Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Well, I also would consider myself with that priviledge (cement tilt up constructed house) ... Though there are many out there (wood houses) who lost everything during Georges... The highest wind If I ain't wrong, was 111 mph registered in Dorado...
That happened in Vieques during Hugo. Residents say that no vegetation was left. Even garbage dissapeared...
Yes, I remember that in Georges one of my neighbors lost the roof of their second story house because it wasn't made of concrete.
In my house it's even difficult to hang a picture in the walls LOL! The concrete is that hard. :\
Mine too.... Tilt up cement houses burn drilling bits... Big problem to install "Tormenteras"..
The thing is that there is no way to escape... You have to bunker down and wait.
In New Orleans my sister and family drove all the way to Memphis to escape Katrina...
My typing mistake, Hugo was 1989...
Link
Seems like Dry Air injection from the NW did that...
Link
Bedtime...
I live in Naples. Assuming that I can stay awake until the Shuttle landing, should I be able to see the glow as it passes above or is too cool to glow by the time it passes overhead?
You should be able to see it this time around as the sun will be beginning to reflect off the shuttle. You have a 3 minute passing actually starting at 5:42 am, so you might get a great view.
850mb vort getting weaker and weaker.
AL, 03, 2011072106, , BEST, 0, 375N, 501W, 50, 1002, TS
A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
I've seen the NWS break form a few times, but its pretty rare to see the NHC do it. Especially for a major hurricane
That's twice this year for the epac and their season isn't even half way over. Although they are two to three times as common in the epac as they are in the Atlantic, annular hurricanes are still about a 2-3 out of hundred deal in the epac.
DORA DORA DORA THE EXPLORER!!!!!!!!!
lol
OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 49.1W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
awesomely beautiful, but deadly
Looks like Cindy's pulling one of Bret's eye-want-to-be tricks :P
Now forecast to go to 65mph also.
(Sorry for the lack of picture. I basically just used the camera as a microphone, knowing I wouldn't be able to catch the shuttle. The very bright spot in top center is the moon.)
friends, and lowercal, together, final scene.
tears and clapping for them all, the memories. I am old.
It wasn't where I expected it to be, but I followed it across the sky. The plasma trail is still visible.
Thanks. I added some video/audio...
I asume that the 00z models had anything significant developing,as I haven't seen them posted here. I am right about that?
The CATL wave had to fight off the great amount of dust and dry air that surrounds it. Latest sat photos are showing that the convection is trying to refire. That having said it will take sometime for any form of cyclogenesis, even if it is moving under an anticyclone. most of the models have backed out from development at this time. Even if the wave does not develop it will bring squally weather to the lesser antilles tomorrow and saturday.
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