Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas
Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.
Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.
Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.
Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Eye is tight.
It's not, it's right in between two High pressure systems. They follow the clockwise flow around high pressure systems.
PDO- maybe in motion, who knows. It will have changed things.
For the East Pacific though, it's hard to say how much the initial 2 to 3 months is an indicator of the future. Last year, we had Darby by late June. Ahead of this year.
July, August, September, October, November had a gigantic three storms, Estelle to Frank.
Now, last year had a strong La Nina and we do not this year. Last year could've had a bit of reverse Atlantic 1997 East Pacific style.
This is a bit of new territory for the EPac, we've probably not had sufficient exposure to how the basin acts under PDO- conditions.
Bret is currently taking advantage of a light shear environment and extremely warm sea surface temps. Bret could intensify quickly the rest of the day.
Shear Map reveals only 5kts over Bret:
So we could have an hurricane by 1100pm bulletin then.
Just like this mornings hour long discussion. Bret is not a fish. The COC went directly over several islands of the Bahamas last night and this morning.
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (311°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
LMAO
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 19:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 02L in 2011
Storm Name: Bret (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 19:29:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°09'N 77°04'W (28.15N 77.0667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 209 miles (337 km) to the ENE (62°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,406m (4,613ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the W (271°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 5° at 53kts (From the N at ~ 61.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,536m (5,039ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the west quadrant at 19:26:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NW (311°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
PRELIMINARY, DO NOT RETRANSMIT
OOOPPPPS
We could have a hurricane before the hunters leave if it keeps strengthening. We'll see.
That's peculiar.
and lol - someone on board has itchy fingers.
I never even noticed that, it is a lot like 1997 in the Atlantic. EPAC does peak a lot earlier, July to September.
I've also noticed EVERY season since 1995 was either well below average or just at average, kind of like how the Atlantic was in the 70s-80s-early 90s. Before that the EPAC was very active every season, like the Atlantic is in the current period.
Splash Location: 27.94N 76.86W
Splash Time: 19:40Z
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1004mb (29.65 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F) 210° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)
1000mb 37m (121 ft) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.6°C (74.5°F) 210° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)
925mb 719m (2,359 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 230° (from the SW) 58 knots (67 mph)
850mb 1,452m (4,764 ft) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 16.6°C (61.9°F) 230° (from the SW) 61 knots (70 mph)
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
I wouldn't expect the feature to last very long.
recon data
Link
Link
Click Here To See Eye
Oh well XD
Never??? That would be horrible, Florida would look like Death Valley...
Unofficially a 70mph TS.
That data at least looks like it stacks up a bit better.
MARK
28.25N/76.98W
Hard to develop when it's over land. :-D It will only be a rain maker as it slowly drifts west and dissipates.
Splash Location: 27.94N 76.86W
Splash Time: 19:40Z
Release Location: 27.92N 76.88W View map)
Release Time: 19:38:53Z
Significant Wind Levels...
963mb 225° (from the SW) 64 knots (74 mph)
No. It is a very tight system so winds may be upgraded at the 5pm advisory, but 998mb isn't going to give us a hurricane.
Just going off of the Vortex message...
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Time of Latest Image: 201107181945
Could the size of Bret have something to do with its position between two high pressure systems?
Latest WV shows its not an eye at all, more of a dry slot.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
Yeah, I'm thinking they might go with 60 from the ATCF estimate or 65 in light of the new recon data. They will probably ignore the 69 mph reading even though it was used in the vortex message.
I was just trying to guess what the NHC would do with the data. I really doubt they will give it 70mph.
I'm not sure that I understand what you mean.
'Towers in the Tempest' is a narrated animation that explains recent scientific insights into how hurricanes intensify. This intensification can be caused by a phenomenon called a 'hot tower'. For the first time, research meteorologists have run complex simulations using a very fine temporal resolution of 3 minutes. Combining this simulation data with satellite observations enables detailed study of 'hot towers'. The science of 'hot towers' is described using: observed hurricane data from a satellite, descriptive illustrations, and volumetric visualizations of simulation data. The first section of the animation shows actual data from Hurricane Bonnie observed by NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft. Three dimensional precipitation radar data reveal a strong 'hot tower' in Hurricane Bonnie's internal structure. The second section uses illustrations to show the dynamics of a hurricane and the formation of 'hot towers'. 'Hot towers' are formed as air spirals inward towards the eye and is forced rapidly upwards, accelerating the movement of energy into high altitude clouds. The third section shows these processes using volumetric cloud, wind, and vorticity data from a supercomputer simulation of Hurricane Bonnie. Vertical wind speed data highlights a 'hot tower'. Arrows representing the wind field move rapidly up into the 'hot tower, boosting the energy and intensifying the hurricane. Combining satellite observations with super-computer simulations provides a powerful tool for studying Earth's complex systems.
Viewing: 601 - 651
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