Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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The name of a Shuttle shouldn't have made a difference. All were built in California, and all were launched from Florida.
As for Patrap pointing out NASA's requirement that they be decommissioned&refurbished in Florida, ain't gonna touch that: 'd torque off too many nice folks. Plus this ain't the place to get into a detailed argument about NASA's management vs NASA's mission.
12Z at the bottom.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
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700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 53 50 42 47 47 43 38 35 40 43
That is a good point.
that would make it the second storm of the month. That would also make it the THIRD of the year. That would also fit right in with my forecast of 3-5 storms June/July that I posted on my Facebook site. Now would you look at that. I forecasted 3 storms for July.
This is the official quote from my note back in June
July typically is more active than June and historically has seen 2-5 tropical storms in 7 out of the past 15 Hurricane Seasons. 2005 is most notable for spawning the worst July Hurricanes with Dennis and Emily. In fact, Hurricane Dennis is the only Major Hurricane to strike the United States in the month of July over the span of the last 15 years. I believe that this July will not be like 2004 when we didn’t have a storm at all. I just can’t see the current activity in the tropic as slowing down by July. My outlook on July would be 3 Storms, 2 Hurricanes and at least one of them being a Major Hurricane but possibly as many as two.
Neither do I. Straight south.
And you do know what the term Guaricandilla means, right?
What's creepy is ever since you mentioned it I keep seeing cashews too....
WTNT42 KNHC 180238
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MADE TWO ADDITIONAL PASSES
THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
2100 UTC NHC ADVISORY. DURING THOSE PASSES...PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 43-45 KT WERE RECORDED ALONG WITH A FEW BELIEVABLE SFMR
SURFACE WINDS JUST ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME. MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
THAT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY
SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND SHOWS PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING
BETWEEN 24-36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND 36 HOURS WHEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE.
BRET HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
LONGER-TERM MOTION YIELDS 145/2. THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BRET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AS BRET GAINS LATITUDE IN
2-3 DAYS...IT SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST HWRF AND GFDL MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A TRACK MUCH
CLOSER TO THE UNITED STATES THAN THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 27.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 27.7N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 28.5N 77.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 29.7N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 30.7N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 32.5N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 34.5N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 36.5N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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"Cindy might be back for Revenge"
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Coordinates: 30.4667N 88.6W
Acft. Static Air Press: 555.6 mb (~ 16.41 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 5,088 meters (~ 16,693 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 135° at 20 knots (From the SE at ~ 23.0 mph)
Air Temp: -0.4°C* (~ 31.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 21 knots (~ 24.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
Mission 2 in the air. should be an interesting one!
In the last day or so they backed off on this idea, so I guess that is "missing" the system. But its not a full blown miss, there was definitely clear indication from the models that we would have to watch the trough as it stalled over the region.
Was wondering the same thing. According to the 11PM advisory TS winds are only about 60 miles off the coast. Still pretty close despite it's forward speed. Though at its current strength I doubt a watch/warning would make much difference for any of the islands, especially with the anticipated northward movement.
I see a due south motion there.
Its going to be interesting to see when Bret commence that NE movement.
Direction of Travel: E (90°)
Location: 25 miles (40 km) to the ESE (123°) from Mobile, AL, USA.
well on the way!
lol...ok..I might have a few more F5's in me.
Due to the religio-machismo of the Cubans who made the twist on its origins, it's quite a bit ruder than the usual translations imply.
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