Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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That may no longer be the case as these are fairly old model runs (8pm EDT), but at the time when the models were run, this is what the BAM suite was indicating...intensification would allow it to move more the NE, but if it intensified even more, then it would actually go to the west.
All opinions are welcome just as long as their civil. This is all a learning community pretty much.
your right, never seen a sat presentation like that for strong TS
indeed it does, this may bode well for florida
your right, not short term anyway.
yes
CMC muestra algo pasando bien la norte de las antillas....
and UKM
In order for the forecast to be correct, we will need to see northward motion within the next 24 hours with Tropical Storm Bret, which is showing no signs of doing so yet. If not, then this could become a different ball game as ridging will build in and the trough will be exiting.
I'll say I give it a shot to bomb. Not much of one, but I'd say at least a 1 in 4. It's sitting over a decent pool of water, the sheer isnt going to stop it. The real limit seems like it'd be the dry air to its NW, but it looks like it has enough of a buffer to not worry too much.
I think it's a waiting game til morning, see how he reacts to that big new CDO. False color shows what looks to be two hot towers in the e and s with the S being the more impressive. Keep an eye on those and we'll see how he likes the new steering layers.
000
UZNT13 KNHC 180653
XXAA 68078 99271 70778 08077 99001 27415 23009 00010 27415 23009
92698 22601 19007 85439 21657 35503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80637
61616 AF308 0202A BRET OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 2713N07781W 0639 MBL WND 22509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22
507 000849 WL150 23009 083 REL 2713N07781W 063743 =
XXBB 68078 99271 70778 08077 00001 27415 11934 22801 22888 24057
33850 21657 44849 21457
21212 00001 23009 11927 18507 22919 20010 33864 29504 44849 36003
31313 09608 80637
61616 AF308 0202A BRET OB 09
62626 EYE SPL 2713N07781W 0639 MBL WND 22509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22
507 000849 WL150 23009 083 REL 2713N07781W 063743 =
;
El CMC muestra un pedazo de energía desprendiendose de la parte superior del disturbio y no el disturbio como tal, por eso lo pasa tan al norte.
Seems that I'll have a disturbance in my area just in time to ruin a long weekend. -.-
time will only tell...
I am on my blackberry and can't really make that out on my screen. What does it show? Thanks
my eyes are crossing too, goodnite
Yea, I don't think it will reach that intensity either. Maybe cat 1, but a major hurricane is extremely unlikely.
creo que hay que prestarle bastante atencion a esa onda
I remember staying up through the night and into the late morning for Tropical Storm Bonnie when it came through our area last year. Screwed up my sleep cycle for weeks. lol
euro 00z
is showing a strong tropical wave or tropical depression (i do not know) near PR
URNT12 KNHC 180700
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL982011
A. 18/06:37:30Z
B. 27 deg 07 min N
077 deg 48 min W
C. 850 mb 1448 m
D. 45 kt
E. 334 deg 7 nm
F. 101 deg 46 kt
G. 003 deg 11 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 15 C / 1466 m
J. 22 C / 1462 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 0202A BRET OB 08
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 05:16:00Z
Curvature North and East. Heavy rain inbound from NE.
;
Of course, especially with it being so close to home. I still think that Florida needs to keep a good eye on this storm since I'm not so sure about the weakness really coming in.
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,462m (4,797ft)
Very strange for a weak TS...
Scaled this back to the last 12hr model error since Bret is so young. So who's in the lead?
GFDN out front with a ~8nm error, slight lead over AEMN & AP01 (~10). AVNO, HWRF & NGP2 chasing with ~14/15. Unfortunately I got nothing on how the BAM models are doing.. NAM is doing better than usual with ~21, rest of the majors are trailing GFDL 33, CMC & NGPS 45.
In comparison to the 2AM advisory data, the storm seems to have moved to the east some.
east?
Corrected. Thanks. lol
No problem haha
My mistake. lol
Me too.
I'm about to get a bit of rain from Bret. Low clouds, lit somewhat red from Melbourne's lights, flying in with the occasional cloud to ground lightning strike.
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