Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:06 GMT le 10 juin 2011

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.

Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)

Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.

Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)

Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11

Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)

814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.

Categories: Fire

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501. fatlady99 02:06 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: FL- (much nicer than typing fatlady) you're not gonna get banned for discussing weather memories. Not too often it's quiet enough around here, to have nice conversation. Grothar's always bragging about something it seems... :) AQ - well when you are as old as Grothar, what else is there to do? Member Since: 4 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

502. aquak9 02:08 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Brownies outta the oven, ya'll. Let'm cool a bit, then help yourselves. Save the edges for me, tho. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

503. tropicfreak 02:08 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: fatlady- I guess I was ok, like I said, I don't remember. But Jeanne/francis was a mess, sounds like you are better prepared now, hand crank is good. They even make some hand crank cell phone chargers these days. Did you see my response to your comment aquak. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

504. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:12 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting shadoclown45: Guys what is the chance of rain at 6:00pm tomorrow in staten island. 60 percent Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

505. aquak9 02:16 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting tropicfreak: I would love to too aquak, but here the darn jet stream and the rain snow line hurts us here in Richmond VA. LOL. Oh how I long for those cold snowy days! this one, tropics? it's kinda the wrong time of year for snow...I've never even seen it. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

506. SouthALWX 02:19 GMT le 11 juin 2011
I'd like to see how much of an effect the warm AMO has on Florida Seabreeze. With the water anomalously warm, it serves to reason that the temperature contrast between land and sea may not be as much as when the water is anomalously cool. Member Since: 27 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1497

507. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:21 GMT le 11 juin 2011
rapid disapation 01E/H/A MARK 15.55n/109.1w Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

508. Levi32 02:23 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting SouthALWX: I'd like to see how much of an effect the warm AMO has on Florida Seabreeze. With the water anomalously warm, it serves to reason that the temperature contrast between land and sea may not be as much as when the water is anomalously cool. That's a very good point. I considered that as well, but that doesn't explain why Florida has only been this way recently, not since 1995 when the AMO went positive. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25612

509. BahaHurican 02:24 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting OrchidGrower: I think Buhdog put his paw on it earlier today, talking about how you used to could count on seabreeze and rain; now we have these crazy ULLs and what-not that park over a patch of water and won't move, destroy every wet system that comes along, etc. Speaking of which - is our ULL in the Gulf moving yet, or still hanging tough alongside? I saw beautiful stormclouds in the distance over Naples this afternoon, but here in Cape Coral/Ft. Myers that dreadful wind was up as usual of late, taking the wrecking ball to the afternoon's clouds. I think we've also seen some changes in steering patterns as well. Case in point; the first moisture we normally got in June was not likely to be from a SW CAR low pressure system, but rather from an easterly Twave, moving progressively from the SE to the NW through the archipelago. Forecasting was relatively easy. Nowadays, it seems somewhat harder to know what to expect.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

510. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:25 GMT le 11 juin 2011
XX/AOI/XL MARK 10.55N/41.22W Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

511. OrchidGrower 02:31 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Very true, Baha - I've lurked on this site for years and I don't often remember such jagged looking presentations of the northern jet stream in summer. There's always a crazy dip and a crazy ridge somewhere, but the whole thing across the Western Hemisphere this year has just been stuck for weeks ... plunging down to the subtropics, then running wildly up into the polar regions, plunging right back down to the subtropics again a couple hundred miles further over. And a lot of that's from big Lows and Highs just sitting in place -- nothing really wanting to move. LOL it's like the whole northern atmosphere needs some Milk of Magnesia Member Since: 24 septembre 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

513. BahaHurican 02:32 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Looking at the bigger picture, it seems like 94L is pretty much gone... a few more overnight showers if we get lucky. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17961

514. PcolaDan 02:33 GMT le 11 juin 2011
The day the river boiled: Chilean volcanic eruption turns waterway into a steaming torrent The usually chilly river temperature of six degrees has been raised to an average of around 45 degrees by the eruption. The huge surge in temperature has caused more than 4.3million fish to die since it began last Saturday. The eruption also forced the evacuation of 3,500 people from around the site, while a ten kilometre exclusion zone was also set up. Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

517. Hurricanes101 02:38 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Annular hurricane generally do not weaken this quickly Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

519. Thundercloud01221991 02:42 GMT le 11 juin 2011
I posted this earlier today ... I figured I would post it again for those that were not on earlier Here is my advice for new members. Although I may not be the most popular poster here I have been around for a long time on here. Here are a few things to keep in mind for your first tropical season as a member here: 1. Give your opinion on tropical storms with backup... find specific data to back up your forecasters. 2. Ask questions.. even if you are the lead forecaster at National Hurricane Center... ask questions to show your genuine interest in other peoples opinions. 3. Stand up for yourself but don't resort to personal attacks.... defend your forecast don't put down your "opponent" 4. Read.... Read.... Read.... Read.... Read... find out what other people are saying don't try to control the conversation at all times. 5. Admit when you are wrong... if you mess up badly on a forecast... find out why and explain where you messed up... this will show that you are human just like the rest of us. 6. Be humble when you are right. Even if you got your forecast 100% right compliment someone else who also got the forecast right or don't say anything about your own forecast. 7. Post on other blogs in the same matter to help increase your post count and your reputation on the board. 8. Write your own blogs about the tropical system.. and keep it updated even if no one comments (many people read them even if no one comments) 9. Don't post links to your own website on here (you will be gone before you can create any reputation). 10. And finally... don't let people get on your nerves... there will always be bickering but you don't have to be a part of it. Thanks for reading this post of mine Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3693

520. aquak9 02:42 GMT le 11 juin 2011
cool pics- errr..."steamy" pics with that link, p'cola thanks Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

521. CybrTeddy 02:44 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: Annular hurricane generally do not weaken this quickly They can when they're transiting into cooler waters. Igor was also semi-annular for a while too. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 255 Comments: 20656

522. bappit 02:44 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Late Wednesday (local time) NHC was only forecasting cat 3 status for Adrian. HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 0300 UTC THU JUN 09 2011 FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. Adrian sure beat the heck out of that forecast. HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 0900 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 4427

523. zoomiami 02:45 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: I think we've also seen some changes in steering patterns as well. Case in point; the first moisture we normally got in June was not likely to be from a SW CAR low pressure system, but rather from an easterly Twave, moving progressively from the SE to the NW through the archipelago. Forecasting was relatively easy. Nowadays, it seems somewhat harder to know what to expect.... Agree with you on all points -- I made the same comment about the rain the other day -- just like an alarm -- 2:45 - 3:15 --- the winds have been different, and none of the "normals" are normal any more. Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4071

525. CosmicEvents 02:47 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: Brownies outta the oven, ya'll. Let'm cool a bit, then help yourselves. Save the edges for me, tho. Those brownies smell so good they've lured some ants outta' there deep nest........I'm sure your homemade brownies are delicious....I'm in outpatient therapy for addiction to Ghiardelli Ultimate Fudge. Save an edge for me too. Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5133

526. Grothar 02:47 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: FL- (much nicer than typing fatlady) you're not gonna get banned for discussing weather memories. Not too often it's quiet enough around here, to have nice conversation. Grothar's always bragging about something it seems... :) I told you before; I'm taking names. :) So what are we arguing about tonight? I mean discussing? Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

528. TomTaylor 02:48 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: what math, SLU? Shear dropping, AB high signing a lease, SAL looks about normal. Am I missing something? idk if you were kidding, but yes, you are missing a few things. And I disagree with SAL being at normal levels. Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 4053

529. geepy86 02:50 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Grothar: I told you before; I'm taking names. :) So what are we arguing about tonight? I mean discussing? Who makes the best brownies. : ) Edges are the best. Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1613

530. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:51 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010: need to watch 10.55N/41.22W maybe that is florida's rain Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

531. TomTaylor 02:53 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting bappit: Late Wednesday (local time) NHC was only forecasting cat 3 status for Adrian. HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 0300 UTC THU JUN 09 2011 FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW. Adrian sure beat the heck out of that forecast. HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 0900 UTC FRI JUN 10 2011 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. I don't think anyone forecasted it to be a cat 4. Some said cat 3, but I don't think there were any cat 4 predictions until it was a strong cat 2 Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 4053

532. geepy86 02:54 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: maybe that is florida's rain I wish. Member Since: 19 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1613

533. bappit 02:54 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting TomTaylor: I disagree with SAL being at normal levels. Just curious, what is normal for the SAL in June? More or less than what's shown in the CIMSS image? Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 4427

534. Orcasystems 02:54 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Vancouver... 1 win away from the Stanley Cup Member Since: 1 octobre 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26110

535. nigel20 02:55 GMT le 11 juin 2011
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.g if Member Since: 6 novembre 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 4904

536. bappit 02:55 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Mavs ... Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 4427

537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:56 GMT le 11 juin 2011
XX/AOI/XL MARK 10.55N/41.36W Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

538. aquak9 02:58 GMT le 11 juin 2011
cosmic- these were from scratch, but I gotta box of Ghirardelli in the cupboard. Grothar- here have a brownie and hush geepy- keep yer paws offa the edges...ok you can have some... TomTaylor- I am not smart at weather...so please enlighten me? What all am I missing? Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

539. caneswatch 02:59 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: maybe that is florida's rain It hopefully is. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

541. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:00 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting TomTaylor: I don't think anyone forecasted it to be a cat 4. Some said cat 3, but I don't think there were any cat 4 predictions until it was a strong cat 2 go back i did say c3 or c4 when storm first started to get its act together but to me that does not matter i just spot them and track them it turned out exactly as i said it would and is Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

542. caneswatch 03:01 GMT le 11 juin 2011
From NHC's 8pm TWD: TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 3N44W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES JUST W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W. Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

543. msphar 03:02 GMT le 11 juin 2011
I am so tired of snow. It snowed here at the house last Monday. Finally we have had three pleasant days of nice weather. Hopefully winter has given up the ghost. I lost all my grape vines, though the roots are starting to send up new shoots, and many of my trees suffered from frost. Six maples are struggling to send out green shoots. We had about 6 or 7 killer frosts in the last two months. Its nice to get back to monitoring the tropics. I have seen just a few Twaves come across so far. Doesn't seem very active. Member Since: 20 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

544. oceanbug 03:02 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: I posted this earlier today ... Here is my advice for new members... Thank you, Thunder, for your excellent advice. It's nice to see all that common sense in one place. Now, if we could just get everyone to follow it! This year has been much better than last. knocks on wood Thanks for the brownies, Aqua! I went to Florida State, and I remember the afternoon rains always hit when one of my classes got out. I know there are some posters here who are currently at FSU. Are they messed up there this year, like they are farther south? Member Since: 2 février 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 72

545. Hurricanes101 03:02 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting caneswatch: From NHC's 8pm TWD: TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N41W TO 3N44W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES JUST W OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-42W. seems to me conditions are decent out there shear is a bit high though Member Since: 10 Mars 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 6930

546. TomTaylor 03:03 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: go back i did say c3 or c4 when storm first started to get its act together but to me that does not matter i just spot them and track them it turned out exactly as i said it would and is ah, sorry keep. Hard to keep track of everybodys predictions...we usually get a pretty wide spread on this blog Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 4053

547. Grothar 03:03 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: cosmic- these were from scratch, but I gotta box of Ghirardelli in the cupboard. Grothar- here have a brownie and hush geepy- keep yer paws offa the edges...ok you can have some... TomTaylor- I am not smart at weather...so please enlighten me? What all am I missing? I stopped eating brownies in the 60's. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19682

548. aquak9 03:04 GMT le 11 juin 2011
ok, re-reviewing post 456 I see REALLY low shear. Tendencies taking a nose dive. Even very little shear near the AB high. I see SAL, but ok, quite low to non-existant the closer it gets to the ITCZ. So maybe I shoulda looked at it closer. A big calm steamy bathtub? TomTaylor? Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

549. caneswatch 03:05 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Hurricanes101: seems to me conditions are decent out there shear is a bit high though True. Do you have the shear maps? Member Since: 8 octobre 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4479

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