2PM
30% at 8PM
My Forecast:
40 to 50% at 2AM
50% at 8AM
60% at 2PM
70% at 8PM
Same here, Kori. Way too early in the Season to get cross-threaded over the little stuff!
But once 94L develops a solid structure (like maybe a TS) it can fend off the dry air without too much problem.
I'm certainly not saying they will find a TD. But they will GREATLY help for eventual forecasts and the current structure of the system should they go out tomorrow if the situation warrants.
We are still at the cyclogenisis stage here on this this one....RI does not come into play until we have an actual tropical storm.........
Hey EYES, stayin' dry?
They probably won't find a TD, but come sunday when the wave comes in and helps out 94L with the convection, I think we should be seeing TD by then, if not, Monday.
Click the image button then put the link in the spaces in the prompt.
Press ok.
Then preview to test.
It's ok if the image is too big, it can resize itself.
Which is why I gave it 24hrs b4 any chance of RI can come to fruition
Night time is the worst time for trying to figure out what a tropical system is doing. IR imagery is notoriously unreliable at night save and except where you have a very powerful hurricane and the eye is clearly visible.
AVN imagery suggests a motion to the East for 94L very slowly but the surface low is probably displaced to the West of the high cloud deck. The 850 vort itself is off to the WSW of where the NHC has the surface feature.
Moral of the story is that with these early disorganized systems things are rarely what they seem at night.
To make an active link, click the Link button above the comment box, then paste the link there.
Great points, as usual, K..............
That, my friend, I do not dispute.
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on Fri, Jun 03, 2011.
As of Sat, 04 Jun 2011 02:45:01 GMT
2011 Storms
All Active Year
Atlantic
94L.INVEST
93L.INVEST
East Pacific
Central Pacific
West Pacific
92W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
98A.INVEST
Southern Hemisphere
Take a look and compare to the floater
Buoy at 15 N and 75 W. The low is still well West of there, hence the wind direction we see at the buoy.
Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSW ( 213 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.86 in
Actually could use some precip....but feel guilty just saying that as others need it so much more.. now it's the heat thats getting to me....breaking records....and it's only first of June...air conditioner is in over-time....dread to see the electric bill....:]
It's a jpeg, without server access issues.
03/2345 UTC 16.3N 77.9W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic
Ditto all around! Seems to be getting hotter earlier the past few years.
Here you go Joe. At least I got the link for you. It is a pretty good model site. Never saw it before. Just click on it and have fun.
Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST FRI JUN 3 2011
.UPDATE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATE THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS KEEPING VERY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. TROUGHING WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST OF THIS AND OVER HISPANIOLA...KEEPING AREAS OF HIGH
HUMIDITY OVER PUERTO RICO...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A DEEP
POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SUSTAIN GOOD
VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAT WILL HELP TO GENERATE AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL NOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MOST FLOODING LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS...HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ARE BECOMING
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH SATURATED SOILS AND ABOVE
NORMAL STREAM AND RIVER FLOW DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAINS OVER THE
PAST FEW WEEKS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE COMING DAYS WILL
ONLY AGGRAVATE THIS SITUATION. WHILE ALL AREAS ARE AT RISK OF
EXPERIENCING SOME FLOODING AREAS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
ARE AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
DUE TO THE PRESENT STATE OF THE SOIL CONDITIONS.
Check Yall Out Tommorow..........WW
There, the pro shows you how. Now - change 'Link' to something meaningful, Gro ;-)
Dear Lord, Look who is back!! How you doing. Dont? We have been getting bands of rain every few minutes here in Fort Lauderdale. Even the frogs have been croaking. Either that, or my knees are really going.
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