Tropical Storm Bret forms near the northern Bahamas
Tropical Storm Bret formed last night over the Northwestern Bahama Islands, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to the northernmost Bahama Islands today and Tuesday, as the storm drifts slowly to the north-northeast. Bret's formation date of July 17 is two weeks ahead of the usual formation date for the Atlantic's second storm of the season, which is August 1. The latest data from the Hurricane Hunters, taken between 4 - 5am EDT, showed a 100-mile wide area of tropical storm-force winds in excess of 39 mph affecting only the northernmost Bahama Islands--the Abacos. A personal weather station on Great Abaco Island recorded a wind gust of 48 mph at 12:23 am today. Satellite imagery shows that Bret has not improved in organization this morning, thanks to dry air to the northwest that has been blown into the storm's core by upper-level northwesterly winds. long-range radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows that Bret is currently dumping very little rain over the Bahamas, and one thin rain band from the storm is affecting the Florida East Coast with rainfall amounts less than a quarter inch. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures are 28 - 29°C, which is 2°C above the 26.5°C threshold needed to support a tropical storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Bret.
Forecast for Bret
None of the models develop Bret into a hurricane. though the GFDL model has it coming close. Given the current ragged appearance of the storm, plus the forecast by the SHIPS model that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 25 knots, by Tuesday morning, it is unlikely Bret will become a hurricane. NHC is giving Bret a 22% chance of developing into a hurricane by Tuesday.
Steering currents are weak off the coast of Florida, and Bret can be expected to move slowly near 5 mph through Tuesday, before the storm gets caught in a trough of low pressure and lifted northeastwards out to sea. It currently appears that the only land areas that will be affected by Bret will be the northernmost Bahama Islands, today and Tuesday.
None of the reliable models predict tropical cyclone development over the remainder of the Atlantic through July 25.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Typhoon Ma-on from NASA's Aqua satellite taken July 18, 2011. Image credit: NASA.
Weakened Typhoon Ma-on headed towards Japan
Typhoon Ma-on has weakened to a large Category 1 storm as it heads towards Japan, and is expected to brush the east coast of the main island of Honshu on Tuesday. The typhoon weakened over the past day, thanks to an eyewall replacement cycle where the inner eyewall collapsed, and a new, larger eyewall formed from an outer spiral band. Ma-on was expected to intensify once this process completed, but the eyewall replacement process significantly disrupted the storm, and it is unlikely Ma-on will be able to recover. This is good news for Japan, since Ma-on is a huge storm with tropical-storm force winds that extend 225 miles north of the center.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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12z isn't out yet, probably within an hour or so.
0z showed nothing new of note.
Straight road to oblivion.
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Ahhh... the sound of rainwater draining into my tank. :D excellent. I'm kinda jealous of the airport they got 1.75" yesterday I only got 0.52" :( but I've almost got an inch today and its still coming down :)!
Hows everyone today?
I'm going to try it, ya'll done sold me on the idea besides i kinda like coconut anyways I just got to buy it at the store i dont have any trees that produce coconuts here that i know of Thanks
Whats that dark dot in the clouds in that pic?
A ufo!!
Area of interest 2(N of PR):
Bret:
Area of interest 3(Africa):
Did they bring gifts :)
Thats me!!! lol its Bermuda
Crazy rainfall total for at Cat 1 storm, but just goes to show how dangerous any storm can be when it's such a huge size, relatively slow moving and slams into a mountainous area.
Hey Bermuda;how are you guys doing this morning?
i was just joking around with jason alittel but it didnt seem to work out just yet:)he still might bite though still eairly you know.
With the high situated the way it is (long and broad), FL is really going to have to watch it. Could be multiple strikes this year, IMO. Obviously many others would likely also be affected in this pattern.
I agree. As I pointed earlier this season this is not a repeat of last year's steering patterns. What concerns me is that some are still arguing that it is, but they fail to notice the strenght of the ridge this year.
Agreed. The AB high looks to be setting up to extend right up to the coast or just over it, and that 1016 line has been hovering overhead a lot of late. I just wrote in my blog that I would not be at all surprised of we got at least one hurricane strike in the NW / Central Bahamas this year, and if the pattern sets up the way it can, it certainly can mean 2 or 3 in the same general area [think 2004 or 2008]. The last few years we've been relatively fortunate; Ike and Tomas impacted our less populated southeast islands. I don't think we'll be that lucky if we get hit this year...
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The last ENSO season I can recall where Florida got smacked was 2005 and El Nino 2004
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