Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:06 GMT le 10 juin 2011

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.

Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Volunteers (dhennem)

Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.

Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now (olzab2)

Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11

Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke (gilg72)

814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.

Categories: Fire

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401. Levi32 00:20 GMT le 11 juin 2011
A noticeable tropical wave along 42W in the central Atlantic: Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

402. aquak9 00:21 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Taz- I would be happy to have the snow. Barbamz- no Idea where it came from? uhh..probably run-off water, or fertilizer. My only problems with my garden are the raccoons. And I could probably safely eat them too, if I had to. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

403. bappit 00:22 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Adrian was fun while it lasted. Annular cat 4 with beautiful pics. Member Since: 18 mai 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 4385

404. CosmicEvents 00:22 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: Stocks Fall in Longest Dow Slump Since 2002 Maybe the heat got to them on Wall Street. It was 96 up there yesterday, and that's broiling in Manhattan amongst all that concrete. Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

405. FrankZapper 00:24 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: Looks like heavy fog to me, Zap. But I think there's a horned, three-headed fish wandering around in the background. Oh,OK. Yea I see it now. Kind of slimy. Member Since: 26 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

406. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:24 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: EPAC ITCZ Firing up now... the march of the storms has begun and increases from here Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40636

407. sunlinepr 00:24 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

408. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:25 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: KOTG has been living up to his name well. Plus, look at how far we've come in eliminating the drama since....you know. All in all, it's a smoother running, more informative(props to Nea), and sometimes divertingly humorous and interesting blog this year.. lol Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40636

409. PcolaDan 00:28 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: Taz- I would be happy to have the snow. Barbamz- no Idea where it came from? uhh..probably run-off water, or fertilizer. My only problems with my garden are the raccoons. And I could probably safely eat them too, if I had to. Of course you can safely eat them. You don't think Davy Crocket or Dan'l Boone would just use the hide do you? Member Since: 22 août 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008

410. PSLFLCaneVet 00:29 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: KOFG has been living up to his name well. Plus, look at how far we've come in eliminating the drama since....you know. All in all, it's a smoother running, more informative(props to Nea), and sometimes divertingly humorous and interesting blog this year.. You'll get no argument from me there, Cos. Keeper is doing a WUnderful Job. :) Nice to see you around. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

411. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:30 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting sunlinepr: once the persitant area of weather moving into sw tropical atlantic moves up and out then the gates open and a more east to west flow with a risen ITCZ will commence the tropical season Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40636

412. Grothar 00:32 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet: Greetings, Gro. Since we seem to have a lull, can you regale us with the tale of the first time the 'tater was cultivated, some 7,000 years past? :) We didn't call them that in those days. We called them ag-ag. Member Since: 17 juillet 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

413. sunlinepr 00:32 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

414. FrankZapper 00:33 GMT le 11 juin 2011
For anyone interested, The Old Farmer's Almanac forecast for Florida for June. NOTE HURRICANE RISK starts today. JUNE 2011: temperature 79 ° (2 ° below avg.); precipitation 14.5" (8" above avg.); Jun 1-3: Heavy t-storms, cool; Jun 4-9: Sunny north, a few t-storms south; Jun 10-13: Hurricane threat; Jun 14-20: Sunny north, t-storms south; cool; Jun 21-24: Hurricane threat; Jun 25-30: Scattered t-storms, warm. Member Since: 26 mai 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193

415. PSLFLCaneVet 00:33 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Tazmanian: LOL i hop you no am olny kinding around No worries, Pal. It's been very pleasant here, so far this May and June. The heat is being held well north of us. BTW, if ya wanna send at least a snow cone, or an Italian ice, we're receptive. hehehe Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

416. NOVArules 00:33 GMT le 11 juin 2011
94L is basically trolling Florida right now... Member Since: 26 août 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

417. sunlinepr 00:34 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: once the persitant area of weather moving into sw tropical atlantic moves up and out then the gates open and a more east to west flow with a risen ITCZ will commence the tropical season Some additional 10 degrees N and will be CV season start... Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

418. PSLFLCaneVet 00:34 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Grothar: We didn't call them that in those days. We called them ag-ag. LMAO Thanks for the clarification. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

419. Levi32 00:35 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Showers are teasing south Florida. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

420. barbamz 00:36 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: Barbamz- no Idea where it came from? uhh..probably run-off water, or fertilizer. My only problems with my garden are the raccoons. And I could probably safely eat them too, if I had to. Maybe, Aqua. But maybe it's more complicated. Maybe even anthropogenic (= human source: i.e. people who worked in this farm). Nature is a constant laboratory. But for sure: There is a quite chaotic and very severe situation in hospitals in northern Germany (fortunately not in our region). Some more informations (but just google "Ehec" for more) http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/06 11/1224298736466.html Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1605

421. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:38 GMT le 11 juin 2011
01E/H/A MARK 15.55n/109.1w Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40636

422. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:40 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting NOVArules: 94L is basically trolling Florida right now... pretty much Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40636

423. ProgressivePulse 00:40 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Levi32: Showers are teasing south Florida. It is quite humorous. Lack of available moisture in the drought areas? You couldn't squeeze a drip out of the soil right now. Has to be some science behind it. Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4329

424. sunlinepr 00:40 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

425. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 00:42 GMT le 11 juin 2011
well adrian made it to the triple nickel thats thats all folks Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40636

427. Levi32 00:43 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse: It is quite humorous. Lack of available moisture in the drought areas? You couldn't squeeze a drip out of the soil right now. Has to be some science behind it. It is rather interesting that Florida has been so dry in the majority of at least the last 5 years, isn't it. I'm unsure of what reason lies behind it. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25459

428. ElConando 00:43 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Levi32: Showers are teasing south Florida. So Rude!!! Member Since: 6 septembre 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3703

429. aquak9 00:43 GMT le 11 juin 2011
barbamz- (this is SO off-topic folks, sorry) it's sad because so many times, those symptoms are treated initially w/antibiotics...then the Ecoli burst, releasing a flood of toxins, and then you get severe kidney damage. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

430. barbamz 00:44 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Grothar: We didn't call them that in those days. We called them ag-ag. Hi, Groth, and hi, Dan. I had a some good laughter with you the last days. Always appreciate your comments (and a lot of the others as well, for sure!). But now I have to go to bed, it's very late in Germany (near dawn already). Have a good time! At Pentecost we usually are free of duty even at Monday in Germany ... And BTW: Adrian was a really beautiful hurricane!!! Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1605

431. sunlinepr 00:44 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

432. fatlady99 00:46 GMT le 11 juin 2011
With no rain at all up here in NCen FL, and all the smoke from the brush fires, its not happy making.... Member Since: 4 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

433. aquak9 00:47 GMT le 11 juin 2011
g'nite barbamz, peace be with you Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

434. PSLFLCaneVet 00:48 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting ElConando: So Rude!!! Roger that! Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

435. barbamz 00:51 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: g'nite barbamz, peace be with you As well with you, Aqua, Thanks ... And now Sqzzzeeeeee chrrr (or how do you snore in the the US?) Member Since: 25 octobre 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 1605

436. CosmicEvents 00:51 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Levi32: It is rather interesting that Florida has been so dry in the majority of at least the last 5 years, isn't it. I'm unsure of what reason lies behind it. I don't know what's causing it but SE Florida used to have a rainy season that you could set your watch by. Year after year, for decades, depending on where you lived, the T-storms would blow through at some point between 3-7PM. All that stopped 4 years ago. This year is so extreme it's scary. Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

437. ProgressivePulse 00:52 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting Levi32: It is rather interesting that Florida has been so dry in the majority of at least the last 5 years, isn't it. I'm unsure of what reason lies behind it. It's not the lack of tropical activity is the lack of everyday rainfall that is killing. 04/05 big cane years 06 Ernesto? 07 was dry as a bone. It's funny as I went back to my old handle that the last blog I did in March/07 was on the drought and aside from changing a couple dates, would still apply today. Very strange indeed. Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4329

438. Neapolitan 00:53 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Adrian fading, but still a respectable Cat 3: EP, 01, 2011061100, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1089W, 100, 963, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 20, 1010, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D, Member Since: 8 novembre 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 11166

439. fatlady99 00:56 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: I don't know what's causing it but SE Florida used to have a rainy season that you could set your watch by. Year after year, for decades, depending on where you lived, the T-storms would blow through at some point between 3-7PM. All that stopped 4 years ago. This year is so extreme it's scary. Up here as well. Our front acre used to be a meadow with oaks. Now it's covered with palmetto, cactus, and expanding sand pits. Member Since: 4 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

440. aquak9 00:56 GMT le 11 juin 2011
When I was little, here in NE Fla, the rains would make for fat juicy blackberries, you could pick tea-pitchers full of them. Keep bags of them and freeze them. Now all our woods can't even keep blackberry brambles alive anymore. No rain, never like it used to be. I miss blackberries. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

441. ProgressivePulse 00:57 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Maybe the monitor lizards are trying to tell us something, lol. Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4329

442. sunlinepr 00:57 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Member Since: 2 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 8447

443. fatlady99 01:00 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: When I was little, here in NE Fla, the rains would make for fat juicy blackberries, you could pick tea-pitchers full of them. Keep bags of them and freeze them. Now all our woods can't even keep blackberry brambles alive anymore. No rain, never like it used to be. I miss blackberries. We went looking for blackberries to make jam. Could only find a few stunted ones that hadn't even ripened. Hasn't been enough moisture for them to get ripe at all. No jam. At least not till July when we can buy them, but the wild ones are so much better. Member Since: 4 septembre 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410

444. CosmicEvents 01:02 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse: Maybe the monitor lizards are trying to tell us something, lol. Don't get me started...lol. I might start talking about the ants, or lack of. It's slim pickings for the birds. Of course, these days, we don't see as many as birds as we used to....... . . . This is beginning to feel like a Twilight Zone episode. . . . Member Since: 3 août 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5099

445. ProgressivePulse 01:08 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: Don't get me started...lol. I might start talking about the ants, or lack of. It's slim pickings for the birds. Of course, these days, we don't see as many as birds as we used to....... . . . This is beginning to feel like a Twilight Zone episode. . . . Just sayin'... Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4329

446. ProgressivePulse 01:10 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting CosmicEvents: Don't get me started...lol. I might start talking about the ants, or lack of. It's slim pickings for the birds. Of course, these days, we don't see as many as birds as we used to....... . . . This is beginning to feel like a Twilight Zone episode. . . . Even the snow birds are starting to thin out. However, I think this area needs a little de-population. Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4329

447. aquak9 01:12 GMT le 11 juin 2011
fatlady- you've noticed, too? we never made jam...just froze them for pies, and dumplings. Strebought are no good once you've picked them yourself. BTW, hi progreesive and cosmic...I'm making brownies...would rather be making a blackberry pie. Member Since: 13 août 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25008

448. ProgressivePulse 01:13 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Sometimes being the monkey in the middle isn't funny. Seriously, really? Maybe Ray Finkel can make it through those uprights? Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4329

450. ProgressivePulse 01:14 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting aquak9: fatlady- you've noticed, too? we never made jam...just froze them for pies, and dumplings. Strebought are no good once you've picked them yourself. BTW, hi progreesive and cosmic...I'm making brownies...would rather be making a blackberry pie. Howdy Aqua. Ummmmm love chocolate. Did you say something about blackberries? Member Since: 19 août 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4329

451. PSLFLCaneVet 01:16 GMT le 11 juin 2011
Quoting ProgressivePulse: It's not the lack of tropical activity is the lack of everyday rainfall that is killing. 04/05 big cane years 06 Ernesto? 07 was dry as a bone. It's funny as I went back to my old handle that the last blog I did in March/07 was on the drought and aside from changing a couple dates, would still apply today. Very strange indeed. I've been in the same area of ECFL for 26 years. Things have changed dramatically. As Cos said, the afternoon rains were like a fine watch, always dependable. Not so, for quite a while now. Member Since: 23 juillet 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12406

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