Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Thanks, Dr. Masters. Excellent reading; interesting times... ;-)

Good to hear the tropics are quiet

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Good to hear the tropics are quiet

I just wish we had a system out there bringing nice rain to Florida. I guess I could dream though..

thanks for update doc

hope ya got all of the gremlins out of the computer

This is where the Chile ash has gone.

Doc, what effect could the ash from Chile have on the Antarctic summer melt?

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I just wish we had a system out there bringing nice rain to Florida. I guess I could dream though..

Hanging on to the 40% today, barely.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

.UPDATE...

NO CHANGES TO EITHER THE SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM PORTIONS TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WHILE THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES
LESS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...WILL KEEP CURRENT FORECAST OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE PENINSULA
WITH MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. WHILE THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED PWATS DECREASED A BIT...OTHER REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS STILL INDICATE AN INCREASING TREND ACROSS THE REGION.
THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED SOME DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS...INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHER FACTORS THAT MAY INFLUENCE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE
12Z SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES NEAR THE
MID LEVELS.

60

&&

Thanks Dr. Masters for the up-to-date-news. And now nobody needs to have a bad conscience talking about volcanic eruptions on this blog :)

The Earth is active

it needs to eat more cheese... cheese is binding... problem solved....

Thank You, Dr. Masters.
As usual, an excellent & concise yet thorough update.

Quoting AussieStorm:
This is where the Chile ash has gone.

Doc, what effect could the ash from Chile have on the Antarctic summer melt?

Any animation like this available for the northern hemisphere?

5. FLdewey 3:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Thanks Dr. M for quieting the petulant bloggers....

that is way too big a word for Monday, dewey.....

Thanks Dr. M

Quoting NRAamy:
The Earth is active

it needs to eat more cheese... cheese is binding... problem solved....

no cause then pressure will built till well you know bang

Pretty easy to see where the wild fire is. Local MET last night said the fires enhanced the lightning and wind with the stronger storms yesterday afternoon.

And hopefully the flatulent mouthed ones also.

ewwwwwwwww!!!!!!

Chaos continues as ash clouds from Chilean volcano threaten

MULTIPLE ash clouds from the erupting Chilean volcano are moving across the Southern Ocean, threatening to ground hundreds more flights.

Massive amounts of ash will cover Tasmania as well as Adelaide and large parts of South Australia today, and may stay for several days.

Passengers are being told to get to their destinations as soon as possible before ash hits the eastern seaboard.

Qantas yesterday said it had an 18-hour window to fly in and out of Melbourne before the ash closed airspace again.

More than 60,000 passengers were delayed yesterday after major airlines were forced to cancel flights.

Rival airlines last night slammed the decision by Qantas to cancel flights and labelled the tactic a PR stunt aimed at boosting the beleaguered company's public image.

Virgin, Emirates, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are privately fuming at the Qantas decision.

"The worst possible result of volcanic ash in airspace would be the loss of an aircraft and lives," Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said.

"It is simply not worth the risk, and that's why we put safety before schedule."

After cancelling all flights in Melbourne yesterday, Qantas announced shortly after midday it was recommencing all domestic flights to and from Melbourne from 1pm. The airline said 20,000 passengers and 100 flights had been affected over the weekend.

Industry experts told The Daily Telegraph Qantas was losing $4 million every day they cancelled flights. Qantas was the only major airline to continue to ground flights.

"At the moment there are no particles in any airspace where we're flying and our pilots are even reporting in and telling us their space is clear," one airline told The Daily Telegraph.

Virgin resumed flights out of Melbourne, Tasmania and New Zealand from 7am after ordering pilots to fly under the 8500m high ash cloud.

Dr Andrew Tupper, manager of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in Darwin, said Melbourne's skies were expected to be clear by early this morning. He said the plume from the eruption of Chile's Puyehue volcano had been broken up into "clumps" by winds as it has travelled around the Earth. "It's not one big plume anymore - there are six or seven major clumps," he said.

The plume has travelled 25,000km and last night reached Perth.

Thank You Dr....."Too" much going on in the world right now between Mother Earth and Humans..... :)

Quoting FLdewey:
Central Florida's rain chances just dropped... little bit dryer than it was thought, and the mids are warmer.

Booooo!

We don't have to worry about all those little details. Just which part of the death ridge you're under. Left, right, or center!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011/

DISCUSSION...
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE EDGES A BIT CLOSER TO THE
REGION...SEE NO REASON HIGH TEMPS WON`T CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO
FROM THE DAY BEFORE. THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE BACK TO THE SW
WED/THURS AS A TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT BUILDS RIGHT
BACK IN (AND POSSIBLY STRONGER) OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z NAM12
DOES SHOW SOME SHRA/TSTM CHANCES ACROSS NE ZONES WED AFTN & EVNG
ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT RIDING SEWD BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE SW AND
TROF TO THE NORTH. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHAT FUTURE MODEL RUNS HAVE
TO SAY...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE SLIM TO NONE FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 7-10+ DAYS. 47

Sodden state to get even wetter as rains continue

TORRENTIAL rain, dangerous surf and thunderstorms will batter parts of the state today as many residents remain on flood alert.

The Hunter and mid-north coast bore the brunt of the long weekend's downpour, with falls of up to 200mm(7.8in).

Thousands of cattle were shifted to higher ground yesterday as paddocks resembled lakes, while there were traffic delays on the Pacific Highway due to localised flooding north of Coffs Harbour.

The worst is not over for residents on the mid-north coast, with the Weather Channel's senior meteorologist Dick Whitaker forecasting that more than 200mm(7.8in) would fall over the next four days while surrounding areas including the northeast inland would have lighter falls.

Mr Whitaker said major flooding was likely across these areas until Thursday.

A strong high pressure system west of Tasmania is moving very slowly east, extending a ridge across southeastern and northwestern NSW and a low pressure trough is deepening off the central and northern coasts.
A low is expected to develop off the north coast today and move south to southeast tomorrow and Thursday.

There is a flood watch for all rivers from the Tweed to the Manning while the Bellinger River was issued with a minor flood warning yesterday after 80mm(3.15in) of rain was recorded in 24 hours.

In the 24 hours until 9am yesterday Evans Head received 193mm(7.6in) of rain, Yamba 146mm(5.75in), Coffs Harbour 95mm(3.74in) and Kempsey 94mm(3.7in).

"We're expecting rain to ease during Friday, with a return to drier weather for the weekend," he said.

Meanwhile, the SES has so far responded to more than 250 requests for assistance.

Next MCS now developing over Central Iowa will likely effect St. Louis later today. Probably going to see a watch out for southern Iowa and Northeast Missouri before too long.

Quoting JeffMasters:


I doubt much effect, since it is the beginning of winter in the Antarctic, and we'll have a bunch of months of snow to cover up whatever ash deposits on the ice before summer comes to melt the ice.


Jeff Masters

I was thinking if the ash circled the South Pole and embedding it's self amongst the snow. Not just a layer of ash getting covered by snow.

Do they now to what extent the magnitude of the Nabro Volcano is as of yet? Is this volcanic eruption essentially similar to the Iceland and Chile volcanoes?... In terms of ash clouds and Sulfur and Carbon emmissions?

Don't think we've heard the last of Nabro! Her climatic eruption could be 10 times worse and penetrate the Stratosphere-causing Global Cooling!

Magnitude 6.2
Date-Time Monday, June 13, 2011 at 14:31:17 UTC
Monday, June 13, 2011 at 10:31:17 PM at epicenter

Location 2.516N, 126.438E
Depth 13.7 km (8.5 miles)
Region MOLUCCA SEA
Distances 210 km (130 miles) ENE of Manado, Sulawesi, Indonesia
219 km (136 miles) NNW of Ternate, Moluccas, Indonesia
1040 km (646 miles) WSW of KOROR, Palau
1465 km (910 miles) SSE of MANILA, Philippines

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.6 km (7.8 miles); depth +/- 5.6 km (3.5 miles)
Parameters NST=270, Nph=272, Dmin=566.6 km, Rmss=1.42 sec, Gp= 18�,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usc00046gi

Quoting weatherbro:
Don't think we've heard the last of Nabro! Her climatic eruption could be 10 times worse.

oh no! Nabro is a she?

As far as I can see, this is the first Agency's report on the eruption (AP, but still with the wrong volcano). Now the info might be spread around in the media worldwide.
http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/airlines-wat ching-east-africa-975478.html

From another blog:

Ash cloud seems to have gone up about 13 to 15 km = 13,000 to 15,000 METERS (Not feet as I originally thought).

That is VERY HIGH; take it that most intercontinental flights are only at 10,000 meters. In comparison the Chile volcano blew 8,000 to 9,000 meters and last year's Eyjafjallajökull also reached 9,000 meters. If this is truly 13,000 meters it will explain how come the ash cloud moved so VERY fast; expect to start touching on Gazza/Israel in about 5 hours. Currently the front is passing over Aswan in Egypt, gray colour, not very dense yet/anymore? Fine dust deposits noticed on cars at resorts around Lake Nasser.

Friends in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia says the sun is almost not visible since 14h00 local time; quite an eerily semi dark feeling. More black than the usual red dusty afternoon; feel like they need to go pray in mosque all day.

Quoting ILwthrfan:
Do they now to what extent the magnitude of the Nabro Volcano is as of yet? Is this volcanic eruption essentially similar to the Iceland and Chile volcanoes?... In terms of ash clouds and Sulfur and Carbon emmissions?

No one has any idea at this point due to the lack of feet on the ground.

just found this:
UPDATE 13/06 – 15:52 UTC : I am a Frenchman living in Mekele, Northern Ethiopia, East from the volcano. I found this site while trying to know where the ashes where coming from.
Waking up this morning, everything was covered by a 1mm, sometimes 2mm layer of black ashes. The sky was cloudy today, but abnormally greyish. Ashes where still in the air till noon, as I got some in my eyes a few times.

Link
NOTABLE NEWS SOURCE^
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Airlines that travel through East Africa are keeping an eye on an ash cloud after a volcano eruption in the Horn of Africa nation of Eritrea.

Spokesman Getachew Tesfa said Ethiopian Airlines is closely watching the cloud with the help of weather experts. So far no flights have been interrupted.



Germany’s Lufthansa airline is also watching. Spokesman Marco Dall’Asta says flights from Frankfurt to the capitals of Ethiopia and Eritrea may be affected by the volcano.

The Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, which advises the aviation industry about volcano eruptions, said Eritrea’s Dubbi volcano began erupting early Monday. Eritrea borders Sudan, Ethiopia and Djibouti. It has a population of about 5 million people.

blog1822comment2164 hurricanehunter27 "Link says they know the volcano that erupted."

Thanks. Up 'til now, it's pretty much been bloggers reporting what other bloggers were saying, and satellite views without landmarks.

Quoting Bitmap7:
From another blog:

Ash cloud seems to have gone up about 13 to 15 km = 13,000 to 15,000 METERS (Not feet as I originally thought).

That is VERY HIGH; take it that most intercontinental flights are only at 10,000 meters. In comparison the Chile volcano blew 8,000 to 9,000 meters and last year's Eyjafjallajökull also reached 9,000 meters. If this is truly 13,000 meters it will explain how come the ash cloud moved so VERY fast; expect to start touching on Gazza/Israel in about 5 hours. Currently the front is passing over Aswan in Egypt, gray colour, not very dense yet/anymore? Fine dust deposits noticed on cars at resorts around Lake Nasser.

Friends in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia says the sun is almost not visible since 14h00 local time; quite an eerily semi dark feeling. More black than the usual red dusty afternoon; feel like they need to go pray in mosque all day.

That's high, but by comparison, the 2009 VEI3 eruption of Alaska's Redoubt Volcano produced a column 18 km (60,000 feet) high. Column height is just one of many factors by which to judge the power of any particular eruption.

Quoting PcolaDan:

No one has any idea at this point due to the lack of feet on the ground.

just found this:
UPDATE 13/06 – 15:52 UTC : I am a Frenchman living in Mekele, Northern Ethiopia, East from the volcano. I found this site while trying to know where the ashes where coming from.
Waking up this morning, everything was covered by a 1mm, sometimes 2mm layer of black ashes. The sky was cloudy today, but abnormally greyish. Ashes where still in the air till noon, as I got some in my eyes a few times.

Quoting PcolaDan:

No one has any idea at this point due to the lack of feet on the ground.

just found this:
UPDATE 13/06 – 15:52 UTC : I am a Frenchman living in Mekele, Northern Ethiopia, East from the volcano. I found this site while trying to know where the ashes where coming from.
Waking up this morning, everything was covered by a 1mm, sometimes 2mm layer of black ashes. The sky was cloudy today, but abnormally greyish. Ashes where still in the air till noon, as I got some in my eyes a few times.

I wonder how much of this ash will get directed towards the atlantic vs. asia mainland during the next weeks. We may get a negative developement factor for Cape Verde storms this season. I'm guessing most of this ash will get shunted off to the east. Hopefully this incident was in a rural part of the country and damage will be minimal to any surrounding communities.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Sodden state to get even wetter as rains continue

TORRENTIAL rain, dangerous surf and thunderstorms will batter parts of the state today as many residents remain on flood alert.

The Hunter and mid-north coast bore the brunt of the long weekend's downpour, with falls of up to 200mm(7.8in).

Thousands of cattle were shifted to higher ground yesterday as paddocks resembled lakes, while there were traffic delays on the Pacific Highway due to localised flooding north of Coffs Harbour.

The worst is not over for residents on the mid-north coast, with the Weather Channel's senior meteorologist Dick Whitaker forecasting that more than 200mm(7.8in) would fall over the next four days while surrounding areas including the northeast inland would have lighter falls.

Mr Whitaker said major flooding was likely across these areas until Thursday.

A strong high pressure system west of Tasmania is moving very slowly east, extending a ridge across southeastern and northwestern NSW and a low pressure trough is deepening off the central and northern coasts.
A low is expected to develop off the north coast today and move south to southeast tomorrow and Thursday.

There is a flood watch for all rivers from the Tweed to the Manning while the Bellinger River was issued with a minor flood warning yesterday after 80mm(3.15in) of rain was recorded in 24 hours.

In the 24 hours until 9am yesterday Evans Head received 193mm(7.6in) of rain, Yamba 146mm(5.75in), Coffs Harbour 95mm(3.74in) and Kempsey 94mm(3.7in).

"We're expecting rain to ease during Friday, with a return to drier weather for the weekend," he said.

Meanwhile, the SES has so far responded to more than 250 requests for assistance.

My subjective impression is that Australia has had more extreme droughts and floods in the past decade, mostly coinciding with ENSO events.

Could be Australia is the meteorological 'coal mine canary', showing us what much of the rest of the world can expect as climate change progresses.

The new GFS run has picked up the storm again off the SC/NC coast this week..

Link

As I've said above: Now The Washington Post got the News from AP with the wrong volcano (Dubbi instead of Nabro). Very interesting to watch how the international news production is working - and with much delay and error!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/airlin es-watching-ash-cloud-in-east-africa-after-volcano -erupts-in-tiny-country-of-eritrea/2011/06/13/AGbh p8SH_story.html

Quoting yonzabam:



My subjective impression is that Australia has had more extreme droughts and floods in the past decade, mostly coinciding with ENSO events.

Could be Australia is the meteorological 'coal mine canary', showing us what much of the rest of the world can expect as climate change progresses.

Sad thing is the canary died a time long ago and we're still chuggin away in the mines.

Quoting yonzabam:



My subjective impression is that Australia has had more extreme droughts and floods in the past decade, mostly coinciding with ENSO events.

Could be Australia is the meteorological 'coal mine canary', showing us what much of the rest of the world can expect as climate change progresses.

We are getting back into a more normal climate here, It was normal to have a cold wet start to winter and a cold dry finish to winter. Our summer was abnormally wet on the east coast and on the west coast it was abnormally dry.

From last blog:

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link

It is really a moot point, which one it is. This whole region (Afar Triangle) is one big active area, the continuation of the Red Sea and part of the Great Rift, where Africa is breaking apart.

And BBC is following. *facepalm*
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13752433
But I stop it now. Have to leave til later.

Anyone else think the SPC needs to re-adjust the Meso discussion up to the north of Missouri? That complex of storms in Iowa is still chuggin to the east and would have to almost make a 90 degree south turn to stay west of the Mississippi. I know its riding that 850 mb warmfront to the southeast, but that front looks to be advancing to the east a little quicker than anticipated?

Quoting ncstorm:
The new GFS run has picked up the storm again off the SC/NC coast this week..

Link

Been showing that the past several runs, may need to watch it.

What I am much more concerned about is the pattern 10-15 days from now in primarily the Western Caribbean. GFS has been advertising a spectacular set-up for Arlene to develop, and it will need to be watched very closely.

Quoting barbamz:
And BBC is following. *facepalm*
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13752433
But I stop it now. Have to leave til later.

I thought if anyone would be using hard data, it would be BBC. Lazy reporting.