Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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02L/TD/B/CX
MARK
28.13N/78.11W
Blog update:
Special Tropical Tidbit for Sunday, July 17th, with Video
True. But this now reopens the barrel of anacondas concerning strong tropical waves in the deep tropics which don't get the benefit of the recon but have an excellent satellite representation and evidence of tropical storm conditions but because there are no direct observations they don't get named. This creates lots of confusion about the naming of tropical storms.
A GOOD
B FAIR
C AVERAGE
D POOR
Have any other models developed this wave?
upgrades will come out 8pm or 11pm tonight
E vary poor
*Special Upgrades
C
From only 40% at 2pm when the system was looking in great shape to a TD at 5pm and possibly a TS at 8pm
oh
(~ 29.79 inHg)
A.
But possible TS Bert...not so good. :)
nop he gets a C
yeah, thats why I'm not bashing the models because I posted those model runs in the blog..the low did set up more south but that was to be expected with the front and the trickery of these types of set ups
A+
Coordinates: 27.7833N 77.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 991.8 mb (~ 29.29 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 185 meters (~ 607 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.6 mb (~ 29.93 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 60° at 36 knots (From the ENE at ~ 41.4 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C (~ 64.4°F)
Dew Pt: 17.3°C (~ 63.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 54 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 51 mm/hr (~ 2.01 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
WOW!! no suspect data in this reading
Excellent explanation, as always.
Thanks Levi
but nope i did not say nothing AT ALL
Thunderstorm activity remains quite weak for the moment. Intense would be -70C or colder cloud tops (red colors)
I have all the answers!
(99% incorrect though when it comes to weather)
Except for the RR's of 2"/hr
What's your opinion on Bret, Geoff?
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