Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:06 GMT le 10 juin 2011

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The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Volunteers
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke

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1829. pottery
Quoting Bitmap7:


Foreshocks like in Japan.

OK
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this is retarded usaully at the beginning of June it storms like crzy everyday in Fl not this year
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1826. Bitmap7
Quoting pottery:

Unusual to have the Bigger one second....


Foreshocks like in Japan.
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1824. Patrap
Magnitude 6.0 - SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
2011 June 13 02:20:50 UTC


Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time

* Monday, June 13, 2011 at 02:20:50 UTC
* Monday, June 13, 2011 at 02:20:50 PM at epicenter

Location 43.431S, 172.710E
Depth 9.6 km (6.0 miles)
Region SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Distances 13 km (8 miles) NNE of Christchurch, New Zealand
207 km (128 miles) SSE of Westport, New Zealand
292 km (181 miles) SW of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
323 km (200 miles) NNE of Dunedin, New Zealand
Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 13.9 km (8.6 miles); depth /- 2.8 km (1.7 miles)
Parameters NST= 74, Nph= 74, Dmin=17.8 km, Rmss=1.4 sec, Gp= 86,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source

* USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc000466f
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1822. pottery
Quoting RTLSNK:
There have been two of them now, a 5.2 and now a 6.0:

Mon Jun 13 2:38:47 UTC 2011


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 6.0 2011/06/13 02:20:51 -43.431 172.710 9.6 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.2 2011/06/13 01:00:00 -43.580 172.780 11.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 4.7 2011/06/13 00:25:30 39.930 143.422 29.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/06/13 00:02:37 -60.475 -56.469 14.3 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS

Unusual to have the Bigger one second....
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new 6.0 now?
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1820. Patrap
rest easy over dere.
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Quoting Levi32:
I just wonder how explosive the eruption really is, because I would have expected to see at least some radial expansion of the ash cloud if it was a "big one," as opposed to just a thin plume in one pointed direction.


Been kind of curious about this myself. But I'm not sure the IR picks up some of the lower layers what with the overcast skies. From something I just read, if this is a fissure eruption, what we could be seeing is an SO2 plume and not an ash plume.
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1818. Levi32
6.0

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1817. RTLSNK
There have been two of them now, a 5.2 and now a 6.0:

Mon Jun 13 2:38:47 UTC 2011


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 6.0 2011/06/13 02:20:51 -43.431 172.710 9.6 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 5.2 2011/06/13 01:00:00 -43.580 172.780 11.0 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
MAP 4.7 2011/06/13 00:25:30 39.930 143.422 29.4 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
MAP 4.9 2011/06/13 00:02:37 -60.475 -56.469 14.3 SOUTH SHETLAND ISLANDS
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1816. aquak9
same here pat, same here.

I gotta go horizontal- when Grothar posts the info about danakil (?) someone please ask him to wu-mail me the link.

Thanks ya'll.

Got duct tape?

Go in peace.
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25497
we getting activity at Yellowstone now? tide levels are being reported to have gone out 2 miles off of Galveston folks! what tha...


Sarcasm Flag: ON
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1814. Patrap
Thats a scale I hope we dont need later tonight and tomorrow aquak9
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1813. aquak9
oh my! mt st helens was a 5? that kinda gives me a better perspective.
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25497
Quoting RitaEvac:
Damage in Christchurch according to TWC

Well that's not good. Wishing them the best, they don't need any more quakes. Recent one was shallow too, not good.
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1811. Patrap
Mt St Helens was a 5 on the Index

5 Mount St. Helens 1980
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The planet is unzipping itself
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Quoting pottery:
This is a Good Time for me to say my first WOW.

WOW is MOM spelled upside down.
momeee!
if i didn't have a tennis lesson at 7 in the morning, i would follow this story; however, i need all the energy i can get.
goodnight and holy cow.
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1808. aquak9
VEI index, includes these lovely adjectives: cataclysmic, paroxysmal, colossal, severe, violent, terrific

Link
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1807. pottery
This is a Good Time for me to say my first WOW.
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This eruption could be a VEI4 or a VEI5 class eruption.
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1805. Patrap



Nabro Volcano %u2013 Climbing, Hiking & Mountaineering


* Elevation: 7277 ft
* Difficulty:
* Best months to climb:
* Convenient center:

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1804. Levi32
Quoting mikeylikesyouall:
nabro 2218 meters or feet? in height cause if its meters that could be big trouble with a full eurption.


Meters. 7,275 feet.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Damage in Christchurch according to TWC
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nabro 2218 meters or feet? in height cause if its meters that could be big trouble with a full eurption.
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1800. Levi32
I just wonder how explosive the eruption really is, because I would have expected to see at least some radial expansion of the ash cloud if it was a "big one," as opposed to just a thin plume in one pointed direction.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1799. aquak9
waiting for Gro's link, trying to behave...
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25497
1797. emcf30
Nabro, has no recorded eruption and is a very large Strato-type volcano. This swarm is encircling the mountain and certainly appears to be volcanic in nature, but it is early. If it does blow, this could be a type that is season changing. Interesting times...certainly warrants attention!
1 posted on Sunday, June 12, 2011 6:02:40 PM by winoneforthegipper
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1796. Levi32
For some kind of a size reference, this is Pinatubo's June 15th, 1991 eruption 1.25 hours after its beginning.

Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
Quoting Neapolitan:
The latest METEO image shows that the plume extends nearly 400 miles (640 kilometers) to the west-northwest--and there still appears to be no thinning at the source.


Wow its pumping ash out in massive volumes.
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1794. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


Don't laugh now, because I am being serious. There have been some geologists and volcanologist who have been fearing this type of activity there for a long time. Are you familiar with the Danakil region? I will try to find the link to the article. It is a few years old.


I am not.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1793. Patrap
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1792. aquak9
Quoting twincomanche:
How's that? There is hardly anyone anywhere near there.


Just because there's no humans living right there, does not mean it's not serious. Certainly you know enough tectonics to understand the possible effects.
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25497
1791. Patrap
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1789. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


It appears to be Nabro, pending official confirmation. Either volcano is big news though, as Dubbi hasn't erupted for 150 years.


Don't laugh now, because I am being serious. There have been some geologists and volcanologist who have been fearing this type of activity there for a long time. Are you familiar with the Danakil region? I will try to find the link to the article. It is a few years old.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23703
Quoting Grothar:


:) So it's either Nabro or Dubbi? I am trying to get with the program. here. This could be serious.

The consensus from where I get my info (and you know the source) is Nabro.
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The latest METEO image shows that the plume extends nearly 400 miles (640 kilometers) to the west-northwest--and there still appears to be no thinning at the source.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
1786. aquak9
Grothar- it's Nabro. I'll bet a Stratus Rain Gauge on it.
Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25497
1784. Levi32
Quoting Neapolitan:
The sun will be up in less than 30 minutes. But how long after that it will be until we get visible satellite is anyone's guess.


Sat24 updates METEOSAT imagery extremely fast. It shouldn't be more than a half-hour after sunrise before we get the first images.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1783. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


:) So it's either Nabro or Dubbi? I am trying to get with the program. here. This could be serious.


It appears to be Nabro, pending official confirmation. Either volcano is big news though, as Dubbi hasn't erupted for 150 years.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1781. Grothar
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Grothar, it's a volcano named NABRO.
And, it'd big, in fact this might be the big one!.
.
.


:) So it's either Nabro or Dubbi? I am trying to get with the program. here. This could be serious.
Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23703
The sun will be up in less than 30 minutes. But how long after that it will be until we get visible satellite is anyone's guess.
Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13260
1779. emcf30
Quoting twincomanche:
Dubbi.


Go to Google Earth and turn on the weather overlay. It is clearly not Dubbi. It is about 16 mile SSE of that at Nabro. That is where the plume begins.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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