Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed
The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.
Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.
Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:
1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)
2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)
3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)
4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)
5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)
Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:
- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.
- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.
- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.
- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.
- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.
- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.
- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.
- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.
- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.
- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)
Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)
Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.
Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:
1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)
Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.
The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.
I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.
Jeff Masters
Here it is turning into a monster.
Reader Comments
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I wish that big alien fly would move out of the way.
Looks like a group of disorganized convection.
Western Atlantic Rainbow Loop
wvloopLink
94L's future looks promising, despite the grimness it is experiencing at the time being.
WVLoop
I have to agree with you, kinda looks like a powder keg down to the low center.
anyway, night all.
I hope that screwball headed for the west coast does not cause more havoc in states already under duress.
Happy Sunday afternoon to you. Nice and fine where you are?
I don't know if the convergence model will show on this, but the energy fueling this appears to be coming from the South, but it is due to the upper atmospheric conditions in the North. Even though this is not a well-formed system, it is typical of early season storms. If you can see where the invest I is, the main flare-up should be the Northeast of this tonight. We will have to see.
Didn't know mangoes grew that far north.
I see no life for 94, and 93 was just blatantly "strange". This jet stream coming across the Atlantic, did I catch the term "Subtropical Jet Stream" correctly, and just when do we see that changing course?
hey you guys are awesome btw, well most of you that is.
H.
Interesting to note the development of lower level convergence over the NW Caribbean and the subsequent flaring of convection beginning off the Honduras/Nicaragua coast tonight. Could indicate that dry air may be lessening in the area.
Not to mention it is sucking in some energy from South America. Folks, this thing is nowhere near done yet.
So you call what cchs said, wishcasting?
Congrats, Let's keep it this way. Going for a little walk to stretch my back and soak up some of this winter sun.
lol
LOL!!!! LMAO!!!!! ROTFL!!
Maybe that's the reason why one shouldn't drink mango juice from Canada. I have a big glass of OJ in front of me. Australian grown of course.
You know something? Saying stupid stuff like that is the best way to get yourself on a lot of peoples bad side. I've been on here for 6 years nearly, I've seen wishcasting and there hasn't been any wishcasting. If anything, this thing developing will/would have been good and saved a lot of headaches because Florida needs rain and needs it fast because our rainy season isn't starting, period and its causing a lot of extra headaches for a lot of people in my area. Lordy son, LOL.
I think he's a troll teddy.
HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
2345 UTC SAT JUN 04 2011
GALE WARNING
.LOW 37N126W 997 MB DRIFTING SE. WITHIN 120 NM NE...240 NM S AND
420 NM W QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 240 NM NE AND E SEMICIRCLES AND FROM 32N TO 46N BETWEEN
126W AND 136W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N126W 1010 MB. FROM 30N TO 37N BETWEEN
122W AND 136W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED WITH CONDITIONS DIMINISHED.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
555 PM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011
...DISCUSSION...A VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BOTTOMED OUT LAST
NIGHT AROUND 995 MB OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND
RETROGRADED BACK UNDER ITS PARENT STATIONARY UPPER LOW. THE
SURFACE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND 36.8N 126.4W. IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND DISSIPATE. AT THE
SAME TIME THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE PICKED UP BY AN ADVANCING
TROUGH AND PULLED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. VORTICITY PINWHEELING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS TRIGGERED BY A QUICKLY
ADVANCING TROUGH FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SECOND UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...
This has a 30% chance? It looks worse than 93l imo, and this is the higher color intensity ir image.
RGB Floater Imagery
A lot of states are in a drought but they aint "wishing" for a hurricane to hit them..if that aint wishcasting,then what is..the "rain" excuse is getting very tired..just call it what it is..a lot of people like the thrill of the storm until the power wont come back on, heat kicking their butt and food scarce...not trying to start an argument eithier
94L would have been nothing but a weak TS in the GOMEX. Barry and Alberto where like this and also brought much needed rains. Even Fay in 2008 had great benefits towards Florida.
I've been nailed by hurricanes, I don't want that on anyone but I was really hoping for a weak TS or at least the rainy season to kick off, mind you I could do without the lightning and the hail.
He is. He accused me of being one the other night, and i've been on for over 2 1/2 years and he's been on for just days. Great justification for me being a troll. /sarcasm
Rain excuse??? I've got a wildfire one city over and heading this way. It's not an excuse, it's a fact. If you don't like it, don't read the blog.
You got good eyes. Most people didn't notice that. I think Chiclit may have seen it earlier too. Not saying that this will be a monster, but that is exactly what is happening. Think a lot of people missed this. That ridge to the north is strong though, but the flare-up of convection is starting.
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