Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas
Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.
Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.
Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.
Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Don't worry, I'll make sure everyone over here in Ireland knows about the risks of Bret....
Reason for fading to the red x is that the site being referenced no longer has the picture or its name changed. If it's not copyrighted you could save it and upload to WU. If it's copyrighted, oh well.... just check your blog and update it when the red x shows up.
I'm tired of the smoke already. I don't want wind damage, but it sure would be nice if Bret drops some rain on NC.
That makes sense considering how wet that part of the country has been for months. My folks live in SE IA and their local reporting station has 101F, 77 dewpoint, 119 heat index
A. It's not 99L, it's a tropical wave.
B. It won't be anywhere near Florida for at least a week.
Either calm down or stop trolling.
No, we here in FL have put up the shower curtain shield.
NEVERKNOW is a troll and is baiting you and you all keep swallowing the bait.
How long will it take you to figure it out.
2 hours ?
3 hours ?
Not taking any risks, headed for the hills tomorrow...
SARCASM FLAG: [ON]
Pretty much just got it lol.
not sure but some in too keep a eye on a wave looking vary good
Forgot: some people save copyrighted pictures from the internet and then put them on photobucket or any number of photo save sites... that's still a technical violation of copyright... that makes it 'yours' even though it is the intelectual property of someone else. Just link to the photo on the net so proper credit is there and it should be safe. Disclaimer: this is not legal advice, consult with an attorney if you have any questions.
could someone explain the phrase, and is that what Bret is doing? was just looking at CONUS WV loops, impressed by the size of this High over the midwest, and wondered if Bret is benefiting from being on it's circulating edge?
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that would be "McLowe's"
and that would be ME
but no, I am not NEVERKNOW
from a weak sytem rather than a strong system.
nope...uses small words.
I can't even remember a tropical storm in VA during July.
Yep, my folks are in Ft Madison, about an hour east/southeast of Ottumwa. More of the same for at least the next 3 days.
Pretty big shot, look at the eye. Centering in the convection.
I think Bret is gonna be a Cat 1 by tomorrow morning. Impressive structure, eye looking more defined and very obvious on visible imagery. I don't think he's far off being a hurricane now. Shame recon is on its way home, would love to have another pass at the centre.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
300 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2011
ALTHOUGH S CENTRAL TX WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PERSISTENT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SILENT 10S FOR POPS.
I think he's just some kind of noob. But he reminds me of Jason... except not very obsessed with T-waves.
I think he just ran off to hide in his closet after I asked that question.
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