98L may develop into a tropical depression near Florida; Ma-on a threat to Japan
A tropical disturbance (Invest 98L) has formed off the east coast of Florida, along the tail end of a cold front that pushed off the coast late last week. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical depression that will bring heavy rains to the northern Bahamas and east coast of Florida today through Tuesday. Satellite imagery shows that the disturbance has become more organized this morning, with an expanding area of intense thunderstorms, the beginnings of a surface circulation, and upper-level outflow on the east and north sides of the storm. Some rotation of 98L is also evident on long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida, but the rain showers are poorly organized and there is little evidence of low-level spiral banding. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 27 - 28°C, which is plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. There is dry, continental air over North Florida, and upper level winds out of the northwest are driving this dry air into the center of 98L, retarding development.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L.
Forecast for 98L
The models are shy about developing 98L; only the HWRF model shows a tropical depression developing. The SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, over the next five days. NHC is giving 98L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. Given the recent satellite and radar presentation of the storm, I'd put those odds higher, at 50%. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.
Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and 98L can be expected to move slowly at less than 5 mph over the next two days. The HWRF and GFDL models predict 98L will execute a clockwise loop, heading towards the coast of Florida on Monday, then looping northeastwards towards South Carolina later in the week. The track of 98L will depend strongly on how intense the storm gets; a weak system is likely to stay farther to the south, while a stronger system will "feel" upper level winds with a west-to-east component, and tend to move to the northeast, parallel to the coast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
U.S. heat wave to last at least another week
An unusually intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat wave over the majority of the U.S. continues to set numerous daily record highs. The latest long-range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models predict that the ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat wave will remain entrenched over the center or eastern portion of the country during the coming week, so the heat wave should continue for all but the Pacific Northwest through July 23. The GFS model does show that the ridge will break down some during the period 10 - 16 days from now, but such long range forecasts have low skill, and the heat wave could easily continue through the remainder of July. I'll present a more detailed look at the heat wave later this week.
Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on at 08:26 UTC July 17, 2011, over the West Pacific Ocean. The typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, with the inner eyewall collapsing and a new, larger eyewall forming from an outer spiral band. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Powerful Category 3 Typhoon Ma-on is headed northwestward towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon has weakened some over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Once this process completes, Ma-on is expected to intensify into a Category 4 storm. With water temperatures along the path of the typhoon ranging from 29 - 30°C, and wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range of 5 - 15 knots, Ma-on has the potential to hit Japan as a major Category 3 storm. The typhoon is unusually large, with winds of tropical storm force (39+ mph) extending out almost 350 miles to the north of the storm. A large portion of the south coast of Japan will receive tropical storm-force winds and large battering waves from Ma-on. Although the typhoon is currently a minimal Category 3 storm, its large size means that Ma-on has a tremendous amount of total kinetic energy, characteristic of a Category 5 storm. This means that Ma-on has the potential to bring a large and highly destructive storm to the coast on the right front side of where the eye makes landfall. If the eye remains just offshore, as some models are predicting, this storm surge will largely miss Japan, though.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just got back from the beach, Jupiter, FL. Stiff N wind creating rather large surfable breakers. A lot of people out there today.
iv noticed that also
Status:
35 Mph
1010 MB
Moving SSE at 5
77.4 W ; 27.6 N
Hard to say, but I tend to believe that this will move southwest to west and possibly into Florida. Reason being is that the system currently is in a weak steering environment, but all forecasts across Florida from all the NWS offices suggest ridging building in over the area which would force the system more to the west. I'm not buying the northern model solutions.
Well that is possible too. According to RUC analysis, an 850mb isotherm still slices right through 98L's center, and it is still attached to a front. As long as it has the front, they won't upgrade it.
Agreed
Man this blog is going 100 mph
OMG "Now Thats Funny"
Still Laughing at you.... Well Said.....
Taco :o)
I don't think there is a 40% chance.
Out to sea hopefully.
27.500N 78.333W
1012.5 mb(~ 29.90 inHg)
From 304° at 31 knots
(From between the WNW and NW at ~ 35.6 mph)
33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph)
A new shortwave cuts across the Atlantic in 48 hours or so, renewing the northeastward pull on the system, which should take it slowly on out. The models are in just about unanimous agreement on this now.
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 19:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
Mandatory Data...
Observation Time: Sunday, 19:48Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.3N 78.0W
Location: 134 miles (215 km) to the ENE (72°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 190 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 230° at 17 knots (From the SW at ~ 19.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 25°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 23°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1014 mb (extrapolated)
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 230° at 25 knots (From the SW at ~ 28.7 mph)
I dunno, 40% to me means "keep an eye out"....70% would be more like "recheck supplies"... lol
Not quite, as they found west winds right as they entered the lowest pressure.
C'mon...it looks like a duck, smells like a duck.....throw some orange sauce on it and serve it already. And bring out those 20 plates of crow.
I thought I was in charge of the duck-calling around here.
thanks we just have to wait watch and see but the more se it goes then the high pushing it west where about you think this will take place aroun 26 0r 25 n tia
Takes it out to sea
TD2!
invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al022011
We now have at least Tropical Depression 2.
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest98
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Early Model Wind Forecasts
They can spin up out of NOWHERE.
Which one?? NWS Miami agrees w E movement as of 2pm discussion, and Melbourne says nothing about it moving over the state. Sorry.
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