Tropical Depression Two forms from Invest 98L
Tropical Depression Two (TD2) formed from Invest 98L this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters flew into the suspect area and found a surface circulation north of the Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. They also determined the system had become warm core—a characteristic that must be present in order to declare a tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery continues to show the system is becoming more organized with a stronger circulation. Wind shear is forecast to remain favorable for the system until Tuesday or Wednesday when higher shear will slide in from the north. Sea surface temperatures are warm enough to sustain a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Two in the Atlantic, east of Florida. This graphic will update to the current satellite imagery.
Figure 2. Official 5-day forecast for Tropical Depression Two. This graphic will remain current.
Forecast for TD2
The models are coming into better agreement as TD2 has become more organized. In terms of dynamical forecast models, the HWRF and GFS both forecast TD2 to max out just above tropical storm strenth. HWRF intensifies TD2 to around 47 mph in the next 24 hours, whereas GFS is a bit slower to bring the system up to tropical storm status. Two statistical models, the DSHP (SHIPS model that includes land interaction) and the LGEM (Logistical Growth Equation Model) both intensify TD2 to a moderate tropical storm over the next 2-3 days.
There tends to be a lot of uncertainty involved with tropical cyclones that form under these circumstances, but our forecast remains in line with the National Hurricane Center and the reliable forecast models. TD2 will move slowly to the northeast in weak steering currents over the next few days before eventually becoming an extratropical storm. There is minimal chance that this system will cross over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Timing and path depend heavily on how intense the cyclone gets, as Jeff mentioned in his blog earlier today. A weaker storm will tend to stay south, whereas a stronger storm will grow taller in the atmosphere and winds at higher levels will influence it and steer it northeast.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 23.
Angela
Reader Comments
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ATCF (every 6hours)
06pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 156.0degrees(~SouthSouthEast)
12amGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w , 167.4degrees(~midway SSE&dueSouth)
06amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w , 56.0degrees(~midwayEastNorthEast&NorthEast)
NHC (every 3hours)
09pmGMTto12amGMT : 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w , 90degrees(dueEast)
12amGMTto03amGMT : 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w , 90degrees(dueEast)
03pmGMTto06amGMT : 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w , 180degrees(dueSouth)
06amGMTto09amGMT : 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w , 69.5degrees(~EastNorthEast)
09amGMTto12pmGMT : 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w , 41.7degrees(~NorthEast)
Copy&paste 27.7n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.4n77.5w, pbi, fpo, 27.5n78.2w-27.5n78.1w, 27.5n78.1w-27.5n78.0w, 27.5n78.0w-27.1n78.0w, 27.1n78.0w-27.2n77.7w, 27.2n77.7w-27.4n77.5w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Bret
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)
Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)
Pat, when you are done with it send it to Texas ...
That be da plan.
I wouldn't put much faith in a forecast beyond 5 days, with days 4 & 5 being highly speculative. There's no reason to go out further than that except to show you what could be. There is no guarantee of a trough on the coast next Sunday.
Unlikely. there isnt any cool air to the north thru the weekend. crank up the AC.
WestBank here got over 6 in this am already from it.
Looks like outflow with the dry air invading the level under the outflow. Sort of like mid level dry air working in. Didn't we have a storm last year that had dry air undercutting the outflow?
From looking at all the names on my ignore list, he's more obsessed with his name, and trying to find new ways to stay off of the lists.
At least he's easy to spot...
It's gone from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana, it might as well come on over to TX and meander around for a few days
A short landfall is predicted to cross southernmost Wakayama a bit west of SHM airport
before Ma-on heads westward out into the ocean
Copy&paste 21.1n137.9e, 21.8n137.1e, 22.7n136.3e, 23.4n135.6e, 24.4n134.6e-25.2n133.8e, 25.2n133.8e-26.0n133.4e, 26.0n133.4e-27.0n133.2e, 27.0n133.2e-28.3n133.2e, koj, shm, hnd, sdj into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
I think i heard the texans saying this:
(in a high pitched cute voice) YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yep. Just give it a day Txjac. :)
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY. ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE ACRS SE TX. WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
looks to be banding to me. The eastern side is pretty well organized. This is going to be a small hurricane if it doesn't get any bigger. That is IF it becomes a hurricanes.
WOW! we may have 2 storms at once! and then merge into a superstorm and affect the fish!
WOW
Do you have an idea as to which direction the low over LA/Miss might be traveling? I live in Houston and I'm cautiously optimistic for the rain but also a little concerned about flooding. Boy we haven't said that word in a long time:)
My bad, posted old image
Someone call the SciFi network...we've got a new script for them...Category 7: Disaster in Freeport. Someone check Debbie Gibson's calendar!
On the weather side, I show up this morning and find out there's a tropical storm not to far off the Palm Beach County shore...wouldn't know it from the sun being out!!
No, read that again.
Certainly one to watch
The Low seems to be following the Guidance WEST today
I think you mean east.....
With all due respect. I strongly believe that your brother is smoking the wrong brand of cigars
Ma-on's probably embarrassed enough about raining on Japan's Women'sWorldCupChampionship victory parade without adding injury to faux pas.
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