Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:06 GMT le 10 juin 2011

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.

Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)

Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.

Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)

Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11

Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)

814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.

Categories: Fire

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 651 - 701

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 — Blog Index

653. DocNDswamp 06:19 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Certainly a far cry from what it was just 24-30 hrs ago, amazing... will be interesting to see how quickly it's downgraded, imagine still a hurricane w next advisory, but a TS shortly after... Adrian gave us a good run! Member Since: 21 septembre 2005 Posts: 92 Comments: 4639

654. HuracanTaino 06:23 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting jasonweatherman2010: 43 west Interesting wave for early June this far out in the atlantic I know is not climatologically the time for tropical storm formation here, but nice looking wave nevertheless and shears and SST aren't bad either, of course not saying it would develop. Member Since: 31 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

655. BahaHurican 09:56 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Morning all. Quoting HuracanTaino: Interesting wave for early June this far out in the atlantic I know is not climatologically the time for tropical storm formation here, but nice looking wave nevertheless and shears and SST aren't bad either, of course not saying it would develop. Well, June storms are not unheard of. That wave is still just breaching 10N, so if it does make something of itself it has a good chance of making some kind of island landfall. Even as a mere Twave, it could be in position at least potentially to bring some rains to the E Car, even the Bahamas / TCI and eventually FL.... but that's a long way down a potential road... I need to find that comparison site for average location of the ITCZ at a given point in time. In my mind I'm thinking it's usually a bit closer to 10N on average by this time.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17618

656. BahaHurican 10:10 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Latest 94L Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17618

657. BahaHurican 10:17 GMT le 11 juin 2011
BTW, we got 1.1 in of rain in Nassau yesterday.... most in months. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17618

658. severstorm 10:45 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: BTW, we got 1.1 in of rain in Nassau yesterday.... most in months. Yep ok, you answered my question. (How much rain did you get.) You all needed that rain so its all good. Member Since: 25 novembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 916

659. Tropicsweatherpr 10:48 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Good morning to all. That tropical wave is already being mentioned in the San Juan NWS discussions. Here is this morning's excerpt. LOOKING AHEAD...STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NEAR OR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK. Member Since: 29 avril 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 8148

660. BahaHurican 10:53 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Have to admit.... having a Twave in the forecast seems a bit more normal for June... lol. Good thing about them... unlike the monsoonal lows, they just keep chugging along, 10mph, raining on everything in their path, but not hanging about for too long. I'd rather have a long series of them than one or two severe storms.... Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17618

663. nrtiwlnvragn 11:14 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: Morning all. Well, June storms are not unheard of. That wave is still just breaching 10N, so if it does make something of itself it has a good chance of making some kind of island landfall. Even as a mere Twave, it could be in position at least potentially to bring some rains to the E Car, even the Bahamas / TCI and eventually FL.... but that's a long way down a potential road... I need to find that comparison site for average location of the ITCZ at a given point in time. In my mind I'm thinking it's usually a bit closer to 10N on average by this time.... This paper, Deconstructing Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone variability: Influence of the local cross-equatorial sea surface temperature gradient and remote forcing from the eastern equatorial Pacific has a graph of the mean ITCZ position between 15-35W, data from the years 1979-1999. Appears to me the current position is anomalously low. However, Mcnoldy has a Hovmoller that shows it to be in a more normal position. Member Since: 23 septembre 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8922

666. aspectre 11:26 GMT le 11 juin 2011
514 PcolaDan quoting a news item "Chilean volcanic eruption turns waterway into a steaming torrent The usually chilly river temperature of six degrees has been raised to an average of around 45 degrees by the eruption." Temperatures are in Celsius. 6degreesCelsius = ~43degreesFahrenheit ... 45deg.C = 113deg.F Member Since: 21 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

667. BahaHurican 11:32 GMT le 11 juin 2011
I'm out for the day, ya'll. Happy wave-watching! Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17618

668. blsealevel 11:49 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting JeffMasters: Blog's a bit slow tonight, so check out this news item: The San Diego Union-Times' weather page had made-up temperatures up to 15 degrees off for Death Valley for months, according to this news story: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/jun/08/de ath-valley-weather-stats-were-fabricated/ Jeff Masters Thet do that with my power bill also only they round off to the higher number LOL Member Since: 23 août 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1916

669. GeoffreyWPB 11:51 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9117

670. GeoffreyWPB 11:53 GMT le 11 juin 2011
For West Palm Beach: Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9117

671. Neapolitan 11:54 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Karnakowy: How big is this hurricane? Hey, look, at #662, aqua! ;-) Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11148

672. GeoffreyWPB 11:57 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting BahaHurican: I'm out for the day, ya'll. Happy wave-watching! The big picture: Member Since: 10 septembre 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9117

676. unruly 12:14 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting AussieStorm: Quoting Karnakowy: Hurricane are very dangerous :/ style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clus ters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" alt="" height="1" width="1"> style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://liczniki.org/ms2.php?l=szymon92xx& 1307 622670127" alt="" height="1" width="1"> http://rg.revolvermaps.com/h/m/a/0/ff0000/128/0/6 szbksffjeh.png" ;="" style="border: 0pt none; max-width: 501px;" width="1" What the ** is this.?????????? Aussie, I have a sinking feeling that I know who this is...Possibly "the one who's name we do not speak"??? Member Since: 10 octobre 2009 Posts: 27 Comments:** 4454

677. emcf30 12:14 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Here we go again Member Since: 7 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

678. CybrTeddy 12:21 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Very quite day ahead, no model support for development of a cyclone in the Atlantic for the next 10 days. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20227

679. IKE 12:22 GMT le 11 juin 2011
...NEAR 0 PERCENT.. 94L did nothing but tease Florida...from the south and now the east.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

680. AussieStorm 12:27 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting unruly: Aussie, I have a sinking feeling that I know who this is...Possibly "the one who's name we do not speak"??? I will try to sort him out. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13315

681. AussieStorm 12:28 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting IKE: ...NEAR 0 PERCENT.. 94L did nothing but tease Florida...from the south and now the east.... Well that blows. Pity, all of Florida needs rain. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13315

682. IKE 12:29 GMT le 11 juin 2011
No words needed............ Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

683. IKE 12:29 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting AussieStorm: Well that blows. Pity, all of Florida needs rain. It's w-a-y too dry. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

686. AussieStorm 12:33 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting P451: It's embedded tracking. Report to admin and move on. This stuff shouldn't be allowed to be embedded in comments. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13315

687. emcf30 12:34 GMT le 11 juin 2011
This is something we have discussed in the past. Looks like reality now. Senators worry disaster fund could run dry Excerpt: Agency officials haven't yet tallied costs, which brought the number of states hit with major disasters to 40. But Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said FEMA estimates it will be short $2 billion to $4.2 billion in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1. "Without additional funds, it is very likely this fund will be exhausted as early as January," said Landrieu, who led a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing June 1 on FEMA's funding. "Recovery efforts, therefore, in all 50 states, including those recently harmed by flooding and tornadoes, will cease." shreveporttimes Member Since: 7 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

688. unruly 12:35 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting P451: It's embedded tracking. Report to admin and move on. You mean like the poster wants to know where we are? Member Since: 10 octobre 2009 Posts: 27 Comments: 4454

689. aquak9 12:40 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Good Job you guys!! You found another ip tracker/tracer. Unruly- it's like an evil kitten that follows you home, then gets your ip address, then follows EVERYTHING. For those of you who are non-members, I definitely would not click on, or purchase from, any of the advertisements. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25007

690. Thundercloud01221991 12:43 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Adrian looks like it may be exposed by the next advisory from NHC... looks to me like it is down to 50 mph right now Member Since: 1 août 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 3665

691. AussieStorm 12:44 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: Good Job you guys!! You found another ip tracker/tracer. Unruly- it's like an evil kitten that follows you home, then gets your ip address, then follows EVERYTHING. For those of you who are non-members, I definitely would not click on, or purchase from, any of the advertisements. This one needs removed also. 662. Karnakowy How big is this hurricane? I will be on the look out for new handles and checking if they are adding extra's to there comments Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13315

692. IKE 12:44 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting emcf30: This is something we have discussed in the past. Looks like reality now. Senators worry disaster fund could run dry Excerpt: Agency officials haven't yet tallied costs, which brought the number of states hit with major disasters to 40. But Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., said FEMA estimates it will be short $2 billion to $4.2 billion in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1. "Without additional funds, it is very likely this fund will be exhausted as early as January," said Landrieu, who led a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing June 1 on FEMA's funding. "Recovery efforts, therefore, in all 50 states, including those recently harmed by flooding and tornadoes, will cease." shreveporttimes Postal Service is going broke too....along with Medicare and Social Security. Country needs a fix. Badly. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

693. AussieStorm 12:48 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting IKE: Postal Service is going broke too....along with Medicare and Social Security. Country needs a fix. Badly. Bring in a Carbon Tax like our govt is. $26 per tonne. Oh and they said before the last election that was only just in August 2010 they wouldn't be bring it in when the opposition brought it up that they would. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13315

694. unruly 12:49 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: Good Job you guys!! You found another ip tracker/tracer. Unruly- it's like an evil kitten that follows you home, then gets your ip address, then follows EVERYTHING. For those of you who are non-members, I definitely would not click on, or purchase from, any of the advertisements. You have WU mail aqua Member Since: 10 octobre 2009 Posts: 27 Comments: 4454

695. emcf30 12:50 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting IKE: Postal Service is going broke too....along with Medicare and Social Security. Country needs a fix. Badly. We definitely need to change the way we operate for sure. Hope its not to late. The well is going to run dry. Member Since: 7 août 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1926

696. unruly 12:51 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting AussieStorm: This one needs removed also. 662. Karnakowy How big is this hurricane? I will be on the look out for new handles and checking if they are adding extra's to there comments How can you tell if they add extras? I couldn't see it. Member Since: 10 octobre 2009 Posts: 27 Comments: 4454

697. Neapolitan 12:52 GMT le 11 juin 2011
ATCF says Adrian is still a hurricane, though just barely at 65 knots. Say your goodbyes now: EP, 01, 2011061112, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 0, 20, 1007, 225, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11148

698. IKE 12:53 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Two day QPF..... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

699. AussieStorm 12:54 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting unruly: How can you tell if they add extras? I couldn't see it. I clicked on it and it had all that stuff i posted before. Both comments posted by that handle had the same thing. Normally it should just say the comment you are quoting. That handle had extra. Member Since: 30 septembre 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13315

700. Grothar 12:58 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting emcf30: We definitely need to change the way we operate for sure. Hope its not to late. The well is going to run dry. But the Post Office isn't a Government Agency. It is a totally independent branch of the government. One of the largest civilian employers. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19514

701. RukusBoondocks 13:01 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Scoot toot and boogie!! Member Since: 13 février 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 294

Viewing: 651 - 701

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters