Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 15:43 GMT le 20 juillet 2011

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The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.


Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.


Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.

Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.

Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.

Jeff Masters

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886. JRRP
Link
NGP 18Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New sat pic Dora will go cat 5 i bet!
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmmm...

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 20 2011

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2011

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA PATTERN CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
A TROUGH CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST THAN THE MOST RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED DUE TO CONTINUITY AND SUPERIOR SKILL
SCORES DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS. TODAY’S OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE
MUCH BETTER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOLLOWING AN EXPECTED BRIEF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF A STRONG, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
THE OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF MODEL IS SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BUILDING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND INDICATES AN
EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA.


I dont see where it says the ridge sets up..the trough yes, but the ridge no
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Shawdowclown:

Suffering from loneliness, you are not alone,and yet you are alone, so very alone....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Kinda what I get out of it. Doesn't seem to be a real big trough to curve anything out to sea.

That might not be good for the gulf then. We don't need anything major here.
Member Since: 11 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Quoting wxmobilejim:

This could turn the wave toward Florida and the Gulf.


That's exactly what the ECMWF was picking up a couple of days ago. Showed a closed circulation moving NW thru the Eastern Bahamas and then suddenly turning West to WSW over Fl into the GOM. If this does in fact play out, things are going to get interesting in a hurry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
878. amd
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
HOLY COW!!


Dora is a very impressive system right now. Looking at some of the SHIPS output, the relatively large eye that can still tighten, and the fact that it is slowing down slightly, it could actually become a cat 5 hurricane tomorrow, IMHO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
i want window 8 beta so bad


Then just go out a get it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Has anyone else realized that one more storm in the Atlantic and we tie the count in the EPAC?


In terms of ACE though so far, the ATL is only 20% of the EPAC...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wolftribe2009:
Has anyone else realized that one more storm in the Atlantic and we tie the count in the EPAC?


Not overly suprising, in a La Nina/Neutral year you'd expect as much activity in the Atlantic, certainly all predictions for this season were as such. EPAC season starts a little earlier than the Atlantic one, so you'd expect the Atlantic to be a little behind, at this stage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


Sry your right and now back to the weather

:-p


That's okay, I only come here to read the comics anyway. :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Has anyone else realized that one more storm in the Atlantic and we tie the count in the EPAC?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HOLY COW!!
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
Quoting wxmobilejim:

This could turn the wave toward Florida and the Gulf.


Kinda what I get out of it. Doesn't seem to be a real big trough to curve anything out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:
The geek computer porn blog is over there ------------->

;>)


Sry your right and now back to the weather

:-p
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hmmmm...

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 20 2011

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2011

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA PATTERN CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
A TROUGH CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST THAN THE MOST RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED DUE TO CONTINUITY AND SUPERIOR SKILL
SCORES DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS. TODAY’S OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE
MUCH BETTER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOLLOWING AN EXPECTED BRIEF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF A STRONG, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
THE OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF MODEL IS SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BUILDING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND INDICATES AN
EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA.

This could turn the wave toward Florida and the Gulf.
Member Since: 11 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
From Lowercal's entry

STS-135 Landing Ground Tracks

Orbit 200

KSC

› Long-range ground track



› Mid-range ground track


› Close-range ground track
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Hmmmm...

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 20 2011

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2011

ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA PATTERN CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE 0Z AND 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
A TROUGH CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST THAN THE MOST RECENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREFERRED DUE TO CONTINUITY AND SUPERIOR SKILL
SCORES DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS. TODAY’S OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AGREE
MUCH BETTER WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
FOLLOWING AN EXPECTED BRIEF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, ALL
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A RETURN OF A STRONG, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
THE OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF MODEL IS SLIGHTLY FASTER IN BUILDING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND INDICATES AN
EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST
COAST WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
PERSISTENT TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
shadoclown you have wu-mail
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

When did you finish? The CPU u should have bought would be the i7 sandybridge, its great for OC, i have it at 4.2 24/7 without changing the voltage! BTW Your build is awsome, iv always wanted triple vid cards!How does that do on games? Also do you have liquid cooling? I would highly recommend it!


Thats an awesome overclock!...explains the 7.9 in the windows test....finished it about 6 months ago air cooled right now which is why i have not pushed it passed 3.7 I do have a waterblock from my old sys but need a bracket for the new motherboard these i7s overclock sooo easily as you say no voltage increases needed either.... as for gaming it shreds anything i throw at it with max graphics settings
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The geek computer porn blog is over there ------------->

;>)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
less then 1hr to go be for the next two
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:


thats a nice system I just finished building mine but I have not hit 7.9 on the processor or ram both are at 7.8 Hard drive at 6.2
Specs

core i7 980x 6 core overclocked to 3.7GHz
12gigs ddr3 running at 1866MHz
EVGA X58 3X SLI Classified Motherboard
3X EVGA GTX 480 Overclocked graphic cards
1500watt silverstone power supply
2 10000rpm sata drives in RAID 0

When did you finish? The CPU u should have bought would be the i7 sandybridge, its great for OC, i have it at 4.2 24/7 without changing the voltage! BTW Your build is awsome, iv always wanted triple vid cards!How does that do on games? Also do you have liquid cooling? I would highly recommend it!
Member Since: 22 juillet 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
You can really see the spin around 45W
Member Since: 11 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
Don the whine
or Don the twine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmobilejim:

Oh ok. Is that rare?



nop
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
Quoting FrankZapper:
My favorite show on TV is Dora The Explorer. I watch it with my daughter almost every day.
I hate Dore...
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Lol i will, i did not mention my HDD, that is 5.9 but everything is 7.9 other than that!


thats a nice system I just finished building mine but I have not hit 7.9 on the processor or ram both are at 7.8 Hard drive at 6.2
Specs

core i7 980x 6 core overclocked to 3.7GHz
12gigs ddr3 running at 1866MHz
EVGA X58 3X SLI Classified Motherboard
3X EVGA GTX 480 Overclocked graphic cards
1500watt silverstone power supply
2 10000rpm sata drives in RAID 0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




the HH is planing on flying in too are hurricane in the E PAC

Oh ok. Is that rare?
Member Since: 11 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231

Quoting TomTaylor:
Total Precipitable Water Loop?

Look at that spin at around -40 W and 12 N
Member Since: 23 mai 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 15
Quoting shadoclown45:
I love being ignored it feels great...
I don't have you on ignore.
Member Since: 14 août 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17485
851. wxmobilejim
22:47 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting TomTaylor:
Total Precipitable Water Loop?


Yes
Thank you I didn't know what it was called I will bookmark it for the future. Thanks again.
Member Since: 11 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
850. Levi32
22:46 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting shadoclown45:
Levi, Whats your take on the maximum strength Dora will achieve.


I honestly haven't really looked at Dora. I've been busy enough with the Atlantic, and she's not threatening land. I see she's already a major hurricane though.

Back after work.
Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
849. shadoclown45
22:46 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
i want window 8 beta so bad



Really? Its in beta, so you would have lots of bugs which means, crashes orr even better data errors, in conclusion wait until it is perfected.
Member Since: 27 juillet 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
848. Tazmanian
22:46 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting wxmobilejim:

What is it you want us to see??




the HH is planing on flying in too are hurricane in the E PAC
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362
847. Patrap
22:46 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Bret Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery Loop



Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery

The relative lack of environmental moisture around a tropical cyclone can adversely affect the deep convection and negatively impact the storm and result in weakening. Luckily there is several low earth orbiting satellites that provide estimates of the amount of water vapor in the atmospheric column, commonly referred to a total precipitable water (TPW). TPW estimates from a single satellite platform, however, often suffer from inadequate temporal coverage and poor refresh rates. To partially rectify this issue, the information from three Advanced Microwave Sounding Units (AMSU) on NOAA satellites and five Special Sensor Microwave Imagers (SSMI) on DOD satellites are combined via a blending algorithm described in Kidder and Jones (2007). Such a product has a refresh rate of approximately 6 hours and a spatial resolution of approximately 16km. This product shows the TPW around the tropical cyclone and to further enhance its utility the images are centered on the current storm location and when looped show TPW features moving to and from the storm center.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
846. DFWjc
22:45 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting shadoclown45:
I love being ignored it feels great...


..hugs SC45.... awww
Member Since: 19 juillet 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
845. wxmobilejim
22:45 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey all look what i found plzs look


000
NOUS42 KNHC 201445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT WED 20 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-050

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE DORA
NEAR 19.8N 110.0W AT 22/2000Z.
JWP




look plzs lol

What is it you want us to see??
Member Since: 11 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
844. TomTaylor
22:45 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting wxmobilejim:
I have a quick question. Can someone please post a link to the map that shows moisture content in the atlantic. I'm not sure that is what it is called. It is the map that has a lot of colors and usually a loop. It usually shows where spins are in the tropics. I hope someone can understand what I'm asking for. TIA
Total Precipitable Water Loop?

Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
841. TomTaylor
22:44 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

I love fry's!! Also im thinking of installing SSD, i got a 2TB hard drive and it is really appealing...but i like to game also so if i get one it will only have my OS on it.
two terabytes?

idk why people could need so much memory lol

unless you make movies or something that really eats up the hard drive.
Member Since: 24 août 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
840. Patrap
22:43 GMT le 20 juillet 2011


Enlargement
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
838. wxmobilejim
22:43 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
I have a quick question. Can someone please post a link to the map that shows moisture content in the atlantic. I'm not sure that is what it is called. It is the map that has a lot of colors and usually a loop. It usually shows where spins are in the tropics. I hope someone can understand what I'm asking for. TIA
Member Since: 11 mai 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 231
837. DFWjc
22:42 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

I love fry's!! Also im thinking of installing SSD, i got a 2TB hard drive and it is really appealing...but i like to game also so if i get one it will only have my OS on it.

That's what I did.. I have Win7 Ult 64bit and a few programs on it and still have like 30GBs left. Trying to get another to run them in RAID, but I'm happy with my 17 second start up time as of now.
Member Since: 19 juillet 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
836. Tazmanian
22:42 GMT le 20 juillet 2011
Quoting Levi32:


SSD = Solid-State Drive



oh ok
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115362

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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