Globe has 7th warmest June on record; Typhoon Ma-on a threat to Japan
June 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest June on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated June the 8th warmest on record. June 2011 global land temperatures were the 4th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 10th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were well above average, the 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes, from the coast of Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were 0.9°C above average, the 5th warmest such temperatures in the past 160 years. The record was set in 2010, with a temperature of 1.3°C above average.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average in June 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).
Record cold temperatures in the stratosphere
Global temperatures in the lower stratosphere, where the bulk of Earth's protective ozone layer lies, were at their coldest levels on record during June, according to both the University of Alabama and RSS, Inc. This is the second consecutive month of record cold in the stratosphere. Global warming theory predicts that in order to counter-balance the large amount of warming that occurs in the lower atmosphere near the surface when heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide are released into the air, the stratosphere must cool. Thus, a record cold stratosphere is consistent with global warming. However, the majority of the stratospheric cooling that has occurred since the 1990s is probably due to destruction of ozone by chlorine-containing gases like CFCs. Ozone strongly absorbs solar energy, warming the air around it, so if there is less ozone around, there will be less absorption of solar energy and a thus a cooler stratosphere.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization announced that depletion of the ozone layer—the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays—reached an unprecedented level over the Arctic this spring because of the continuing presence of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere, and a very cold winter in the stratosphere. The Arctic ozone declined 40% between December and March.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure entrenched over the country responsible for the heat wave will move little over the coming week, and the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily remain entrenched over the country through the rest of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave next week.
Figure 2. Typhoon Ma-on at 04:15 UTC July 15, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The small swirl at lower left is Tropical Depression Tokage. Image credit: NASA.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 4 Typhoon Ma-on is headed westward over the West Pacific Ocean, but is expected to encounter a trough of low pressure this weekend that will recurve the storm to the north and northeast, bringing it very close to the coast of Japan early next week. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 28 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm.
The Atlantic is quiet
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development through July 21.
I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
Reader Comments
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Yeah I noticed that, even with wind speeds.
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
well with wind speeds it has different averages they use. Korea and Taiwan usually try to match whatever Japan has for sustained winds.
Lol. The only person I was arguing with when I left was Snowlover and we were discussing the relative influence on global heat content between natural oscillations, like the PDO, and human effects, such as the greenhouse gas effect or altering surface albedo.
For the record, he agreed earth was warming and that we were partially influencing the global climate.
All people except those in the PH and the Pope State (Vatican), has the right to become divorced
I don't know why PH is the only big country with no divorce, either it's under the effects of Vatican or their people don't want to get divorced.
PH = The Philippines?
yup
Appreciate that. I was just wondering if the time and place of the potential had shifted west. Will look to see how it plays.
Notice that all of the lower numbers are 10-minute averages, while U.S. and China are 1-minute and 2-minute averages, respectively. There's your answer as to why they defer.
Divorce is not recognized under Philippine laws. If youre a Filipino, it doesn't matter where you get a divorce: such divorce is invalid/void in the Philippines. This is because under the nationality principle (Art. 15, Civil Code), all Filipinos where they may be in the world are bound by Philippine laws on family rights and duties, status, condition, and legal capacity. Yes, folks, you can run, but you can't hide. Nevertheless, divorce decrees secured outside the Philippines are recognized in certain instances. This is provided in Article 26 (Paragraph 2) of the Family Code, which reads in full:
ART. 26. All marriages solemnized outside the Philippines in accordance with the laws in force in the country where they were solemnized, and valid there as such, shall also be valid in this country, except those prohibited.
Where a marriage between a Filipino citizen and a foreigner is validly celebrated and a divorce is thereafter validly obtained abroad by the alien spouse capacitating him or her to remarry, the Filipino spouse shall have capacity to remarry under Philippine law.
This is where I will end my comments on divorce and abortion.
The two Systems didn't merge. Ma-On swallowed up TD09W. Ma-On has always been a very large system. Typical for WPAC Systems to be very large.
LOL...it is isnt it....does kinda calm ya,huh....
The reason why is that the water vapor satellite to me is useless when trying to determine dry air entrainment, it only shows upper moisture which doesn't represent where the highest water content can be held which is the lower and Mid-levels. And it doesn't show if a dry layer is sneaking in to pollute the cyclone.
Even total Precipitable water maps can be deceiving because they will often show high amounts of moisture throughout the tropical cyclone just because low level moisture around them is so high. However, it only takes one dry layer to sneak in and throw things off. Tropical cyclones not only need very high total atmospheric moisture content to function correctly. But even 1 dry layer in an overall very moist atmosphere can make a huge difference.
I know there are ways to get analysis graphs of all different layers of the atmosphere at once to see what moisture is like at each level, I just don't know where.
Keeper...if you can animate this one...I'll take it too....:))
Lousy weather... keeps following me around. I never get to see more than one moon :-(
JMA appears to have an extreme tendency to tweak models to choose typhoon-path predictions that least upset the wa, social harmony. So there's almost always more "surprise" on the day before landfall than there should have been.
JWTC doesn't particularly care about Japan's wa: any given typhoon ain't likely to upset folks in the US. So they tend to give out better long term predictions for the WesternPacific... and for the IndianOcean and the ArabianSea areas as well.
But the NHC cares about hurricane predictions upsetting American businesses:
eg Using straightline projections, Ike was traveling toward a passage east of the current loop eddy and heading for Houston from the time it began crossing Cuba from the Caribbean into the Gulf.
Yet the NHC kept predicting a MUCH more westward path for a passage under the current loop eddy; first predicting Mexican landfall, then predicting landfalls gradually working up the Texas coastline. And finally predicting a path toward Houston after Ike had passed on the eastern side to north of the current loop eddy... late enough to hafta shout "PANIC!" in their announcement.
There's WAY too much politics in TropicalCyclone predictions.
Only #11 and Katie developed after September.
Dude what is your fascination with Wichita Falls?
Gosh that was the stuff, huh, Skye? Have you heard anything more recent than this?
4/18/11 12:00 am - CloudSat Anomaly
The CloudSat CPR performed a programmed shutdown, on the 17th, when the spacecraft battery voltage dropped below the CPR fault level. While Ball Engineers are doing diagnostics on the spacecraft the CPR will remain in safe mode. If the recovery procedure follows previous anomaly timelines, the CPR will likely not be operational for the next few weeks to possibly a month. We will post a notice when a decision is made to reactivate the radar.
*CPR - Cloud Profiling Radar
CloudSat Home
Tropical Cyclone Carlos (located off the northwest coast of Australia in this overpass) on February 23, 2011 at 1800 UTC
:(
Oh my... I don't think I've ever seen anything so beautiful... I can't do anything but sit and watch, wondering what someone else in some other part of the world is doing at this particular moment, looking up at their sky right at this moment as I look down at them from this view... so captivating. I can't even describe...
Live coverage here.
The latest tweaks to the launch weather forecast now calls for a few clouds at 2,500 feet, scattered at 15,000 feet and a broken deck at 22,000 feet, isolated showers in the vicinity, north-northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots and a temperature of 77 degrees F.
The odds of acceptable launch weather remain at 80 percent.
Viewing: 351 - 401
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