Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:06 GMT le 10 juin 2011 +5
The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke
Categories: Fire
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1751. Patrap 02:02 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?



Volcanoes of Eritrea

Jalua

Alid

Dubbi

Nabro

Assab

Gufa

Mousa All






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1752. AstroHurricane001 02:02 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?


Pick one...Link
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1753. aquak9 02:03 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Apocalyptic? My kinda people!

for the first time since the earthquake/tsunami, strontium has been found in the groundwater near Fukushima.

so suddenly it's 240 times the limit? when was the last time they tested? Who's been doing the testing?

Apocalyptic is my middle name.
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1755. IceCoast 02:04 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
To keep with the current apocalyptic theme..
5.2 Magnitude 5 miles ESE of Christchurch, NZ
Link
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1756. Chicklit 02:05 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Hi TC, this is on wiki: (Nabro)
Geology
False-color topographical relief image of the Nabro and nearby Mallahle (in Ethiopia) volcanoes.Part of the Afar Triangle, the Nabro Volcano is one of many volcanic caldera complexes in the northeasternmost part of the East African Rift valley region. The twin calderas likely formed about during an eruption of about 20 to 100 cubic kilometres consisting of ignimbrite, although the date of their formation is unknown. The subaerial volume of volcanic material within the Nabro Volcanic Range mantle plume is likely on the order of 550 km3.[2]

[edit] 2011 eruptionDespite having undergone no eruptions in recent history, the Nabro Volcano likely erupted shortly after midnight on June 13, 2011 local time, after a series of earthquakes in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region, ranging up to magnitude 5.7. The ash plume was observed on satellite drifting to the west-northwest along the border, and spanned about 50 km wide and several hundred kilometres across in the hours immediately following the reported eruption.

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1757. caneswatch 02:05 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Please keep coming, PLEASE.



Must....stop....bad thoughts LOL
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1758. PintailKiller 02:05 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?


Speculation that is was Nabro.
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1759. Grothar 02:06 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting twincomanche:
Dubbi everyone thinks (not confirmed) and if so it last erupted in 1861.



No one knows the name. Come on, if it was 11,000 years ago, I might be of some help. What volcano erupted?
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19484
1760. PcolaDan 02:07 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Grothar:
What volcano erupted?


It appears it may be Nabro in Eritrea.
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1761. TropicalAnalystwx13 02:07 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting caneswatch:


Must....stop....bad thoughts LOL


Oh Conner, your a trip.

I'm going to bed early, night all and Grothar.
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1763. PcolaDan 02:08 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi TC, this is on wiki: (Nabro)
Geology
False-color topographical relief image of the Nabro and nearby Mallahle (in Ethiopia) volcanoes.Part of the Afar Triangle, the Nabro Volcano is one of many volcanic caldera complexes in the northeasternmost part of the East African Rift valley region. The twin calderas likely formed about during an eruption of about 20 to 100 cubic kilometres consisting of ignimbrite, although the date of their formation is unknown. The subaerial volume of volcanic material within the Nabro Volcanic Range mantle plume is likely on the order of 550 km3.[2]

[edit] 2011 eruptionDespite having undergone no eruptions in recent history, the Nabro Volcano likely erupted shortly after midnight on June 13, 2011 local time, after a series of earthquakes in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border region, ranging up to magnitude 5.7. The ash plume was observed on satellite drifting to the west-northwest along the border, and spanned about 50 km wide and several hundred kilometres across in the hours immediately following the reported eruption.



The last part was just added by one of our bloggers here.
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1764. druseljic 02:08 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
1759 - lol...
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1765. CaicosRetiredSailor 02:09 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
aquaApocalypticK9

...is a bit of a mouthful

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1766. Bitmap7 02:09 GMT le 13 juin 2011    


BD enhancement of ash plume.


NHC enhancement of ash plume.
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1767. Chicklit 02:09 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
UPDATE 23:46 UTC : We are now convinced that the erupting volcano is the Nabro volcano (an official confirmation is still missing)
This is from the earthquake geeks at earthquake-report.com.

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1768. PcolaDan 02:09 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
Apocalyptic? My kinda people!

for the first time since the earthquake/tsunami, strontium has been found in the groundwater near Fukushima.

so suddenly it's 240 times the limit? when was the last time they tested? Who's been doing the testing?

Apocalyptic is my middle name.


You must be like Amy then, glued to the Armageddon (History) Channel. :)
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1769. caneswatch 02:10 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh Conner, your a trip.

I'm going to bed early, night all and Grothar.


Haha, night Cody.
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1770. CosmicEvents 02:11 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Grothar, it's a volcano named NABRO.
And, it'd big, in fact this might be the big one!.
.
.
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1771. Patrap 02:12 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
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1772. BahaHurican 02:12 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting twincomanche:
Dubbi everyone thinks (not confirmed) and if so it last erupted in 1861.
seems like some think the larger 1 to the SW is what erupted... still a couple hours to sunrise there and visible sat photos.

If Dubbi, at least we have some relatively recent reports. If the other, it becomes more of a puzzle.
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1773. Chicklit 02:12 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
We better hope Katla is not getting antsy.

Volcano ash: Threat of second volcano Katla '10 times the strength'
A second volcano in Iceland could erupt with 10 times the force of Eyjafyoll if history repeats itself, scientists have warned

LinkApr2011
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1774. aquak9 02:12 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting PcolaDan:


You must be like Amy then, glued to the Armageddon (History) Channel. :)


Actually, I'm just glued to this place.

Cosmic- thank you for spelling it out for him. C'mon, Gro, get with the program here.
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1775. emcf30 02:13 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting PcolaDan:


You must be like Amy then, glued to the Armageddon (History) Channel. :)


For those who want to get in the mood, Deep Impact is on TNT. Getting ready to hit Earth
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1776. aquak9 02:14 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Chiklet- please don't make us started spelling/saying that again.

Eye-uh-jah-ful. Elijah-waffle. Oh never mind.
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1778. ncstorm 02:17 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting emcf30:


For those who want to get in the mood, Deep Impact is on TNT. Getting ready to hit Earth


Well I watch "Knowing" with nicholas cage today..the big "solar flare" taking out earth..very good movie by the way..
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1779. emcf30 02:18 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting twincomanche:
Dubbi.


Go to Google Earth and turn on the weather overlay. It is clearly not Dubbi. It is about 16 mile SSE of that at Nabro. That is where the plume begins.
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1780. Neapolitan 02:18 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
The sun will be up in less than 30 minutes. But how long after that it will be until we get visible satellite is anyone's guess.
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1781. Grothar 02:19 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Grothar, it's a volcano named NABRO.
And, it'd big, in fact this might be the big one!.
.
.


:) So it's either Nabro or Dubbi? I am trying to get with the program. here. This could be serious.
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1782. Patrap 02:19 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
1783. Levi32 02:20 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


:) So it's either Nabro or Dubbi? I am trying to get with the program. here. This could be serious.


It appears to be Nabro, pending official confirmation. Either volcano is big news though, as Dubbi hasn't erupted for 150 years.
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1784. Levi32 02:20 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:
The sun will be up in less than 30 minutes. But how long after that it will be until we get visible satellite is anyone's guess.


Sat24 updates METEOSAT imagery extremely fast. It shouldn't be more than a half-hour after sunrise before we get the first images.
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1786. aquak9 02:21 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Grothar- it's Nabro. I'll bet a Stratus Rain Gauge on it.
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1787. Neapolitan 02:21 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
The latest METEO image shows that the plume extends nearly 400 miles (640 kilometers) to the west-northwest--and there still appears to be no thinning at the source.
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1788. PcolaDan 02:22 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


:) So it's either Nabro or Dubbi? I am trying to get with the program. here. This could be serious.

The consensus from where I get my info (and you know the source) is Nabro.
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1789. Grothar 02:22 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Levi32:


It appears to be Nabro, pending official confirmation. Either volcano is big news though, as Dubbi hasn't erupted for 150 years.


Don't laugh now, because I am being serious. There have been some geologists and volcanologist who have been fearing this type of activity there for a long time. Are you familiar with the Danakil region? I will try to find the link to the article. It is a few years old.
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1790. spathy 02:23 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting aquak9:
Chiklet- please don't make us started spelling/saying that again.

Eye-uh-jah-ful. Elijah-waffle. Oh never mind.


Ill take your eye a jarfull and raise ya a Kadaffy!
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1791. Patrap 02:23 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
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1792. aquak9 02:25 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting twincomanche:
How's that? There is hardly anyone anywhere near there.


Just because there's no humans living right there, does not mean it's not serious. Certainly you know enough tectonics to understand the possible effects.
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1793. Patrap 02:25 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
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1794. Levi32 02:25 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Grothar:


Don't laugh now, because I am being serious. There have been some geologists and volcanologist who have been fearing this type of activity there for a long time. Are you familiar with the Danakil region? I will try to find the link to the article. It is a few years old.


I am not.
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1795. blsealevel 02:25 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Quoting Neapolitan:
The latest METEO image shows that the plume extends nearly 400 miles (640 kilometers) to the west-northwest--and there still appears to be no thinning at the source.


Wow its pumping ash out in massive volumes.
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1796. Levi32 02:26 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
For some kind of a size reference, this is Pinatubo's June 15th, 1991 eruption 1.25 hours after its beginning.

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1797. emcf30 02:28 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
Nabro, has no recorded eruption and is a very large Strato-type volcano. This swarm is encircling the mountain and certainly appears to be volcanic in nature, but it is early. If it does blow, this could be a type that is season changing. Interesting times...certainly warrants attention!
1 posted on Sunday, June 12, 2011 6:02:40 PM by winoneforthegipper
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1799. aquak9 02:30 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
waiting for Gro's link, trying to behave...
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1800. Levi32 02:31 GMT le 13 juin 2011    
I just wonder how explosive the eruption really is, because I would have expected to see at least some radial expansion of the ash cloud if it was a "big one," as opposed to just a thin plume in one pointed direction.
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1801. Patrap 02:32 GMT le 13 juin 2011    

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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