Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas
Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.
Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.
Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.
Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Nahhh, ya must have got the wrong memo - everyone was preparing for Casey's release, not Bret... ;)
if you spent a lot of money at home depot over a system that was never forecast to be more than a possible ts... that's your own fault...lol...
wow, is the blog doing ok now after being over ran earlier...bret gonna put on a show for us tonight?
Nah, Ants are on tha run, monsoon getting ready to come in
Woooh. I can't even imagine Heat Index 130. Stay inside with the AC on!
This was pretty impressive moving in, too.... I was up east when it moved in and was fascinated to watch the showers pedestal out from the cloud. Later, on my way home, I got caught in some torrential downpours on the south side of the island. The lightning is pretty terrific - both sheet and the regular kind out there making it a bad idea to be outside right now...
That's an impressive eye. Bret can't be far off hurricane strength. I reckon he'll make it to 75-80mph.
Personal weather station probably next to a 99 cent cleaners store, causing high dewpoint
Highly unlikely.
Evaporative cooling towers cease to be effective near that high of a dewpoint.
A map:
(click for full size)
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
LOL... looking at that blowup of convection overhead, I'll bet some pple here are wishing they'd extended them to Nassau instead.... :o)
Have to admit there's no serious wind with this, though.
It's a pretty small storm, and the NHC's cone of uncertainty keeps it well off the Outer Banks, even at the westernmost point. It's unlikely that Bret will give many problems to North Carolina.
Who said that?
I dunno. I remember a long time ago being in Jeddah Saudi, right on the Mediteranian, 43C with 90 percent humidity... what heat index would that be??? I just know it was aweful and stiffling.
Heyyyy!
got a link?
Not really sure how a trough could pull it westward, troughs across the northern US/Canada just pull them back out to sea, to the northeast. Don't stay up all night, it's not likely to happen, even if it did it wouldn't be land falling on Florida until tomorrow afternoon. Really doubt it's possible.
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