Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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99L
If something were to develop, timing would have to be perfect in order for the system to re-curve. I don't know how he got that, could you explain Dr. Masters?
Though "Don" would be a tight squeeze into July cuase it would be nearing the end of July.
My new forecast for Bret's ACE:
2.5 to 2.82
Interesting, I must admit, 99L is looking better in the last few hours.
snicker,.. : )
As the Dr. said. it's running out of time.
Model intensities say it will level off and start weakening at 36 hours, so its safe to assume that's when it will reach the cooler SST's.
That's interesting, doesn't want anything to do with 99L.
yep, running out of time.
Sunburn, with its ultraviolet radiation burns, can significantly retard the
skin's ability to shed excess heat.
Link
One of my wife's co workers passed out yesterday after being in the Tanning Parlor during her lunch break. Not enough data to say tanning was the issue, but if UV and sun burn inhibits the skins ability to "cool", then I wonder if tanning might contribute.
ANY one have any knowledge of this?
TD maybe, TS doubtful
Can't resist.
1st paragraph: Is anyone seriously debating whether humans have effect on their climate? Of course we do. The question, as far as I can see, is to what extent.
2nd: Correct.
3rd: Credible link, please.
Last View
This image of the International Space Station was taken by Atlantis' STS-135 crew during a fly around as the shuttle departed the station on Tuesday, July 19, 2011. STS-135 is the final shuttle mission to the orbital laboratory.
Larger Image
I really don't understand what the NHC is waiting for...It has all the qualifications of a TD, and its not like its struggled with convection over the past 24 hours.
Winds: Check
Pressure: Check
Convection: Check
Organization: Check
I know, scary thought. We'll probably see multiple times with multiple storms at one time.
Yeah, it's definitely not a good day when the ECMWF is staring at you.
It's approaching 100/105 right now. Looks very nice, and should continue to strengthen and reach Category 3 status within the next 24 hours. Even though a stretch, it could reach Category 4 status.
...DORA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TOMORROW...SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
At what point is the world going to be over populated if it is not already?
If you consider the world as a very big complex "system" then the graph shows a very large "step change" in one of the inputs to the system. In all of my years of engineering, I have never seen a system that can take this kind of step change with out equally "large" output effects.
Twenty years ago, we were wondering how many pieces the ex-USSR was going to break up into, and how far they were going to fall technologically. Now WE are paying THEM to get into space...
I have one for you atmo. The Atacama desert. My prediction is that they do not get more than 2 inches of rain in the next two years. Impressed???
He's asking for sources to your facts. It is not an unreasonable request. You're making statements contrary to the majority of the evidence available. If you refuse to provide them, then don't be surprised to find your posts considered non-factual propaganda.
The Global Surface Temperature is Rising
Global average temperature is one of the most-cited indicators of global climate change, and shows an increase of approximately 1.4°F since the early 20th Century. The global surface temperature is based on air temperature data over land and sea-surface temperatures observed from ships, buoys and satellites. There is a clear long-term global warming trend, while each individual year does not always show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Ninos, La Ninas, and the eruption of large volcanoes. Notably, the 20 warmest years have all occurred since 1981, and the 10 warmest have all occurred in the past 12 years.
Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.
where is 90L ¿
Where were they going, Towards Dora?
They were headed towards bret, turned around, went north, and now are going back west... strange.
And now they are doing it again, anyone who has google earth know whats going on?
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