Caribbean disturbance slow to develop; 5 EF-5 tornadoes this year confirmed
The tropical disturbance (Invest 93L) that crossed over Florida on Wednesday, bringing welcome rains of 1 - 3 inches, is now a naked swirl of low clouds over the central Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry air associated with an upper level low pressure system, and this dry air is discouraging development. 93L is also moving into a region of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, and NHC is giving 93L a 0% chance of developing into a tropical depression before the storm makes landfall in Mexico south of Brownsville on Saturday. There are a few heavy thunderstorms trying to fire up near the center of 93L's fairly well-formed circulation, but I don't think this storm is going to bring more than 1 - 2 inches of rain to the coast on Saturday.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the Central Caribbean disturbance.
Central Caribbean disturbance 94L
Disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity continues in the region between Central America and Jamaica. Wind shear has fallen to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is predicted to continue to fall over the next two days. This should allow the disturbance, dubbed Invest 94L by NHC on Friday afternoon, to increase in organization, though it will take many days for it to approach tropical depression status, since it is so large and poorly organized. The last two runs of the NOGAPS model have developed the disturbance into a tropical depression or storm by early next week, with the system moving northwards into Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and eastern Cuba. The other major models do not show the disturbance developing during the coming week. NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. A surge of moisture accompanying a tropical wave may aid development when the wave arrives in the Western Caribbean on Sunday. Water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 29°C, which is plenty warm enough to support development of a tropical storm. Residents of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic should anticipate the possibility that heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches may affect them today through Sunday.
Five EF-5 tornadoes confirmed in 2011
The National Weather Service in Oklahoma City announced Wednesday that the violent tornado that hit Binger, El Reno, Peidmont, and Guthrie, Oklahoma on May 24, killing nine people, was an EF-5 with winds greater than 210 mph. The rating was given based on measurements made by a University of Oklahoma portable "Doppler on wheels" radar. The long track, large wedge tornado caused extensive damage, with well built houses cleanly swept from their foundation and trees debarked. This tornado brings the total number of EF-5 tornadoes this year to five, tying 2011 with 1953 for 2nd place for greatest number of these top-end tornadoes in one year. Only 1974 (six) had more. The EF-5 tornadoes of 2011:
1) The April 27, 2011 Neshoba/Kemper/Winston/Noxubee Counties, Mississippi tornado (3 killed, 29 mile path length.)
2) The April 27, 2011 Smithville, Mississippi tornado (22 killed, 15 mile path length.)
3) The April 27, 2011 Hackleburg, Alabama tornado (71 killed, 25 mile path length.)
4) The May 22, 2011 Joplin Missouri tornado (138 killed, 14 mile path length.)
5) The May 24, 2011 Binger-El Reno-Peidmont-Guthrie, Oklahoma tornado. (9 killed, 75 mile path length.)
Figure 2. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.
A few other remarkable statistics on the tornado season of 2011, compiled from NOAA's official press release and Wikipedia's excellent tornado pages:
- The April 25 - 28 tornado outbreak, with 330 tornadoes, was the largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record. The previous record was 148 tornadoes, set during the April 3 - 4, 1974 Super Outbreak.
- For April 27, 186 tornadoes have been confirmed. This is the largest 1-day tornado total on record, beating the 148 recorded in 24 hours on April 3 - 4, 1974.
- The April 14 - 16 tornado outbreak, with 162 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the fourth largest tornado outbreak of three days or less duration on record.
- The May 21 - 26 tornado outbreak, with 158 confirmed tornadoes, ranks as the 5th largest 6-day or shorter tornado outbreak on record. A May 2003 6-day outbreak had 289 tornadoes, and a May 2004 6-day outbreak had 229 tornadoes. The year 2011 now has three of the top five tornado outbreaks on record.
- April confirmed tornado total was 683, making it the busiest tornado month on record. The previous record was 542 tornadoes, set in May 2003. The previous April record was 267 tornadoes, which occurred in April 1974. The 30-year average for April tornadoes is 135.
- If the three deaths in Massachusetts from Wednesday's tornadoes are confirmed, this year's tornado death toll will be 522, beating 1953 as the deadliest tornado year since modern tornado records began. That year, 519 people died, and three heavily populated cities received direct hits by violent tornadoes. Waco, Texas (114 killed), Flint, Michigan (115 killed), and Worcester, Massachusetts (90 killed) all were hit by violent F-4 or F-5 tornadoes. A similar bad tornado year occurred in 1936, when violent tornadoes hit Tupelo Mississippi (216 killed), and Gainesville, Georgia (203 killed.) During that time period, the tornado death rate per million people was 60 - 70 times as great as in the year 2000 (Figure 4), implying that this year's tornadoes would have killed many thousands of people had we not had our modern tornado modern warning system.
- The May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado killed 138 people and injured 1150, making it the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. The $1 - $3 billion estimate of insured damage makes it the most expensive tornado in history.
- Damage from the April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak was estimated at $3.5 - $6 billion, making it the most expensive tornado outbreak of all-time.
- The tornado that hit Springfield, Massachusetts on June 1 was at least an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds. It was only the 9th EF-3 or stronger tornado to hit Massachusetts since 1950, and the third deadliest, with three deaths.
- The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965 for highest number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4, and EF-5 tornadoes (Figure 3.)
Figure 3. Number of strong to violent EF-3, EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes from 1950 to 2011. The year 2011 now ranks in 3rd place behind 1974 and 1965. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of these most dangerous of tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/National Climatic Data Center (updated using stats for 2008 - 2011 from Wikipedia.)
Figure 4. Death rate per million people per year in U.S., 1875-2000. Thin line with dots is raw rate, curved thick line is death rate, filtered by 3-point median and 5-point running mean filter, and straight solid lines are least squares fit to filtered death rate for 1875-1925 and 1925-2000. Dashed lines are estimates of 10th and 90th percentile death rates from 1925-2000. The death rate fell from 8 per million to .12 per million between 1940 and 2000. Image credit: A Brief History of Deaths from Tornadoes in the United States, Harold Brooks and Charles Doswell III.
Joplin tornado the 7th U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster of 2011
The Joplin tornado is the 7th U.S. weather disaster of 2011 costing more than a billion dollars. With a major flooding disaster coming on the Missouri River, and hurricane season still to come, 2011 has an excellent chance of beating 2008's record of nine billion-dollar weather disasters. The billion dollar weather disasters of 2011 so far:
1) 2011 Groundhog Day's blizzard ($1- $4 billion)
2) April 3 -5 Southeast U.S. severe weather outbreak ($2 billion)
3) April 8 - 11 severe weather outbreak ($2.25 billion)
4) April 25 - 28 super tornado outbreak ($3.5 - $6 billion)
5) Mississippi River flood of 2011 ($9 billion)
6) Texas drought ($1.2 billion)
7) Joplin tornado ($1 - $3 billion)
Figure 5. River flood outlook for the U.S. Image credit: NOAA.
The next U.S. billion-dollar weather disaster: a Missouri River flood?
A great 100-year flood has arrived along the Missouri River and its tributaries from Montana to Nebraska. Record spring rains, combined with snow melt from record or near-record winter and spring snows, brought the Missouri River at Williston, North Dakota to 27.9' yesterday, just an inch short of the highest crest on record (28.0' on 4/01/1912.) Tributaries to the Missouri, such as the Souris River in North Dakota and the North Platte River in Nebraska, are already flooding at all-time record heights. With warm summer temperatures and additional rainfall expected over much of the area during the coming week, snow melt and rain runoff will swell area rivers even further, creating a damaging 100-year flood. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has the details in his latest post, and I will be writing more on this latest epic flood next week.
I'll have a new post on Monday, or earlier if the Caribbean disturbance shows significant development.
Jeff Masters
Here it is turning into a monster.
Reader Comments
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Know looks a bit conceited to quote oneself but wanted to link comments.
Parramatta, Sydney, Australia
Now
61.9°F rising
Partly Cloudy
Updated at 14:40 EST
Cold and blustery outlook for Sydney
Alex Krisman, Sunday June 5, 2011 - 13:46 EST
Sydneysiders should make the most of today's pleasantly crisp weather, since a series of cold fronts are set to deliver a cold and blustery week.
The first cold front is expected Monday afternoon, this will turn the winds southwesterly gusting up to 50 km/h. Winds will then ease on Tuesday before a stronger front arrives early Wednesday.
This front will be accompanied by a deep low pressure system that will whip up gale winds along the coast. This will create dangerous surf and seas, in addition to threatening the city with damaging wind gusts.
Although lengthy sunny periods are forecast there will be significant wind chill, leading to uncomfortably cold weather until late in the week. The coldest period will be between Wednesday and Thursday, with possible showers posing a challenge in the brolly-breaking winds.
- Weatherzone
A Cold week on the way. Not the news I was hoping for.
A lot. I heard that Baton Rouge (which I live near) is roughly 11 inches behind their annual average precipitation for this time of year. And we're not even in D4 drought.
Circulation still appears to be fairly well-defined, even if a little broad on the western side.
couple feet would do the trick. Haha, seriously though, a drought is determined by the normals. So it takes differing amounts of rain to recover. Not to mention that the same amount of rain at lower temps is better than at high temps. Rain rates are also a factor, as soaking rains are much better than a flash flood.
If you overlay the upper level winds on the floater imagery, you will see only light variable upper level winds over the system right now.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF JAMAICA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
I guess I'd better throw away the soaker hoses... LOL
On a more serious note, I have been watering my house foundation. A drought this bad requires it. And the garden, well, with a little water from the deep well pump; it's looking fair, but afraid the peas are just going to vine...
Thanks everyone for the responses. You guys are great.
Recent RGB satellite imagery also shows a marked increase in convection building in the vicinity and what appear to be inflow bands feeding into the area southeast of Jamaica as well.
I had a rather busy day. I'm actually in the process of analyzing things right now.
Based on these surface observations, the surface circulation appears to be located about 100 miles southwest of Jamaica. Satellite animations clearly depict at least moderate southeasterly upper flow in that vicinity.
Wouldn't say the disturbance is on life support yet. With it still having a broad surface circulation continuing, its still got a chance. Still has many obstacles to overcome though to develop into something further though.
Not a defined circulation anymore it would appear.
It never was that well-defined. It was better yesterday, yes, but it was never overly impressive.
One thing is for sure, based on what I'm seeing on satellite imagery as well as the global model forecast fields, this system appears to have less of a chance at reaching Arlene than it did.
Agreed, but not willing to write it completely off yet. I've become less optimistic for development than I was this time last night but given the history of this region, can't let my guard down.
I'll be interested to see later this morning whether the recent convective buildup over Jamaica and increasing vorticity over there could lead to a new focal point for this system. Not saying it will happen, but its been interesting to note the sudden increase in convection and the slight rotation I'm now noticing within the thunderstorm complex developing at this time.
No.
Well, nearly all early season systems that originate in this area are notorious for taking their time in developing. This one is no different.
I've been noticing it too. The upper flow also appears to be lighter across that region as well, and the environment is also relatively moist there, which may ultimately allow a secondary surface low to develop amidst that convection, with the current one ultimately dying off.
It is definitely a possibility.
EDIT: Although, in this particular scenario, I would imagine the odds of recurvature are higher, since the system would be in closer proximity to the trough, even if it does indeed come off farther north than what the models that are gung-ho over recurvature are postulating.
Given the erratic nature of such systems, I'm gonna keep an eye out for this to possibly happen.
In regards to recurvature, it will entirely depend on whether this develops even further.
shear maps
One would think. However, the set of global models predicting recurvature do not significantly deepen this system from its current state (besides the NOGAPS, which always overdoes things in this portion of the Caribbean), yet it still recurves. This leads me to believe that the purported weakness in the western Atlantic ridge my extend as far south as at least 700 mb, possibly even below.
We shall see. So far, the trough has overall been weaker across the NW Atlantic than the models have been forecasting in the past couple days.
Agreed, which is why I'm still siding with the western side of the guidance suite, ala the GFDL and ECMWF.
come soon
Same here. Just looking at the incoming ECMWF thus far and it continues to maintain consistency in not really developing the system, but sending the vort max and disturbed weather across Western Cuba and eventually into South Florida late this week.
cmc 00z
As always it seems. lol
The CMC has come much further west on this run than the previous runs today.
If the future motion of the system is to be northward, you can bet on it. Additionally, the broad low as a whole is so weak that the apparent WSW motion may just be a shedding of an old low center that is being sacrificed to the low-level steering flow. We have seen that before. I would expect the overall motion of the system to have at least some northerly component to it.
Lower Level Winds:
Low Level Vorticity:
Sea Level Pressure and Mid Level Heights:
Viewing: 3101 - 3151
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