Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:06 GMT le 10 juin 2011

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.

Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)

Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.

Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)

Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11

Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)

814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.

Categories: Fire

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351. tropicfreak 22:55 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting galvestonhurricane: Question, Taz. Do you use bad grammar/spelling on purpose? You have mail Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

352. tropicfreak 22:56 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: Re-ported! . . . Maybe it's because many of your posts say not much more than the above word. Do you realize how much he has been made fun of? Really? Was that necessary? Maybe he can't take this crap anymore. Member Since: 2 septembre 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6612

353. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 22:58 GMT le 10 juin 2011
bam bam bam bam bam Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

355. Neapolitan 23:04 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser: We have a cloud over South Florida! It's actually sprinkling in my part of Naples, and the sound of distant thunder is like music to my drought-stricken ears. Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11306

356. IKE 23:04 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting RobDaHood: Yeah, right! We got ripped off somewhere along the line! BTW...Hi Ike! TAZ. It's all good man...just chill and ignore! In otherwords...stay cool TAZ! Hey. i got zilch again today in rain. So much for the above normal rain in the 6-10 day period for Florida..... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

357. Tazmanian 23:05 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting galvestonhurricane: Question, Taz. Do you use bad grammar/spelling on purpose? POOF and reported Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

358. CosmicEvents 23:05 GMT le 10 juin 2011
I'm not making fun of Taz. He's a valuable member of this community. I was making a constructive suggestion for him to think about. . . Love you Taz! Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5133

359. Tazmanian 23:06 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: I'm not making fun of Taz. He's a valuable member of this community. I was making a constructive suggestion for him to think about. . . Love you Taz! thanks Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

360. NRAamy 23:09 GMT le 10 juin 2011
ok, back to 94L.... Member Since: 24 janvier 2007 Posts: 315 Comments: 31939

361. barbamz 23:10 GMT le 10 juin 2011
To switch interest in some other direction - and I tell you, it's all true; it's really dangerous on German streets and it's somehow at least climate related: Commuter Chaos Lack of Infrastructure Threatens German Cyclists By Guido Kleinhubbert Germany has never had so many cyclists, but the country lacks the infrastructure to handle the spike in two-wheeler traffic. Accident levels have increased dramatically, but experts say cities can't keep up. Much more dramatic stuff : http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,151 8,767522,00.html Concerning weather resp. drought: Germany got some thunderstorms and even severe weather the last days that mitigated drought at least in most regions. I really hope, Florida and Texas will follow; I'm full of sympathy. Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 25 Comments: 1900

362. IKE 23:11 GMT le 10 juin 2011
There it is....flipping off Florida as it passes to the east.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

363. RobDaHood 23:11 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting IKE: Hey. i got zilch again today in rain. So much for the above normal rain in the 6-10 day period for Florida..... Yeah, NWS still calling for 40% here tomorrow, but have dropped precip from over 1/2 to under 1/10. Might as well just spit on the yard. Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 80 Comments: 26392

364. Tazmanian 23:13 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting NRAamy: ok, back to 94L.... 94L RIP Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

365. shadoclown45 23:14 GMT le 10 juin 2011
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Bmhjf0rKe8 This is to save our sanity people! Member Since: 27 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

366. IKE 23:15 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting RobDaHood: Yeah, NWS still calling for 40% here tomorrow, but have dropped precip from over 1/2 to under 1/10. Might as well just spit on the yard. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

367. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:15 GMT le 10 juin 2011
01E/H/A/C1 MARK 15.47N/108.5W Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

368. ElConando 23:16 GMT le 10 juin 2011
See you too Taz btw :) Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

369. ElConando 23:16 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting IKE: There it is....flipping off Florida as it passes to the east.... :'( oh sad day. Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709

370. RobDaHood 23:23 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting IKE: heh heh heh...sorry, didn't mean to be a whiner. Catch you folks later...have a great evening. Member Since: 2 septembre 2008 Posts: 80 Comments: 26392

371. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:25 GMT le 10 juin 2011
nice and quiet now Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

372. aquak9 23:27 GMT le 10 juin 2011
oh man, I missed a troll? my old age is showing... yes there goes 94L like a giant tray of pastries and pies, and I'm tied to a tree...just barely outta reach taz I do not have you on iggy- I love having you here Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

373. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:29 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: oh man, I missed a troll? my old age is showing... yes there goes 94L like a giant tray of pastries and pies, and I'm tied to a tree...just barely outta reach taz I do not have you on iggy- I love having you here more tha 1 i believe 3 but now 0 Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

374. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:30 GMT le 10 juin 2011
MJO still expected to move into our basin for the start of July. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25963

375. IKE 23:30 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting RobDaHood: heh heh heh...sorry, didn't mean to be a whiner. Catch you folks later...have a great evening. I was teasing with you. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

376. NICycloneChaser 23:30 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: oh man, I missed a troll? my old age is showing... yes there goes 94L like a giant tray of pastries and pies, and I'm tied to a tree...just barely outta reach taz I do not have you on iggy- I love having you here Oh boy, you missed more than one. This blog looked like a warzone for half an hour. Member Since: 10 août 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1958

377. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:32 GMT le 10 juin 2011
This way...develop more and come this way!!! Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25963

378. PSLFLCaneVet 23:33 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser: If spending your evening trying to annoy people is how exciting your evenings get, then I'm sure a ban won't stop you. Nice poetry. There are some for whom this has become "sport". Agreed, this one will return, constantly. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

379. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 23:39 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting NICycloneChaser: Oh boy, you missed more than one. This blog looked like a warzone for half an hour. more like trollzone but then a hammer fell Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 147 Comments: 41332

380. barbamz 23:45 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Heavy steam (??) show at nuclear power plant fukushima right now: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/f1-np/camera/index-e .html Click to Windows Media, if it won't show up at once. Blog to follow those nuclear events: http://www.scribblelive.com/Event/Japan_Earthquak e5Link Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 25 Comments: 1900

381. TropicalAnalystwx13 23:47 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Eye isn't visible anymore...This is a Category 2 hurricane now. Member Since: 6 juillet 2010 Posts: 92 Comments: 25963

382. wpb 23:50 GMT le 10 juin 2011
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=DGTMFL Member Since: 28 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 500

383. Grothar 23:50 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting PrivateIdaho: bring it on! Where did you find that? We better stop or they will both start calling us potato-heads. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 58 Comments: 19672

384. FrankZapper 23:51 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting barbamz: Heavy steam (??) show at nuclear power plant fukushima right now: http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/nu/f1-np/camera/index-e .html Click to Windows Media, if it won't show up at once. Blog to follow those nuclear events: http://www.scribblelive.com/Event/Japan_Earthquak e5Link Is it about to blow its top of or something? Member Since: 26 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

385. IKE 23:52 GMT le 10 juin 2011
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LOW IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

386. Levi32 23:53 GMT le 10 juin 2011
12z NAEFS has elevated precipitation in the western Caribbean in 2 weeks similar to the GFS ensembles: Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25607

387. sunlinepr 23:54 GMT le 10 juin 2011
EPAC ITCZ Firing up now... Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

388. barbamz 23:55 GMT le 10 juin 2011
Quoting FrankZapper: Is it about to blow its top of or something? No, not such dramatic. But they use to release steam from the meltdown crippled units regularily. With heavy impacts to environment and people, of course. Just follow the news. Edit; F.e.: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-09/tea-from -shizuoka-exceeds-radioactive-standard-after-quake -1-.htmlFor the moment, it seems to be fog though. Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 25 Comments: 1900

389. aquak9 00:01 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Looks like heavy fog to me, Zap. But I think there's a horned, three-headed fish wandering around in the background. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

390. PSLFLCaneVet 00:03 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Grothar: Where did you find that? We better stop or they will both start calling us potato-heads. Greetings, Gro. Since we seem to have a lull, can you regale us with the tale of the first time the 'tater was cultivated, some 7,000 years past? :) Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

391. aquak9 00:04 GMT le 11 juin 2011
from Barbamz' link: while tea produced in all 18 other areas had safe levels Like I want there to be "safe levels" of cesium in my tea? And not only that, those 18 other areas were tested by the farmers themselves! No Cesium in my Teasium!! That's it, I'm boycotting imported tea. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25036

392. hurricanejunky 00:06 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: i talk about your spelling LOL you cant even spell It's obvious he's just jerkin' your chain! Member Since: 28 août 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2877

393. Tazmanian 00:07 GMT le 11 juin 2011
i send some snow for FL Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

394. hurricanejunky 00:08 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Thundercloud01221991: maybe I should write a full blog about how to work and act on the blogs here Good luck with that...whenever the usuals return you'll get piled on. Been down that road before...it's not pretty! Member Since: 28 août 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2877

395. barbamz 00:10 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: from Barbamz' link: while tea produced in all 18 other areas had safe levels Like I want there to be "safe levels" of cesium in my tea? And not only that, those 18 other areas were tested by the farmers themselves! No Cesium in my Teasium!! That's it, I'm boycotting imported tea. You're right, Aqua. But, on the other hand: Is there any product which is totally free of radiation in our times? Life is always at risk (and somehow it has ever been, lol). Edit: Watch our problems in Germany with those healthy sprouts: http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,151 8,767935,00.html Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 25 Comments: 1900

396. PSLFLCaneVet 00:11 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: i send some snow for FL Thanks, Taz! We'll welcome the gift. :) Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

397. CosmicEvents 00:15 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: There are some for whom this has become "sport". Agreed, this one will return, constantly. KOFG has been living up to his name well. Plus, look at how far we've come in eliminating the drama since....you know. All in all, it's a smoother running, more informative(props to Nea), and sometimes divertingly humorous and interesting blog this year.. Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5133

398. Tazmanian 00:16 GMT le 11 juin 2011
LOL i hop you no am olny kinding around Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111624

399. ProgressivePulse 00:16 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Where are all the west casters? Lord, I could hop on a Booze cruise and get drenched. :-( Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4443

400. sunlinepr 00:16 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Stocks Fall in Longest Dow Slump Since 2002 By Rita Nazareth and Lu Wang - Jun 10, 2011 4:12 PM AT U.S. Stocks Decline The Dow lost 137.41 points, or 1.1 percent, to 11,986.95 at 10:47am in New York, its first dip below 12,000 since March. Photographer: Jin Lee/Bloomberg U.S. stocks extended a sixth weekly drop, the longest slump for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 2002, and oil slid while Treasuries, the dollar and yen rose amid concern the global economy is slowing. Crude extended losses as OPEC said Saudi Arabia pumped the most since 2008. The Dow lost 172.45 points, or 1.4 percent, to 11,951.91 at 4 p.m. in New York, its first dip below 12,000 since March, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.4 percent to 1,270.98. Ten-year Treasury yields lost three basis points to 2.97 percent, the Dollar Index rose for a third day and the yen strengthened against all 16 major peers. The cost of insuring Greek and Portuguese debt rose to records amid lingering concern over Europe’s debt crisis. Oil sank below $100 a barrel. Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8466

401. Levi32 00:20 GMT le 11 juin 2011
A noticeable tropical wave along 42W in the central Atlantic: Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 593 Comments: 25607

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