Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

I got .06 inches of rain yesterday.

Looks like another east-PAC system @ 114 hours on the 6Z GFS....

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 27N ANCHORED BY 1017 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
26.5N87W WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 25N WED THEN WILL MOVE BACK N TO
ALONG 28N BY FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.

oh great, that'll give the kids something to argue about this weekend.

Good morning to all. A Tropical wave is moving thru the Eastern Caribbean today and it will likely cause the all time June record of rainfall in San Juan to be broken.

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2011 IS JUST 0.40 INCH(ES) AWAY FROM BECOMING THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. THE 10.56 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JUNE ON RECORD. JUNE 1965 WAS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD
WITH A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 10.96 INCHES.

Quoting aquak9:
yeah-boy...figured ya might've read back and seen the media announcement.

Ouch on your weather, major ouch. We're only a coupla degrees off that here, and our little icon for today is SMOKE.

Good morning Aqua, I went tubing yesterday at Ichetucknee Springs, was good fun. On the rain front we had about .75 inches.
Smoke is as you say forcast for today. Last night before the storms the smell of smoke was the highest I've experienced this year.

Morning ya'll.... the Twaves that r still not getting props in the WAtl and the CAR r finding more than acceptable conditions in the EPac.... will be interesting to see if a second June EPac storm will spin up to a major....



What's left of the Twave my local wxman was watching late last week....

Scott declares wildfire, drought emergency in Fla.

The Associated Press

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida due to wildfires and drought conditions.

The declaration Monday puts the state Division of Emergency Management in charge of the situation.

That includes deploying personnel and resources of the Florida National Guard and other state and local government agencies.

The order notes extreme to exceptional drought conditions are expanding across southeastern and north Florida. They are expected to worsen in the new few weeks.

More than 300 active wildfires were burning on about 115,583 acres across the state Monday.

A small brush fire in Brevard County that was contained from last week flared up on Monday and jumped the fire lines. The fire moved into Volusia County and quickly consumed over 1200 acres burning at-least 10 homes and 38 hunting camps. The fire is 0% contained.

Quoting aquak9:
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.

oh great, that'll give the kids something to argue about this weekend.

lol

Quoting emcf30:
Scott declares wildfire, drought emergency in Fla.

The Associated Press

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida due to wildfires and drought conditions.

The declaration Monday puts the state Division of Emergency Management in charge of the situation.

That includes deploying personnel and resources of the Florida National Guard and other state and local government agencies.

The order notes extreme to exceptional drought conditions are expanding across southeastern and north Florida. They are expected to worsen in the new few weeks.

More than 300 active wildfires were burning on about 115,583 acres across the state Monday.

A small brush fire in Brevard County that was contained from last week flared up on Monday and jumped the fire lines. The fire moved into Volusia County and quickly consumed over 1200 acres burning at-least 10 homes and 38 hunting camps. The fire is 0% contained.

too late thankfully its starting to rain no way does this compare with the big fire yr that yr it did not rain to july its been beautiful here in e. fl. this yr yesterday got to a high about 89 heard it reached 100f in orlando

Does anyone from the committee know the status on the volcano on Naboo?

Well, I finally got on. Who else made it through??

Woke up to the smell of smoke outside this morning, emcf.
VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. -- Fire crews are monitoring 30 different wildfires burning in Volusia County. WFTV learned that residents are going to be dealing with all of these fires for months to come.

No matter how many tractors or thousands of gallons of water, officials said it could be months before thick smoke and flames go away for good.

"This is a mother nature thing that is going to take us inches of rain to get us out of this,” said an official....

I hear someone fiddling.

Morning All

Good drenching in Jupiter yesterday :-)

This from the Miami NWS

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN TURN, THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD,
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS.

Testing.

Looking forward to every GFS dissection on that WAVE

Quoting PcolaDan:
They should have just asked Grothar. I'm sure he still remembers how to speak it from his childhood years.

A dictionary of the extinct language of ancient Mesopotamia has been completed after 90 years of work.

They could have had my copy and saved all that work.
Back then we used to call those people,(संस्कृतम्. Served then right.

According to WFTV there are 30 different wildfires burning in my county. (Volusia)
Reposting this because WUGround is not behaving like its normal site this morning.

Sites back up

me

Quoting Grothar:
Well, I finally got on. Who else made it through??

Not me. hehehe

G'morning.

It's so hot the wunderground site was shut down for 2 hrs

Quoting FLdewey:
Better chances for rain on the East side of the peninsula today... waiting for the magic.

I got rain yesterday, the drops almost covered the hoods on the vehicles.

That was a big blog hole.

Good morning! If you haven't seen it, check out this video:
The Hurricanes Of 2004 From An Emergency Management Perspective

Ooooops....
WU
musta been way too far underground for a couple of hours...

...or perhaps
the WU Fiber wasn't far enough underground
heh heh
see below
||
\/

The long-range GFS obviously shouldn't be taken too seriously. However, it has proven to be a useful tool in the past when it is very consistent on a specific pattern in the long range. That kind of a hint can cue a forecaster into other things that may result in some kind of outcome. The goal is to find that outcome. The GFS is only one piece to the puzzle, and we very well may lose that piece if the model suddenly becomes inconsistent, which happens a lot.

Quoting RitaEvac:
It's so hot the wunderground site was shut down for 2 hrs

...its hard to find a mechanic in SF at 5am.

Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters

Thanks Dr. Masters.

Fiber cut, happens quiet often in the refineries. Causes pandomonium when people's internet and email go down.

Try this link- http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/earthquakes volcanos/ash-cloud-spreads-as-african-volcano-erup tion-eases/20074.html

Quoting Waltanater:
Does anyone from the committee know the status on the volcano on Naboo?

Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters

Thank you for letting us know what occured.

Quoting aquak9:
Ike?

Approx 1.3 inches.

Good morning and good day, wherever/whenever you might be.

Isn't it a little too early to be seeing triple digits?

Good Evening.

Sodden state to get even wetter as rains continue
NSW is coping a battering from the elements, with rain and heavy winds expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

The NSW mid-north coast is coping the worst of it, with Red Rock's Bowling Club losing most of its roof in a wild storm this morning.

The Daily Examiner reports that residents up to half a kilometre away heard a large explosion as iron from the roof cut the town's power supply.

Grinspoon bassist Joe Hansen was one of the locals who heard the roof come off, which woke him up.

He said it sounded like a "super loud bang", which was over in just seconds.

"A twister or something like that had come through...it was pretty full on," he said.
A Corindi SES spokesperson said a large weather system and strong winds ripped through the town and caused damage at Corindi and nearby Red Rock where the local bowling club lost some of its roof.

The SES has received 330 requests for assistance, with 86 per cent of these now complete, since the event began on Monday.

Most of the calls have been for leaking roofs, roof damage and sandbagging requests as well as trees down.

The Central Coast and the Hunter have been the areas with the hardest hit, although emergency services workers will today shift their focus the mid north coast.

Rain is continuing to batter the mid-north coast today and is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

According to BOM up to 115mm(4.53in) of rain has fallen during the past 48 hours to 9 am today. However, the rain intensity has increased during the past nine hours, with 50mm falling during this period.

Further heavy rain is forecast for the next 6 to 12 hours.

This rain is expected to cause minor to moderate flooding along the Macleay River at Georges Creek, Bellbrook and Kempsey from this afternoon onwards.

The flood warning for Bellinger River has been upgraded to moderate with up to 100mm(3.94in) of rain forecasted for the next 12 hours.

Although rain has eased since 6am today, further heavy rain in the order of 50 to 100 millimetres is forecast for the next 12 hours.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) a broad low pressure system is deepening on the northern coast of New South Wales.

A line of continuous heavy showers and thunderstorms is tracking in from the east in the Coffs Harbour/Woolgoolga area focusing some of the highest falls in this area for the next few hours, but homes have not been inundated at this stage.

Over the next 24 hours, BOM said the heaviest rain would remain south of this low centre over the Mid North Coast, Hunter Valley and eastern parts of the Northern Tablelands.

Further south there are about 50 rural properties isolated west of Kempsey and Port Macquarie due to closure of country roads.

There is widespread flooding on the Pacific Highway between Grafton and Kempsey and the potential for flash flooding in northern parts of the state.

Since 9am yesterday Wooli Creek has received 170mm of rain, Bellingen 159mm(6.26in), Yamba 155mm(6.10in) and Coffs Harbour 123mm(4.84in).

There are flood warnings for a number of rivers including the Hastings Manning, Orara and Nambucca.

GFS still consistent with an area of high pressure ballooning on the Yucatan Peninsula. This is a very good set-up for TC's to develop, if all other pieces of the puzzle fit.

Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters

Thank you, Dr. M. We appreciate the info.

Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters

I thought there was something wrong with my net or the connection between Australia and USA.

7.6% done hurricane season :)
0-0-0

Quoting Levi32:
The long-range GFS obviously shouldn't be taken too seriously. However, it has proven to be a useful tool in the past when it is very consistent on a specific pattern in the long range. That kind of a hint can cue a forecaster into other things that may result in some kind of outcome. The goal is to find that outcome. The GFS is only one piece to the puzzle, and we very well may lose that piece if the model suddenly becomes inconsistent, which happens a lot.

What is important to follow is if other models join the GFS scenario in next runs. If that occurs, then we have game on!

Quoting Patrap:



...its hard to find a mechanic in SF at 5am.

Especially a fiber cable specialist

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What is important to follow is if other models join the GFS scenario in next runs. If that occurs, then we have game on!

Yes, though it is also fun to try to beat the models to it, and decide whether the GFS scenario could hold water or not. That's why other clues exist besides the GFS.

-- can't breathe --

oh! hi everyone! whew. That was KREEPY

I now know why my neighborhood has flags in the yard, its flag day, go figure! Everythings a little greener today thanks to the rain last night, and now life can go on now that the wunderground blog is back up and running :)

Kempsey residents ordered to evacuate
Tuesday June 14, 2011 - 19:55 EST

The State Emergency Service has issued an evacuation order for businesses and residents in the Kempsey CBD, as the flood situation worsens.

The Kempsey Bridge is predicted to reach 6.4 metres(21ft) between 1:00am and 3:00am (AEST), which could cause the levee to overtop.

This could lead to inundation of the city centre and residents are being advised to evacuate within the next four hours.

Meanwhile, SES crews are keeping a close eye on river levels in other parts of the mid north coast, as heavy rain continues to fall across the region.

Flood warnings are current for the Bellinger, Nambucca, Orara, Macleay, Hastings and Manning Rivers, with water levels continuing to rise in some areas.

This afternoon the SES began evacuating around 400 residents in villages across the Lower Macleay as a precaution, saying those areas will become isolated later this evening.

Near Bellingen about 800 residents remain isolated in the Thora Valley.

The SES rescue officer Bill Shipp says it will be a while before the river falls.

"It could be a couple of days," he said.

"Because it takes a fair while for the water to come down - that's if the rain stays as it is, but if it gets more rain coming it could take a bit longer."

Further rain is forecast, with the severe weather expected to move slowly south.

The weather bureau is also forecasting dangerous surf conditions for coastal activities, such as swimming, surfing and rock fishing.


- ABC

I got a bit or rain yesterday too (W. Lake Worth, FL), but only about .15". I have a rain barrel set at one of our rain gutter down spouts and know that it takes ~.25" to fill up the 55 gal drum with roof run-off. It's about 2/3 filled. Hopefully we'll get some more today.

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Not me. hehehe

G'morning.

Glad to see you all made it through. Thought we got hit by a late season apocalypse.