Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Smoke, heat, and air pollution across much of the U.S.

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:41 GMT le 08 juin 2011

Smoke from Arizona's second largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire near the New Mexico border, has now blown downwind over 1,500 miles to the Northeast U.S. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least another day due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and a disturbance rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 25 mph, with gusts near 35 mph today to eastern Arizona. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 20 mph for 9 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 7%. The fire grew from 300 square miles on Sunday to 365 square miles on Monday and 487 square miles Tuesday--about 40% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 166-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. Winds are expected to diminish for Thursday and Friday, which should allow firefighters to make headway controlling the blazes. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.

Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 8, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,500 miles, and was pushing into the Northeast U.S.

Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 7, 2011. Heavy smoke from the fire covers large portions of New Mexico, Texas, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Nebraska in this image. Image credit: NASA.

Unusual June heat wave
An intense blast of heat set new daily high temperature marks in 14 states from Texas to Minnesota Tuesday, including a remarkable 103°F in Minneapolis. It was the hottest day in the city in nearly 23 years, since 105°F was recorded on July 31, 1988, and the second earliest date the city had ever hit 100°. Minneapolis' earliest 100° day came on May 31, 1934, when the mercury also hit 103°. Yesterday was the 5th consecutive day that the Austin, Texas Bergstrom Airport tied or set a new daily temperature record. On Monday, June 6, the airport hit 103°F, the earliest in the year that location had ever hit 103°. Record keeping began there in 1942, and the last time Austin was so warm so early in the year was on June 14, 1998, when the mercury hit 109°.

Figure 3. Air pollution forecast for Wednesday, June 8, 2011, calls for a large-spread region of pollution that is Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG), over the eastern third of the nation. Image credit: EPA Airnow.

Significant air pollution episode today
The heat will continue today for much of the eastern half of the country, and heat advisories are posted in fourteen states. The high heat, combined with abundant sunshine and very stagnant air, is expected to bring the most severe large-scale air pollution event of the year to the nation. Adding to the hazard is the presence of fine smoke particles from the fires in Arizona, which have blown downwind to cover most of the eastern 2/3 of the country. Air quality on Wednesday is expected to be Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Code Orange, or over 100 on the Air Quality Index), in more than 80 cities, including Baton Rouge, La., Indianapolis, Detroit, Nashville, Tenn., Columbus, Ohio, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Newark, N.J., Richmond, Va., and Atlanta. If you live in these areas, cut back on strenuous outdoor exercise today if you have asthma or other respiratory problems.

Caribbean disturbance 94L no threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Northwestern to North Central Caribbean Sea near Jamaica is very disorganized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. I heard from wunderground user Anthony Zed in the Kingston, Jamaica suburb of Norbrook, and he reported that his rain gauge received 11.27" of rain from 94L from June 1 - 7, which is more rain than had fallen all year. The big rain day was yesterday, with 3.47". Satellite loops show a few disorganized clumps of thunderstorms in the region, and NHC has downgraded 94L's chances of development by Friday to 0%. Wind shear is very high, 30 - 50 knots, making development very unlikely.

First tropical cyclone of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season forms
Tropical Storm Adrian, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, formed last night off the coast of Mexico. Adrian is in an ideal environment for intensification, with light wind shear and ocean temperatures of 30°C (86°), and will likely become a hurricane on Thursday. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country, at least for the next three days. June hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific are much more common than in the Atlantic.

NOAA's pre-season prediction of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, issued on May 16, calls for below average activity, with 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 75% of the median. The 1981-2010 averages for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season are 15 - 16 named storms, 8 - 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Amazing solar flare erupts
In recent months, the sun has awakened from its longest and quietest period since the satellite era bgan in the late 1970s. An increasing number of sunspots, solar flares, and Coronal Mass Ejections have occurred, as solar activity builds towards a peak expected in 2013. Yesterday, the sun unleased the most spectacular solar flare ever captured on video, highlighted in the Youtube link below.

Video 1. A spectacular solar flare erupted at 06:41 UTC on June 6, 2011, when magnetic fields above sunspot complex 1226-1227 became unstable. The blast produced a massive Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was not aimed directly at Earth, but fringes of the blast may cause aurora activity on June 8 and 9. This is probably the most dramatic and beautiful solar flare captured by the cameras on NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO.) Additional movies and information are available at spaceweather.com, and additional information on the latest solar activity is available from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

Jeff Masters

Wallow Fire (azmtnmama)

the dots are ash

New Mexico Smoke Emergency (darnold)

A sickening orange glow looks like sunset but it is heavy smoke from forest fires in Arizona. Air quality alert in effect, warnings to stay indoors. Zuni mountains, just a few miles off in this view, cannot even be seen. Grants, NM, 2.5 hours pre-sunset

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402. Neapolitan 20:48 GMT le 08 juin 2011
I just wanted to share these two great weather-related images from Chile's Puyehue volcano from The Big Picture. Make sure to view them full size: Click for larger image: Click for larger image: Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11302

403. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:48 GMT le 08 juin 2011
WTPN21 PGTW 082000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 120.6E TO 20.4N 117.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 081732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 13.4N 121.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.4E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING BAND OF CONVECTION CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 08/1744Z AMSR-E 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. WATER VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. 08/1200Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT BENEATH A POINT SOURCE WITH 5-15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS STEERING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18-23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 092000Z.// NNNN Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:48 GMT le 08 juin 2011
ALERT ATCF MIL 92W XXX 110608180000 2011060818 14.2 120.6 20.4 117.8 130 14.6 120.4 082000 1106081951 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTPN21 PGTW 082000 REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921Z JUN 11// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081930)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 120.6E TO 20.4N 117.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 081732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 120.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 092000Z. // 9211060606 68N1276E 15 9211060612 74N1270E 15 9211060618 83N1266E 15 9211060700 89N1258E 15 9211060706 99N1248E 15 9211060712 113N1238E 15 9211060718 123N1228E 15 9211060800 129N1220E 15 9211060806 135N1214E 20 9211060812 141N1208E 15 9211060818 146N1204E 15 NNNN Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

405. JRRP 20:49 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr: The model has been showing that since two days ago and today it continues. That big area of convection emerging West Africa,may be the one. yeap Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4357

406. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 20:49 GMT le 08 juin 2011
TPPN10 PGTW 081818 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (S OF LUZON) B. 08/1732Z C. 14.4N D. 120.5E E. FIVE/MTSAT F. N/A G. IR/EIR H. REMARKS: 70/PBO ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND. I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE HOUGH Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

407. Skyepony (Mod) 20:50 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Ex-94L remnants blowing up just south of Cuba & should continue on the other side of Cuba. This is the other 1/2 of the split.. part went over Hispaniola & was swept E (I had expected a little more ENE) May still get some sort of blob out of that. Now this broad low that was left moving north over Cuba, that should blob up a bit & hopefully come to FL..models prefer the Bahamas, maybe the ULL in the gulf draws it back this way...GO CMC!! (this is out 60hrs) Weak storm, lotta rain up the spine of FL.. (click pic, scroll right & click forward to loop) Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29954

409. Skyepony (Mod) 20:53 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29954

410. hurricanejunky 20:55 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting Grothar: Why would you ever think I lived on the West Coast. I don't even go there. Ugh, terrible, awful, the bugs and the heat. LOL No, my mother's family has lived between Miami and Ft. Lauderdale since 1923. I am in Coral Ridge. I have never seen it so dry, ever. It is really becoming serious unless we get rain soon. I hope the wind doesn't change, because those fires are awful Grew up in Miami and lived in Fort Myers since 1979 and I don't recall any less heat or bugs over there than there are here! How's it going Groth? Member Since: 28 août 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2877

411. photonchaser 20:56 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting sylver27: this wildfire is bad, and not letting up. I fear it might be the biggest fire on record. I fear it might reach texas. It might reach New Mexico if the conditions are right, but Texas is a very long distance for the fire to travel. Member Since: 3 juin 2004 Posts: 1 Comments: 134

412. PrivateIdaho 20:56 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting Jax82: Wow @ #4 on that list, and all of them really. Where do they take all this debris? Burned? Buried? Depending on conversion assumptions that amount of predominately cellulosic material could be converted to about 1 million gallons of biofuel. Member Since: 29 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5211

414. SLU 20:57 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting Neapolitan: I just wanted to share these two great weather-related images from Chile's Puyehue volcano from The Big Picture. Make sure to view them full size: Click for larger image: Click for larger image: Good thing this volcano didn't erupt on May 21st. Member Since: 13 juillet 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 3049

416. blsealevel 20:57 GMT le 08 juin 2011
The Big Thumb? Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

417. portcharlotte 20:58 GMT le 08 juin 2011
I like your atitude! Go CMC! Quoting Skyepony: Ex-94L remnants blowing up just south of Cuba & should continue on the other side of Cuba. This is the other 1/2 of the split.. part went over Hispaniola & was swept E (I had expected a little more ENE) May still get some sort of blob out of that. Now this broad low that was left moving north over Cuba, that should blob up a bit & hopefully come to FL..models prefer the Bahamas, maybe the ULL in the gulf draws it back this way...GO CMC!! (this is out 60hrs) Weak storm, lotta rain up the spine of FL.. (click pic, scroll right & click forward to loop) Member Since: 7 septembre 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 703

420. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 21:03 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41311

421. blsealevel 21:03 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

422. Skyepony (Mod) 21:04 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Finally NOAA is saying it.. Been saying for months El Nino isn't out of the question & more recently that it is very likely, atleast briefly.. 10sec SST video & source of below is here.. Pacific Transitions from La Niña to Neutral PhaseThe Pacific basin undergoes a natural warming and cooling cycle every few years, called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Changes from the warmer than normal (El Niño) to cooler than normal (La Niña) phases affect seasonal weather patterns across the globe, especially in coastal Pacific areas where wind and rainfall patterns are greatly altered. Recent analysis by NOAA has shown that as of May 2011, the Pacific transitioned from La Niña to a neutral phase. How quickly the Pacific transitions from neutral to El Niño remains to be seen. However, an area of warmer than normal temperatures can be seen in sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) data, an indication of an emerging El Niño. SSTa shows areas that are cooler or warmer than normal, and is one of the primary datasets used by scientists to assess ENSO. This animation starts on March 1, 2011 and runs until June 7, 2011, showing the daily SSTa imagery generated from the NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST product, which uses a variety of satellite and buoy observations. Note how the equatorial regions transition from blue to white and then red colors as the spring progresses. SSTa data can be monitored in real-time by accessing the global imagery here. Member Since: 10 août 2005 Posts: 145 Comments: 29954

423. beell 21:07 GMT le 08 juin 2011
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2011 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...BROAD UPPER CYCLONE ALSO MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER ERN GULF OR FL...PERHAPS WITH SFC REFLECTION OVER ERN FL OR ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. PROGS VARY GREATLY ON STRENGTH/POSITIONING OF DEEP-LAYER LOW NEAR FL...BUT MOST INDICATE SOME FORM OF IT BY END OF PERIOD... 700mb 12Z NAM @ 66 hrs Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 126 Comments: 13068

424. blsealevel 21:08 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Are these going to merge in around the bahamas Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

426. StAugustineFL 21:13 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Flagler County fire clearly visible. Link Member Since: 8 Mars 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 580

427. blsealevel 21:13 GMT le 08 juin 2011
looks pretty strong to Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

429. JLPR2 21:15 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Wind shear has gone down considerably compared to 4am this morning with the low north of PR. Who knows this one might have a small window to at least be interesting. Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

430. blsealevel 21:16 GMT le 08 juin 2011
no way shear way to strong Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

431. caneswatch 21:16 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting sylver27: it will bust nothing will make it this year winds too high too much dust Let's see, member since yesterday, claiming this season's gonna be a bust even though hurricane season started a week ago. It's gotta be a: Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

432. presslord 21:16 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting Skyepony: Finally NOAA is saying it.. Been saying for months El Nino isn't out of the question & more recently that it is very likely, atleast briefly.. 10sec SST video & source of below is here.. Pacific Transitions from La Niña to Neutral PhaseThe Pacific basin undergoes a natural warming and cooling cycle every few years, called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Changes from the warmer than normal (El Niño) to cooler than normal (La Niña) phases affect seasonal weather patterns across the globe, especially in coastal Pacific areas where wind and rainfall patterns are greatly altered. Recent analysis by NOAA has shown that as of May 2011, the Pacific transitioned from La Niña to a neutral phase. How quickly the Pacific transitions from neutral to El Niño remains to be seen. However, an area of warmer than normal temperatures can be seen in sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) data, an indication of an emerging El Niño. SSTa shows areas that are cooler or warmer than normal, and is one of the primary datasets used by scientists to assess ENSO. This animation starts on March 1, 2011 and runs until June 7, 2011, showing the daily SSTa imagery generated from the NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST product, which uses a variety of satellite and buoy observations. Note how the equatorial regions transition from blue to white and then red colors as the spring progresses. SSTa data can be monitored in real-time by accessing the global imagery here. Can you elaborate a little on what this means? Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10404

434. Tazmanian 21:17 GMT le 08 juin 2011
HEH HEH all the rain that you guys where hoping for FL fade a way with 94L nevere get your hops up you may feel bad about it later Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111614

436. twhcracker 21:18 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting blsealevel: The Big Thumb? it looks like weiners tweet haha Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448

437. srada 21:19 GMT le 08 juin 2011
It looks like the CMC wants to merge two storms together before hitting florida..you got three models still predicting "something"..I dont think ex 94L is through yet.. Member Since: 17 août 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

438. JLPR2 21:20 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting sylver27: this shear is just not going to die down, I just hope something tropical builds up to give the states some rain. I fear that won't happen this year. You what's funny about that statement? During June it is complete C-word, but if you said it during an inactive September it would make sense. LOL! Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7526

440. blsealevel 21:23 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Shear at the mid levels dont seem to bad though? Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

441. PcolaDan 21:23 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Lightning strike sends 77 Camp Shelby soldiers to hospitals Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

443. RickWPB 21:23 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting 7544: if this pans out maybe so ? Link I sure hope it does pan out this way. Member Since: 26 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 299

444. CybrTeddy 21:23 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Just ignore sylver27, and flag, and move on. Season only 8 days in and its a cold-neutral year. Defiantly not an El Nino nor will it be. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

445. NICycloneChaser 21:24 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting sylver27: this hurricane season is a repeat of 2006 they say it will be active but it ends up being mild this is a el nino season so different then it's sister season 2005. 2004 was a weak El Nino season, it managed 15 storms, and we know what 2004 managed in the Caribbean and Florida. Member Since: 10 août 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1958

446. CybrTeddy 21:25 GMT le 08 juin 2011
This year 'might' briefly hit El Nino, for a week and it will not have a noticeable effect on the atmosphere in the Atlantic. We're in a neutral year, like 2008 was most recently. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20632

447. srada 21:27 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Area forecast discussion from the NWS in Raleigh,NC IT MUST BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS BOTH DEPICT (TO VARYING DEGREES AND WITH DIFFERING PLACEMENT) A TROPICAL LOW TRACKING FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH AND FARTHEST WEST (CLOSEST TO THE COAST) WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER/WEAKER/MORE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR IN TIMING/PLACEMENT TO THE GFS BUT MERELY SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH RIDING TO THE NNW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE ANTICYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSSIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP. Member Since: 17 août 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 772

449. NICycloneChaser 21:27 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting CybrTeddy: This year 'might' briefly hit El Nino, for a week and it will not have a noticeable effect on the atmosphere in the Atlantic. We're in a neutral year, like 2008 was most recently. I agree. And I don't think we'll get even a moderate El Nino through the winter, but rather trend back towards a La Nina for next year's season. Member Since: 10 août 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1958

450. tropicfreak 21:28 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Quoting sylver27: this hurricane season is a repeat of 2006 they say it will be active but it ends up being mild this is a el nino season so different then it's sister season 2005. Nope, it's a weak La Nina, and that is not always the case. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

451. MrMixon 21:28 GMT le 08 juin 2011
Oh geez... who forgot to lock the cage? and move on... Member Since: 26 Mars 2006 Posts: 40 Comments: 1083

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