Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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Hey, it's a small place. lol
oops I guess Bret didnt count
Link
Hurricane Ernesto initial projected path:
Actual track:
Time: 2300
Position: 29 10.00 N 80 54.47 W
4 nm ESE Daytona Beach, FL.
Course: 159 True
Speed: 6.8 Knots
Seas: 4’ – 5’
Wind: ESE 15 – 20
Baro: Malfunctioning
night all...
SURFACE WINDS JUST ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME. Justifying the techinal requirements for calling the TS I but never thought they would use the term "believable"; makes you think there was a little bit of debate over there as to the call.
I'm off now, but looking to see more of u as the season progresses...
you should have shown Hurricane Jeanee of 2004 "She did that loopy thing"
People thought she was going out towards sea too.
I'm not arguing that but the projected path always can shift left or right a good distance. The main point is that the US coast should keep watching in case.
Good to see you too! And yeah the ragged ones tend to pull surprises so we could see a more impressive storm in the morning. I hope to try to spend some more time on here when I get the chance, but have a good one!
That's awesome! My kids will love this.
Yes and the NHC mentioned them but discounted them as of now.
" THE LATEST HWRF AND GFDL MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A TRACK MUCH
CLOSER TO THE UNITED STATES THAN THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK."
All due respect however, if you look at the actual path to the SE Cuba coast, Ernesto was on the extreme right side of that initial cone.
Even if there is a shift in the track, all the moisture is going to be on the right side of Bret. There is a tremendous amount of dry air and subsidence over the SE US, so this is not going to be an issue for anyone.
Current
-3hrs
buzzkill
buzzkill
Press, what are you still doing up - hopefully watchin the Mighty 5 !! No Bret for the Lowcountry, although another dose of rain wouldn't hurt.
Hey phillies!! Long time no see! How have you been?
How is that not a tropical storm? Please, quit down talking the NHC as if you could do the job better.
yup....keep things a little cooler
Btw, Running on Nightly now and loving it. Thanks for turning me on to it!
Airglow waves captured by the Illinois imaging system over Hawaii. The red line represents the location of the ocean-level tsunami at the time of the image. (Credit: Image courtesy of University of Illinois College of Engineering)
ScienceDaily (July 14, 2011) — Researchers at the University of Illinois have become the first to record an airglow signature in the upper atmosphere produced by a tsunami using a camera system based in Maui, Hawaii.
The signature, caused by the March 11 earthquake that devastated Japan, was observed in an airglow layer 250 kilometers above Earth's surface. It preceded the tsunami by one hour, suggesting that the technology could be used as an early-warning system in the future. The findings were recently published in the peer-reviewed Geophysical Research Letters....
Link
How much turbulance you happen to experience in your little trek over the storm, and how poor the storm looks on satellite imagery, convection-wise, has absolutely nothing to do with storm classification.
adios
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