Famine declared due to drought in Somalia; U.S. heat wave shifts east
The main rainy season rains have failed again in the Horn of Africa--the region of East Africa comprising Somalia, Kenya, and Ethiopia. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to today's official declaration that famine conditions now exist. The region is experiencing a humanitarian emergency with more than 2 million malnourished children needing lifesaving action. The Horn of Africa has two rainy seasons, a main rainy season in April/May, and then the "short rains" of October/November. The main 2010 April/May rainy season brought above average rains to the region. However, the October/November 2010 "short rains" failed, as did the April/May 2011 main rainy season rains. The failure of two consecutive rainy seasons is a devastating blow for East Africa. African countries are highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture for both employment and economic production, with agriculture accounting for more than 50% of gross domestic product and up to 90% of employment across much of the continent (World Development Indicators 2009, World Bank). One third of the population of Africa lives in drought-prone areas (World Water Forum, 2000), and about 25% of the population of Africa currently experiences high water stress. Remarkably, several nations in East Africa have been selling their land to other countries to raise food for export in recent years. These nations include Ethiopia and Sudan, who both receive massive food aid from the U.N. World Food Program. According to the fascinating and sobering book, World on the Edge by Lester Brown, in January 2009, Saudi Arabia celebrated the arrival of the first shipment of rice on land they had acquired in Ethiopia, where the World Food Program was feeding 5 million people at the time. Saudi Arabia has been actively buying land in other countries to raise crops since the recent failure of agriculture in their country after they pumped their aquifers dry. India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all brought land to grow crops in Sudan, which was the site of the World Food Program's largest famine relief effort in 2010. The world is running short of food, and nations that cannot feed themselves are aggressively competing to buy land to grow food where land costs are low, like East Africa.
Figure 1. Rainfall over most of the Horn of Africa between February and July 2011 was 2 - 8 inches (50 - 200 mm) below average, leading to a deadly drought in the region. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
Another day of dangerous heat in the Midwest
The dangerous Central U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to the Midwest today, and will also begin bringing temperatures in the mid-90s with high humidity to much of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100°F in sixteen states in the center of the country on Tuesday, with the dangerous heat extending from Texas northwards to North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. At least thirteen deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The heat index hit a torrid 129°F at Newton, Iowa on Tuesday, and a heat index in excess of 120° was recorded at several locations in North Dakota, Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Figure 2. Predicted maximum heat index for Friday, July 22, 2011. Portions of 35 states are predicted to have a heat index in excess of 100°, with a heat index in excess of 115° expected over large portions of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. Image credit: NOAA.
Heat wave headed to the Eastern U.S.
The extreme heat will shift slowly eastwards this week, peaking in Chicago today, Detroit and Pittsburgh on Thursday, and New York City and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. This will no doubt stimulate some predictable quotes on global warming. The heat will remain in place over the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post.
Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to spin off the U.S. East Coast, but is a weak storm with 50 mph winds, and is not expected to affect any land areas. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots, and is expected to remain in the high range for the next three days. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to keep Bret from strengthening, and the storm should slowly decay as it heads out to sea over the next few days.
Invest 99L no threat
Satellite imagery suggests that a low pressure system near 34N, 55W, about 500 miles east of Bermuda, is close to tropical depression strength. This system, dubbed Invest 99L, has been given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. The storm is headed east-northeastwards out to sea, and is not a threat to any land areas. The storm will move over cool ocean waters below 25°C by Thursday morning, so it has just a short window of time to develop.
An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 45W, midway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is currently generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. However, this wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and it is possible it could develop once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week. The last few runs of the UKMET model have shown development of this wave by Tuesday over the Bahamas. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models show that this wave will become a strong tropical disturbance by Tuesday over the Bahamas, while the GFS model shows no development. If this wave does develop, it may recurve before hitting the U.S., since the models agree that there will be a large trough of low pressure present over the U.S. East Coast early next week.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Stormtop? Is he the blogger that was banned last year? Storm? The USCG dude? He has a new site, but I won't mention it here tho.
Nah, you're confusing him with StormW
well it looks like I was right on with Cindy's intensity. I stated in my Wunderground blog yesterday that I expected her to reach 50-60 MPH. I also see that Bret continues to stick around. I wouldn't be surprised to see him around for a couple more days at least.
I think we will have an invest for the CATL wave within the next 48 hours (More likely the next 24 hours). Computer models have been stating that organization is expected to start once it reaches the northern antils.
Do any of you feel skeptical about the turn to the WNW? Do you have a feeling it might stay in the Caribbean?
Is there model support for the Tropical Wave in the CATL? TIA
Been looking, but not sure if I'm looking in the right places.
@1597
We are all wrong sometimes. You just gotta say when you are.
you mean like giving away someone's personal information from Facebook?
StormW yeah that is him. I'm glad it's not the same person, cause I have a great respect for StormW and it would be lost if he was comming here to be a Troll under a new Name. StormW wasn't always right in his forecast, but he was a nice person who was always eager to answer questions. I still see his new blog and read his predictions, although i like Levi's blog much better, especially the video.
I was telling the same yesterday. I think this TW is taking a southerly track.
I am a bit skeptical. Previous runs had it crossing FL as a stronger system and the latest runs changed for it not to develop as strong as before and recurving to the north. I guess they are detecting a stronger trough now, but the problem I have with this is that this trough business is so uncertain in the long range that to me everything would be fair game. I guess I will keep monitoring the Models to see if a trend starts to develop.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 995.0mb/ 47.0kt
Now ACE at 5.28(yesturday, 4.08)
Arlene: 1.63
Bret: 2.82
Cindy: 0.83
I see a due west movement.
The heat index (we call it Humidex here) in Canada's largest city could get up to the equivalent of 120 Farenheit today, while the UV rating is off the charts. Better turn on the air conditioning, but keep it at a high temperature to save power. After all, an indoor temperature of 80F is still 40F cooler than what it feels like outside.
Toronto's highest recorded temperature is 38.3C, while the predicted high for the city is 38C today. I live in Southern Ontario...I don't have air conditioning. Horray!
I remember him now, I joined WU in Sepetember 2005 unlike what it says here that I joined in August 2007. I remember him posting before. Anyway when Katrina happened I was in the Navy stationed in Jacksonville Florida, but my wife and Kids where living in Gautier MS. so I followed the storm very closely. I had access to a Navy site which is very similar to this one and which I used to brief pilots about weather conditions for their preflight briefings. Katrina Killed two pilots in Jacksonville days before hitting MS the outer bands reached all the way there and weather was very unstable. I did predict that it would hit Gulfport MS which is not too far where it actually hit, but I would never posted anything if I was a member of WU because I do not believe that was my place. I'm not a professional so this sort of prediction can be irresponsible I leave it to them. I did tell my wife to grab the kids and get the heck out of there which she did.
Seem like everyone storm this season attempted to get an eye...
Alrene at landfall check pics(its not deep and cleared But you can see it)
Bret Eye like feature developed
Cindy Possible Eye like feature developing...
Hmmm.... interesting...
Link
THhe ECMWF has been showing the wave developing in the lesser antils before hitting south florida and moving into the gulf next week. The CMC was showing the storm curving northward and getting very close to North Carolina.
Yea I saw that the wave hasn't moved northward much and was wondering about that. We have to watch the wave behind it too. It is farther south and the ECMWF was showing it developing once it reached the Eastern Caribbean.
I disagree with the 0%, if they mentione dit as ) than they shouldn't even mention it at all. I actually would say 10-20% but I more likely think they would mention it later tonight after DMAX
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